Mexico Unsure If It Will Finish NAFTA Talks with US in Aug.

Mexico’s economy minister on Wednesday said that Mexico and the United States may not meet an August goal to finish bilateral talks to revamp the NAFTA trade deal, which is beset by disagreements over automobile trade rules and other issues.

Top Mexican officials started their fourth week of talks with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington over a new North American Free Trade Agreement.

Asked if the August goal was still viable, Guajardo said, “That is why we are here. We are fully engaged. We don’t know if there will be a successful conclusion.”

The U.S.-Mexico talks resumed in July, without Canada, after negotiations involving all three members of the $1.2 trillion trade bloc stalled in June.

Guajardo said on Wednesday that he had spoken with Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on the telephone and was “hopeful” Canada could soon hold trilateral NAFTA talks with the United States and Mexico.

Guajardo was joined by Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray, Mexico’s chief NAFTA negotiator Kenneth Smith, and Jesus Seade, the designated chief trade negotiator of incoming Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Smith said Mexico and the United States were “working well” on the most difficult issues.

Mexico and Washington have been discussing rules for the automotive sector, which has been a major point of contention between the two countries.

The United States has sought tougher rules on what percentage of a vehicle’s components need to be built in the NAFTA region to avoid tariffs, as well as demanding that a certain number of cars and trucks be made in factories paying at least $16 an hour.

New sticking points emerged last week over President Donald Trump’s threat to impose steep automotive tariffs.

Guajardo said the teams had not yet touched the issue of a U.S. proposed sunset clause that would kill NAFTA after five years if it is not renegotiated again. Both Mexico and Canada have said they reject the measure.

Five ‘Crazy Rich Asian’ Ways to Splash Your Cash in Singapore

Singapore is the setting for new Hollywood movie ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ – an adaptation of a best-selling novel that explores the insatiable consumerism of new money and old-world opulence in a continent producing more billionaires than anywhere else.

While the low-tax financial hub is often called a playground for the rich, Singapore’s wealthy tend to live a more conservative, low-key life than Hong Kong’s showy socialites or Macau’s high-rollers.

In step with the film’s release in the United States on Wednesday and ahead of its release in the city-state next week, here are five ways to spend your cash in Singapore.

  1. Orchid-shaped supercars

Cars in Singapore are some of the most expensive in the world, owing to huge government taxes aimed at limiting their number in the tiny island-state.

That doesn’t stop the super-rich – Ferrari, Maserati and Lamborghini are commonly sighted. When a Singaporean character in Kevin Kwan’s book, Goh Peik Lin, moves to America to study she immediately buys a Porsche saying they are “such a bargain.”

For the super-rich patriot, Singapore-based firm Vanda Electrics has designed an electric supercar – Dendrobium. Its roof and doors open in sync to resemble the orchid that is native to Singapore and after which the vehicle is named.

A show car, built by the technology arm of the Williams Formula One team, was unveiled last year. It was originally estimated to cost around 3 million euros ($3.44 million) before tax, although Vanda Electrics advised the final price will likely be lower.

  1. Yachts with submarines

Yachts are an affordable alternative to such supercars.

“Impulse buys of luxury items such as yachts are becoming more common” said Phill Gregory, the Singapore head of yacht dealers Simpson Marine, who sell everything from sports boats to super yachts costing tens of millions of dollars.

Gregory said Singapore-based clients have some of the most sophisticated tastes and an eye for style: sometimes he flies them to Europe to deck out their yacht with luxury furniture from the artisans of Milan or world-famous Carrara marble straight from the quarries in Tuscany.

Others have more unusual requests. These include a bespoke ‘beach club style’ lounge area set underneath a shimmering swimming pool, helipads or even a space to park a small submarine or sea-plane.

  1. 999 roses

The iconic Marina Bay Sands hotel – which resembles a giant surfboard perched on three tall columns – features prominently in the film’s trailer.

The hotel features the invitation-only Chairman’s suite – the largest in Singapore – which has its own gym, hair salon, and karaoke room, and according to some media reports costs over $15,000 a night. There is no publicly available price.

The likes of former British soccer star David Beckham and Bollywood actor Shah Rukh Khan have stayed at the hotel.

George Roe, director of hotel operations at Marina Bay Sands, said he has had some unusual requests from his guests including organizing the delivery of 999 roses to a residential address in Singapore as a surprise.

  1. Rare beef

“You do realize Singapore is the most food obsessed country on the planet?,” Nick Young, the very well-heeled protagonist of ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ tells his girlfriend Rachel Chu ahead of their trip to the city-state.

Even hawker stalls hold Michelin stars in Singapore but there’s no shortage of places for the super-rich to get their fix.

The restaurant CUT by Wolfgang Puck is the only one in Singapore to offer Hokkaido snow beef – which is even scarcer than Kobe beef – through an exclusive arrangement with a private reserve in Japan.

Only two cattle are harvested from the reserve every month, with CUT receiving about 20-30 steaks a month – a chunk of which goes to regulars who visit the restaurant every time it comes on the menu, said general manager Paul Joseph. The current price is S$330 ($240) for a modest 170 gram serving.

  1. Gold tea

Forget wearing gold – in Singapore you can drink it. 

Boutique Singaporean tea company TWG Tea claims to sell one of the world’s most expensive teas – a white tea plated with 24-karat gold which retails at S$19,000 ($14,000) a kilo.

The Grand Golden Yin Zhen is described as a “glimpse of the divine in a teacup”, and the gold is said to have anti-oxidant properties that revitalize and rejuvenate the skin.

In Chinese Port City, Japan’s Toyota Lays Foundation to Ramp Up Sales

Toyota is likely to make 120,000 more cars a year in the Chinese port city  of Tianjin as part of a medium-term strategy that’s gathering pace as China-Japan ties improve, said four company insiders with knowledge of the matter.

The Japanese auto maker’s plan to boost annual production capacity by about a quarter in the port city will lay the foundation to increase sales in China to two million vehicles per year, a jump of over 50 percent, the four sources said.

The Tianjin expansion signals Toyota’s willingness to start adding significant manufacturing capacity in China with the possibility of one or two new assembly plants in the world’s biggest auto market, the sources said. Car imports could also increase, they said.

The move comes at a time when China’s trade outlook with the United States appears fraught and uncertain.

Toyota plans to significantly expand its sales networks and focus more on electric car technologies as part of the strategy, the sources said, declining to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media.

Toyota sold 1.29 million vehicles in China last year and while sales are projected at 1.4 million this year, “capacity constraints” have restricted stronger growth, the sources said.

