YCLOAK

Former Brazilian Finance Minister Antonio Palocci told a court hearing Thursday that he could provide details of a political kickback scheme, which could threaten former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s chances of running in the 2018 election.

In the video of the hearing released Thursday, Palocci made the offer directly to Judge Sergio Moro, who has overseen a sweeping three-year-old corruption investigation, known as Operation Car Wash, that has upturned Brazilian politics.

“I could immediately present all the facts, with names, addresses and operations carried out, things that will certainly be of interest to Car Wash,” Palocci said in the video of the hearing.

Operation Car Wash, named for a gas station in what began as a money laundering probe in the capital Brasilia, has uncovered a bribery scheme at the highest levels of Brazilian politics in return for contracts at state-run enterprises.

Palocci, one of the closest advisers to Lula and former President Dilma Rousseff from 2003 to 2011, was jailed in September on charges he ran a bribery scheme funneling money to the Workers Party, which then ruled Brazil.

Newspaper Folha de S.Paulo reported Tuesday, without citing sources, that Palocci met with investigators in recent weeks to discuss the terms of a possible plea bargain deal to give evidence against Lula and other party leaders. Palocci’s lawyer could not be reached to comment.

Several polls show Lula as the favorite in voting intentions for the 2018 presidential election, but he could be barred from running if sentenced for corruption. Lula already faces five court cases related to the investigations.

Folha reported that plea bargain testimony from Palocci, once one of Brazil’s most powerful politicians, could also widen the scope of investigations currently focused on engineering firms, to include banks and other corporations.

Palocci, who has not commented on the Folha story about the plea bargain, said at the hearing that he believed his revelations could give investigators grist to widen the probe.

“I believe I could open the way for what might be another year of work — but work that would be good for Brazil,” Palocci said at the hearing.
…

Argentina hopes to have an agreement on a free-trade deal between the European Union and the South American Mercosur bloc by year’s end, its foreign minister said Thursday.

The European Union and Mercosur launched trade negotiations in 1999, but they have faced multiple setbacks, partly because of the leftist rule in Argentina that lasted more than a decade.

That government has now replaced by a more pro-business government since late 2015 that advocates trade.

“We hope that it will be by the end of the year, but it is not a deadline. It could be in the first quarter of the coming year,” Argentine Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra told reporters in Brussels.

“We would like to at least make an announcement at the WTO meeting in Buenos Aires that things are sufficiently close,” she added.

Trade ministers will convene in Buenos Aires in December for a meeting of the World Trade Organization.

Malcorra named issues related to rules of origin as well as food safety measures as important points that still needed to be discussed.

The EU and Mercosur exchanged market access offers in May 2016, including lists of imports that each side was prepared to liberalize.

The full members of the Mercosur trade bloc are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, which was suspended in December.
…

General Motors said Wednesday that Venezuelan authorities had illegally seized its plant in the industrial hub of Valencia and vowed to “take all legal actions” to defend its rights.

The seizure comes amid a deepening economic crisis in leftist-led Venezuela that has roiled many U.S. companies.

“Yesterday, GMV’s (General Motors Venezolana) plant was unexpectedly taken by the public authorities, preventing normal operations. In addition, other assets of the company, such as vehicles, have been illegally taken from its facilities,” the company said in a statement.

It said the seizure would cause irreparable damage to the company, its 2,678 workers, its 79 dealers and to its suppliers.

Industry in freefall

Venezuela’s Information Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for information.

Venezuela’s car industry has been in freefall, hit by a lack of raw materials stemming from complex currency controls and stagnant local production, and many plants are barely producing at all.

In early 2015, Ford Motor Co. wrote off its investment in Venezuela when it took an $800 million pre-tax writedown.

Many US companies out

The country’s economic crisis has hurt many other U.S. companies, including food makers and pharmaceutical firms. A growing number are taking their Venezuelan operations out off their consolidated accounts.

Venezuela’s government has taken over factories in the past.

In 2014 the government announced the “temporary” takeover of two plants belonging to U.S. cleaning products maker Clorox Co., which had left the country.

Venezuela faces around 20 arbitration cases over nationalizations under late leader Hugo Chavez.
…

A federal judge in Miami fined Princess Cruise Lines $40 million Wednesday for illegally dumping oil waste into the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, and for falsifying records.

It is the largest such water pollution fine in U.S. history.

The Miami Herald newspaper says the British engineer who reported the dumping to the U.S. Coast Guard will get a $1 million reward.

According to the Herald, engineers aboard the Caribbean Princess in 2012 and 2013 were ordered to dump the oily water straight into the sea and avoid the ship’s filtration system, in order to save money. It said the ship’s two senior engineers falsified the vessel’s records.

The British engineer recorded the dumping on a cellphone.

Four other Princess ships also were involved in the illegal dumping off the East Coast, and near Florida and Texas.
…

Peru’s economy will recover in coming years with investment in construction after recent flooding, likely growing 4.5 percent in 2018 and 5 percent in 2019, Finance Minister Alfredo Thorne said on Wednesday.

Previously, the government had expected growth of 4.3 and 4.1 percent for the next two years.

The estimate for 2017 growth was lowered this month to 3 percent from 3.8 percent previously due to flooding.

“The shock will be temporary,” Thorne said in a presentation at Lima’s Chamber of Commerce.

The floods have damaged 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles) of roads, destroyed thousands of houses and killed 106 people since December.

Peru’s economy, which has also been hurt by paralyzed infrastructure projects due to a corruption investigation involving Brazil’s Odebrecht, grew at its lowest rate in more than two years in February.
…

Over the last six months, the skyline over the sleepy fishing city of Gwadar has been transformed by machines that dredge the Arabian Sea and cranes that set up shipping berths in what is projected to become Pakistan’s biggest international port.

Infrastructure developments have enabled the hammer-shaped Gwadar peninsula to emerge as the centerpiece of China’s determined effort to shorten its trade route to the Persian Gulf and obtain access to the rich oil reserves there.

A mini-“Chinatown” has appeared, with prefabricated living quarters, a canteen and a karaoke center. After hours, the workers have the grounds to play their favorite game, badminton.

A spokesman for the Chinese team in Gwadar said in an interview that his government had invited employment bids in China, then brought the workers here.

He proudly touted the successful test run conducted by China in November when it used Pakistan’s land route from Kashgar to Gwadar to transport a convoy of 60 containers for export to the Middle East and North Africa.

Prior to that, he said, China had sailed materials through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean to reach Gwadar.

The Chinese propose to cut down that 12,000-kilometer sea route by about one-fourth once they adopt the land route from the northwestern province of Xinjiang to Gwadar.

So eager is China to save on distance, time and expense — and the challenge posed by the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea — that it has weathered Pakistan’s unstable law-and-order situation to build its economic corridor.

