YCLOAK

New data Thursday paint a mixed picture of the U.S. economy.

A report on the job market shows a slight increase in the number of people signing up for unemployment assistance last week. But the data also show that the number of people laid off remains at a low level consistent with a strong job market, where it has been for well over two years.

Economists say strong employment data will encourage the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates at its next meeting in June. The U.S. unemployment rate will be updated late next week.

A separate report shows the United States buys more merchandise abroad than it sells to foreigners. April’s trade gap was the second-worst in two years.

The trade data could mean slower economic growth. Friday, experts will publish an update to the U.S. GDP for the first few months of this year. A survey of economists shows they expect it to decline slightly from the disappointing seven-tenths of a percent annual rate reported earlier.

 
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Nathan Singletary is beyond the traditional retirement age, but he’s only just beginning a new career — helping other low-income, unemployed Americans over age 55 find jobs.

Singletary got his job through the half-century-old Senior Community Service Employment Program, a training and placement program underwritten by taxpayers aimed at putting older Americans back into the workforce.

 

President Donald Trump says there are too few participants who find work that’s not paid for by the federal government. This week, he proposed deleting the $434 million program from the federal budget — a strike at a piece of President Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty.

 

“That would mean a great deal of hardship, for me and the people who come to us for help,” Singletary, 67, said last week from his desk at the AARP Foundation’s offices in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. “It’s hard enough to find a job at this age.”

 

He says a friend told him about Trump’s plan around the time the president celebrated his 100th day in office three miles down the Susquehanna River at the Ames Companies’ thriving wheelbarrow factory. There, Trump signed executive orders to “defend American workers and companies.” It’s part of Trump’s agenda to boost American workers through apprenticeships, fairer trade deals and other incentives for employers to create jobs here in the U.S.

 

The seniors’ employment program that Trump proposes to eliminate provides part-time work at minimum wage. Participants have to live locally, have income close to or below the poverty level and be over 55.

 

In Harrisburg, participants accepted into the program are coached by Singletary at the AARP offices on how to explore online job listings. He, in turn, is being trained by another program participant, employment specialist Luz Rivera, to help participants find a job and get the required training.

 

Singletary watches as Rivera, 68, asks a newer participant, Luis Quinones, if he has computer skills. “I’m computer illiterate,” Quinones, 66, says with a grin. Rivera signs him up for computer training and a second year in the program.

 

About two-thirds of the participants in Harrisburg are able to find jobs not subsidized by the federal government, according to the program’s literature. The figure for the whole Senior Community Service Employment Program nationally is lower — at or slightly less than half, according to a 2015 government study Trump cites as evidence for nixing the program.

 

Across town, Jimmie Cobb, a 63-year-old sous chef by trade, recently scored a full-time position — with benefits — as a custodian at the State Museum of Pennsylvania, where the program had placed him temporarily last fall.

 

“This job is a comfort to me,” the Harrisburg resident says during a break. He says he “just walked in” to the AARP offices nine months ago, filled out paperwork and a day later was undergoing training. “I could not find more than temporary work before.”

 

It may seem like a good time to be an older worker seeking a job in an economy recovering from recession. Unemployment among Americans over 55 is at 3.3 percent, lower than the nation’s already healthy 4.4 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But older Americans face unique challenges finding work, including health problems, living in rural areas and the plain fact that they have a limited working future, various studies have shown. A 2012 analysis by a private contractor for the Labor Department found that job placement among those participating in the seniors’ employment program declined with age.

 

The government estimates that by 2020, workers age 55 and over will make up a quarter of the workforce. The Labor Department says the seniors’ employment program has helped more than 1 million workers in this age group enter the workforce.

 

But Trump says that’s not enough. His budget plan says 68,000 people a year get some support from the program. But at a cost of nearly $6,500 per participant, the program “fails to meet its other major statutory goals of fostering economic self-sufficiency,” it says. The document says the seniors could get help instead under the 2014 Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act programs, which apply to would-be workers of all ages.

 

Singletary estimates that locally about 40 percent of people who qualify for the seniors’ training and placement positions “simply are going through the motions, show up one time to fulfill a requirement and you don’t see them again.”

 

Singletary says, “They spoil the whole outlook for the agency and the participants that want to do things for themselves.”

 

It’s not clear whether the Republican-controlled Congress will go along with Trump’s proposal to kill the program. Even some of his allies have declared the president’s budget dead on arrival, like most presidents’ budget proposals.

 

Here in Dauphin County — a blotch of Democratic blue surrounded by red Trump Country — the unemployment rate is 4.5 percent, slightly higher than the national average.

 

About 53 percent of program participants in Harrisburg are white and 42 percent are black, according to Elizabeth Stachiw, SCSEP’s project director for the AARP Foundation, a recipient of the federal grant money. About 16 percent consider themselves Hispanic, Latino and Spanish. The rest are Asian and American Indian, she said.

 

Nationally, about half of the current participants are white.

 

“We are not thinking about it,” she says of Trump’s proposed cuts. “We are focused on helping individuals 55 and over re-entering the workplace regain their confidence in order to find jobs in today’s market.”
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OPEC and other oil nations meeting Thursday appeared set to extend their production cuts in an effort to shore up prices. But the intended impact could be short-lived.

That’s due to U.S. shale producers. With crude prices above $50 a barrel from lows of last year, they are increasingly moving back into the market. Their output already is partially offsetting the cuts, and even more U.S. companies are poised to return if prices rise further.

 

The upshot is that the price of oil — and derived products like fuel — is unlikely to increase much in coming months, analysts say. That will be welcome news to consumers and energy-hungry businesses worldwide but could continue to strain the budgets of some of the more economically-troubled oil-producing nations, like Venezuela and Brazil.

 

The latest reductions have been in effect since November, when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day. Non-OPEC countries led by Russia chipped in with a further 600,000-barrel reduction.

 

Ahead of the meeting, the organization announced that Equatorial Guinea had joined, expanding OPEC membership to 14.

 

With the deal due to expire at the end of June, OPEC oil ministers appeared ready to prolong it up to nine months even before they sat down to make a formal decision.

 

Saudi Oil Minister Khalid A. al-Falih spoke of a “9-month straight” extension going into Thursday’s meeting. Iran’s Bijan Namdar Zanganeh floated possible extensions of three months, six months or even a year and said his country had “no difficulty” with any of the options, while Jabbar Ali Hussein al-Luiebi, his Iraqi counterpart, mentioned “the scenario of a nine-month freeze.”