Over 500,000 vehicles a year

Toyota’s manufacturing hub in Tianjin currently has the capacity to produce 510,000 vehicles a year, while Toyota as a whole, between two joint ventures, has overall capacity to churn out 1.16 million vehicles a year.

Manufacturing capacity numbers provided by automakers are called straight-time capacity without overtime. With overtime, a given assembly plant can produce 20 to 30 percent more than its capacity.

According to two Tianjin government websites last week, Toyota has been given regulatory approval by the municipal government’s Development and Reform Commission to pursue its expansion.

The two websites — including the official website for the Tianjin development district where Toyota’s production hub is based — said the Japanese automaker plans to expand its Tianjin base to be able to manufacture 10,000 all-electric battery cars and 110,000 so-called plug-in electric hybrids annually. It wasn’t immediately clear when Toyota will be able to start producing those additional cars.

A Beijing-based Toyota spokesman declined to comment. The Tianjin facilities, which produces cars such as the Toyota Corolla and Vios cars, are owned and operated by one of Toyota’s joint ventures in China.

The venture with FAW in Tianjin plans to invest 1.76 billion yuan ($257 million) for the expansion, according to the two Tianjin websites.

Historical backlash 

China is sometimes a market difficult to operate for Japanese companies because of historical reasons.

In 2012, cars sold by Toyota and other Japanese automakers were battered when protests erupted across China after diplomatic spats over disputed islets known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan.

Since then, Toyota has emphasised steady growth rather than taking on risky expansion projects.

According to the four sources, Toyota’s attitude towards China began changing markedly after an official visit to Japan by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in May.

During the visit, Li toured Toyota’s facilities on the northern island of Hokkaido, and was escorted by Toyota’s family scion and chief executive Akio Toyoda.

Toyoda has since sought to boost his company’s presence in China, a vision that had culminated in an active effort to identify specific ways to do just that, according to the four sources.

They said aside from boosting capacity, Toyota is also looking at the possibility to significantly expand its distribution networks for the mainstream Toyota and premium Lexus brands.

Timing is perfect for Toyota

It wasn’t immediately clear how significant a distribution network expansion Toyota is planning for both brands. Currently, Toyota has more than 1,300 stores for the Toyota brand and nearly 190 for its Lexus luxury cars.

The timing for the China expansion couldn’t be better. Earlier this year, Toyota was able to finally launch a couple of much anticipated, potentially high-volume subcompact sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) — two China-market versions of the Toyota C-HR crossover SUV which hit showrooms in the United States last year.

The C-HR variants are relatively small crossover SUVs that other manufacturers, most notably Japan’s Honda, have leveraged to grow sales rapidly and sell more cars in China than its much bigger rival Toyota. Honda sold 1.44 million vehicles in China last year.

Benefit for Lexus

Lexus is also deemed likely to benefit from a windfall from growing trade tensions between China and the United States.

In retaliation for U.S. trade actions, China raised tariffs on automobiles imported from the United States in early July to 40 percent, which, among other things, has forced Tesla, BMW, as well as Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz to raise prices on certain U.S. — built vehicles, such as the hot-selling BMW X5 and X6 crossover sport-utility vehicles.

One likely consequence for those brands is a sales fall, a profit squeeze, or both.

By contrast, all Lexus cars Toyota sells in China are brought in from Japan and benefit from a much lower tariff rate of 15 percent levied on non-U.S. produced car imports.

Lawyer: US Youth Activists Will Appeal Setback to Climate Lawsuit

The dismissal of a lawsuit filed by young people claiming government climate policy falls short will be appealed and marks a minor setback in pursuing legal action on behalf of youth and their rights, experts said.

The legal complaint arguing that the state of Washington must do more to cut carbon emissions was dismissed Tuesday by a judge who said it was a matter for politicians, not courts.

The judge’s ruling marked the first time a court has dismissed a case filed by youth demanding authorities ramp up efforts to curb climate change by arguing their constitutional rights to due process are being violated, experts said.

A half-dozen similar cases have been filed in states including Florida and Alaska, said Our Children’s Trust, a youth advocacy group that provides legal assistance.

Tougher plan sought

The Washington complaint, filed in February, asked that a statewide target to emit 50 percent fewer greenhouse gases by 2050 be invalidated in favor of more ambitious goals, court documents said.

The dismissal will be appealed, lawyer Andrea Rodgers of Our Children’s Trust told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Scientific consensus holds that the emission of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels is the main cause of global warming.

Washington Superior Court Judge Michael Scott wrote in his dismissal that he hoped the activists “will not be discouraged,” but Rodgers said they were “devastated” and wanted to “present their constitutional claims in a court of law.”

Several of the cases by young people base their arguments on their rights to fair treatment and due process under the U.S. Constitution.

The remaining cases could still be effective in forcing authorities to strengthen climate change regulations, said Katherine Trisolini, a professor of environmental law at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.

“I wouldn’t give up on the courts yet,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Climate activists are particularly optimistic about a federal case, Juliana v. United States, brought by 21 young activists who say officials violated their rights by failing to address carbon pollution adequately.

Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a bid by President Donald Trump’s administration to halt the lawsuit, filed in 2015.

No Special Rules Needed for Now-Common Gene Therapy Studies

U.S. health officials are eliminating special regulations for gene therapy experiments, saying that what was once exotic science is quickly becoming an established form of medical care with no extraordinary risks.

A special National Institutes of Health oversight panel will no longer review all gene therapy applications and will instead take on a broader advisory role, according to changes proposed Wednesday. The Food and Drug Administration will vet gene therapy experiments and products as it does with other treatments and drugs.

It’s an extraordinary milestone for a field that has produced only a few approved treatments so far, and not all experts agree that it doesn’t still need special precautions.

With gene editing and other frontiers looming, “this is not the right time to be making any moves based on the idea that we know what the risks are,” said Stanford bioethicist Mildred Cho.

What is gene therapy?

Gene therapy aims to attack the root cause of a problem by deleting, adding or altering DNA, the chemical code of life, rather than just treating symptoms that result from a genetic flaw.

When it was first proposed, there were so many safety worries and scientific unknowns that the NIH created a panel of independent scientists, called the Recombinant DNA Advisory Committee, or RAC, to assess each experiment and potential risks to patients. The risks were underscored in 1999, when a teen’s death in a gene experiment put a chill on the field.

Since then, much has been learned about safety, and last year the FDA approved the nation’s first gene therapies, for cancer and an inherited form of blindness.

It’s time to let the FDA review gene therapy proposals on its own without duplicating regulatory efforts, the NIH’s director, Dr. Francis Collins, and FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb wrote Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine. The proposed changes will go into effect after a public comment period.