Small wonder that the Chinese spokesman omitted an incident — related by locals to VOA — that the test convoy came under fire in Hoshab, Baluchistan, despite protection from a special security force.

Since then, Pakistan has enhanced its 12,000-plus security force to protect the Chinese. That has turned Gwadar into a military zone, with strict checks of vehicles and ID cards, plus an encampment of intelligence officials.

Still, Baluch insurgents use attacks on “soft targets,” like laborers from other provinces, to drive away investors from the China Pakistan Economic Corridor. On April 5, as road workers from Sindh were gunned down in Kharan in targeted killings claimed by the Baluchistan Liberation Front, former army Col. Farooq Ahmed said suspicion fell on militants operating from Afghanistan.

The Chinese, for their part, have taken heart from the security provided by Islamabad to plan ahead. A prefabricated coal plant will be brought from China to Gwadar to fire up its energy needs. Moreover, China will finance Gwadar international airport, according to the spokesman.

Distances inside Pakistan have shortened as the Frontier Works Organization builds a 3,000-km network of roads funded by Chinese investment.

Symbolizing skepticism

Despite Pakistan’s ongoing military operation against the Taliban, sporadic terror attacks are the biggest hurdle to the country’s development. After 9/11, when Pakistan allied with the U.S. in combating terrorism in Afghanistan, militant organizations put down their roots and threatened the nation from inside.

As social indicators fell and Pakistan became one of the world’s most food-insecure nations, it opened its doors to China — one of America’s rivals — to help fight poverty, a key factor in fundamentalism and terrorism.

When U.S. envoy Nikki Haley recently spoke of nations that use their United Nations veto to stop non-state actors from being designated as terrorists, it was seen as a reference to China’s refusal to let Kashmiri militant Masood Azhar be so named. Pakistani analysts interpreted this to mean the U.S. would move closer to India, even while revisiting ties with Pakistan because of its key role in Afghanistan.

Now the road from Karachi to Gwadar is smooth and empty, with awe-inspiring, wind-carved hills and mysterious canyons that dip into golden sands that run for kilometers along the deep blue-green Arabian Sea. It has enabled locals to rediscover their country — even as some marvel at the speed of construction.

But in a country that suffers from grinding poverty, little industry and high unemployment, the benefits of China’s investment are still hard to sell to the average person.

Gwadar symbolizes the skepticism. A miniscule amount has been spent by Islamabad and Beijing on people’s welfare, including a vocational training center, a hospital and school. The peninsula’s natural beauty belies erratic electricity, scarce drinking water and lack of proper sewerage.

Gwadar Port Authority Chairman Dostain Jamaldini explains to delegations arriving daily from across the country that revenue generation is the key to uplifting the area.

He showed off a huge quadrangle in the center of Gwadar that “can even be seen on Google Earth.” There, he has recommended to Islamabad that a multipurpose lighthouse be constructed to guide incoming ships and generate revenue.

Until that happens, the fishermen who build wooden boats along Gwadar beach will likely lose their livelihood as their shanty homes are removed.

Already, the vacant plots in Gwadar’s Sinjhaar area overlooking the sea have been repossessed by the Pakistan Navy and earmarked for sale to military officials and politicians.

For the well-connected, a real estate boom is on the horizon. Trader Abbas Rashanwala said he waited for years for peace to come to Gwadar. Now his real estate business has taken off, with investors flocking in to buy land.

Many realtors are betting on Gwadar as on the stock market — making deals online or on the phone. Several sit in the Punjab, selling property they have never seen in Gwadar, all on speculation that prices will soon skyrocket.

Meanwhile, China’s investment in Gwadar is helping control maritime crime. Officials tell how traffickers from Africa and the Middle East used to dock on the beach at night to swap slaves for narcotics.

In February, 36 nations, including the U.S. and Russia, participated in the Pakistan Navy’s multinational patrolling of the Arabian Sea in a global recognition of China’s role in making the waterways safer.

Still, China’s emerging role in Pakistan has raised many questions. The most prominent criticism is that China will become Pakistan’s “East India Company” — a metaphor for the British empire’s plunder of India.

Notwithstanding the doomsayers, there also is a readiness to accept that development and peace are inextricably linked to Pakistan’s future.
…

The Brazilian government on Wednesday agreed to lower the minimum retirement age for police officers in its pension reform proposal, a day after members of their unions stormed Congress to protest the controversial bill.

In the reform draft, congressman Arthur Maia, a government ally in charge of making changes to the original proposal, reduced the minimum retirement age for police to 55 from 60.

After he revealed the details of his proposal on Tuesday, hundreds of police unions dressed in black shirts broke the windows of the main entrance of the legislature in Brasilia and clashed with congressional guards.

The violent clash, during which the guards used pepper spray and stun grenades to disperse the protesters, illustrated the unpopularity of the reform proposal that is central to President Michel Temer’s austerity agenda.

The protest was the latest in what is expected to be months of street demonstrations by workers’ unions even after Temer has repeatedly watered down the proposal, which aims to reduce some of the world’s most generous pension benefits.

Maia is scheduled to read his full reform draft at a special lower house commission later on Wednesday. The initial vote of the proposal, which is a constitutional amendment, has been set for May 2 at the commission.

As it is a constitutional amendment, the measure has to be approved by a three-fifths majority in separate votes by both houses of Congress.

 
…

The International Monetary Fund said President Trump’s plans to cut regulations and taxes might encourage companies to make risky investments of the kind that preceded the financial crisis in 2008.

The comment came Wednesday in the newest edition of the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, which also said the financial system has gotten more stable in recent months, as economic growth strengthened and interest rates rose, which helped banks.

Trump’s proposals are intended to boost investment, growth and employment and would include changes like reducing taxes on foreign earnings brought back to the U.S. IMF experts say some of the money is likely to flow into sectors with significant debts.Those firms might have difficulty repaying loans if inflation and interest rates rise sharply from their current unusually low levels.

The IMF also warned against slashing banking regulations, which were tightened in the wake of the financial crisis in the hope of preventing future problems. The fund said there is room for “fine-tuning” but urged Washington not to undertake “wholesale” weakening of the rules.

Tuesday, IMF economists said the global economy will grow a bit faster than earlier predictions amid buoyant financial markets and improved manufacturing and trade.They warned that rising protectionism could hurt trade and economic growth.

The reports come as financial and economic officials from around the world gather in Washington for this week’s meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
…

Emirates Airline, the world’s biggest international air carrier by traffic, said Wednesday it is cutting flights to five U.S. cities because of a drop in demand since President Donald Trump sought to curb immigration from several Muslim-majority countries and imposed restrictions on passengers carrying electronic devices on flights to the United States.  