 

Al-Falih said that the cuts had achieved a key aim. “Inventories are drawing down,” he told reporters.

 

But even with the reductions, oil prices have risen less than OPEC hoped for from last year’s levels. At over $50 a barrel, benchmark crude sits substantially below the highs reached in 2014, but is priced high enough to bring back into the market U.S. producers who eased back as prices tumbled last year. U.S. shale production requires a higher price to be profitable.

 

U.S. output since last year has increased by nearly a million barrels a day to a daily 9 million barrels. That already puts American producers in the league with oil giants Saudi Arabia and Russia and cuts further into OPEC’s past ability to play a role in setting prices and supplies.

More than 400 oil rigs are now working U.S. shale fields — an increase of more than 120 percent compared with a year ago. And U.S. producers are poised to expand more, even if prices tick upward only moderately as a result of an oil-cut extension by OPEC and its partners.

 

Commerzbank cited data from the U.S. Department of Energy saying U.S. production was roughly 540,000 barrels per day higher in mid-May than at the start of the year.

 

“This offsets nearly half of OPEC’s production cuts,” it noted.

 

Even a decision to maintain oil cuts thus is likely to only kick the can down the road from Thursday’s meeting until OPEC ministers convene again late this year. Crude prices are unlikely to rise substantially — and that means the era of windfall profits appears to be over for member nations, at least for now.

 

While analysts at research firm IHS Markit expect OPEC revenues to rise modestly this year after dropping from their peak of $1.2 trillion in 2012, “the total will be less than half the level of 2012, when prices were more than double current levels.”

 

 
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Just as President Xi Jinping was launching the One Belt, One Road initiative to expand China’s geo-economic footprint, a former high-level U.S. trade official raised concerns that Beijing has been reversing its policies of reform and keeping the market to itself.

Charlene Barshefsky, who worked as the U.S. Trade Representative under President Bill Clinton and witnessed China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, told a group of corporate executives gathered in Tokyo that “China has stopped the process of economic reform and opening, and instead has put in place a spate of measures that are zero-sum, highly mercantilist, and discriminate against U.S. and foreign companies.”

Sinicizing the Chinese economy

Barshefsky accuses Beijing of “Sinicizing” the Chinese economy, all the while taking advantage of other countries’ open markets.

The former U.S. trade representative’s remarks echo sentiments revealed in the latest Business Climate Survey put out by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, which represents nearly 1,000 companies doing business there.

Respondents to the survey said it seems “China has gone backwards … more regulations, taxes and local company market share protectionism.” Others noted that “despite a long track record of employing and training locals and investing in the local community, when the economy gets tough, the foreign firm is always seen as somehow not friendly to China.”

Golden days over?

William Zarit, head of AmCham China, tells VOA that “25 percent of our companies are either reducing investment or not increasing investment — that’s one out of four companies. Some companies are looking elsewhere in Asia, and some companies are looking back to North America.”

In another sign of how China is losing its luster in the eyes of foreign investors, the latest Business Climate Survey shows the percentage of companies that consider China a high priority investment destination has dropped below 60 percent. Zarit points out that nearly 60 percent “would seem to be good except that three or four years earlier, it was over 80 percent.”

 

Watch: William Zarit, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China

Dangers despite continued presence

“Every company has to be in China, to a certain extent,” says Georgetown University’s Ted Moran, professor of business and economics.

While a majority of companies may choose to maintain a presence, their decisions to expand less rapidly “are also a danger,” Moran says. 

“They may be there, but they’re not going to have as strong value-added, they’re not going to expand as rapidly, they’re not going to introduce their best technology,” which in turn will confine China to a work bench economy, instead of one where companies feel comfortable bringing in operations with higher technology components.

Watch: Ted Moran, Georgetown professor of business and economics

‘A lot of things we have to consider’

Barshefsky, the former trade official, calls on President Donald Trump to either renegotiate the trade relationship with China or to revive the Trans-Pacific Partnership led by the United States. 

A Chinese trade official, speaking at the same forum, defended Beijing’s policies, saying the reform, although having slowed down, is still going on, and “there are a lot of things we have to consider.” The official, Long Yongtu, who now presides over the Boao Forum for Asia, also warned foreign companies to buckle up for stiff competition coming from Chinese domestic companies.

Resurgence of the state in the Chinese economy

Ever since China started accumulating more and more capital and demonstrating less and less hesitancy to use that capital to advance its interests abroad, many have voiced the concern that as Beijing’s investment spreads, so will its politics. Lately, concern over expansion of the state sector in the Chinese economy as well as the government-guided overseas investment strategy and potential consequences have grown louder.

In a report issued earlier this year by the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow, pointed to official figures released by the People’s Bank of China that corporate loans issued to government-backed firms rose from 35 percent in 2013 to 60 percent in 2014, the latest year official figures were available.

While one negative of pumping money into state-owned enterprises is that less capital and less market share would be available to smaller, private firms, other concerns have to do with both the financial viability of this approach and how it could impact not only China but the United States and other countries.

In a sign of both the ballooning footprint of Chinese state-owned companies in the world economy as well as the uncertainties of their fates, three Chinese state-owned companies made Fortune Magazine’s Global 500 list in 2016, but two of the three, China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec (a producer of chemical products) saw significant reductions in revenue in 2016 (more than 30 percent from the previous year), and a loss of profit of 56.7 percent and 30.6 percent, respectively.

Rory MacFarquhar, a former White House economics and finance official, warns that if the Chinese government continues to prop up state firms that he says are “more indebted, less profitable and less productive than private firms,” and use them to channel China’s plans and objectives abroad, it could have serious spillovers for other countries, including the United States, because the presence of these companies could potentially “distort the competitive playing field, and their outward investment may raise national security concerns.”

One Belt, One Road

President Xi promised that China would add billions of dollars’ worth of investment to the One Belt, One Road initiative. Asked if it is true that American companies are giving the initiative the “cold shoulder,” as some media reports have suggested, Zarit, the president of AmCham China, replied: “A number of AmCham China members are closely following OBOR developments to gauge progress and substantive opportunities for their respective companies, although some members still view the project with a bit of skepticism.