More than 700 proposals for gene therapy are pending now, and “it seems reasonable to envision a day when gene therapy will be a mainstay of treatment for many diseases,” they wrote. “The tools we use to address other areas of science are now well suited to gene therapy.”

Several experts agree, but not all

“This is something the FDA has the tools to handle. I don’t think this is somehow a massive deregulation,” said Leigh Turner of the University of Minnesota Center for Bioethics. “We never want to become blase or cavalier about gene therapy clinical trials. Careful scrutiny, whether by one body or two, is as important as ever.”

Jeffrey Kahn, director of the Bioethics Institute at Johns Hopkins University, said the move is consistent with recommendations from the Institute of Medicine several years ago.

“We have mechanisms in place to protect patients,” he said. “It doesn’t need to be treated as a special case of clinical research any longer.”

But Cho, who is a member of the RAC, said gene therapies are biologically complex treatments, and “we really don’t understand how they work,” in many cases. “There are miraculous recoveries and remissions that we haven’t seen before but there also are very spectacular failures.”

Important caveat: The rules in question govern gene therapies that alter DNA to treat diseases after someone is born, not altering embryos, eggs or sperm to make permanent changes that would be passed down through generations. That’s prohibited under current rules.

“We need to strengthen rather than weaken the review apparatus if the FDA were to start to consider proposals” for that, said Marcy Darnovsky, executive director of the Center for Genetics and Society, a group that advocates for oversight and responsible use of biotechnologies.

Scorching Weather Helps Uncover Archaeological Sites Around Britain

Britain’s hottest summer in decades has revealed cropmarks across the country showing the sites of Iron Age settlements, Roman farms and even Neolithic monuments dating back thousands of years, archaeologists said Wednesday.

Cropmarks — patterns of shading in crops and grass seen most clearly from the air — form faster in hot weather as the fields dry out, making this summer’s heat wave ideal for discovering such sites.

Archaeologists at the public body Historic England have been making the most of the hot weather to look for patterns revealing the ancient sites buried below, from Yorkshire in the north down to Cornwall in the southwest.

“We’ve discovered hundreds of new sites this year spanning about 6,000 years of England’s history,” said Damian Grady, aerial reconnaissance manager at Historic England.

“Each new site is interesting in itself, but the fact we’re finding so many sites over such a large area is filling in a lot of gaps in knowledge about how people lived and farmed and managed the landscape in the past,” he said.

The archaeologists are mapping the sites to determine the significance of the remains beneath and how best to protect them. While some may be significant enough to merit national protection from development, local authorities or farmers may be left to decide what to do at other sites.

“We’ll hopefully get the help of farmers to help protect some of these undesignated sites,” Grady said.

Study: Smokers Better Off Quitting, Even With Weight Gain

If you quit smoking and gain weight, it may seem like you’re trading one set of health problems for another. But a new U.S. study finds you’re still better off in the long run.

Compared with smokers, even the quitters who gained the most weight had at least a 50 percent lower risk of dying prematurely from heart disease and other causes, the Harvard-led study found.

The study is impressive in its size and scope and should put to rest any myth that there are prohibitive weight-related health consequences to quitting cigarettes, said Dr. William Dietz, a public health expert at George Washington University.

“The paper makes pretty clear that your health improves, even if you gain weight,” said Dietz, who was not involved in the research. “I don’t think we knew that with the assurance that this paper provides.”

The New England Journal of Medicine published the study Wednesday. The journal also published a Swedish study that found quitting smoking seems to be the best thing diabetics can do to cut their risk of dying prematurely.

10 pounds or more

The nicotine in cigarettes can suppress appetite and boost metabolism. Many smokers who quit and don’t step up their exercise find they eat more and gain weight — typically less than 10 pounds (4.5 kilograms), but in some cases three times that much.

A lot of weight gain is a cause of the most common form of diabetes, a disease in which blood sugar levels are higher than normal. Diabetes can lead to problems including blindness, nerve damage, heart and kidney disease, and poor blood flow to the legs and feet.

In the U.S. study, researchers tracked more than 170,000 men and women over roughly 20 years, looking at what they said in health questionnaires given every two years.

The people enrolled in the studies were all health professionals, and did not mirror current smokers in the general population, who are disproportionately low-income, less educated and more likely to smoke heavily.

The researchers checked which study participants quit smoking and followed whether they gained weight and developed diabetes, heart disease or other conditions.

Quitters saw their risk of diabetes increase by 22 percent in the six years after they kicked the habit. An editorial in the journal characterized it as “a mild elevation” in the diabetes risk.

Studies previously showed that people who quit have an elevated risk of developing diabetes, said Dr. Qi Sun, one the study’s authors. He is a researcher at the Harvard-affiliated Brigham and Women’s Hospital.

But that risk doesn’t endure, and it never leads to a higher premature death rate than what smokers face, he said.

“Regardless of the amount of weight gain, quitters always have a lower risk of dying” prematurely, Sun said.

US Condemns Turkey’s New ‘Regrettable’ Tariffs

The White House on Wednesday condemned Turkey for boosting tariffs on U.S. imports, the latest confrontation between the two NATO allies.

Ankara imposed stiffer levies on U.S. cars, alcohol, coal and other products — $533 million in new tariffs — in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum exported to the United States.

The tit-for-tat tariffs came amid Turkey’s rejection of a U.S. demand that it release American pastor Andrew Brunson, detained on espionage and terrorism-related charges.

White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said “the tariffs from Turkey are certainly regrettable and a step in the wrong direction. The tariffs that the United States placed on Turkey were out of national security interest. Theirs are out of retaliation.”

Sanders said even if Brunson is released, U.S. tariffs on steel would remain.

She said Turkey had treated Brunson “who we know to be a very good person and a strong Christian who has done nothing wrong, very unfairly, very badly, and it’s something that we won’t forget.”

With the dispute between the U.S. and Turkey seeming to escalate by the day, the value of Turkey’s lira currency against the dollar has plummeted, but Sanders rejected any blame on the U.S.’s part.

She said the U.S. was “monitoring the situation.” But she added that Turkey’s economic problems “are a part of a long-term trend, something of its own making and not the result of any actions the United States has taken.”

The new Turkish tariffs came a day after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country would boycott U.S. electronic goods, singling out Apple’s iPhones. Erdogan has blamed the U.S. for the fall of the lira, but refused to budge on Trump’s demand for Brunson’s release.

Meanwhile, Qatar said it would make a $15 billion investment in Turkey to help the country’s ailing economy.