The Dubai-based carrier said that over the last three months, as Trump assumed power in Washington, it has seen “a significant deterioration” in bookings to the U.S.  It said that “as any profit-oriented enterprise would,” it has decided to cut service to the U.S. and instead move flights to other cities across the globe.

The U.S. in March cited terrorism threats as it banned air passengers from several Middle Eastern countries, including the United Arab Emirates, from carrying large electronic devices, such as laptops and tablets, in cabins on flights to the United States.

Earlier, Trump issued two orders, both blocked by U.S. courts, that sought to bar citizens from several majority-Muslim countries from entering the U.S., part of his effort to protect U.S. borders from new terrorist attacks and impose “extreme vetting” on immigrants looking to settle in the country.

The airline said “the recent actions taken by the U.S. government relating to the issuance of entry visas, heightened security vetting and restrictions on electronic devices in aircraft cabins have had a direct impact on consumer interest and demand for air travel into the U.S.”

Emirates said it would trim service next month to two cities in Florida, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando, from daily to five times a week. In June, it plans to cut twice-a-day service to Seattle and Boston to once a day and make the same reduction in flights to Los Angeles in July.
…

Nigeria’s president on Wednesday suspended the country’s intelligence chief over the recent discovery of $43 million in cash in a Lagos apartment.

President Muhammadu Buhari has ordered an investigation into how the National Intelligence Agency came to claim the money and whether any laws were broken, a government statement said.

The discovery of the cash in both local and foreign currencies by the country’s anti-corruption commission caused a sensation in this West African nation where graft is rampant.

Buhari has ordered the suspension of the director-general of the intelligence agency, Ambassador Ayo Oke, until the investigation is complete, the statement said.

The investigation has been given two weeks to report to the president.

Separately, Buhari has ordered an investigation into alleged wrongdoing in the award of contracts under the government office that coordinates the humanitarian response in Nigeria’s northeast, which for years has suffered from the Boko Haram Islamic insurgency.

 

The secretary to the federal government, David Babachir Lawal, has been suspended pending that investigation, the statement said.

 Buhari won election in 2015 on a promise to halt corruption.
…

Beijing is looking for foreign contractors to help find oil and gas under the South China Sea but expects to meet resistance because other governments contest its claims and any discoveries may bring low returns.

China’s state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp. issued a tender last week for foreign companies to join it in exploring for fossil fuels in 22 tracts south of the country’s coastline. The blocks spanning a combined 47,270 square kilometers cover waters contested by Taiwan and Vietnam. Vietnam has been particularly outspoken since the 1970s about its claims.

Complicated matter

Foreign oil companies eyeing the bids, which close in September, probably worry that their ties to the Chinese maritime claim could spoil their reputation among rival South China Sea claimants or that any oil found would be a disputed asset, analysts say.

“Given the area in question, there are risks around the sovereignty issue,” said Thomas Pugh, commodities economist with Capital Economics in London. “If they enter a deal with China and Chinese firms, they could risk not being allowed to work with other countries in the region who are disputing ownership of the area.”

Disputes over ownership continue

Discoveries themselves could also be contested by other countries, said Raymond Wu, managing director of Taipei-based political risk consultancy e-telligence.

“The other contestant parties do not accept that China has sovereign claims,” Wu said. Foreign contractors, he said, must face “not just only the difficulty or uncertainty of finding oil, but who does the oil belong to? I don’t see many investors willing to get into it at this point.”

Vietnam and China rammed each other’s boats outside the disputed Gulf of Tonkin in May 2014 after Beijing allowed a Chinese oil rig to be placed there.

China has worried Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines as well over the past decade by increasing its control over about 95 percent of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer, resource-rich sea with artificial islands equipped for combat aircraft and radar systems.

Looking for oil costs big money

Oil and gas exploration also require expensive machinery, tough for some would-be applicants, while no one is sure how much fuel will turn up, said Zhao Xijun, deputy School of Finance dean at Renmin University of China. CNOOC may hope to offset those risks by bringing on foreign partners, he added.

“The first thing is that risk is pretty high and second, the technical requirements are rather high,” Zhao said. “So perhaps the organizations or companies able to participate in this project would face a certain hurdle.”

Falling oil prices further limit the value of exports from any undersea discoveries, analysts say. World oil prices have fallen from more than $100 per barrel in 2013 to about half that now. “The terms will probably have to be pretty good to attract foreign firms,” Pugh said.

Oil riches under the sea

The U.S. Energy Information Agency estimates 11 billion barrels’ worth of oil under the sea and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Much of that lies under the continental shelves of Southeast Asian claimants and has not been tapped.

The Philippines began more than 40 years ago looking for oil west of Palawan island, at Reed Bank. In 1984, a Philippine company found an oil field off in the same region and it supplies 15 percent of the annual oil consumption in the Philippines. Malaysia has secured about 5 billion barrels of oil and 80 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, more than any other of the five South China Sea claimants.

There is opportunity

CNOOC, which is China’s biggest offshore oil and gas producer, says on its website it will pick foreign partners with a “vision of win-win cooperation” and “flexible and favorable measures in the exploitation in the deep water area.”

The state run Global Times news website quotes Chinese analysts saying that because most exploration blocks are close to China itself, they are stable investments for foreign contractors.

China also has a deal with Vietnam over joint use within the Gulf of Tonkin, site of one oil block being offered for a contract.

“I don’t think that will be a problem, because China and Vietnam have made some compromises or demarcation trying to divide the territorial waters, so if that is the case, I think this kind of exploration will certainly [be] in the Chinese territorial domain,” said Andrew Yang, secretary-general with the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank in Taiwan.

But one expert told the Global Times that large-scale foreign drillers may still use extra caution because of the disputes.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order aimed at making it harder for companies to hire temporary foreign workers.

The order, called “Buy American — Hire American,” will take initial steps to reform the H1-B visa program.

H1-Bs allow employers — mostly high-tech firms — to hire skilled foreign workers to work in the U.S. for three years. There are 85,000 slots available each year, 65,000 for applicants with bachelor’s degrees and 20,000 for those with master’s degrees or higher.

“We are going to use a tool you all know very well. It’s called the sledgehammer,” Trump said Tuesday during a speech at Snap-on Tools, a company in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

The administration will require companies to demonstrate that the visas are going only to the most highly skilled workers in their fields.

“They [H1-Bs] should be given to the most skilled and highest-paid applicants and not be used to replace Americans,” Trump said.

WATCH: H1-B Visas Let US Firms Hire Foreigners for Specialized Jobs

Open to abuse

The administration says the visas, which can be renewed once, have contributed to a slide in American wages; 80 percent of H1-B visa holders are paid less than the median wage in their fields.

