YCLOAK

Chinese state media are reacting to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade actions against China in diverse ways. While denouncing the U.S. leader’s actions, Beijing is also using its media to calm markets and express concern about the impact on the Chinese economy.

An editorial in the Communist Party’s People’s Daily said that by raising tariffs and then offering negotiations, the Trump administration is trying to use “carrot-and-stick diplomacy to bully China into unilateral trade concessions.” The paper went on to say “China will eventually defeat the trade blackmail of the U.S. and it is impossible to force China into surrender to the U.S. coercion.”

However, a Chinese senior official attached to the country’s Supreme Court recently expressed worry that the trade friction with the U.S. would result in bankruptcies for state-owned companies.

“It is hard to predict how this trade war will develop and to what extent,” Du Wanhua, deputy director of an advisory committee to the Supreme People’s Court said in an article also in the People’s Daily.

“But one thing is sure: if the U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese imports following an order of $60 billion, $200 billion, or even $500 billion, many Chinese companies will go bankrupt,” he said.

Ineffective retaliation

Beijing recently slapped additional duties ranging from five to 25 percent on $60 billion worth of American goods. This was in response to Trump administration’s proposal of a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.

Experts said China has realized that retaliatory action would not persuade the U.S. President to stop his trade actions.

“They switched gear a bit because, I think, they realized that they have the weaker hand here in terms of their ability to retaliate, partly because they import far less from the U.S. than the U.S. imports from China, but also [because] a portion of [goods] they import from the United States is, you know, high-tech that are quite difficult to import from elsewhere,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics told VOA.

Washington says its actions are aimed at correcting the level playing field because the U.S. suffers from a severe trade deficit in its business with China.

Reassuring markets

Chinese officials are trying to reassure markets and the local population that the U.S. moves would have little impact. Huang Libin, a spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently said there has not been any significant impact on industrial output.

“We hear complaints from [Chinese] companies that U.S. clients have requested a suspension of orders and deliveries, but so far it has had only a limited impact on the industrial sector,” he said.

The state-run Global Times, responded to White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow’s remarks that China should not underestimate Trump’s resolve, saying that China was not afraid of “sacrificing short-term interests”. “China has time to fight to the end. Time will prove that the U.S. eventually makes a fool of itself,” the paper said.

The official China Daily has joined government officials in an effort to reassure the market. “Market participants foresee a relatively stable Chinese currency in the near term, without fear of impacts from the U.S.-China trade dispute. They expect solid economic growth momentum amid policy fine-tuning,” it said.

“Leading China’s economy on a stable and far-reaching path, we have confidence and determination,” another commentary in the main edition of the People’s Daily said.

Another reason China is worried is because Washington’s actions have come when the domestic Chinese economy is going through a bad time. The last three months have seen a series of corporate defaults besmirching China’s reputation for many fewer loan defaults as compared to most developed countries.

“[The] economy is now slowing and balance sheets are coming under strain after they tightened monetary policy last year and pushed up borrowing costs. This is the main reason why we are seeing this uptrend in bankruptcies and uptrend in corporate bond defaults,” Evans-Pritchard said. “I think the main driver is domestic. Obviously, the U.S. tariffs won’t help and they are going to cause some damage,” he said.

In its latest report, Capital Economics said that it would be naive to dismiss the possibility of financial instability given the rapid rise in debt levels in the country over the past decade. Chinese banks face the grave emerging scenario of bad loans and non-performing assets weighing heavily on their balance sheets, it said.

 
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Longtime PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi will step down as the top executive and the world’s second-largest food and beverage company.

Nooyi, who was born in India, is a rarity on Wall Street as a woman and a minority leading a Fortune 100 company. She oversaw the company during a turbulent time in the industry that has forced PepsiCo, Coca-Cola Co., Campbell Soup Co. and Mondelez International Inc. to shake up product portfolios that had been the norm for decades as families seek healthier choices.

 

Nooyi, 62, has been with PepsiCo Inc. for 24 years and has held the top job for 12.

 

Ramon Laguarta, who has been with the company for more than two decades, will take over as CEO in October, the company said Monday. Nooyi will remain as chairman until early next year.

 

“Today is a day of mixed emotions for me. This company has been my life for nearly a quarter century and part of my heart will always remain here,” Nooyi said in a prepared statement. “But I am proud of all we’ve done to position PepsiCo for success, confident that Ramon and his senior leadership team will continue prudently balancing short-term and long-term priorities, and excited for all the great things that are in store for this company.”