The investment, which will be directed to Turkey’s banks and financial markets, was announced after Qatar’s Sheikh Tamin bin Hamad Al Thani held talks in Ankara with Erdogan.

Erdogan’s economic role

Turkey’s lira has plummeted nearly 40 percent this year due to concerns over Erdogan’s growing influence on the economy. The lira has recovered somewhat from recent lows as the government cut the daily limit in the exchange of currencies with foreign countries.

Turkey and Qatar historically have been good diplomatic partners. Turkey supported Qatar after Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries cut diplomatic, trade and travel ties with Qatar last year. The Arab states accused Qatar of financing terrorism, a charge Qatar denies.

Report: US SEC Subpoenas Tesla Over Musk’s Tweets

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has sent subpoenas to Tesla Inc. regarding Chief Executive Elon Musk’s plans to take the company private and his statement that funding was “secured,” Fox Business Network reported on Wednesday, citing sources.

Subpoenas typically indicate the SEC has opened a formal investigation into a matter. Tesla and the SEC declined to comment.

Musk stunned investors and sent Tesla’s shares soaring 11 percent when he tweeted early last week that he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 per share and that he had secured funding for the potential deal.

The electric carmaker’s shares were last down 1.9 percent at $341.00 on Wednesday. They have erased all their gains following Musk’s tweet last week.

Musk provided no details of his funding until Monday, when he said in a blog on Tesla’s website that he was in discussions with Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and other potential backers but that financing was not yet nailed down.

The CEO’s tweet may have violated U.S. securities law if he misled investors. On Monday, lawyers told Reuters Musk’s statement indicated he had good reason to believe he had funding but seemed to have overstated its status by saying it was secured.

The SEC has opened an inquiry into Musk’s tweets, according to one person with direct knowledge of the matter. Reuters was not immediately able to ascertain if this had escalated into a full-blown investigation on Wednesday.

This source said Tesla’s independent board members had hired law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison to help handle the SEC inquiry and other fiduciary duties with respect to a potential deal.

Trump Advisor Touts Sprint, T-Mobile Deal While Denying Lobbying

Corey Lewandowski, President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, touted on Wednesday benefits he sees in federal government approval of T-Mobile US Inc’s bid to acquire Sprint Corp, while also denying that he has worked directly for the company.

Lewandowski said he remains in regular contact with the president and has daily contact with Trump’s new campaign manager Brad Parscale. He has said he does not lobby on behalf of companies, but said he does consult with some corporations about navigating the federal government.

“If the T-Mobile deal is going to move forward because it’s going to create better 5G coverage in rural areas and create more jobs in the marketplace and help grow and compete with a competitive China, then without any hesitation I say we should have more jobs, we should be more competitive,” Lewandowski said on Wednesday at an event sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. “I have no idea what the Justice Department does on it. I haven’t spoken to anyone at the Justice Department on it.”

U.S. antitrust enforcers have started reviewing T-Mobile’s plan to buy Sprint for $26 billion, and have reached no conclusions on how many wireless carriers the country needs. The two companies compete against AT&T and Verizon to provide U.S. wireless service.

Lewandowski is among those advising the No. 3 wireless company on its deal as it prepares for what should be a tough regulatory review process, the mobile provider said in a statement in May.

Lobbying by former Trump officials has received increased attention after it was made public that Michael Cohen, the president’s former attorney, was paid $1.2 million by Novartis and $600,000 by AT&T to consult about the administration.

It is not uncommon for former political officials to lobby and consult with corporations after leaving the employment of an elected official.

A T-Mobile spokeswoman declined to comment on Lewandowski.

Lewandowski insisted he simply shares office space with a lobbying shop, Turnberry Solutions LLC, which is advising T-Mobile. Lobbying disclosure reports show T-Mobile has paid Turnberry Solutions LLC $170,000 since September 2017. T-Mobile said in May that Lewandowski “is now affiliated with [Turnberry] and they have offered perspective to T-Mobile on a variety of topics, including the pending transaction.”

“T-Mobile hired Jason Osborne and Mike Rubino, which is a firm that is also housed at the same office space that I am, and I talk to these guys all the time,” Lewandowski said when asked why T-Mobile said he was consulting with them. “I haven’t made a phone call. I’ve never called a government employee or a person and asked them to look at, help, solicit, move forward, pass any transaction, and I would challenge anybody in the room to find someone in the government who said I called and asked for a favor because I’ve never done it.”

US Sanctions Chinese, Russian, Singaporean Firms for North Korea Trading

The U.S. on Wednesday sanctioned companies in China, Russia and Singapore it says were violating the trade embargo with North Korea, Washington’s latest effort to keep pressure on Pyongyang to end its nuclear weapons development.

The U.S. Treasury accused China’s Dalian Sun Moon Star International Logistics Trading Co., along with its Singapore-based affiliate, SINSMS Ltd., of falsifying documents to ease “illicit” shipments of alcohol and cigarettes into North Korea that netted the companies more than $1 billion a year.

The U.S. also said that Profinet Ltd. in Russia violated United Nations sanctions by providing port services to already-sanctioned North Korean-flagged ships involved in oil shipments at three eastern Russia ports. The company’s director general was also blacklisted.

The sanctions freeze any assets they may have in the U.S. and blocks Americans from doing business with them.

In announcing the sanctions, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, “Treasury will continue to implement existing sanctions on North Korea, and will take action to block and designate companies, ports and vessels that facilitate illicit shipments and provide revenue streams” to North Korea. “Consequences for violating these sanctions will remain in place until we have achieved the final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agreed at a June summit in Singapore with U.S. President Donald Trump to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, but there were no details about when and how that would occur. Since then, the U.S. and North Korea have engaged in further talks about ending Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, but no agreements have been reached.

 

A Rising Concern? After Straws, Balloons Get More Scrutiny

Now that plastic straws may be headed for extinction, could Americans’ love of balloons be deflated?

The joyous celebration of releasing balloons into the air has long bothered environmentalists, who say the pieces that fall back to earth can be deadly to seabirds and turtles that eat them. So as companies vow to banish plastic straws, there are signs balloons will be among the products to get more scrutiny, even though they’re a very small part of environmental pollution.

This year, college football powerhouse Clemson University is ending its tradition of releasing 10,000 balloons into the air before games, a move that’s part of its sustainability efforts. In Virginia, a campaign that urges alternatives to balloon releases at weddings is expanding. And a town in Rhode Island outright banned the sale of all balloons earlier this year, citing the harm to marine life.

“There are all kinds of alternatives to balloons, a lot of ways to express yourself,” says Kenneth Lacoste, first warden of New Shoreham, Rhode Island, who cites posters, pinatas and decorated paper.