Howard University political science professor Ron Hira said the Trump administration is right: “The laws are loose, and so what happens is it’s become a way for employers to bring in cheaper, indentured workers as opposed to filling those skills gaps. As a result, the program is oversubscribed, and it’s actually undercutting Americans.”

When the application season opened for H1-Bs this month, federal offices were quickly flooded. As in recent years, there were so many applications that the U.S. government stopped accepting them within a week. Visa winners will be chosen by a computer-generated lottery.

Hira also said the intent of the program is good in serving as a guest worker program for when there are shortages of American workers. What got in the way? Politics.

Companies are making so much money, he said, that they are able to influence Congress to prevent changes in the H1-B program. And it’s all legal.

Fixing H1-Bs

Hira said that if the sledgehammer seemed to be velvet-coated, that’s because the executive order is not really intended to change policy so much as to guide policy changes. Federal agencies will have to implement it.

“The idea behind the executive order is to make it merit-based, that the really highly skilled people get preference over the cheap labor that goes on,” Hira said.

Overwhelmingly, India has been the biggest recipient of H1-B visas. The Department of Homeland Security reports that 71 percent of H1-Bs went to Indians in 2015. China was a distant second with 10 percent of the visas.

India’s success is attributed to its huge outsourcing firms that submit thousands of applications every year, increasing their chances of winning the visa lottery.  

Outsourcing firms, which supply services to other companies, are controversial because they are not subject to a federal requirement that they not displace American workers if they pay the H1-Bs at least $60,000 a year.

Hira said the new policy might help high-tech American companies at the expense of the outsourcing firms that abuse the system.

But “expect the Indian government to lobby against the changes,” he predicted.

The executive order also called on all federal agencies to buy American. It established a 220-day review on waivers and exemptions to government “Buy American” rules.

VOA’s Mil Arcega contributed to this report.
…

Not a US citizen? Got skills? Need work? This might be the visa for you.
…

A state-backed newspaper in the United Arab Emirates that was bought by an Emirati who oversees the English soccer club Manchester City is undergoing layoffs, those with knowledge of the firings said Monday.

They told The Associated Press that staffers at The National were informed Sunday they had been let go. They spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions.

 

It wasn’t clear how wide the layoffs were or what specific plans The National’s new owner had for the daily newspaper. Repeated calls to the newspaper rang unanswered Monday.

 

The layoffs come after months of turmoil at The National, which was founded in 2008 and staffed with top writers and editors from Western newspapers. Its owner, the state-backed firm Abu Dhabi Media, hoped it would become the Mideast’s standard for independent, hard-nosed newspapering.

 

But while the paper broke local stories on skyscraper fire safety and other issues, it largely stayed away from controversial topics in a country with strict laws governing speech.

 

International Media Investments, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Media Investment Corp. owned by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan of Manchester City, bought The National in November from Abu Dhabi Media. Sheikh Mansour’s media firm has a joint venture with Britain-based Sky to run the Arab satellite news channel Sky News Arabia.

 

In a statement, International Media Investments said: “The National is putting together its team, made of existing and new talent,” and will undergo “a digital transformation while retaining its print product.” It answered no questions from the AP about the layoffs.

 

Although the newspaper sale has yet to finalize, staffers had to reapply for jobs at the paper. All this comes as low global oil prices have pinched the economy of the United Arab Emirates, a federation of seven sheikhdoms on the Arabian Peninsula.

 

Sheikh Mansour is a member of the ruling family of Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s oil-rich capital. He also serves as a deputy prime minister and minister of presidential affairs.
…

Mini motorcycle and go-kart maker Monster Moto made a big bet on U.S. manufacturing by moving assembly to this Louisiana town in 2016 from China.

But it will be a long ride before it can stamp its products “Made in USA.”

The loss of nearly one out four U.S. factories in the last two decades means parts for its bike frames and engines must be purchased in China, where the manufacturing supply chain moved years ago.

“There’s just no way to source parts in America right now,” said Monster Moto Chief Executive Alex Keechle during a tour of the company’s assembly plant. “But by planting the flag here, we believe suppliers will follow.”

Monster Moto’s experience is an example of the obstacles American companies face as they, along with President Donald Trump, try to rebuild American manufacturing. U.S. automakers and their suppliers, for example, have already invested billions in plants abroad and would face an expensive and time-consuming transition to buy thousands of American-made parts if President Trump’s proposed “border tax” on imported goods were to become law.

When companies reshore assembly to U.S. soil – in Monster Moto’s case that took two years to find a location and negotiate support from local and state officials – they are betting their demand will create a local supply chain that currently does not exist.

For now, finding U.S.-based suppliers “remains one of the top challenges across our supplier base,” said Cindi Marsiglio, Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s vice president for U.S. manufacturing and sourcing. Wal-Mart partnered with Monster Moto and several other U.S. companies in a drive to increase spending on American-made goods by $250 billion by 2023 in response to consumer demand for American-made goods.

Their experience has shown Americans’ patriotic shopping habits have limits, namely when it comes to price.

Take Monster Moto’s bikes, which sell for between $249 to $749. Keechle, the CEO, says he can’t raise those prices for fear his price sensitive prospective customers will turn to less expensive rivals made in China.

“Consumers won’t give you a free pass just because you put ‘Made in USA’ on the box,” Keechle says. “You have to remain price competitive.”

Keeping a sharp eye on labor costs in their factory is one thing these U.S. Manufactures can control. They see replacing primarily lower-skilled workers on the assembly line with robots on American factory floors as the only way to produce here in a financially viable, cost-competitive way. It’s a trend that runs against the narrative candidate Donald Trump used to win the U.S. presidency.

 

Since taking office, Trump has continued promises to resurrect U.S. manufacturing’s bygone glory days and bring back millions of jobs. On March 31, Trump directed his administration to clamp down on countries that abuse trade rules in a bid to end to the “theft of American prosperity.”

But it’s more complicated on the ground for companies like Monster Moto.

“It’s almost as if people think you can just unplug manufacturing in one part of the world and plug it in to the U.S. and everything’s going to be fine,” said David Abney, Chief Executive Officer of package delivery company United Parcel Service Inc., which helped Monster Moto reconfigure its supply chain to bring its Chinese-made parts to Ruston.

“It’s not something that happens overnight,” he said.

A White House official said that the Trump administration’s efforts to encourage manufacturers to reshore production will be focused on cutting regulations and programs to provide new skills to manufacturing workers.

“We recognize that the manufacturing jobs that come back to America might not all look like the ones that left,” a White House official said, “and we are taking steps to ensure that the American workforce is ready for that.”

Making robots great again

In Monster Moto’s cavernous warehouse in Ruston, boxes of imported parts that are delivered at one end then become bikes on a short but industrious assembly line of a few dozen workers.

A solitary, long-bearded worker by the name of Billy Mahaffey fires up the bikes to test their engine and brakes before a small group of workers puts them in boxes declaring: “Assembled in the USA.”