“Despite OBOR still being a fledgling initiative, the Chinese have rolled out this Xi Jinping presidential priority through an oversized summit with undersized substance. Having said that, American companies are interested in OBOR if it makes business sense.”
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China recently rolled out a global economic initiative known as One Belt, One Road, named after the ancient Silk Road. Chinese President Xi Jinping says the initiative is aimed at promoting international cooperation, but former U.S. officials and some business executives are concerned that China is not keeping its doors as open as it claims. Natalie Liu has more from Washington.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday that his department is reviewing licenses for Boeing Co and Airbus to sell aircraft to Iran, telling lawmakers he will increase sanctions pressure on Iran, Syria and North Korea.

“We will use everything within our power to put additional sanctions on Iran, Syria and North Korea to protect American lives,” Mnuchin said in testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee. “I can assure you that’s a big focus of mine and I discuss it with the president.”

He did not elaborate on the review of the aircraft licenses, which are tied to Iran’s compliance with a 2015 agreement with world powers to freeze its nuclear weapons development.

IranAir has agreed to buy a total of 200 U.S. and European passenger aircraft worth a total of $35 billion — $37 billion at list prices, though such deals typically include big discounts.

They include 80 passenger jets from Boeing, 100 from its European rival Airbus and 20 turboprop planes from Franco-Italian supplier ATR. All of the aircraft need U.S. export licenses.
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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told lawmakers on Wednesday that they should vote to increase the government’s borrowing authority — and avert a disastrous economic default — before their August recess.

Within hours, the conservative House Freedom Caucus said it would oppose such a vote unless certain conditions are met.

The timeline is earlier than previous estimates. It had been expected that Congress wouldn’t have to act on the politically painful measure until sometime this fall, but tax revenues are coming in lower than previously estimated.

Mnuchin also urged the House Ways and Means Committee to pass the debt limit legislation as a bill without controversial additions, such as spending cuts sought by conservatives, that could complicate its approval.

“We can all discuss how we cut spending in the future and how we deal with the budget going forward but it is absolutely critical … that we keep the credit of the United States as the most critical issue,” Mnuchin said.

Pelosi favors debt limit increase

Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California, have promised to support a debt limit increase provided it’s not weighed down by GOP policy changes. But such a vote is sure to be painful for conservative Republicans who opposed hiking the debt limit, presently set at almost $20 trillion.

In a statement, the Freedom Caucus said it would oppose a “clean raising of the debt ceiling,” and “we demand that any increase of the debt ceiling be paired with policy that addresses Washington’s unsustainable spending by cutting where necessary, capping where able, and working to balance in the near future.”

 

The Freedom Caucus counts several dozen conservatives who wield considerable clout in the House.

 

‘Extraordinary measures’ 

White House budget director Mick Mulvaney told a separate House panel that the reason for the new deadline is that “receipts currently are coming a little bit slower than expected.”

 

Mnuchin said in a letter to lawmakers in March that that he has started employing bookkeeping measures to avoid breaching the debt limit.

Those maneuvers, set out in law, are deemed “extraordinary measures,” but in reality they have been employed numerous times by Mnuchin’s predecessors to buy time until Congress could pass the legislation needed to raise the borrowing limit.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the bookkeeping maneuvers Mnuchin can use will be exhausted by sometime in the fall.

Mnuchin has urged lawmakers to move quickly to remove investor doubt about any potential default. Lawmakers had been expected to wait until September or later to act.

 
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Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating Wednesday – from Aa3 (Double A-3) to A1 – saying it expects China’s economy to erode in coming years as growth slows and its debt burden continues to rise. The downgrade comes as the government faces new financial challenges after years of credit-fueled stimulus.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at foreign exchange firm Oanda, said the credit downgrade comes as no surprise. “Because talk of Chinese debt and concerns about the size of Chinese debt has been going on for the last few years.  They seem to be very reliant on these high levels of growth, which has been slowing,” according to Erlam.

China’s economy, the second largest in the world, grew 6.7 percent in 2016, down from 6.9 percent the previous year, the slowest pace since 1990. Erlam says the next few years could be challenging.

“They’ve [the Chinese government] talked about wanting to move away from an investment and export-led economy and focus more on domestic consumption and look at a more sustainable model. But, as we’ve seen over the last couple of years, as soon as it runs into any difficulties – it seems to revert back to where it was a couple of years ago and start spending more money on infrastructure.”

Moody’s expects the government’s direct debt burden to rise to 40 percent of GDP by 2018 and closer to 45 percent by the end of the decade. That’s still well below the 60 percent debt to GDP warning line for the European Union.

China’s Finance Ministry said the downgrade overestimates the risks of rising debt and claims it was based on “inappropriate methodology.” The downgrade is likely to increase the cost of borrowing, but analysts say the one-notch downgrade remains comfortably within the investment grade rating range.

Triple A is the highest rating for creditworthiness, followed by Double A, then Single A. C represents the weakest creditworthiness and means default is imminent.  

China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 1 percent after the credit downgrade while the value of the yuan slipped briefly 0.1 percent against the U.S. dollar.
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Hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations for cash-strapped Greece were dashed again and another deadline was set.

Greece once again failed to get approval from its European creditors to receive the next batch of bailout loans that it needs to meet a debt repayment hump this summer. It also failed to secure an agreement on the sort of debt relief measures it can expect to get when its current bailout program ends next year.

 

Without the loans, Greece faces another brush with bankruptcy. The Greek government had hoped that Monday night’s meeting of the eurozone’s 19 finance ministers would at least have seen it cleared to get the money. After all, it legislated for further cuts and reforms last week to meet creditor demands.

 

Still officials tried to put a brave face on the stalemate.

 

“It would be preferable to postpone a decision for a few days, which would give us time to work harder and prepare a better solution, than to take decisions that just move the problem on and do not offer a clear way out,” Greek government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos said Tuesday.

 

The eurozone’s top official Jeroen Dijsselbloem said a broad settlement involving both the next payout and the outlines of a debt relief deal is close, and could be reached in three weeks when finance ministers from the 19 countries from the single currency bloc meet next in Luxembourg on June 15.

 

Several eurozone officials though, had said as much before Monday’s meeting, too.

 

While hailing the recent progress the Greek authorities have made to implement the reforms and cuts demanded from creditors, Dijsselbloem said certain issues still needed to be addressed. But time is running out for Greece as without the rescue loans it would struggle to meet a big repayment in July of some 7 billion euros ($7.8 billion).

