YCLOAK

More international visitors came to the U.S. than expected in April 2017, according to a new report released Tuesday in Washington.

The U.S. Travel Association’s Travel Trends Index shows that international travel to the U.S. grew by about 4 percent in April, compared with data for April 2016.

The strong showing contradicted fears that tourism from abroad would slow in reaction to President Donald Trump’s proposed travel bans, which have been blocked by court challenges.

The Trump administration’s first ban on travel from a handful of mostly Muslim countries was issued Jan. 27. The Travel Association said any fallout from the travel bans would have begun to show up in April travel data.

“Are we surprised by this data? The honest answer is yes,” U.S. Travel Association CEO Roger Dow said in a statement. “There have been many claims that the administration’s actions on travel have tarnished America’s brand abroad, but we’re seeing hard economic evidence of the U.S. travel sector’s remarkable resilience.”

The U.S. Travel Association statistics also suggest that a slowdown in international arrivals that began in the spring of 2016 may be moderating.

Data from the U.S. Commerce Department has been showing a decline in international arrivals over the second and third quarters of last year. Those statistics take months to compile and will not reflect 2017 arrivals until next year. The government data is also more comprehensive, including, for example, border crossings by car from Canada and Mexico, which the U.S. Travel Association data does not include.

It’s also not unusual for travel spending and arrivals numbers to fluctuate month to month due to seasonal tourism and other economic factors.

The Travel Trends Index is compiled in partnership with Oxford Economics, using multiple sources including hotel and airline data.

The U.S. Travel Association is a national nonprofit organization representing the travel industry, dedicated to increasing travel within and to the U.S.

 
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South Africa’s economy – one of Africa’s biggest – is in recession.

A 0.7 percent decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year followed a 0.3 percent contraction in the last quarter of 2016, meeting the definition of a recession as two or more quarters of negative growth, the South African government said Tuesday.  

The country’s economy was already struggling with official unemployment of 27.7 percent, as well as financial fallout from scandals surrounding President Jacob Zuma.

This year, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s lowered South Africa’s credit rating to below investment grade after Zuma fired Pravin Gordhan, a finance minister seen by many South Africans as a bulwark against alleged corruption at top levels of government. Calls for Zuma to resign have increased within the ruling African National Congress party, fueling uncertainty about the country’s leadership.

Citing leaked emails, South African media have reported on the alleged influence of the Gupta family, Indian immigrant businessmen with close ties to Zuma who have been accused of trying to manipulate the government for financial gain.

“It is a toxic combination of policy uncertainty and grand corruption which has led us to this point,” Mmusi Maimane, leader of the opposition Democratic Alliance party, said after the recession was announced.

Trade fell by 5.9 percent and manufacturing declined by 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017, said Statistics South Africa, a government agency. The sector comprising finance, transport, trade, government and personal services logged its first quarter of decline since 2009, when South Africa was swept up in the global financial crisis, it said.   

Agriculture posted growth in a possible sign of recovery from a harsh drought, and mining grew partly because of a production increase in gold and platinum, according to the agency.
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The number of job openings advertised in the United States hit a record high of six million in April.

Tuesday’s report from Labor Department said the pace of hiring went down at the same time.

Analysts say the apparent contradiction may show that employers are having difficulty finding workers with the right skills.

Data about job openings and the recently reported U.S. unemployment rate (4.3 percent), and new information on inflation will be part of the discussion next week when leaders of the U.S. central bank gather to set interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s goal is to reach full employment and keep prices stable.

The Fed is widely-expected to raise interest rates slightly to fend off inflation without stalling economic growth.

 
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Poland and Ukraine said Tuesday they are working toward developing a regional gas hub that would end Central and Eastern Europe’s dependence on Russian supplies and keep prices in line with European standards.

The region still relies to some extent on Russian natural gas and has been exposed to political pressure from Moscow, which has at times in the past limited supply volumes or hiked gas prices. Governments in the region have been reducing their imports of gas from Russia and seeking other sources. They have also been trying to become more energy-efficient, a task Ukraine still needs to fully undertake.

Poland is increasingly importing gas from other regions. Its new liquefied natural gas port has received deliveries by sea from Qatar and is expecting a delivery from the United States this week. Poland is also proceeding with a project to bring in North Sea gas.

Poland is sending some of resources on to Ukraine, after the country cut imports from Russia in 2015.

Government officials participating in a Poland-Ukraine Gas Conference on Tuesday said the planned hub should be in place by 2022 on the Polish-Ukrainian border.