Following efforts to limit plastic bags, the push by environmentalists against straws has gained traction in recent months, partly because they’re seen as unnecessary for most. Companies including Starbucks and Disney are promising to phase out plastic straws, which can be difficult to recycle because of their size and often end up as trash in the ocean. A handful of U.S. cities recently passed or are considering bans. And the push may bring attention to other items people may not have considered — like festive balloons.

“The issue of straws has really broadened the marine debris issue,” says Emma Tonge of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. People might not realize balloons are a danger, she says, because of their “light and whimsical” image.

Balloons are not among the top 10 kinds of debris found in coastal cleanups, but Tongue says they’re common and especially hazardous to marine animals, which can also get entangled in balloon strings.

Chelsea Rochman, an assistant professor of ecology at the University of Toronto, says people should think systemically about waste and pollution, but that efforts to bring attention to specific products shouldn’t be dismissed as too minor.

“If we said that about everything, we wouldn’t get anything done,” she says.

Already, a few states restrict balloon releases to some extent, according to the Balloon Council, which represents the industry and advocates for the responsible handling of its products to “uphold the integrity of the professional balloon community.” That means never releasing them into the air, and ensuring the strings have a weight tied to them so the balloons don’t accidentally float away.

Lorna O’Hara, executive director of the Balloon Council, doesn’t dispute that marine creatures might mistake balloons for jellyfish and eat them. But she says that doesn’t mean balloons are necessarily causing their deaths.

Clean Virginia Waterways still thinks balloons can be harmful. Included in its report last year: A photo of a soaring bird with a deflated balloon trailing behind it.

The report addresses the “rising concern” of balloons, which also often use helium, a non-renewable resource. It notes the difficulty of changing a social norm and that even typing “congrats” in a Facebook post results in an animation of balloons. It even claims the media play a role and that some groups conduct balloon releases “just so reporters will cover the event.”

“We don’t want to say don’t use them at all. We’re saying just don’t release them,” says Laura McKay of the Virginia Coastal Zone Management Program.

Some states such as California ban balloon releases for other reasons. Pacific Gas & Electric, which serves northern and central California, says metallic balloons caused 203 power outages in the first five months of this year, up 22 percent from a year ago.

Lacoste thinks other towns, particularly those along the coasts, will also ban balloons as people become more aware of environmental issues. He notes that plastic bags were once seen as harmless, but many places now ban them.

US Retail Sales Rise Solidly; Productivity Accelerates

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in July as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and clothing, suggesting the economy remained strong early in the third quarter.

Other data on Wednesday showed worker productivity growing at its fastest pace in more than three years in the second quarter, but a drop in labor costs pointed to moderate wage inflation. Strong domestic demand supports expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September for the third time this year.

The Commerce Department said retail sales increased 0.5 percent last month. But data for June was revised lower to show sales gaining 0.2 percent instead of the previously reported 0.5 percent rise. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales nudging up 0.1 percent in July. Retail sales in July increased 6.4 percent from a year ago.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales advanced 0.5 percent last month after a downwardly revised 0.1 percent dip in June. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

Core retail sales were previously reported to have been unchanged in June. Consumer spending is being supported by a tightening labor market, which is steadily pushing up wages. Tax cuts and higher savings are also underpinning consumption.

July’s increase in core retail sales suggested the economy started the third quarter on solid footing after logging its best performance in nearly four years in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product surged at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the April-June period, almost double the 2.2 percent pace in the first quarter. While the economy is unlikely to repeat the second quarter’s robust performance, growth in the

July-September period is expected to top a 3.0 percent rate.

The Fed increased borrowing costs in June and forecast two more interest rate hikes by December.

Prices of U.S. Treasuries fell and the U.S. dollar added slightly to gains immediately after the release of the data. U.S. stock index futures were trading lower.

Productivity rises

Last month, auto sales rose 0.2 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in June. Sales at clothing stores rebounded 1.3 percent after declining 1.6 percent in June. Receipts at service stations increased 0.8 percent.

Online and mail-order retail sales increased 0.8 percent, likely boosted by Amazon.com Inc’s “Prime Day” promotion. That followed a 0.7 percent rise in June. Americans

spent more at restaurants and bars, lifting sales 1.3 percent.

But receipts at furniture stores fell 0.5 percent and sales at building material stores were unchanged last month. Spending at hobby, musical instrument and book stores declined further in July, falling 1.7 percent.

In a separate report on Wednesday, the Labor Department said nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, rose at a 2.9 percent annualized rate in the April-June quarter.

That was the strongest rate since the first quarter of 2015.

Data for the first quarter was revised lower to show productivity increasing at a 0.3 percent pace instead of the previously reported 0.4 percent rate. Economists had forecast productivity growing at a 2.3 percent rate in the second increased at a rate of 1.3 percent.

The government also revised data going back to 1947, which did not materially change the picture of lackluster productivity growth, though unit labor costs were stronger than previously estimated in 2017 because of upward revisions to hourly compensation.

The annual rate of productivity growth from 2007 to 2017 was revised up 0.1 percentage point to a rate of 1.3 percent.

Unit labor costs, the price of labor per single unit of output, fell at a 0.9 percent pace in the second quarter. That was the weakest pace since the third quarter of 2014.

First-quarter growth in unit labor costs was revised up to a 3.4 percent rate from the previously reported 2.9 percent pace.

Labor costs increased at a 1.9 percent rate compared to the second quarter of 2017, pointing to moderate wage inflation.

 

US University Puts Electronic Assistants in All Student Housing

One American university is putting electronic voice-controlled assistants in every student housing room on campus.

Saint Louis University recently announced it will equip every student living space with Amazon’s Alexa system. The school in St. Louis, Missouri, will place about 2,300 Echo Dot “smart” devices in all student dorms and other university housing.

Officials said the university will be the first in the world to put the devices in every student living space. The devices and the Alexa service are being provided at no costs to students.

The Amazon Echo is a speaker with the ability to listen and “talk” to users and can perform some operations. The Alexa assistant competes with similar systems made by Google and Apple.

Devices linked to the systems have become increasingly popular in homes in recent years. They can be used for things like looking up information, playing music, ordering food or buying things on the internet. The devices can also complete actions in the home. These include turning lights on and off, and controlling systems for heating and cooling and security.

Amazon calls these different tasks Alexa can perform “skills.”

Amazon said in a website post that Saint Louis University chose the Alexa system after carrying out a test program. The program involved the Echo Dot and a device from a competing company. It said the students had a better reaction to the Alexa system.

The Echo Dots will include a special skill developed especially for Saint Louis University. It will provide information and answer questions about local school activities and campus life.