 

Nooyi took over as CEO in October 2006. Between 2007 and 2017, revenue at Pepsico has risen about 61 percent.

 

The 54-year-old Laguarta has held various positions in his 22 years at PepsiCo, which is based in Purchase, New York. He currently serves as president, overseeing global operations, corporate strategy, public policy and government affairs. He previously served as CEO of the Europe Sub-Saharan Africa region. Prior to joining PepsiCO, Laguarta worked at confectionary company Chupa Chups.

 

Laguarta will be the sixth CEO in PepsiCo’s history, with all of them coming from within the company.

 

 
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Russia engaged in more extensive oil exports to North Korea than had been previously reported, by setting up an illicit trade network that is likely still being used today to evade United Nations sanctions, according a South Korean research organization.

A recent report issued by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul used Russian customs data to document how “one North Korean state enterprise purchased 622,878 tons of Russian oil worth $238 million,” between 2015 and 2017.”

While China is North Korea’s main oil supplier, the ASAN estimate for Russian oil exports to North Korea is significantly higher than the $25 million in sales for the same period that was reported by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) in Seoul.

“Smuggling has always been an important element in the cross-border trade between North Korea and it’s important allies. What the Chinese government and the Russian government to a lesser extent have been doing is to turn a blind eye to these activities,” said Go Myong-Hyun, a North Korea analyst with the Asan Institute For Policy Studies in Seoul.

Russian evasions

The Asan report comes amid allegations that Russia potentially violated international sanctions imposed on North Korea by granting thousands of new work permits to North Korean laborers. Moscow had denied any such actions.

The Trump administration also imposed targeted U.S sanctions on a Russian bank for allegedly doing business with a person blacklisted for involvement with North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

On Friday U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley called the allegations against Russia, “very troubling.” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on “the Russians and all countries to abide by the U.N. Security Council resolutions and enforce sanctions on North Korea,” while attending the ASEAN Regional Forum in Singapore on Saturday.

United Nations sanctions imposed in September of 2017 prohibit member countries from “providing work authorizations” permits to North Korean workers.

In December of 2017 the U.N. Security Council further strengthened the sanctions to cut North Korean oil imports by a third, and to impose a total export ban on North Korea’s $3 billion coal and other mineral industries, its $800 million clothing manufacturing output, and its lucrative seafood industry.

Shell companies

The ASAN report is centered on the activities of the Independent Petroleum Company (IPC), a Russian firm that the U.S. Treasury Department targeted in June 2017 for violating restrictions on selling oil to North Korea. IPC has since changed its name. 

IPC was found to have sold large quantities of oil to Russian affiliated companies, such as the Pro-Gain Group Corporation (PGGC) that was actually operating on behalf of North Korea’s state owned Foreign Trade Bank. The North Korean bank has been under U.S. sanctions since 2013.

“The entities involved tried to cover up the transactions by falsifying destination countries for the purchases,” said the ASAN report entitled The Rise of Phantom Traders.

The report notes that PGGC is owned by Taiwan citizen Tsang Yung Yuan. Tsang was sanctioned earlier this year by the U.S. for facilitating North Korean coal exports using a Russia-based North Korean broker. PGGC has headquarters listed both in Taipei and Samoa.

North Korea has also been accused of conducting illicit ship-to-ship transfers of oil, and to conceal these operations by disabling the Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder of vessels in order to hide their location. There have also been reports of North Korea changing vessel names and identification numbers, even painting over or altering the numbers on the ships’ exteriors.

Rajin-Khasan Exemption

A large number of oil shipments were also delivered to the Russian-North Korean border village of Khasan, which is connected by rail to the North Korean port terminal at Rajin.

The Rajin-Khasan rail project was exempted from U.N. sanctions to allow Russia to use the North Korean seaport to export Russian coal.

Trade records show that oil deliveries arriving in Khasan were on their way to China, but the report suggests it is more likely North Korea was the final destination. Since 2015, the ASAN report says, only PGGC and Velmur, two companies with ties to North Korea, listed Khasan as the point of delivery for oil shipments. 

According to the ASAN report, Moscow and Pyongyang are likely exploiting the Rajin-Khasan rail exemption to evade restrictions on North Korean oil imports.

In 2016, South Korea suspended its participation in the Rajin-Khasan rail project to comply with U.S. unilateral sanctions imposed on North Korea trade.