“We now have enough infrastructure to move onwards with the hub,” said Serhiy Makohon, deputy head of Ukraine’s oil and gas company, Ukrtrans’haz.
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Qatar’s currency came under pressure on Tuesday as Gulf Arab commercial banks started holding off on business with Qatari banks because of a diplomatic rift in the region.

Banking sources said some banks from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain delayed letters of credit and other deals with Qatari banks after their governments cut diplomatic ties and transport links with Doha on Monday, accusing Qatar of backing terrorism.

Saudi Arabia’s central bank advised banks in the kingdom not to trade with Qatari banks in Qatari riyals, the sources told Reuters. The central bank did not respond to a request for comment.

Qatar has dismissed the terrorism charge and welcomed a Kuwaiti mediation effort. Doha, the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas exporter, says it has enough reserves to support its banks and its riyal currency, which is pegged to the dollar.

Qatari banks have been borrowing abroad to fund their activities. Their foreign liabilities ballooned to 451 billion riyals ($124 billion) in March from 310 billion riyals at the end of 2015, central bank data shows.

So any extended disruption to their ties with foreign banks could potentially threaten a funding crunch for some Qatari banks. Banks from the UAE, Europe and elsewhere have been lending to Qatari institutions.

Gulf banking sources, who declined to be named because of political sensitivities, said Saudi Arabian, UAE and Bahraini banks were postponing deals until they received guidance from their central banks on how to handle Qatar.

“We will not take action without central bank guidance, but it is wise to evaluate what you give to Qatari clients and hold off until there is further clarity,” said a UAE banker, adding that trade finance had stalled for the time being.

The sources said the UAE and Bahraini central banks had asked banks under their supervision to report their exposure to Qatari banks. The UAE and Bahraini central banks did not reply to requests for comment.

Reserves

With an estimated $335 billion of assets in its sovereign wealth fund and its gas exports earning billions of dollars every month, Qatar has enough financial power to protect its banks.

“We are watching the financial sector very closely. If the market needs liquidity, the central bank will definitely provide liquidity,” a Qatari central bank official told Reuters.

Nevertheless, losing some of their foreign business links could be uncomfortable for Qatari banks because they have been expanding their loans faster than other banks in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council. To fund this, they have been seeking loans and deposits from the rest of the GCC.

Among large banks, Doha Bank and Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) are the most exposed to GCC deposits, with QIB obtaining a quarter of its deposits from the GCC, said Olivier Panis, analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.

“We need to look into the maturity of those deposits but if they’re short-term deposits, this could expose the banks rapidly to reduced confidence from GCC institutions,” he said.

Doha Bank and QIB did not respond to requests for comment.

Because of such worries, the Qatari riyal fell in the spot market on Tuesday to 3.6470 against the U.S. dollar, its lowest level since June 2016, although it later rebounded to 3.6405, almost equal to its official peg of 3.64.

It also fell slightly in the one-year forwards market, where traders bet on rates 12 months from now.

The riyal’s drop “is based on speculation,” the Qatari central bank official said, adding Doha had a “huge cushion” of foreign currency to support the riyal if necessary.

A commercial banker in fellow GCC state Kuwait, which did not sever diplomatic ties with Qatar, said on Tuesday that business with Qatari institutions was continuing as normal.

But there were signs that Qatar’s financial ties might be damaged well beyond the Gulf. Some Sri Lankan banks stopped buying Qatari riyals, saying counterpart banks in Singapore had advised them not to accept the currency.

In Egypt, which also cut diplomatic and transport ties with Qatar, some banks resumed dealing in Qatari riyals after halting trade on Monday, but others appeared to be continuing to limit transactions with Doha.

Banks reducing their business with Qatar could lose out financially, but the damage looks likely to be relatively minor.

Panis at Moody’s estimated under 2 percent of Saudi banking sector assets were related to Qatar and the figure was around 5 percent for Bahrain, while the UAE’s exposure was also small.

 
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Cities are pushing back on the possibility of losing millions of dollars in U.S. anti-terrorism grants under President Donald Trump’s spending plan — the third straight White House that has moved to cut the funding.

The proposed budget would cut cash for the program from $605 million to nearly $449 million for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 and require cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Las Vegas to pay 25 percent of the grants.

The administration says it is proposing the cost-share system, similar to other grant programs, to “share accountability” with states and cities.

But lawmakers and local officials argue that reducing funding for the Urban Area Security Initiative would undercut efforts to maintain safe communities. Cities have spent the money on command centers, active-shooter training and personnel to patrol airports, transit hubs and waterways.

Big cities have been down this road before, with funding fluctuating over the years.

President George W. Bush created the grant program after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, but scaled it back in his second term. President Barack Obama’s proposed 2017 budget suggested slashing the funding from $600 million to $330 million.