 

The executive Commission, which is one of the overseers of Greece’s bailout, sought to downplay fears that Greece was heading for another financial crisis.

 

“We are convinced that Greece has delivered,” said Margaritis Schinas, the Commission’s spokesman. “Now it is up to its partners to do the same.”

 

One of the major stumbling blocks has centered on a divergence of opinion between the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund, which is not involved financially in Greece’s current three-year bailout program which was agreed in the summer of 2015 and which could be worth up to 86 billion euros in total.

 

Getting the IMF on board is important as Germany and The Netherlands have indicated that they will refuse to lend more money to Greece without the Fund’s participation.

 

The IMF has argued that the eurozone forecasts underpinning the Greek bailout are too rosy and that the country as a result should get substantial debt relief so it can start growing on a sustainable basis following a depression that’s seen the economy shrink by a quarter and unemployment and poverty levels ratchet up sharply. While the eurozone has ruled out any debt write-off, it has indicated that extending Greece’s repayment periods or reducing the interest rates on its loans are possible at the conclusion of the bailout next year.

 

While austerity measures over the past seven years have seen Greece’s annual budget position improve markedly, the country’s debt burden stands at around 180 percent, a level that the Greek government and the IMF think is unsustainable in the long-term — hence the insistence on some debt relief.

 

Dijsselbloem said the IMF welcomes the progress made by Greece, and is “impressed” by the reforms undertaken by Greece and that it stands ready to go to the board to get involved financially.

 

Though the history of Greece’s various scrapes with bankruptcy over the past seven years of its bailout era shows how matters can easily spiral out of control, the prevailing view in markets is that despite some caution, Greece will get its deal.

 

“Despite some disappointment this time, a deal is clearly in the making,” said Lorenzo Codogno, chief economist of LC Macro Advisors. “The baseline scenario is for a deal at the June 15 Eurogroup meeting, with sufficient debt relief to allow the IMF to stay attached.”

 

The protracted nature of Greece’s bailout program has been costly for the country. Though Greece emerged from its economic depression in 2014, the economy is back in recession, having shrunk for two straight quarters. Analysts say the main reason why Greece has taken a step back is its stalled bailout negotiations.
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President Donald Trump is proposing to balance the federal budget within 10 years by slashing many social programs, including some that help the poor pay for food and medical care, called food stamps and Medicaid.

Officials have outlined some new details of the president’s first spending plan. A president’s budget has to be approved by Congress, so the final form is often quite different from what the chief executive proposes. Democrats oppose many of Trump’s plans, and the president’s Republican allies in Congress are divided on some budget issues.  

In his campaign, Trump promised not to cut Social Security, a government-run old-age pension program, or Medicare, which helps elderly people pay for doctors, hospitals and medicine. That means deeper cuts to some other programs.  

Critics of Trump’s budget, including a group called “Campaign to Fix the Debt,” says these popular and expensive programs make up just over half of government spending over the next 10 years. They say it is difficult to balance the budget without trimming this spending. They also say administration officials have based the budget on “unrealistic and rosy economic growth projections.”
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Gambia’s government used a court order Monday to seize assets belonging to exiled former President Yahya Jammeh.

They include nearly 90 bank accounts and 14 companies linked to Jammeh.

Justice Minister Abubacarr Tambadou says Jammeh stole $50 million in public funds before fleeing Gambia for Equatorial Guinea in January.

Jammeh and his associates have been unavailable for comment since he left the country.

Jammeh ruled Gambia for 22 years before losing December’s presidential election to Adama Barrow. He contested the results for several weeks before giving up and fleeing the country.

His long-ruling political party lost April’s parliamentary elections to the opposition United Democratic Party.

Along with allegations of looting public funds, investigators in Gambia are also probing a number of disappearances under the Jammeh government.

 
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Brazil is home to the largest rainforest on Earth. It has miles of sandy, deserted beaches, and stunning flat-topped mountains. It invented samba and a devilish little drink called the caipirinha. It has massive reserves for native peoples and charming colonial towns built by the Portuguese.

Despite the seeming abundance of riches for travelers, it has a tourism problem. Because while you may have heard about the Amazon or the stunning beaches of Rio de Janeiro, you have probably also heard that Brazil has high crime, was swept by a Zika outbreak and that its politicians have concocted the largest graft scheme in Latin American history.

Most likely you’ve never visited Brazil. Only 6.6 million foreigners did last year, according to the Ministry of Tourism. That’s about half the number that go to the tiny city-state of Singapore, and this in a continent-sized country that the World Economic Forum ranks No. 1 in natural resources and No. 8 in cultural resources. Oh, and that hosted the 2016 Summer Olympics.

“The highest gap between potential in tourism in the world and what’s been realized so far is Brazil,” said Vinicius Lummertz, the president of Embratur, Brazil’s tourism board. “We have [everything] from Xingu [an indigenous reserve] and Indians to Oktoberfest in Santa Catarina.”

High hopes

In the face of a deep and protracted recession, the government is now hoping to change all that with several measures that aim to nearly double the number of foreign visitors in the next five years. But hoteliers, travel bloggers and others who work in tourism say there are many obstacles. 

The government plan includes a law to allow 100 percent foreign ownership of airlines, with the aim of increasing flight routes and driving down the cost of travel. Another plank will allow Americans, Canadians, Japanese and Australians — all of whom need visas to visit Brazil — to apply for visas online, instead of at a consulate.

Cheaper flights and a smoother visa process will address some tourist complaints about Brazil, but Alison McGowan says the plan ignores the most glaring problem: Nobody knows how great Brazil is in the first place.

“People don’t even get as far as [applying for a visa],” said McGowan, the CEO of hiddenpousadasbrazil.com, a guide to inns, boutique hotels and B&B’s in Brazil. “They haven’t got people wanting to go to Brazil yet.”

McGowan and other tourism professionals say the government lacks a coherent campaign to promote Brazil abroad — the real country, not just the cliches of Carnival and soccer great Pele.

Part of the government’s plan is to beef up Embratur. Officials there said they hoped that would lead to a doubling of investment in promotion. Last year, Embratur had a $16 million budget — which the agency said was much less than what other South American countries spend.

McGowan and others said Brazil is particularly bad at reaching modern global travelers who research trips and make reservations online. McGowan called the country’s main tourism portal for foreigners, visitbrasil.com, “a disgrace.”