Recently some officials in Seoul have called for these sanctions affecting the Rajin-Khasan Project to be lifted, so that investment can proceed in connecting South Korean rail both to North Korea, and to the intentional railway system beyond that can reach Europe.

Sanctions effectiveness

The sanctions are intended to cut North Korea off from foreign currency and materials needed for weapons production, and to impose economic pain on the leadership to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear and ballistic missile development programs.

Despite increased reports of sanctions evasions, Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea analyst with the Sejong Institute in South Korea, says the recent report of an 88 percent decline in North Korean trade in the first quarter of this year indicates the economic situation there is in dire condition.

“If the sanctions from the U.N. Security Council continue, economic breakdown in North Korea will be inevitable,” said Cheong.

Talks between Washington and Pyongyang have made little significant progress toward ending the North’s nuclear program since June, when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his commitment to denuclearization during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore.

The U.S. insists that the North completely end it nuclear weapons program before any concessions are granted, while Pyongyang wants early sanctions relief.

On Sunday Pompeo said that North Korean Foreign Minster Ri Yong Ho reiterated a “very clear” commitment to denuclearize when the two met at the ASEAN conference in Singapore.

Lee Yoon-jee contributed to this report.
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Washington is observing the latest escalation in tensions between the United States and its trading partners, with China threatening to slap tariffs on more than 5,000 American-made products totaling $60 billion. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports, Beijing’s announcement came after the Trump administration proposed raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, continuing a tit-for-tat trade battle that is alarming many in the U.S. business community and dividing the Republican Party.
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British Trade Minister Liam Fox said “intransigence” from the European Union was pushing Britain toward a no-deal Brexit, in an interview published on Saturday by the Sunday Times.

With less than eight months until Britain quits the EU, the government has yet to agree a divorce deal with Brussels and has stepped up planning for the possibility of leaving the bloc without any formal agreement.

Fox, a promiment Brexit supporter in Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet, put the odds of Britain leaving the European Union without agreeing upon a deal over their future relationship at 60-40.

“I think the intransigence of the commission is pushing us towards no deal,” Fox told the Times after a trade mission in Japan.

“We have set out the basis in which a deal can happen, but if the EU decides that the theological obsession of the unelected is to take priority over the economic well-being of the people of Europe, then it’s a bureaucrats’ Brexit — not a people’s Brexit — [and] then there is only going to be one outcome.”

It was up to the EU whether it wanted to put “ideological purity” ahead of the real economy, Fox said.

If Britain fails to agree the terms of its divorce with the EU and leaves without even a transition agreement to smooth its exit, it would revert to trading under World Trade Organization rules in March 2019.

Most economists think this would cause serious harm to the world’s No. 5 economy as trade with the EU, Britain’s largest market, would become subject to tariffs.

Supporters of Brexit say there may be some short-term pain for Britain’s $2.9 trillion economy, but that in the long term it will prosper when cut free from the EU, which some of them cast as a failing German-dominated experiment in European integration.

On Friday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the chances of a no-deal Brexit had become “uncomfortably high.”
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China’s targeting of U.S. liquefied natural gas and crude oil exports opens a new front in the trade war between the two countries, at a time when the White House is trumpeting growing U.S. energy export  prowess.

China included LNG for the first time in its list of proposed tariffs on Friday, the same day that its biggest U.S. crude oil buyer, Sinopec, suspended U.S. crude oil imports due to the dispute, according to three sources familiar with the situation.

On Friday, China announced retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, and warned of further measures, signaling it will not back down in a protracted trade war with Washington.

That could cast a shadow over U.S. President Donald Trump’s energy dominance ambitions. The administration has repeatedly said it is eager to expand fossil fuel supplies to global allies, while Washington is rolling back domestic regulations to encourage more oil and gas production.

“The juxtaposition here is clear: It is hard to become an energy superpower when one of the biggest energy consumers in the world is raising barriers to consume that energy. It makes it very difficult,” said Michael Cohen, head of energy markets research at Barclays.

The U.S. is the world’s largest exporter of fuels such as gasoline and diesel, and is poised to become one of the largest exporters of LNG by 2019. U.S. LNG exports were worth $3.3 billion in 2017. China is the world’s biggest crude oil importer.

China had curtailed its imports of U.S. LNG over the last two months, even before its formal inclusion in the list of potential tariffs. It had also become the largest buyer of U.S. crude oil outside of Canada, but Kpler, which tracks worldwide oil shipments, shows crude cargoes to China have also dropped

off in recent months.