In each instance, local politicians reacted with outrage and questioned the wisdom of taking away money in the fight against terrorism. This year, Congress ignored Obama’s guidance and increased funding by $5 million.

But some cities that have received grants in previous years have not spent all the money, another reason the White House says the changes are needed.

The proposed cuts came a day after the deadly Manchester, England, concert bombing and the same day authorities in Las Vegas tried to ease concerns about the city being targeted in a recent Islamic State propaganda video. It encouraged knife and vehicle attacks and featured images of Sin City, Times Square in New York and banks in Washington, D.C.

Law enforcement officials in Orlando, Florida, told a congressional committee weeks after a nightclub became the site of the worst mass shooting in modern U.S. history that central Florida had missed out on needed training and opportunities to buy equipment because it had not made the cut to receive funding.

Grants are awarded to the highest-ranked urban areas on a list determined by risk of terrorist threats based on past plots or a known presence; whether its infrastructure is a valuable target; and the consequence of an attack on the population, economy or national security.

Last year, the 29 highest-ranked metro areas that applied for a grant received funding.

The Las Vegas area has spent the money on training and equipment for bomb and hazardous-material squads along with computer software and hardware at a law enforcement command center.

Las Vegas received almost $3 million in fiscal year 2016. Irene Navis, planning coordinator and assistant emergency manager in Nevada’s Clark County, said the area would be able to meet the proposed 25 percent cost-share requirement.

“Fortunately, not one agency is going to get the whole amount; it’s split up,” Navis said. “So, for one agency, it might be that they get $25,000 for equipment and the match is really small. Agencies that get a large amount of money, that’s something that they would have to consider. But, in general, in our urban area, it would not be a problem.”

U.S. Rep. Dina Titus, a Democrat whose district includes the Las Vegas Strip, called the funding change a “pay-to-play scheme.”

“It is unimaginable that the administration believes southern Nevada’s security will be improved by cutting vital programs that protect residents and travelers in our community,” she said.

But the government questions why state and local governments aren’t spending all the money if it’s so important.

“The federal government cannot afford to over-invest in programs that state and local partners are slow to utilize when there are other pressing needs,” according to a written justification from the Trump administration.

The office of Sen. Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat who has sparred with Obama and Trump on the grants, says that because of government procurement rules, it can take time for cities and states to spend the money. But he says that does not mean they have not allocated the money or don’t need it.

New York City received the largest grant last year at more than $178 million, followed by Chicago, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.

“America’s cities are critical partners in the fight against terrorism — and taking away this funding would undermine the national priority to secure the homeland,” Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, a Democrat, said in a statement.
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The Trump administration is considering letting companies use seismic air guns to look for oil and gas deposits below the Atlantic Ocean, outraging environmentalists and coastal towns and resorts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says it has gotten five separate requests to carry out the operations.

NOAA admits using the high-powered guns may “incidentally but not intentionally harass” marine mammals and reptiles. If the permits are approved, NOAA says companies must carry out a number of strict rules.

Observers would keep watch

They include placing observers on board ships to watch out for protected species and shut down operations if they are spotted. They also must listen for vocal communications between marine mammals, such as whales and dolphins.

The air guns use incredibly powerful blasts of air to look for oil and gas deep under the ocean floor.

The companies propose searching for possible drilling sites off the Atlantic coast from Delaware south to central Florida.

Environmentalists are furious. They say noise from the guns is one of the loudest man-made sounds created and can kill and injure millions of whales, dolphins, turtles, and other sea animals that depend on sound to communicate and survive.

Coastal towns oppose air guns

“Coastal communities have the most to lose, but unfortunately their overwhelming opposition may be ignored by the Trump administration,” said Nancy Pyne of the conservation group Oceana.

She calls it the first step towards offshore drilling and points to the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico as a major reason this should not be allowed to happen. Officials and business owners in coastal towns up and down the Atlantic also oppose the air guns.

NOAA has given the public 30 days to comment for or against the proposal.

Former President Barack Obama had rejected permits to air blast in the Atlantic. But President Trump signed an executive order in April expanding the search for oil and gas in the Atlantic to help make the U.S. more energy independent.
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Religious hospitals don’t have to comply with federal laws protecting pension plans, a unanimous Supreme Court ruled Monday in a case that affects retirement benefits for roughly a million workers nationwide.

The justices sided with three church-affiliated nonprofit hospital systems being sued for underfunding their employee pension plans.

The hospitals — two with Catholic affiliation and one with Lutheran ties — had argued that their pensions are “church plans” that are exempt from the law and have been treated as such for decades by federal officials.