Taxes, crime, pollution

Lummertz, the president of Embratur, says the government’s plan will help promote Brazil abroad. But he says that the nation’s tourist blues go beyond that. Latin America’s largest nation is still struggling to overcome decades of isolation and remains the most closed of the so-called BRICS economies, he says.

That has repercussions for tourism: High import taxes and other hangovers from isolation make the country expensive for travelers and reduce the quality of goods and services. Few Brazilians speak English, partly because they are unlikely to come across global travelers here.

It’s impossible, of course, to gloss over Brazil’s real problems. It has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. Rio’s bay is polluted. And Zika is a risk. But the government and Embratur need a counter-narrative for tourists.

“What is the world capital of pickpockets? It’s Barcelona,” said Ricardo Freire, who founded the Brazilian travel blog viajenaviagem.com. “But [the residents] don’t tell you not to come there.”

The drawbacks of Brazil also need to be put in context. Tourists are not likely to be visiting tough urban neighborhoods where most crime happens, notes Emmanuel Rengade, the owner of the luxury, ecological hotels Pousada Picinguaba and Fazenda Catucaba. In the countryside, Rengade says he doesn’t even lock his door.

As for Zika, a mosquito-borne disease that has been linked to a rare birth defect, cases this year have fallen dramatically, and the government declared the emergency over this month. Rio’s bay might be polluted, but the country has more unspoiled nature to visit than any one person could hope to see in a lifetime.

And contrary to Brazil’s messy image, Ben Feetham says: “Everything seems to work.” Feetham, who is a reviewer for i-escape.com, a site that curates a selection of boutique hotels and inns, honeymooned in Brazil in April and said he had none of the usual stress about airport transfers or bus connections.

All of the fuss over reputation and promotion ignores the No. 1 thing tourists like best about Brazil in surveys: the people, known for being easygoing and welcoming. 

“Anybody who goes to Brazil comes back loving it,” said Pauline Frommer, the co-publisher of the Frommer’s guidebooks and frommers.com. “The key is getting people there.”
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Germany and France pledged Monday to seek ways to strengthen the 19-nation eurozone, with harmonizing corporate taxes among the possible measures they will mull over in the coming weeks.

 

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and new French counterpart Bruno Le Maire said they are setting up a panel to produce proposals for a bilateral summit in July.

 

“We’ve been talking for years about progress in the integration of the eurozone, but things aren’t advancing quickly enough or far enough,” Le Maire said. “We are determined to get things moving faster and further, in a very concrete way.”

 

Germany and France could either propose a joint corporate tax system of their own or concentrate on pushing efforts for a harmonized assessment of corporate taxes at the European Union level, Schaeuble said.

 

“Both are ambitious,” he conceded, noting that wider tax harmonization is difficult because it would require consensus among EU leaders.

 

Le Maire said there needs to be better coordination of economic policy. He said investment will also be considered. He stressed France’s willingness to consider deeper reforms such as creating a finance minister for the 19-nation eurozone or a “European monetary fund,” an idea that Schaeuble has periodically backed.

 

He offered assurances that “France will respect its European obligations in terms of [budget] deficit reduction.”

 

The latest German-French drive to strengthen the EU’s economic coherence come as Britain, the bloc’s No. 2 economy after Germany, prepares to leave the EU.

 

“We see in Brexit an opportunity for our financial companies to be more attractive than they were before,” Le Maire said. “Our role is to create wealth for our country, to create jobs for our country. With Brexit, there is this opportunity, and we expect to seize this opportunity.”

 

New French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, also making his first trip to Berlin since President Emmanuel Macron’s new government was appointed last week, met separately with his German counterpart Sigmar Gabriel.

 

Le Drian promised to keep up Franco-German diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine that has cost almost 10,000 deaths since fighting broke out in 2014 between Russia-backed separatists and the government.

 

“France and Germany are not Europe, but without France and Germany, Europe won’t be able to move forward,” Gabriel said. “We want to use this historic window of opportunity that opened up with the election in France.”

 
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Boeing Co said on Sunday it had signed several defense and commercial deals with Saudi Arabia including for the sale of military and passenger aircraft during a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to the kingdom.

The announcement is the latest in tens of billions of dollars in deals signed between U.S. and Saudi firms since Trump arrived in Riyadh on Saturday.

Boeing said Saudi Arabia has agreed to buy Chinook helicopters, associated support services and guided weapons systems, and intends to purchase P-8 surveillance aircraft.

The total value of the deals or how many aircraft Saudi Arabia intends to buy was not given in the statement announcing the agreements.

A Boeing spokesman declined to comment beyond the statement.

The U.S State Department announced in December plans to sell Saudi Arabia CH-47F Chinook cargo helicopters and related equipment, training and support worth $3.51 billion.

Saudi Arabia is seeking closer defense and commercial ties with the United States under Trump, as it seeks to develop its economy beyond oil and leads a coalition that is fighting a war in Yemen.

“These announcements reaffirm our commitment to the economic growth, prosperity and national security of both Saudi Arabia and the United States, helping to create or sustain thousands of jobs in our two countries,” said Boeing Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg.

Boeing also said it would negotiate the sale of up to 16 widebody airplanes to Saudi Gulf Airlines which is based in the country’s east in Dammam.

Boeing did not say which aircraft it was negotiating to sell to the privately-owned commercial airline. Saudi Gulf, which started operations last year, could not immediately be reached for comment.

Boeing will also establish a joint venture with Saudi Arabia to provide “sustainment services for a wide range of military platforms,” the statement said, whilst a separate joint venture would “provide support for both military and commercial helicopters.”
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The European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Pierre Moscovici, said on Sunday he was confident an agreement between Athens and its creditors could be found at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday in Brussels.

Athens needs funds to repay 7.5 billion euros ($8.4 billion) of debt maturing in July.

“We are very close to an overall agreement,” Moscovici told France Inter radio.

“Greece has assumed its responsibilities,” he said, referring to measures on pension cuts, tax hikes and reforms adopted on Thursday by the Greek Parliament.

“I now wish that we, the partners of Greece, also take our responsibilities,” he said.

Moscovici said his optimism over a deal was partly linked to the fact Germany was now aware of the need to find a structural solution to Greece’s problems.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed during a call on Wednesday that a deal was “feasible” by Monday.
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The world’s largest private equity fund, backed by Japan’s Softbank Group and Saudi Arabia’s main sovereign wealth fund, said Saturday that it had raised over $93 billion to invest in technology sectors such as artificial intelligence and robotics.