Next year, the university plans to add more personalized skills, such as providing information about classes and grades.

The university said it did not increase student tuition to pay for the project. Instead, officials said, it was financed through the school’s general fund, as well as partnerships with Amazon and n-Powered.  The company, based in Los Angeles, California, helped develop the parts of the system that are related to Saint Louis University.

David Hakanson is Saint Louis University’s vice president and chief information officer. In announcing the project, he said it will fit well with students who are “highly driven to achieve success in and out of the classroom.”

He added: “Every minute we can save our students from having to search for the information they need online is another minute that they can spend focused on what matters most: their education.”

While the devices are being placed in every university housing space, students do not have to use them. For those wishing not to take part, the school suggests students just remove the devices from their rooms and put them away in a safe place.

Other universities have also experimented with voice-controlled assistants in student living areas.

A year ago, Arizona State University announced a program that provided Echo Dot devices to a special housing area for engineering students. In the program, all engineering students moving into the special housing community were given the choice of receiving an Echo Dot if they wanted one.

As is the case at Saint Louis University, Arizona State students are able to use the system to get the latest information on university programs and events. However, the Arizona students also have the chance to sign up for classes that teach subjects related specifically to creating new uses for Alexa devices.

Octavio Heredia is a director with Arizona State’s Fulton Schools of Engineering. He said he thinks it is a good idea for students to get as much experience as possible with the voice assistants to improve their development skills and prepare for future jobs.

“Once they are familiar with the devices, they are going to want to further develop their own skills and begin integrating that technology – the hardware and the skills – into other projects,” he said.

Turkey Boosts Tariffs Amid US Feud

Turkey on Wednesday announced tariff hikes on a range of U.S. goods in the latest back-and-forth move amid a deteriorating relationship between the two countries.

The extra tariffs apply to imports of vehicles, alcohol, coal, rice and cosmetics.

Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay said on Twitter the increases were being done “within the framework of the principle of reciprocity in retaliation for the conscious economic attacks by the United States.”

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is accusing the United States of waging a targeted economic war on his country, and on Tuesday he proposed a boycott of U.S. electronic goods.

“If they have the iPhone, there is Samsung elsewhere. In our own country we have Vestel,” said Erdogan.

Asked how U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration would react to any such Turkish boycott, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders replied during Tuesday afternoon’s briefing, “I certainly don’t have a policy announcement on that at this point.” 

Trump administration sources say further sanctions against Turkey are under active consideration. But Sanders declined to say how the U.S. government plans to apply more pressure on Ankara, which repeatedly has ignored calls from Trump and others to free Christian pastor Andrew Brunson. 

Turkey accuses Brunson of espionage and is holding him under house arrest pending his trial. 

The chargé d’affaires at the U.S. embassy in Turkey, Jeffrey Hovenier, visited Brunson on Tuesday and called for his case — and those of others detained in Turkey — to be resolved “without delay” and in a “fair and transparent manner.”

National Security Adviser John Bolton met at the White House on Monday with Turkish ambassador Serdar Kilic, but the discussion reportedly did not result in any substantive progress.

Trump, who has called Brunson’s detention a “total disgrace,” last Friday doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum exports in order to increase pressure on Erdogan. 

Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Turkey’s ministers of Justice and Interior in response to the continued detention of the pastor, who has lived in the country for 20 years and heads an evangelical congregation of about two dozen people in the port city of Izmir. 

The escalating dispute between the two countries has exacerbated Turkey’s economic crisis, pushing the lira to record lows. The Turkish currency has lost about 40 percent of its value this year against the U.S. dollar.

Erdogan has called on Turks to exchange their dollars for lira in order to shore up the domestic currency.

In a joint statement Tuesday, Turkish business groups called on the government to institute tighter monetary policy in order to combat the currency crisis. They also said Turkey should work to resolve the situation with the United States diplomatically while also improving relations with another major trading partner, the European Union.

The Turkish central bank has pledged to take “all necessary measures” to stabilize the country’s economy to make sure the banks have all the money they need. But world stock traders were dismayed the bank did not raise interest rates, which is what many economists believe is necessary to ease the crisis.

The United States and Turkey also have diverging interests over Syria, which is enmeshed in a protracted civil war. 

The differences are drawing Turkey closer to Russia, they key adversary of NATO but a country supplying more than half of Turkey’s gas.

Turkey has agreed to buy S-400 surface-to-air missiles from Russia, an unprecedented move by a NATO member, which has raised objections from members of both parties of the U.S. Congress and the Trump administration. 

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, voiced support for Turkey during a joint news conference with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara on Tuesday, stating both countries plan to switch from dollars to national currencies for their mutual trade.

“We view the policy of sanctions as unlawful and illegitimate, driven mostly by a desire to dominate everywhere and in everything, dictate policies and call shots in international affairs,” said Lavrov, predicting “such a policy can’t be a basis for normal dialogue and can’t last long.

Lavrov, alongside Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, also declared, “We are at a turning point, without exaggeration, in world history” from dominance by a single power toward a multipolar environment. 

Modi Says India will Send Manned Flight into Space By 2022

India will send a manned flight into space by 2022, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced Wednesday as part of India’s independence day celebrations.

He said India will become the fourth country after Russia, the United States and China to achieve the feat and its astronaut could be a man or a woman. The space capsule that will transport India’s astronauts was tested a few days earlier.

Rakesh Sharma was the first Indian to travel in space, aboard a Soviet rocket in 1984. As part of its own space program, India successfully put a satellite into orbit around Mars in 2014.

India won independence from British colonialists in 1947. Modi’s 80-minute speech, broadcast live from the historic Red Fort in New Delhi, comes months before national elections. 

Modi listed his government’s achievements in the past four years in reforming the country’s economy, reducing poverty and corruption. He announced a health insurance scheme for 500 million poor people providing a cover of 500,000 rupees ($7,150) per family a year.

He said India will become a growth engine for the world economy as the “sleeping elephant” has started to run on the back of structural economic reforms.

He said its economy was seen as fragile before 2014 but was now attracting investment. India is the sixth largest economy in the world and Modi said international institutions see India as giving strength to the world economy for the next three decades.

He said the structural reforms like a national tax replacing various national and local taxes, bankruptcy and insolvency laws, and a crackdown on corruption have helped transform the economy.

NZ Teachers Strike for First Time in 20 years, Challenge Government’s Fiscal Plan

New Zealand school teachers went on strike on Wednesday for the first time in more than 20 years, challenging the Labor government’s plans to balance promised fiscal responsibility against growing demands to increase public sector salaries.