Workers asserted that Congress never meant to exempt massive hospital systems that employ tens of thousands of workers. They said the hospitals are dodging legal safeguards that could jeopardize their benefits.

Pension plans are required to be fully funded and insured under federal law, but Congress carved out narrow exemptions for churches and other religious organizations. The hospitals claimed the law also exempts plans associated with or controlled by a church, whether or not it was created by a church in the first place.

Writing for the court, Justice Elena Kagan said a pension plan operated by a religiously affiliated hospital is exempt from the law “regardless of who established it.”

The federal government has long agreed with the hospitals’ understanding of the law. Agencies including the IRS and the Labor Department have assured them for more than 30 years that they are exempt from traditional pension rules.

But three federal appeals courts had ruled against the hospitals — California-based Advocate Health Care Network, Illinois-based Dignity Health and New Jersey-based Saint Peter’s Healthcare System. The hospitals appealed, warning that the rulings could expose them to billions of dollars in liability.

Together, the three hospitals employ about 100,000 workers. But about a million workers around the country work for similar nonprofits that have been exempt from pension funding requirements.

In one of the cases, workers allege that Dignity Health — the fifth-largest provider of health care in the country — has underfunded its pension plan by $1.2 billion.

Justice Neil Gorsuch did not participate in the ruling, which was argued before he joined the court.
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The U.S. government is investigating complaints that air bag control computers in some Jeep Liberty SUVs can fail, preventing the air bag system from operating properly in a crash.

The probe covers about 105,000 of the vehicles from the 2012 model year.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says in documents posted Monday that it has received 44 complaints about the problem involving a computer that detects crashes and controls air bag deployment. No related injuries have been reported.

Many drivers told the agency that an air bag warning light came on. In some cases the problem was corrected by replacing the computer, while others kept driving their SUVs with the light on.

 
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On the border of China and Kazakhstan, an international free trade zone has become a showpiece of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road initiative to boost global trade and commerce by improving infrastructure and connectivity.

Chinese state media are filled with stories about the stunning success of Horgos, the youngest city of China’s new Silk Road. Last month at China’s Belt and Road Summit — its biggest diplomatic event of the year — promotional videos about Horgos’ booming economy ran on a loop at the press center.

But Chinese business owners and prospective investors who had recently visited the China-Kazakhstan Horgos International Border Cooperation Center (ICBC), told Reuters they were disappointed by the disconnect between the hype and reality.

Rather than the vibrant 21st century trading post of Beijing’s grand vision, Horgos is instead developing a reputation as China’s very own tax haven.

“We were so unimpressed by what we saw that after looking around for three hours, we turned around and drove eight hours straight back to Urumqi,” said a businessman from the capital of China’s far western region of Xianjiang, who only wanted to give his surname, Ma, due to the sensitivity of the topic.

Several business owners echoed complaints about poor design and low visitor numbers made by Ma, who visited Horgos to investigate the viability of opening a high-end clubhouse.

“You’ve got Kazakh farmers walking around with plastic bags full of cheap Chinese T-shirts and you want me to open a club for government officials and businessmen to meet inside the zone — which, by the way, you can’t drive your car into and doesn’t have any five-star hotels?” Ma said.

On the Chinese side of the border there are five malls selling cheap consumer goods, though traders complain there are not enough visitors.

“Sometimes I’ll sit here for a whole day and not make a single sale,” said Ma Yinggui, 56, who has a market stall selling clothes. “Some Kazakhs are rich but most are poor. They come and haggle over a 20 yuan [$2.93] T-shirt.”

More than five years after the 5.3-square-kilometer trade zone opened, much of the Kazakh side remains empty.

Only 25 of the 63 projects on the Kazakh side have investors, according to Ravil Budukov, ICBC press secretary on the Kazakh side. About 3,000 to 4,000 people enter from Kazakhstan each day and around 10,000 from China, he added.

The Xinjiang and Horgos governments declined to make officials available for comment to Reuters for this article.

Huang Sanping, a senior Xinjiang government official, told Reuters at a news conference in Beijing that he had just returned from a visit to Horgos, a city “performing extremely well. It’s full of vitality and flourishing.”

China’s tax haven

Beijing has bestowed numerous tax breaks and preferential policies on Horgos hoping to stimulate growth in this strategic border town in Xinjiang, a key link on the new Silk Road between China and Central Asia, where the government says it is battling to defeat Islamist extremism.

According to Horgos’ tax bureau, 2,411 companies registered in Horgos last year, taking advantage of five years of no company tax, and a further five years paying half rate.

At least half those companies are registered in Horgos solely for tax purposes, estimates Meng Shen, director of Chanson & Co, a boutique investment bank in Beijing.