It comes at a time when the United States has several large-scale LNG export facilities under construction, and after Trump’s late 2017 trip to China that included executives from U.S. LNG companies.

China became the world’s second-biggest LNG importer in 2017, as it buys more gas in order to wean the country off dirty coal to reduce pollution.

“This will not affect the trade but will simply make gas more expensive to Chinese consumers,” said Charif Souki, chairman of Tellurian Inc, one of several companies seeking to build a new LNG export terminal.

China, which purchased almost 14 percent of all U.S. LNG shipped between February 2016 and May 2018, has taken delivery from just one vessel that left the United States in June and none so far in July, compared with 17 in the first five months of the year.

“The U.S. gas industry will be much harder hit by this as China imports only a small volume whereas U.S. suppliers see China as a major future market,” said Lin Boqiang, professor on energy studies at Xiamen University in China.

Crude exports to China

Meanwhile, according to Kpler, crude exports to China dropped to an estimated 226,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, after reaching a record 445,000 bpd in March. Sinopec, through its Unipec trading arm, is the largest buyer of U.S. crude.

China would likely hike purchases from Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq if the tariffs slowed U.S. flows, said Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency.

There will be “others who will be offering barrels to China, so it could find itself able to replace lost volumes from the U.S.,” Atkinson said.

With LNG demand expected to skyrocket over the next 12 to 18 months, there are still some two dozen firms seeking to build new LNG export terminals in the United States and tariffs may limit their ability to secure sufficient buyers to finance their proposed projects.

“Cheniere continues to see China as an important growth market and LNG as a “win-win” between the United States and China,” said Eben Burnham-Snyder, a spokesman at Cheniere Energy Inc, which owns one of the two LNG export terminals currently operating in the United States. He added they do not see tariffs as productive.
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George Kamau Githome uses a feather duster to clean off hardware and bootleg movies displayed for sale at his kiosk in Mathare, one of Nairobi, Kenya’s largest slums.

Githome and his family of 10 kids recently lost everything they owned in a fire. But he was able to rebuild because he had purchased micro-insurance, a new product making inroads among small-scale African farmers and business owners.

“When they came, they took photos, and saw how helpless I was. I had nothing,” he said. “Then they paid off my loan and supported me with something small. I started this business you see out here and the result you see inside.”

Most African farmers and small businesses operate with no way to protect themselves if disaster strikes. Insurers have been slow to tailor their products to the African continent, experts say, and their methods of operation, using complex contracts distributed through networks of agents, tends to only reach the urban elite.

But that may be starting to change. A handful of companies are now offering inexpensive, tech-driven micro-insurance and are making it easy for ordinary Africans to sign up.

 

The company Githome used, MicroEnsure, offers micro-insurance to small-business owners, ranging from farmers in the bush to small kiosk owners in downtown Nairobi.

 

The East Africa regional director for MicroEnsure, Kiereini Kirika, says mobile technology makes micro-insurance cheaper and easy to use.

“We enable them to be able to enroll as simple as using their mobile phone just by dialing a particular short code on their phone and then registering their product just by using their first name and their last name,” he said.

Henry Jaru, a smallholder farmer in northern Nigeria, is buying micro-insurance from another company, Pula, to protect his family farm from the impacts of poor rainfall, army worm infestations and other threats to their crops.

“Normally by this time the crops would have gone far but you see we’re still planting some of them,” he said. “So I think, we’re hoping that [will protect us if] we experience any shortcoming from the rain or the worms this year.”

 

Pula insures groups of farmers, using publicly available satellite data to track weather patterns, assess the risk and set prices.

 

“When Pula came into the country, they came with the idea of an index insurance, which means that you don’t need to necessarily visit every smallholder farmers,” said Samson Ajibola, Pula’s senior project manager in Nigeria. “You can insure aggregation of farmers under just one policy without necessarily needing to visit each of them.”

Pula also bundles the policies into small loans or purchases of fertilizer so small-hold farmers are automatically insured.

 

But older farmers, like Jaru’s father Thomas, are still skeptical because of bad experiences with insurance companies.

 

“Generally when the time comes for them to pay you, indemnify you, you will not find them,” said Thomas Jaru. “They begin to show you the small print — you didn’t do this, you didn’t do that out of the policy. So, it can ruin the whole thing and people get discouraged.”

 

Micro-insurance providers hope their services can change that perception  and turn a profit while giving Africa’s small farmers and businesses some protection if and when things go wrong.
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