Helped by that label, Monster Moto has experienced a recent boom in demand from major customers that include Wal-Mart. The company expects to double production to 80,000 units and increase its assembly workers — who make $13 to $15 an hour — to 100 from around 40 in 2017.

The most likely components Monster Moto could produce in America first are black, welded-metal frames for bikes and go-karts, but they would have to automate production because human welders would be too expensive.

 

“We can’t just blow up our cost structure,” said Monster Moto President Rick Sukkar. “The only way to make it work in America is with robotics.”

The same principle applies for much larger manufacturers, such as automotive supplier Delphi Automotive PLC’s.

Chief Financial Officer Joe Massaro told analysts in February that 90 percent of the company’s hourly workforce is in “best-cost countries.”

When asked about shifting production to the United States from Mexico, Massaro said depending on what happens to trade rules “it would have to be much more of the sort of the automated type manufacturing operations just given… the labor differential there.”

That trend is already showing up in data compiled by Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

According to senior economist Rob Scott, not only did America lose 85,000 factories, or 23.5 percent of the total, from 1997 to 2014, but the average number of workers in a U.S. factory declined 14 percent to 44 in 2014 from 1997. According to Scott, much of the decline in workers was due to automation.

“We’re going to see more automation in this country because it makes good sense economically for every company,” said Hal Sirkin, a managing director at the Boston Consulting Group. “You can spend a lot of time bemoaning it, but that’s not going to change.”

Manufacturers say automated production requires fewer, but more skilled workers such as robot programmers and operators.

The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) estimates because of the “skills gap” there are 350,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs today in a sector that employs over 12 million people.

In Ruston, Mayor Ronny Walker bet on Monster Moto by guaranteeing the company’s lease because he wants to diversify the city’s economy, and envisions suppliers setting up alongside Monster Moto’s assembly plant.

“Could it take a long time to bring manufacturing back here?

Sure,” he says. “But you have to start somewhere.”
…

China’s economic recovery is gaining traction, with growth rising to its fastest pace in over a year in January-March.

The 6.9 percent annual pace of expansion for the world’s second-largest economy, reported Monday, surpassed economists’ forecasts and was an improvement from 6.8 percent growth in the last quarter of 2016.

Growth last was that strong in July-September of 2015.

Analysts said government spending and a property boom spurred by easy credit were the main factors helping to driving stronger demand.

China saw its slowest growth in nearly three decades in 2016, at 6.7 percent. The official full-year economic growth target for 2017 is 6.5 percent.

“Currently, China’s economy is demonstrating good signs of pickup in growth, overall price stability, expansion in employment and improvement in the international balance of payments,” Mao Shengyong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters in Beijing.

Fears of being dragged into a trade and currency war with the U.S. have abated after U.S. President Donald Trump toned down his previously antagonistic comments against Beijing.

A summit earlier this month with Chinese President Xi Jinping ended calmly, and the U.S. Treasury Department did not label China a currency manipulator in its latest assessment.

During the first quarter, investment in fixed assets such as factories expanded 9.2 percent from a year earlier, while retail sales grew 10 percent. Industrial production rose 6.8 percent, including a stronger-than- expected 7.6 percent year-on-year gain in March.

Although exports have also shown sharp improvement, strong lending and investment figures suggest Beijing is relying on its traditional strategy of powering growth through government stimulus. China’s leaders have been trying to shift to an approach based more on consumer demand but tend to open the spending and credit taps at times when growth appears to be slowing too much.

“The question we need to ask is whether this investment-led model is sustainable as the authorities have trouble taming credit,” said Raymond Yeung and David Qu, economists at ANZ.

The latest figures indicate China’s economy is on track to meet its official growth target — a good sign for China’s communist leaders, who don’t like surprises and are preparing for a twice-a-decade party congress in the autumn to appoint new leaders.

“The 6.5 percent target this year, you could say it’s more important than ever, because of the political reshuffle later this year,” said Amy Zhuang, chief Asia analyst at Nordea Markets. “At least being able to maintain the stability in growth is very, very important for Beijing.”

On a quarter-to-quarter basis, which is how other major economies report data, the economy lost steam, expanding just 1.3 percent. That’s slower than 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016.

The economists at ANZ said such figures should be viewed cautiously because they might reflect changes in how the government made adjustments for seasonal factors.

Economists say they expect the boost from the government’s policies and the property boom to persist for a few more months before fading later in the year.

Real estate plays an outsize role in fueling growth in the wider Chinese economy by spurring knock-on demand in the manufacturing and service sectors.

House prices will likely start cooling this year as tighter restrictions finally kick in, but Beijing will probably take steps to offset that decline with more stimulus to meet its annual growth target, Zhuang said.
…

Each day, millions of Americans drink purified water and other beverages from disposable plastic bottles. More than 60 million of those bottles are dumped in landfills or burned in incinerators daily. But a couple of American entrepreneurs are putting some of them to good use by recycling them into shoes.
…

You may have noticed: Much of the recent anti-immigration rhetoric in Washington most loudly comes from factions on the political right: H1B, H2B, it’s all about protecting American jobs.

But every step of the way, progressive groups — while pro-immigrant — are just as critical of foreign worker visas. Federal regulations on the books, they argue, are inherently insufficient to protect visa holders from abuse, whether through unwarranted recruitment fees, misrepresentation of job requirements, fraud or intimidation.

The issue plagues potential recruits, but also well-meaning businesses that can’t find enough Americans willing to take seasonal jobs. In Cape Cod, Massachusetts and other areas of the country whose economic models are centered on five-to-six-month tourist seasons, the work of H2B visa-holders becomes essential to business owners.

Employers worry, too

Tyler Hayes, vice president of Cape Cod Restaurants, says he is fortunate that his seasonal foreign workforce, mainly from Jamaica, has created a “family atmosphere” during his 20-year tenure with the company.

“Now, their children are coming in, working for us,” Hayes said.

But while Hayes can only point to the well-being of his own workforce, he acknowledges that at least in recent years, abuse of workers has not been inconceivable.

“There used to be these companies that would send out these big petitions,” Hayes recalled. “They bring in 100 or 200 people, get them in the country and then farm them out.”

In response, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) cracked down on abuse within the H2B system in 2015, both in order to prevent the exploitation of workers and to ensure U.S. workers’ awareness of available jobs.

Are regulations enough?

Elizabeth Mauldin, policy director at Centro de los Derechos del Migrante, Inc. (CDM) — the Center for Migrant Rights — calls those protections basic, including the right to receive a contract before entering the U.S. and protection from being charged a recruitment fee.

But many aspects of those existing regulations, she argues, are difficult to ensure, absent greater transparency in the recruitment process.