Chinese celebrities are opting to register production companies in Horgos and an increasing number of financial services and IT companies are also registering there, according to Guan Xuemei from Shenzhou Shunliban, a tax advisory firm that recently opened an office there.

But with no obligation to operate from Horgos or even in Xinjiang, it is unlikely this policy will create jobs or bring money to what has long been an economic backwater, say experts.

“In theory this is a good policy because it aims to stimulate the local economy,” said Shen. “But Beijing didn’t think through the fact lots of companies wouldn’t actually want to operate from Horgos, which is very far away from China’s economic centers.”

Those who do trade in the “free trade zone” find they face restrictions from both sides.

The Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) — of which Kazakhstan is a member — limits traders from the Kazakh side to importing up to 50 kg (110 lbs) of any goods per month duty-free.

China bans imports of many food products — the Kazakh goods most desired by Chinese consumers worried about food safety at home — and caps traders from taking more than 8,000 yuan ($1,175) worth of goods out each day.

“The EEU is a significant barrier because Russia and Kazakhstan and other Central Asia countries want to develop their own industries, they don’t want to constantly rely on cheap Chinese goods,” said a former Chinese government official turned businessman, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Mao Shishi, 44, who currently raises cattle in nearby Qingshuihe, wants to import wool and wild herbs used in traditional Chinese medicine from Kazakhstan to China through Horgos.

“I’m watching and waiting for any policy changes. Right now we can’t import lamb, fish or wild herbs into China,” Mao said.

Logistics thoroughfare

Plans to develop a parallel special economic zone in Khorgos — as it is known on the Kazakh side — as a logistics hub appear to be having more success.

Trade volumes are skyrocketing at the Khorgos Gateway dry port in Kazakhstan, where container freight is lifted off Chinese trains and onto Kazakh ones because of different gauge rail tracks.

“According to our plans, this year we are going to trans-ship around 100,000 TEUs, five times more than we are doing now,” said Asset Seisenbek, head of the commercial department at Khorgos Gateway, referring to “twenty-foot equivalent units,” an industry measure based on standard shipping container sizes.

Electronics giants HP and Foxconn both ship goods through the dry port, which is faster than sea freight but cheaper than air cargo. One container sent by sea to Europe is about three times cheaper than rail, while air freight is between five to 10 times more expensive, according to Seisenbek.

Last month, China’s COSCO Shipping and Lianyungang port took a 49 percent stake in Khorgos Gateway — which Seisenbek sees as an opportunity to attract more Chinese business.

This sort of investment is what Horgos/Khorgos should hang its hat on, according to Ma, the businessman underwhelmed by the international free trade zone.

“The free trade zone doesn’t need to be that successful if the intercontinental trains and roads take off,” he said. “In the grand scheme of things, that’s the main role for this part of the world.”
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The productivity of American workers was flat in the first three months of this year, while labor costs rose at the fastest pace since the second quarter of last year.

Productivity growth was zero in the January-March quarter after rising at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department reported Monday. It was the weakest performance since productivity had fallen at a 0.1 percent rate in the second quarter of last year but an improvement from an initial reading of a 0.6 percent decline.

Productivity, the amount of output per hour of work, has been weak through most of the current recovery. Many analysts believe finding a way to boost productivity growth is the biggest economic challenge facing the country, but there is no consensus on the cause of the slowdown.

Labor costs rose at a 2.2 percent rate after having fallen at a 4.6 percent rate in the fourth quarter. It was the fastest gain since April-June of last year.

The revision in first quarter productivity had been expected because of the revision to first quarter gross domestic product, the economy’s total output of goods and services. The government initially reported that GDP had risen by a tepid 0.7 percent rate in the January-March perio. But that was revised to show a slightly better reading of a 1.2 percent gain. The boost in output led to the better reading for productivity.

Since 2007, productivity increases have averaged just 1.2 percent. That’s less than half the 2.6 percent average annual gains turned in from 2000 to 2007, when the country was benefiting from increased efficiency from greater integration of computers and the internet into the workplace.

Rising productivity means increased output for each hour of work, which allows employers to boost wages without triggering higher inflation.

The effort to boost productivity back to the levels since before the Great Recession will likely be a key factor in determining whether President Donald Trump will achieve his goal of boosting overall growth from the weak 2.1 percent average seen since the recession. The economy’s potential for growth is a combination of increases in the labor force and growth in productivity.

During the campaign, Trump pledged to double growth to 4 percent or better. Trump last month released a budget that projects faster economic growth will produce $2 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade but that forecasts expects growth to rise over the next few years to a sustained pace of 3 percent annual gains.

 
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