The government’s first budget in May was stretched to fulfill its promise to juggle investing in much-needed infrastructure with a self-imposed rule to pay down debt and insulate the economy from potential shocks.

Almost 30,000 primary school teachers did not turn up to work on Wednesday and held protests across the country, leaving parents of children aged 5 to 13 at public schools scrambling to find childcare.

“Teachers and principals voted for a full day strike…to send a strong message to the Government that the current collective agreement offers from the Ministry of Education would not fix the crisis in teaching,” said Louise Green, lead negotiator at NZEI, the union that represents teachers, in a statement.

NZEI said it has asked for a 16 percent pay increase for teachers over two years, whereas the government has offered between 6.1 and 14.7 percent pay rises, depending on experience, over three years.

“Our view is that we need to have those discussions around the negotiating table but…there isn’t an endless amount that we have available to us in order to meet those expectations,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said at her weekly news conference on Monday.

​The action comes in the wake of a one-day nationwide nurses’ strike in July and a series of smaller actions by government workers, challenging Ardern’s center-left government, which ended almost a decade of center-right National Party rule in October.

The stand-off with its traditional union support base comes nine months after Labor formed a coalition government, promising to pour money into social services and rein in inequality, which has increased despite years of strong growth.

Wage growth has remained sluggish in the island nation for years, despite soaring housing costs, which labour groups and economists say has left workers struggling despite robust growth.

The government is also struggling with gloomy business confidence, which has sunk to decade lows and contributed to a surprise signal from the central bank on Thursday that it planned to keep rates on hold into 2020 and saw downside risks to its growth forecasts.

Tonga PM Calls on China to Write-off Pacific Debt

Tonga Prime Minister Akalisi Pohiva has called for China to write-off debts owed by Pacific island countries, warning that repayments impose a huge burden on the impoverished nations.

Chinese aid in the Pacific has ballooned in recent years with much of the funds coming in the form of loans from Beijing’s state-run Exim Bank.

Tonga has run-up enormous debts to China, estimated at more than US$100 million by Australia’s Lowy Institute think tank, and Pohiva said his country would struggle to repay them.

He said the situation was common in the Oceania region and needed to be addressed at next month’s Pacific Island Forum summit in Nauru.

“We need to discuss the issue,” he told the Samoa Observer in an interview published on Tuesday.

“All the Pacific Island countries should sign this submission asking the Chinese government to forgive their debts.”

“To me, that is the only way we can all move forward, if we just can’t pay off our debts.”

Tonga took out the Chinese loans to rebuild in the wake of deadly 2006 riots that razed the center of the capital Nuku’alofa.

Beijing has previously refused to write-off the loans by turning them into aid grants but did give Tonga an amnesty on repayments.

Pohiva said China now wanted the debts repaid.

“By September 2018, we anticipate to pay $14 million, which cuts away a huge part of our budget,” he said.

Tonga’s ability to pay has been further dented this year by another massive rebuilding effort in Nuku’alofa, this time after a category five cyclone slammed into the capital in February.

“If we fail to pay, the Chinese may come and take our assets, which are our buildings,” Pohiva said.

“That is why the only option is to sign a submission asking the Chinese government to forgive our debts.”

His comments come as Australia and New Zealand ramp up aid efforts in the Pacific to counter China’s growing presence in the region.

Australia has raised fears in recent months Pacific nations’ debts to China leaves them susceptible to Beijing’s influence.

It has resulted in a race to win hearts and minds in the region.

Canberra recently announced plans to negotiate a security treaty with Vanuatu, while also funding and building an underseas communications cable to the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea.

Meanwhile, Chinese company Huawei has agreed to build PNG’s domestic internet network with funds supplied by Exim Bank.

Experts: Hail Damage Worse, but Climate Role Uncertain

Hailstorms inflict billions of dollars’ worth of damage yearly in North America alone, and the cost will rise as the growing population builds more homes, offices and factories, climate and weather experts said Tuesday.

The role of climate change in hailstorms is harder to assess, the experts said at a conference at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

Climate change will most likely make large hailstorms worse, but population growth is more of a certainty, said Andreas Prein, a climate modeling scientist at the atmospheric research center.

“We know pretty certain that we will have more people in the future, and they will have more stuff, and this stuff can be damaged,” Prein said. “I think this component is more certain than what we can say about climate change at the moment.”

This year is expected to be the 11th in a row in which the damage from severe storms exceeds $10 billion in the United States, and 70 percent of that cost comes from hail, said Ian Giammanco, a research meteorologist for the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety.

“It’s such a huge driver of the dollar loss each year,” he said. 

Bigger homes, closer together

Costs are rising in the U.S. because homes are getting bigger, from about 1,700 square feet (139 square meters) in the early 1980s to 2,500 square feet (232 square meters) in 2015, he said. New subdivisions also pack homes in more tightly, Giammanco said.

“So it’s a bigger target for hailstorms to hit,” he said.

The effects of climate change on hail and the resulting damage are harder to calculate because hailstorms require distinct ingredients, and global warming affects them in different ways, Prein said.

To form, hailstorms require moisture, an updraft, variable winds and freezing temperatures at lower levels of the storm cloud, he said.

Updrafts lift water droplets into the clouds, where they attract other droplets and freeze together, scientists say. Winds of varying speed and direction keep the droplets suspended in the cloud long enough to grow into hailstones. When they eventually fall, freezing temperatures in the cloud keep them from melting before they hit warmer air closer to the ground.

Climate change will most likely increase updrafts, helping hailstones form, Prein said.

But it will inhibit two hail-producing conditions, he said. Warmer temperatures will expand higher into the atmosphere, so falling hailstones have more time to melt before hitting the ground. And differences in wind speed and direction will subside, he said.

Climate change will make the atmosphere more moist, but the effect that will have on hailstones isn’t clear, he said.

More storms that are severe

Kristen Rasmussen, an assistant professor at Colorado State University, said the combined effects of climate change will probably inhibit the number of weaker storms but increase the number of severe ones.

“So we actually think that’s why we’re seeing a decrease in the number of weak to moderate storms and an increase in the most severe storms,” she said. “If those storms are able to break through this inhibition, they … have the potential to be more severe, and they can tap into more energy when they do so.”

The researchers said they need more data to understand the relationship between climate change and hailstorms. Improved science could also help predict hailstorms and calculate risks better, they said.

The Rocky Mountains of Colorado, the Andes in South America and the Himalayas all have conditions that make them hot spots for hail, Rasmussen said.