“It’s impossible to enforce a ban on charging workers fees,” Mauldin told VOA. “When workers are charged fees upfront, they are vulnerable to the same type of economic coercion across the board.” As a result, she notes, foreign workers become susceptible to wage theft and other abuses, regardless of their visa category.

Afraid to report

A 2013 report issued by CDM, whose findings were based on a survey and in-depth interviews with hundreds of H2B workers, found that 58 percent of respondents reported paying illegal recruitment fees, while 10 percent reported recruitment fraud — having paid a fee for a nonexistent job.

While there are mechanisms in place for foreign workers to report abuse, Mauldin argues that the disincentives are often too great.

“[Abusive employers] will say, at the end of the season, ‘If you pay those fees, then we will be more likely to recruit you in the future,’ or ‘If you don’t report these violations, then our recruiter will choose you again next year,’” Mauldin said.

Jane Nichols Bishop, founder and president of Peak Season Workforce, a family-run company that helps Cape Cod-area businesses secure H2B visas, says the mechanisms in place to prevent exploitation, including audits by the Department of Labor, have largely worked. But in cases where they do not, she says it’s in everyone’s interest that the infractions are reported.

“If there are abuses, we would like to see them caught,” Nichols said. “They give everyone who does this and who works at this very successfully a very bad name.”

Workers empower themselves

Despite ongoing reports of abuse nationwide, there is some hope for affected foreigners outside of federal regulations, thanks to the internet. A bilingual workers’ rights initiative, which Mauldin calls the Yelp for migrant workers, allows workers to review recruiters and share their experiences, and create a self-empowering community in the process.

 
…

Steeped in centuries of seemingly impenetrable tea tradition, Afghanistan’s capital is getting a little coffee buzz.

Nargis Aziz Shahi says business has been increasing day by day since she opened iCafe a couple of weeks ago. Looking a little like a brick-walled Starbucks with a distinctively homey Afghan feel, it’s attracting a mostly youthful clientele drawn by free internet service and books to peruse over a cup or two.

“There were three key objectives that led me open the cafe: 1) to introduce coffee to Afghans who mostly don’t know coffee and its taste and benefits; 2) to provide a place for our youth to carry out social activities; and 3) to provide job opportunities for young people,” Shahi told VOA’s Afghan service.

Tea came to Afghanistan early

Afghanistan was introduced to tea early because of its location on ancient trade routes. The Chinese traded silk and tea for other commodities. Tea became part of the country’s hospitality for guests. Just about every family has its own recipe.

Today, Afghanistan is the world’s largest tea consumer, with each person consuming an average of almost 4.5 kilograms — more than 1,500 cups — per year in 2012. By comparison, the U.S. ranked 72nd at 0.4 kilograms per person.

Only the Russian Federation and Britain, with much larger populations, import more tea.

Coffee culture gets a start

Dr. Nabi Misdaq, adviser to President Ashraf Ghani, has visited iCafe. He regards coffee drinking as a new, enlightening culture in Afghanistan.

“It is a good beginning,” Misdaq said. “It is a profitable business, because many young people come here to read books and exchange ideas. I am sure that this will also lead to the opening of new shops.”

The cafe also serves as a place for young Afghans to carry out social and cultural activities. They come to iCafe to attend literary programs and poetry contests.

The female customers say there are few other places where they can get together and entertain themselves, but they maintain that they come to the shop to relax and enjoy.

“I am very happy that we have a coffee shop in Kabul,” said customer Samira Seerat. “It is a very good place for women to visit. There are in fact no appropriate places for women in Kabul, and Afghanistan as a whole, to visit, because our people believe that women cannot go to restaurants.”
…

Steeped in centuries of traditional tea drinking, Afghanistan is getting a little coffee buzz for a change. Hikmat Sorosh has more on this popular new trend from the Afghan capital, Kabul, in this story narrated by Michael Lipin, with additional reporting by Khalil Noorzaie in Herat.
…

Along northeastern Cape Cod off the coast of Massachusetts, April doesn’t usually equate with sunshine and sandcastles. The month is mostly a time of waiting for the fog and chill to lift off the Atlantic Ocean and the tourists to arrive.

But this year is a problem for seasonal businesses, whose model is built around five-to-six-month, low-skilled jobs in areas like hospitality. Few Americans are willing to fill them and now, thousands of foreign seasonal workers may not be allowed into the U.S. to take them.

Changes to the U.S. temporary work visa program, called H2B, are keeping out the workers that businesses count on.

For affected businesses, the financial loss could be plenty.

“It could be 20 percent,” said Allen Sylvester, president of American Tent & Table, Inc., a family-owned tent rental and party accessory business in Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Sylvester, who has been with the company since 1996, says it earns roughly 85 to 90 percent of its profits in five months — the region’s outdoor wedding season. Fully staffed, the company employs seven to eight Americans and 13 H2B visa workers.

Normally it’s the former group Sylvester has a hard time hiring. But last September, Congress failed to renew a provision that effectively quadrupled the number of H2B visas available in 2016 by not counting returnees against the annual cap. This year, instead of potentially 264,000 visas, there are 66,000 — half allocated in the spring, the other half in the fall.

Businesses in colder areas like Cape Cod, which typically have later start dates, find themselves at a loss. By the time many could complete their visa applications, the cap had been reached.

“Instead of bringing 3,000 workers here, we right now are bringing 300 workers,” said Jane Nichols Bishop, president of Peak Season Workforce, a family-owned business that helps local companies secure annual H2B visas.

Bishop, who calls herself “Mama Visa,” says the 90-day application process that businesses must follow to gain seasonal employment is stringent, including evidence of advertising to recruit American workers.

Of the 171 applications she personally filed for clients, Bishop says 24 made their way through the Department of Homeland Security before all the visas were gone.

Why not hire more Americans?

At 3.4 percent, the February unemployment rate in Massachusetts is lower than the current national average, 4.5 percent, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But as Falmouth, Massachusetts, resident Paul Skudder said, the numbers don’t paint the whole picture on Cape Cod, a community with a growing number of retirees and decreasing number of youth.

“There is a limited number of job opportunities on the Cape for college-educated professional or near professional people, which overall leads to a little bit of an exodus of bright, educated young people,” Skudder said.

Eligible job seekers who are willing to accept low-skilled employment, generally need a permanent source of income. And students can offer just three months of labor during their summer breaks, not five or six.

The well-being of the younger population is also a factor. In 2015, Cape Cod suffered the highest per capita death rate by opioid overdose in Massachusetts and remains one of the most affected areas in the country.

“A lot of the kids I used to know have now passed away,” said Prince Wright, who attended high school in Falmouth. “That’s the big problem right now … most of our locals are not coming in no more. Either they’re locked up or they moved away because of the changes on the Cape.”

More effort needed?