“The next stage of the Information Revolution is under way, and building the businesses that will make this possible will require unprecedented large-scale, long-term investment,” the Softbank Vision Fund said in a statement.

Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son, chairman of Softbank, a telecommunications and tech investment group, revealed plans for the fund last October, and since then it has obtained commitments from some of the world’s most deep-pocketed investors.

In addition to Softbank and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the new fund’s investors include Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment, which has committed $15 billion, Apple Inc., Qualcomm, Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology and Japan’s Sharp Corp.

The new fund made its announcement during the visit of President Donald Trump to Riyadh and the signing of tens of billions of dollars’ worth of business deals between U.S. and Saudi companies. Son was also in Riyadh on Saturday.

After meeting with Trump last December, Son pledged $50 billion of investment in the United States that would create 50,000 jobs, a promise Trump claimed was a direct result of his election win.

Saudi tech access

The fund may also serve the interests of Saudi Arabia by helping Riyadh obtain access to foreign technology. Low oil prices have severely damaged the Saudi economy, and policymakers are trying to diversify into new industries.

The PIF signaled an interest in the tech sector last year by investing $3.5 billion in U.S. ride-hailing firm Uber.

Saturday’s statement did not say how much the PIF had committed to the fund, but previously it had said it would invest up to $45 billion over five years. Softbank is investing $28 billion.

The new fund said it would seek to buy minority and majority interests in both private and public companies, from emerging businesses to established, multibillion-dollar firms. It expects to obtain preferred access to long-term investment opportunities worth $100 million or more.

Other sectors in which the fund may invest include mobile computing, communications infrastructure, computational biology, consumer internet businesses and financial technology. The fund aims for $100 billion of committed capital and expects to complete its money-raising in six months, it added.
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About 3 million Americans will enter the job pool this year as graduation ceremonies get underway at various colleges and universities across the United States. With unemployment at a 10-year low, 2017 is shaping up to be a good year for new grads. But as Mil Arcega reports, success for many will depend on a desire to keep learning and a willingness to go where the jobs are.
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About three million American university graduates will enter the job market this year. And with unemployment currently at a 10-year low, it’s a good time to be graduating, says Nicole Smith, chief economist at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW).

“We are at one of the lowest unemployment rates we’ve had since May of 2007, so what that means for the graduating class of 2017 is that the likelihood of getting a job is really, really good,” she said.

The U.S. Labor Department says unemployment for those with a four-year bachelor’s degree or higher is 2.5 percent, compared to the overall jobless rate of 4.5 percent. For those with a high school diploma or less, the average unemployment rate is 6.8 percent.

Demand for graduates with associate, bachelor’s and master’s degrees is particularly strong in the STEM fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers.

However, Smith says, a four-year degree is not necessary to compete in today’s economy.

“There are about 28 million jobs or so in the U.S. economy that are good-paying jobs; that are high-skilled jobs for people without a B.A,” she said.

While higher learning can give new workers the upper hand, Smith says almost a third of students with bachelor’s degrees are under-unemployed.

“So we have to do this cakewalk, this tightrope walk, to understand exactly what the market demands,” she said.

Options without college degree

A survey of the hottest employment sectors in 2017 shows some of the fastest-growing fields don’t require a four-year degree, according to Bankrate.com senior analyst Mark Hamrick.

“You don’t have to have a college degree for some of those technical jobs, where, let’s say, a kind of therapy might be involved — physical or occupational therapy,” he said.

Health care and service-oriented jobs aimed at the needs of a graying population are bound to remain strong as baby boomers — those born between 1946 to 1964 — continue to retire. But, Hamrick says, some skills are harder to learn in school.

“One of the skills which has been in strong demand really involves people skills — closing the deal, sales … business strategy; charting the course for a viable enterprise, that’s something that’s needed,” he said.

What is clear is that jobs that fueled the economy three or four decades ago are not the same jobs driving the economy today. In the 1970s, manufacturing accounted for nearly two of every five jobs; today, those manufacturing jobs account for fewer than one in 10.   

“The types of manufacturing jobs that remain are jobs that are really high-skill, high-tech, high-demand manufacturing jobs. So those jobs require a lot more skills than their predecessors did,” Smith said.

Life-long learning key

Today’s job market also differs from the past because rapid technological and societal change demands a commitment to life-long learning, which means that getting a degree is just the beginning, according to Smith.  

“Each year, there’s a new … version of technology that we must use,” she said. “So what the students need to be aware of is that they will need to come back to re-up their certification, to re-up their skills.”

Participating in today’s economy also means older and newer workers must be willing to move where the jobs are. Demand for workers is greatest where local economies are dynamic and where populations are growing, says Bankrate.com’s Hamrick. That means the exodus toward bigger cities on the East and West coasts will continue. 

“That’s a process that’s accelerating,” Hamrick said. “It’s not slowing down, and so having the right skills, going where the jobs are located — those are the keys to obtaining and maintaining employment.”

The most recent jobs report shows the U.S. economy added 211,000 jobs in April, and unemployment fell to 4.4 percent. That’s a sharp contrast to the dark days that followed the 2008 financial crisis, when the U.S. economy was losing 800,000 jobs a month and unemployment peaked at 10 percent. 
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A sizable majority of rural Americans backed Donald Trump’s presidential bid, drawn to his calls to slash environmental rules, strengthen law enforcement and replace the federal health care law.

But last month, many of them struck a sour note after White House aides signaled that Trump would deliver on another signature vow by edging toward abandoning the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Farm Country suddenly went on red alert.

Trump’s message that NAFTA was a job-killing disaster had never resonated much in rural America. NAFTA had widened access to Mexican and Canadian markets, boosting U.S. farm exports and benefiting many farmers.

“Mr. President, America’s corn farmers helped elect you,” Wesley Spurlock of the National Corn Growers Association warned in a statement. “Withdrawing from NAFTA would be disastrous for American agriculture.”

Within hours, Trump softened his stance. He wouldn’t actually dump NAFTA, he said. He’d first try to forge a more advantageous deal with Mexico and Canada – a move that formally began Thursday when his top trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, announced the administration’s intent to renegotiate NAFTA.

Farmers have been relieved that NAFTA has survived so far. Yet many remain nervous about where Trump’s trade policy will lead.