A May 2017 hailstorm in the Denver area caused $2.3 billion in insurance losses. Last week, hail injured 14 people in Colorado Springs and killed at least five animals at the city zoo. Damage estimates were still being compiled.

Nicaragua Slashes Budget Because of Unrest

Nicaragua’s National Assembly on Tuesday approved a drastic cut to the national budget because of the economic impact of months of anti-government unrest.

The lawmakers adopted a 9.2 percent reduction of the 2018 budget, projecting $180 million less in spending to partly make up for a drop of $220 million in government income.

It was the steepest cut seen in the past 11 years that President Daniel Ortega has been in power. 

The minister for finance and public credit, Ivan Acosta, blamed the reduction on protesters accused of trying to stage a “coup” against Ortega’s government.

The demonstrations against Ortega began in April in anger at moves to cut back social security. But when security forces cracked down, they quickly spread to become marches demanding Ortega’s ouster. 

More than 300 people have died and thousands of Nicaraguans have fled what they say is harsh repression and persecution.

After operations against protest hubs in July, the president claimed the unrest was over and the country was getting back to normal. But demonstrations are continuing.

Contraction possible

Acosta said that before the protests, the economy had been expected to grow 4.3 percent this year. The government has now lowered that target to 1 percent, although some independent analysts say a contraction of 3.5 percent could be in the cards.

The minister told the National Assembly that the fallout from the unrest had forced 8,700 small businesses to close, leaving 71,000 people without work. The important tourism sector has lost $235 million, he said.

The private sector estimates that 200,000 people were left unemployed by the continuing crisis.

Acosta said the budget cuts would not affect social spending, public investment or the level of government employment.

“This reform is tough,” he said. “Right now we are working on the premise that the country is returning in the direction of normality and stability.”

Fiscal and tax reform was needed to make up for the diminished growth, he added, warning that “those who must pay will be made to pay.”

That warning appeared to be aimed at Nicaragua’s business owners who have abandoned Ortega because of the deadly violence ordered against the protesters.

Brazil’s Farmers Dump Sugar for Soy as Trade War Boosts Chinese Demand

Last year, Brazilian farmer Gustavo Lopes sized up his sugar cane plantation against his soybean fields.

He looked at global trends, including rising U.S.-China trade tensions and a stubborn sugar-market glut. Then he tore up the last of his cane fields and ditched a decades-old supply contract with a local sugar mill.

Lopes planted soybeans across his 1,600-hectare (4,000-acre) farm in Sao Paulo state – a bet that paid off earlier this month when Chinese buyers loaded up on South American soy after Beijing imposed tariffs on U.S. beans. The farmer got his highest price ever for soybeans.

“It was unusual for this time of year,” Lopes said in an interview at his farm, where he’s prepping to plant another soy crop in September. “It’s got to be a result of Chinese demand.”

Shifting trade flows are redefining the Brazilian landscape, spurring more farmers to align their crops with Chinese appetites. The nation’s soy plantings have expanded by 2 million hectares in two years – an area the size of New Jersey – while land used for cane shrank by nearly 400,000 hectares, according to government data.

China’s growing demand for meat has supercharged soy imports for animal feed. The Asian nation paid $20.3 billion last year for 53.8 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, nearly half its output — and up from 22.8 million tons in 2012.

A new 25 percent Chinese tariff on U.S. soybeans — a retaliation for U.S. levies by President Donald Trump — is expected to boost Brazil’s soy exports to an all-time record this year.

Brazilian soybean exports to China rose to nearly 36 million tons in the first half of 2018, up 6 percent from a year ago.

In July, they surged 46 percent from the same month a year earlier to 10.2 million tons.

Brazil’s grains boom has it rivaling United States as the world’s top soy producer this year, after outpacing U.S. exports over the past five years.

All that soy is eating into Brazil’s sugarcane belt, which is reeling from sugar prices near multi-year lows. Chinese sugar tariffs have weighed on the global market for the sweetener as developed nations continue to cut back consumption.

“We lost 3,000 hectares of cane area to grains in the last two years,” said Roberto de Rezende Barbosa, chief executive of Nova América, one of the largest cane growers in Brazil, managing 110,000 hectares.

Rezende said he had seen farmers migrating from sugarcane into grains in nearly every state where both crops are viable.

Shuttered Sugar Mills

The crop swap is catching on quickly with farmers, threatening the survival of cane mills they once supplied.

About 60 cane mills have closed in the past five years in Brazil’s center-south cane region. About 270 that remain open must fight harder than ever to secure cane supplies.

Agroconsult, an agribusiness consultancy, said it has received requests from mills to calculate the premium they will have to pay producers to keep them from switching to grains.

Douglas Duarte, a director at the Londra mill in Itaí — which used to lease part of the Lopes farm — said he has plans to add 500,000 tons of capacity at the mill but has yet to line up enough cane supplies.

With so many farmers focused on grain, Duarte has worked to sign leases with families who are not interested in actively managing their land.

“In places where the owners have expertise with grains — the equipment and everything — then you can’t compete,” he said.

In some places, the closing of cane mills has also discouraged planting.

Farmer Antonio de Morais Ribeiro Neto gave up planting cane last year after the closure of the sugar mill that he supplied, called Usina Maracaju. Biosev SA, the Brazilian sugar arm of global commodities trader Louis Dreyfus, shut it down in a cost-cutting move.

So Riberio replaced 400 hectares of cane with soybeans, adding to the 2,000 hectares of soy he already had planted. As he watched the U.S.-China trade war escalate, he bought two new grain silos, more soybean-planting machinery and a new harvester.

‘Betting Big’

Plenty of sugar mills, which often grow part of the cane they process, have realized they cannot fight the soy boom and decided to plant their own soybeans as part of a crop rotation strategy.

Cane fields typically need to be replanted after five or six years, and mills are using the renovation window to produce soybeans.

“In the past, those areas subject to renovation would be left fallow until the following year,” said Victor Campanelli, who has exploited the niche.

His firm, Agro Pastoril Paschoal Campanelli, manages the planning, inputs and equipment for sugar mills’ one-off soy crops, sharing in the profits.

While the grains bonanza has many farmers flush with cash, some are wary about relying so much on one crop and one massive importer.

“This Chinese demand has attracted all the farmers,” said Marcos Cesar Brunozzi, who switched part of his land from sugar to grains in the state of Minas Gerais. “I hope the whole situation doesn’t change suddenly, because we are betting big.”

Lopes has no regrets about tearing up his cane fields.

Last year, his sugar cane yielded a net profit of 480 reais per hectare — compared to 2,600 reais per hectare for his soy fields.

“I know it won’t always be that way,” he said. “But still, it’s a huge difference.”