But along Main Street in the Cape’s largest town, not all are convinced that businesses are trying their best to hire local.

“It’s good for the [foreigners] that are coming over here on work visas, but it also takes away from the people that are living on the streets that can work,” said Mary Richard. “I just think it’s hard on the people here too.”

Politicians are divided on the H2B visa program, seeing it as either economically exploitative or a job-killer for Americans.

Republicans, who control both chambers of Congress, send mixed messages. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, the country’s top law enforcement official, has called the H2B program “detrimental to wages and job opportunities of American workers.” But Donald Trump, before he was president, employed H2B workers during peak resort season at his Florida golf club, Mar-a-Lago.

H2B-reliant businesses worry that the visa is unfairly lumped into Trump’s hard-line stance on immigration. And in Bishop’s mind, some legislators simply don’t understand seasonal economies.

“When people come to Cape Cod and the islands, they come to see and visit us. It’s full employment, we are busy, there’s traffic, so they don’t even realize there is a labor shortage,” Bishop said. “But when you come here in January, you may be the only car on the road for quite a while.”

Hiring strategy

Jim Underdah, general manager at the Coonamessett Inn, considers himself one of the lucky few to secure his share of foreign seasonal workers from Jamaica. Still, a backlog in the system has delayed their arrival and forced him to repurpose the limited workforce he retains year-round.

In anticipation of this, Underdah says many businesses like his choose to employ workers full-time even during the offseason, when he doesn’t need them.

“I have people in the kitchen that we work 40 hours for the winter, so they’re not going to leave me,” Underdah said. “They’re gonna say, ‘Hey, they’re treating us good.’ They’re going to be here this spring. They’re going to get me through till hopefully the workers get in.”

Paul Dean, who runs a seafood retail and catering business, was not as lucky. Lacking the workforce he needs to keep his multiple operations running, he says he may be forced to close one of his locations a couple days a week.

Like Sylvester, Dean predicts this would amount to a loss of 20 percent of annual income.

“That means I’m buying 20 percent less product from local vendors,” Dean said. “We’re obviously collecting 20 percent less in meals tax toward the state. We’re not paying payroll taxes … there’s a huge trickle-down effect.”

Dean and Sylvester are crossing their fingers for a last-ditch effort by lawmakers to reinstate an H2B returning worker exemption before April 28, as part of its fiscal year 2017 federal spending bill. But in case that doesn’t happen, Sylvester offers last-resort advice for summer tourists.

“If you’re going to stay over, bring your sheets and some towels,” he joked, “because there’s going to be no one to clean your room.”
…

At first glance, U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen may have little in common.

Yellen is an academic economist and veteran of Democratic administrations who is committed to an open global economy, while Trump is a real estate mogul with an electoral base suspicious of the economic order Yellen helped to create.

Yet the two may have interests in common now that Trump is president and both want to get as many Americans working as possible.

Since her appointment as Fed chair in February 2014, Yellen has kept interest rates low and she currently pledges to raise them only slowly even though unemployment, at 4.5 percent, is at its lowest in nearly 10 years.

Meanwhile, Trump’s election campaign promises to cut taxes, spend money on infrastructure and deregulate banking, have helped propel a surge in the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index to its highest level since the internet stocks crash 16 years ago.

Former Fed staff and colleagues who know Yellen said Trump’s surprising remarks this week in a Wall Street Journal interview, in which he did not rule out Yellen’s reappointment to a new four-year term next year, are not as outlandish as they may appear now that the president has a vested interest in keeping markets and the economy on an even keel.

And the same staff and colleagues say Yellen may well accept reappointment, despite Trump’s criticism of her during last year’s election campaign.

Many in Trump’s Republican party have called for tighter monetary policy and a less activist Fed, but “the president would not really find that useful,” said former Fed vice chair Donald Kohn.

If Trump fills three existing Federal Reserve board vacancies with people Yellen thinks she could work with, “it would be really difficult to turn down” a reappointment when her term as chair expires in February 2018.

“If she continues to do well, he’d be nuts to ditch her for an unknown quantity,” said University of California, Berkeley, economics professor Andrew Rose, a long-time colleague and co-author with Yellen of an oft-cited study of labor markets.

Yellen took over from Ben Bernanke as Fed chair in February 2014 with the U.S. economic recovery from the 2008 financial crisis still on shaky ground, and she has made no secret she puts a priority on growth in jobs and wages and a broad recovery in U.S. household wealth.

In a slow return to more normal monetary policy, Yellen has stopped the purchase of additional financial securities by the Fed and in December 2015 began raising short term interest rates for the first time in 10 years.

So far those policy shifts have been engineered with little apparent impact on job growth, and so mesh with Trump’s core election campaign promises to restore employment and earnings.

The slow rise in interest rates in the past year has also happened while U.S. stock prices have risen to record highs, though Trump has claimed the credit for himself.

Precedent for Fed Chair to Stay On

There is precedent for Trump to stick with a former president’s Fed chair appointment. Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the three previous Fed chairs, served at least two four-year terms and were nominated by both Democratic and Republican presidents.

However it may be a more difficult step for Trump.

During last year’s election campaign, Trump accused Yellen of accepting orders from then President Obama to keep interest rates low for political reasons, and he said he would replace her as Fed chair because she is not a Republican party member.

In a particularly biting moment last year, in a campaign video advertisement, he labeled her as among the “global special interests” who had ruined life for middle America.

 

The Fed on Thursday said it had no response to Trump’s comments published on Wednesday on Yellen and or on whether Yellen would consider a second term.

Much Could Still Go Wrong

Some of Trump’s advisers and some Republican lawmakers want a more conservative Fed in which the chair has less power and would see a Yellen reappointment as yet another step away from his promise to “drain the swamp” of the Washington establishment.

There are also three current vacancies on the Fed’s seven member Board of Governors, and unorthodox new members could make it difficult for Yellen to manage policy or accept another four-year term.

But if the choice is her consensus style or someone unproven in their ability to manage public and market expectations, “he’d be wise to reappoint her,” said Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed staffer and Berkeley colleague of Yellen’s currently at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“I don’t see what is in his interests to appoint someone who is going to jack up interest rates.”
…

With economic growth rates close to 7 percent, Laos is a star in South East Asia, buoyed by investment and business ties with China, the country’s largest investor.

In a new assessment the Lao government and Asian Development Bank predict the country’s good economic fortunes will continue.

The ADB said national output (GDP) should reach 6.9 percent in 2017, and 7 percent in 2018, despite fiscal constraints and weaker global demand for minerals in recent years.

Rattanatay Luanglathbandith, Vientiane-based ADB public management specialist, said, “The key driver of Laos’ economic growth is mainly the resources sector, hydropower and mining, namely copper, silver and gold.”