As a candidate, Trump defined his “America First” stance as a means to fight unfair foreign competition. He blamed unjust deals for swelling U.S. trade gaps and stealing factory jobs.

But NAFTA and other deals have been good for American farmers, who stand to lose if Trump ditches the pact or ignites a trade war. The United States has enjoyed a trade surplus in farm products since at least 1967, government data show. Last year, farm exports exceeded imports by $20.5 billion.

“You don’t start off trade negotiations … by picking fights with your trade partners that are completely unnecessary,” says Aaron Lehman, a fifth-generation Iowa farmer who produces corn, soybeans, oats and hay.

Many farmers worry that Trump’s policies will jeopardize their exports just as they face weaker crop and livestock prices.

“It comes up pretty quickly in conversation,” says Blake Hurst, a corn and soybean farmer in northwestern Missouri’s Atchison County.

That county’s voters backed Trump more than 3-to-1 in the election but now feel “it would be better if the rhetoric (on trade) was a little less strident,” says Hurst, president of the Missouri Farm Bureau.

Trump’s main argument against NAFTA and other pacts was that they exposed American workers to unequal competition with low-wage workers in countries like Mexico and China.

NAFTA did lead some American manufacturers to move factories and jobs to Mexico. But since it took effect in 1994 and eased tariffs, annual farm exports to Mexico have jumped nearly five-fold to about $18 billion. Mexico is the No. 3 market for U.S. agriculture, notably corn, soybeans and pork.

“The trade agreements that we’ve had have been very beneficial,” says Stephen Censky, CEO of the American Soybean Association. “We need to take care not to blow the significant gains that agriculture has won.”

The U.S. has run a surplus in farm trade with Mexico for 20 of the 23 years since NAFTA took effect. Still, the surpluses with Mexico became deficits in 2015 and 2016 as global livestock and grain prices plummeted and shrank the value of American exports, notes Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Mexico has begun to seek alternatives to U.S. food because, as its agriculture secretary, Jose Calzada Rovirosa, said in March, Trump’s remarks on trade “have injected uncertainty” into the agriculture business.

Once word had surfaced that Trump was considering pulling out of NAFTA, Sonny Perdue, two days into his job as the president’s agriculture secretary, hastened to the White House with a map showing areas that would be hurt most by a pullout, overlapped with many that voted for Trump.

“I tried to demonstrate to him that in the agricultural market, sometimes words like ‘withdraw’ or ‘terminate’ can have a major impact on markets,” Perdue said in an interview with The Associated Press. “I think the president made a very wise decision for the benefit of many agricultural producers across the country” by choosing to remain in NAFTA.

Trump delivered another disappointment for U.S. farm groups in January by fulfilling a pledge to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the Obama administration negotiated with 11 Asia-Pacific countries. Trump argued that the pact would cost Americans jobs by pitting them against low-wage Asian labor.

But the deal would have given U.S. farmers broader access to Japan’s notoriously impregnable market and easier entry into fast-growing Vietnam. Philip Seng of the U.S. Meat Export Federation notes that the U.S. withdrawal from TPP left Australia with a competitive advantage because it had already negotiated lower tariffs in Japan.

Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, thereby raising fears that those trading partners would retaliate with their own sanctions.

Farmers know they’re frequently the first casualties of trade wars. Many recall a 2009 trade rift in which China responded to U.S. tire tariffs by imposing tariffs on U.S. chicken parts. And Mexico slapped tariffs on U.S. goods ranging from ham to onions to Christmas trees in 2009 to protest a ban on Mexican trucks crossing the border.

The White House declined to comment on farmers’ fears that Trump’s trade policy stands to hurt them. But officials say they’ve sought to ease concerns, by, for example, having Agriculture Secretary Perdue announce a new undersecretary to oversee trade and foreign agricultural affairs.

Many farmers are still hopeful about the Trump administration. Some, for example, applaud his plans to slash environmental rules that they say inflate the cost of running a farm. Some also hold out hope that the author of “The Art of the Deal” will negotiate ways to improve NAFTA.

One such way might involve Canada. NAFTA let Canada shield its dairy farmers from foreign competition behind tariffs and regulations but left at least one exception – an American ultra-filtered milk used in cheese. When Canadian farmers complained about the cheaper imports, Canada changed its policy and effectively priced ultra-filtered American milk out of the market.

“Canada has made business for our dairy farmers in Wisconsin and other border states very difficult,” Trump tweeted last month. “We will not stand for this. Watch!”

Some U.S. cattle producers would also like a renegotiated NAFTA to give them something the current version doesn’t: The right to label their product “Made in America.” In 2015, the World Trade Organization struck down the United States’ country-of-origin labeling rules as unfair to Mexico and Canada.

Many still worry that Trump’s planned overhaul of American trade policy is built to revive manufacturing and that farming remains an afterthought.

“So much of the conversation in the campaign had been in Detroit or in Indiana” and focused on manufacturing jobs,” said Kathy Baylis, an economist at the University of Illinois. The importance of American farm exports “never made it into the rhetoric.”

 
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An OPEC panel reviewing scenarios for next week’s policy-setting meeting is looking at the option of deepening and extending an OPEC-led deal to reduce oil output, OPEC sources said Friday.

OPEC’s national representatives — officials representing the 13 member countries, plus officials from OPEC’s Vienna secretariat — met Wednesday and Thursday to discuss the market.

The two-day meeting, called the Economic Commission Board, was scheduled to finish Thursday but will conclude later Friday, two OPEC sources said.

“We have not agreed on final scenarios,” said one of the sources.

A second source said a deeper supply cut was an option depending on estimated growth in supply from non-OPEC and U.S. shale oil.

The meeting precedes a policy-setting gathering of OPEC and non-OPEC oil ministers May 25 to decide whether to extend their deal to reduce output beyond June 30.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers originally agreed to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from Jan. 1 to support the market.

Oil prices, trading around $53 a barrel, have gained support from reduced output, but high inventories and rising supply from producers outside the deal have limited the rally, pressing the case for extending the deal.
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The Greek Parliament approved another round of tough economic cuts and austerity measures Thursday to assure itself another installment payment of European bailout funds.

Greece may have again faced bankruptcy in July without the payment.

More cuts for pensioners

All 153 lawmakers in Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist coalition voted for the cuts; all 128 opposition members voted no.

More than 10,000 Greeks weary of the nation’s economic problems, including elderly pensioners facing more cuts, marched outside Parliament against the measures.