Laos’ ambition as the “battery of South East Asia” has seen development of hydro-power dams with 10 now operating. Three more proposed for the Mekong River are moving forward despite criticism from conservationists because of their environmental impact, especially on fish stocks.

Meanwhile, the Tourism Development Department says tourism contributed $724 million to the national budget in 2016. Visitor arrivals stood at 4.23 million, down from 4.68 million a year earlier, but Laos is spending $61 million to expand Wattay International airport.

Service sector growing

Rattanatay said the tourism industry is a key to absorbing rising numbers entering the workforce.

“The expansion of the services’ sector is happening right now. [It will] start to absorb labor into the total labor employed, but it happens slowly in the hotel, restaurant and retail trade and then some service provider in the IT sector,” Ratanatay told VOA.

China is Laos’ largest investor with more than $6.7 billion in 760 projects, according to a report by the Xinhua news agency. Behind China, the other key trade and investment partners are Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Martin Stuart-Fox, emeritus professor of history at the University of Queensland, says Laos must manage the interests of China and Vietnam.

“The problem for Laos is balancing the Chinese money against the Vietnamese, the traditional Vietnamese influence, particularly the Vietnamese influence through the military. And there’s the Chinese money coming in and the special economic zones – some are a complete set up run by a single Chinese company [for] casinos, money laundering, and prostitution and gambling,” Stuart-Fox told VOA.

China is also contributing 70 percent of the total cost of the $5.8 billion China-Lao railway. The 410-kilometer segment is part of China’s Kunming-Singapore rail link. Chairman of the Lao National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Oudeth Saouvannavong, told Lao media the rail link is seen as “crucial in boosting development, generating jobs and income for local people”.

Growth impacting society

But economists say rapid growth has led to fiscal and budgetary issues, as well as social considerations. In 2017 budget expenditures are forecast at $3.92 billion against revenues of $2.89 billion, a deficit of $1.07 billion.

Buavanh Vilavong, a Lao scholar at the Australian National University, said the Lao economy suffers from chronic fiscal deficits due to a narrow revenue base and “macro-economic mismanagement”. He said the government is taking steps at reform with improved economic governance and “fiscal consolidation.”

ADB’s Rattanatay says for the long term, “The government has to create a favorable business environment to encourage the development of small and medium enterprises in order to diversify the economy from the resources sector to more labor intensive manufacturing and service sector.”

The Asian Development Bank says the 23 percent of Laos’ seven million population living in poverty needs to be addressed.

Holly High, a senior research fellow from Sydney University’s department of anthropology, says promising prosperity is a cornerstone of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party platform.

“So if they are generating a lot of economic growth that is certainly a step towards delivering on their promises, but it’s not going to be adequate if this isn’t delivered in a way that’s perceived to be equitable,” High told VOA.

Analysts say Laos faces high rates of corruption. The Berlin-based Transparency International in 2016 ranked Laos at 123 of 176 nations on its corruption perception index. Stuart-Fox says corruption and the black economy, that disregards government rules, remains a major issue.

“It’s massively corrupt. Absolutely massively corrupt. If you are the top of the party you get a lot of money, and there’s a lot of Chinese money coming in, of course, and there are top people in the politburo who are extremely wealthy,” said Stuart-Fox.

High says with the backdrop of growth, there is also a need for “more venues for political dissent” for public debate on social and economic issues.

“Even when there’s good news, about say economic growth or poverty declining, people are still suspicious because there’s not a lot of trust in the political sphere in Laos,” she said.
…

South Korea is expecting tough trade talks ahead with the United States after President Donald Trump strongly criticized the free trade agreement between the two countries for dramatically increasing the U.S. trade deficit.

A report by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) laid out key trade objectives for the Trump administration that include “breaking down unfair trade barriers” and ensuring American businesses have a “fair opportunity to compete.” And it specifically points to South Korea, along with China and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), as egregious examples of unbalanced and unfair trade.

The South Korea/U.S. free trade agreement (KORUS FTA) was the largest trade deal implemented during the administration of former President Barack Obama. Since it took effect in 2012, the U.S. trade deficit with South Korea has more than doubled. U.S. exports to South Korea fell by $1.2 billion, while U.S. imports from South Korea grew by more than $13 billion. “Needless to say,” the report notes, “this is not the outcome the American people expected from that agreement.”

”Those are harsh words and that is the economic and political reality that we have to deal with,” said Jeffrey Jones, an international trade attorney with the law firm Kim & Chang at a recent Korea International Trade Association forum.

Deficit vs. investment

Business leaders and some former trade officials in Seoul have voiced concern that the Trump administration is being overly critical of the KORUS FTA by putting too much emphasis on the trade deficit that is just one aspect of a complex and evolving economic relationship.

For example, Korean investment in the United States, from companies like Samsung and Hyundai, have created more than 45,000 American jobs. “Direct investments Korean companies have made in the United States since KORUS have exceeded trade deficits with Korea,” James Kim, chairman of both GM Korea and the American Chamber of Commerce, said in a recent Korea Times interview.

However Kim also said South Korea could do more to lower non-tariff related trade barriers in the auto industry, that account for 80 percent of the U.S. trade deficit, by relaxing environmental and inspection regulations.

There is also an argument to be made that the KORUS FTA helped prevent the trade deficit from getting worse, said Jones, who is also a former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea. All foreign imports into South Korea have been in decline in recent years. U.S. imports dropped only by 2.8 percent, while Japanese imports are down 15 percent, Australian imports are down by 20 percent, and imports from the EU are down almost 10 percent.

And Jones notes that last year’s $23 billion South Korea trade deficit with the United States is small in comparison with the U.S. trade deficit with Japan that is five times higher and with China that is 10 times as large.

Broader alliance

While American business leaders in Seoul say it is important to understand the complex reasons for the current U.S. trade deficit with South Korea, former trade officials say it is also important to recognize how it took years of tough negotiations and compromises to reach such a comprehensive free trade deal.

Kim Jong-hoon, the former director of the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, who was a key trade negotiator during the KORUS talks, said his country made  major concessions.  

“Everybody knows that Korea’s tariff was much higher than those of the U.S. So when we talk about reduction, then Korea had a deeper cut, deeper, deeper cut than the U.S. did,” said Kim.

Wendy Cutler, the former USTR chief KORUS negotiator, who is now vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the trade agreement also provided a framework to resolve disputes that were undermining trust and cooperation in other areas of the U.S./South Korea alliance.

“In our bilateral relationship it was often the economic issues that were really the source of tension. And so once we were able to conclude KORUS, we found that our overall alliance became stronger,” said Cutler.

Business leaders with the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea recommend that the South Korean government agree to cooperate with the Trump administration to improve the FTA, which is now five years old and in need of upgrading.

Youmi Kim contributed to this report
…