Several dozen young marchers wearing masks broke away from the crowd to throw gasoline bombs at police, who responded with tear gas.

Greece desperately needs about $8 billion of bailout money from its eurozone lenders in order to make a scheduled debt payment.

Tax hikes part of deal

In exchange, the government agreed to EU demands for more austerity measures, including tax hikes and programs aimed at easing poverty.

With Thursday’s vote, Greek officials hope they can renegotiate payment terms on the nation’s massive debt payment — nearly 180 percent of Greece’s gross domestic product. The International Monetary Fund calls this number unsustainable.

Greece has been relying on international bailouts since 2010, when the outgoing conservative government badly underreported the country’s debt.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says the nation’s economic growth can rise to 3 percent annually if taxes and regulations are cut.

The Treasury secretary spoke Thursday to a Senate committee in his first congressional testimony since he was confirmed in the new job. Mnuchin’s boss, Donald Trump, says tax and regulatory reform will boost the economy, and he made the promise of such changes a key part of his campaign for president.

Recently, annual economic growth has been at 2 percent or lower, and most economists say that is due to a large number of retirements by aging workers and meager productivity growth.

Trump’s efforts to change taxes have been moving slowly in Congress, where they face strong opposition from Democrats, and skepticism from some of his Republican allies who worry that cutting taxes will make government debt problems worse.
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U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration says it has notified Congress it intends to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.

In a letter sent Thursday to congressional leaders, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the administration plans 90 days of consultations with lawmakers over how to rewrite the agreement followed by negotiations with Canada and Mexico that could begin after August 16.

Renegotiation of NAFTA was a key promise of Trump’s during his presidential campaign, when he frequently called the treaty a “disaster.”

Lighthizer told reporters NAFTA has helped strengthen the U.S. agriculture, investment services and energy sectors, but it has hurt U.S. factories and resulted in well-paying manufacturing jobs being sent to Mexico.

Lighthizer said in the letter that NAFTA needs to be updated to more effectively address matters involving digital trade, intellectual property rights and labor and environmental standards.

At a news conference Thursday at the State Department with Mexican officials and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and other U.S. officials, Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said Mexico “welcomes” the renegotiation of NAFTA.

“We understand that this is a 25-year-old agreement when it was negotiated,” Videgaray said. “The world has changed. We’ve learned a lot and we can make it better.”

Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement, “Since the signing of NAFTA, we have seen our manufacturing industry decimated, factories shuttered, and countless workers left jobless.  President Trump is going to change that.”

VOA State Department correspondent Nike Ching contributed to this report
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Call them the unrecovered — a handful of states where job markets, nine years later, are still struggling back to where they were before the recession.

That’s true in Mississippi, where job numbers and the overall size of the economy remain below 2008 levels. Unlike states that have long since sprinted ahead, Mississippi is struggling with slow economic growth and slipping population in a place that’s rarely at peak economic health.

Miguel Brown, despite family ties to his hometown near the Alabama border, is working on oil rigs off the shore of Texas, chasing higher wages.

“It’s rough,” said the 49-year-old Brown. “There’s not a whole lot of jobs in Meridian, especially that pay anything.”

Not only Mississippi, but also Alabama, Michigan, New Mexico and West Virginia are still short of pre-recession job levels by multiple measures. That contrasts with states including Colorado, North Dakota, Texas and Utah, where employment numbers have soared. Nationwide, job numbers surpassed pre-recession peaks in the middle of 2014, about the same time Mississippi was saddled with the nation’s highest unemployment rate.

Emilia Istrate, who produces a yearly report on how local economies are faring for the National Association of Counties, said the recovery has been widespread but “uneven.”

“It explains why so many Americans don’t feel the national economic numbers. It’s because they live in one of these places that is still in recovery or struggling,” Istrate said.

Mississippi numbers

Growth has long lagged in Mississippi, and jobless rates are high even in good times. The unemployment rate fell to 5 percent in March, the lowest since the U.S. Labor Department began the current system of measurement in 1976. But at the same time that the Magnolia State’s unemployment rate was at a record low, it tied for the ninth highest among the states.

Mississippi suffers from a cluster of ills that make it an economic laggard. Only 53 percent of Mississippi adults were working in 2016, the second lowest share of any state. Mississippi’s economy depends on slow-growth sectors, including government employment. While nearly 30 percent of Americans older than 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher, only 21 percent of Mississippians do.

The overall size of Mississippi’s economy was smaller in 2016 than it was in 2008, and people are beginning to vote with their feet: The state’s population has fallen in the last two years.

“I think the population is falling because of the economy,” said state economist Darrin Webb. “People have had to go where the jobs are.”

Education options

That doesn’t mean things haven’t improved for many people. Economists have long advised that a better-educated, more productive workforce could eventually spur growth. The state’s community colleges last year began offering not only adult education classes to high school dropouts, but also free training leading to career certification.

Kathryn Winfield, 37, was one of the first graduates.

Returning to the labor force after two years spent caring for her dying father, she earned her high school equivalency degree and became a certified nursing assistant. After nearly a decade making the minimum wage of $7.25 an hour working as a cashier, Winfield is now making more than $13 an hour helping care for nursing home patients. She said the additional pay allows her to better provide for her three kids.

In some ways, Mississippi’s economy has healed from the scars of the recession. Archie McDonnell Jr., the CEO of Citizens National Bank, said loan demand has rebounded above prerecession highs at Meridian’s largest financial institution, and the bank’s profits have more than tripled from their bottom in 2011.

“People just decided, the recession’s over, I’ve got to get back to running my business and investing and doing things,” McDonnell said.

McDonnell said he’s hopeful about investment in Meridian, noting a $50 million museum being built downtown, an investor seeking to redevelop a derelict 16-story art-deco skyscraper into a hotel, and new ownership at the city’s mall.

The number of Mississippians who report being employed could top the precession high when April data is released Friday. But employer payrolls, another way to measure employment, leveled off last year and remains about 1 percent below where they were before Mississippi’s economy headed south in early 2008.

It is not just the number of jobs, but what they pay. Workers made an average of $669 a week in Meridian and surrounding Lauderdale County in late 2016, compared to $739 statewide and $1,027 nationwide. 

Good wages are the reason that Brown says he has left his hometown of Meridian.

“These are my roots,” Brown said. “Meridian will always be home, without a doubt, but you’ve got to make ends meet and you can’t do it here.”
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