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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan pledged gas, investment and support for the Balkans on Tuesday, in an apparent bid to expand influence in a region frustrated by the slow pace of EU accession.

His two-day trip to Serbia — a mainly Orthodox Christian country at fierce odds with Turkey during Yugoslavia’s bloody collapse — could help grow Turkey’s role in a region that spent centuries under Ottoman rule and remains susceptible to big-power rivalries.

Turkish influence is already strong among fellow Muslims in Bosnia, Albania and Kosovo. Serbia is Russia’s closest ally in the Balkans.

“Together with Serbia and with the entire Balkans, we want to make steps to resolve all the problems,” Erdogan told reporters in Belgrade, saying Ankara planned to build a road between Serbia and Bosnia.

Erdogan and his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vucic, signed a political declaration to create a cooperation body that would meet annually to coordinate joint projects.

Erdogan confident in relationship with Russia

Erdogan expressed confidence that Russia would not object to a Turkish plan to transfer natural gas from its TurkStream project to Serbia.

“We do not want any division of the Balkans or that someone might see those countries as their sphere of influence. We oppose all those who want that,” Erdogan told a business forum.

The visit, and Erdogan’s thanks to Vucic for his support during a failed coup in 2016, will not go unnoticed in the European Union, where some diplomats are concerned about deepening authoritarianism among some Balkan leaders in the absence of tangible progress towards EU accession.

Serbia still looks to join EU

Serbia has to balance its ambition of joining the EU with an affinity felt by many Serbs for fellow Orthodox Russia. It also badly needs investment to grow an economy still in transition from communism and recovering from the demise of Yugoslavia.

“(Turkish) relations with the EU are not that great at the moment; the Balkans is the closest they (Turks) can get to Europe,” Mahmud Busatlija, a foreign investment consultant in Belgrade, told Reuters of Erdogan’s first to Serbia since 2010 when he was prime minister.

“This visit is meant to build up political ties between the two countries. Whether that political cooperation will result in investment depends to a great extent on Serbia and what it can offer to Turkish companies.”

Free trade deal signed

Some 70 Turkish companies do business in Serbia and trade exchanges are expected to reach $1 billion this year. Erdogan said they should target $5 billion and signed deals with Vucic to expand a free trade agreement to include sunflower oil and beef.

Erdogan was due to visit an Ottoman-era fortress in Belgrade later on Tuesday before traveling south on Wednesday to Novi Pazar, center of the Muslim-majority region of Sandzak that has witnessed large-scale emigration to Turkey since the wars of the 1990s.
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The most powerful U.S. business lobby accused the Trump administration of making “poison pill proposals” to sabotage NAFTA on Tuesday, as Mexico’s foreign minister said the demise of the regional trade pact would hurt bilateral cooperation.

The process of renegotiating the 23-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement has turned increasingly acrimonious. Mexico accuses U.S. President Donald Trump of spoiling for a “protectionist war” with proposals aimed at balancing trade.

Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said Tuesday that an end to NAFTA would mark a breaking point in U.S.-Mexican relations and affect bilateral cooperation in other areas.

Mexico is a key partner of the United States in fighting drug trafficking and stemming illegal immigration across the U.S. southern border.

Videgaray spoke after Trump warned again that he would like to scrap the treaty that created one of the world’s biggest trade blocs.

“I happen to think that NAFTA will have to be terminated if we’re going to make it good,” Trump said in an interview with Forbes published  Tuesday.

The Mexican peso weakened for the fifth straight session Tuesday amid the increased tensions, and hit its weakest level against the dollar since early June.

A fourth round of negotiations on modernizing NAFTA, starting in Washington on Wednesday, Has been prolonged by two days to October 17, two sources in Mexico said.

Businesses, Farmers Back NAFTA

Trump’s hard-line position did not appear to have wide support ahead of the talks, with many U.S. businesses and farmers lining up to back the existing agreement.

Speaking in Mexico City, Thomas Donohue, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s president and chief executive, listed several U.S. proposals that he said would undermine $1 trillion in annual trilateral trade, including a “sunset clause” to force regular negotiations.

His comments marked the second broadside the chamber has launched against the Trump administration’s stance on NAFTA in less than a week. It has argued repeatedly that the trade pact is critical to U.S. industries such as agriculture and manufacturing.

“There are several poison pill proposals still on the table that could doom the entire deal,” Donohue said at an event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, where he said the “existential threat” to NAFTA threatened regional security.

U.S. officials have suggested incorporating a sunset clause in NAFTA that would kill it unless it was renegotiated every five years. The officials have also suggested eliminating a key dispute resolution mechanism, much to the dismay of Canada.

Donohue singled out plans to make automakers source more parts in North America and proposed changes to the dispute resolution mechanism as obstacles to NAFTA’s renewal. He also cited plans to limit Canadian and Mexican access to U.S. government procurement rules.

Harm to competitiveness

Automakers in Mexico say excessive content requirements could do serious damage to the industry’s competitiveness.

“The impact would be the opposite of what’s intended: U.S. industry would source more inputs from Asia and less from the U.S. That’s right — this proposal would actually send business overseas,” Donohue said.

He also slammed the emphasis placed by the White House on reducing the U.S. trade deficit.

“It’s the wrong focus and is impossible to achieve without crippling the economy,” he said.

The chamber sent a letter to the White House on Tuesday signed by more than 300 local U.S. business groups in support of NAFTA.

The United States, Mexico and Canada began renegotiating NAFTA this summer.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw if he does not win concessions to reduce a U.S. trade deficit of around $64 billion with Mexico.

“The president has strongly criticized this agreement for years. We realize that as bad as it has been for us, it has been great for Mexico and Canada. Naturally they will defend this lopsided accord,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Tuesday.

“To rebalance will require substantial change and not mere tweaking. The president has vowed to bring jobs and investment back to America. We will do no less,” he added.
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European Union Council President Donald Tusk said Tuesday that Brexit negotiations will not move to the next stage focused on trade relations before December at the earliest — not later this month, as Britain was hoping.

Tusk bemoaned the slow pace of divorce negotiations with London and said it was still far too early to move to the next phase of planning a new trade relationship because the initial breakup talks have yet to reach “sufficient progress.”

“We are negotiating in good faith, and we still hope that the so-called ‘sufficient progress’ will be possible by December,” Tusk said.

He added that “if it turns out that the talks continue at a slow pace, then together with our U.K. friends we will have to think about where we are heading.” He did not elaborate.

Divorce talks are in fifth round

Negotiators are holding a fifth round of talks this week on divorce proceedings, centered on the rights of citizens in each other’s nations once the breakup is complete, the border between Ireland and the U.K. and the financial commitments Britain will have to pay.

As a compromise on those issues remains elusive, both sides have said the onus is on the other to take the initiative. On Monday, British Prime Minister Theresa May insisted “the ball is in their court.”

When asked about it following his lunch with his British counterpart David Davis, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier chided journalists chasing him and said: “Brexit is not a game. Don’t forget it.”

More than a year has passed since Britain voted to leave the EU, and six months since Britain triggered the two-year countdown to its EU exit.  

May hints talks may not be completed

On Monday, May said the U.K. was planning for the possibility that the two-year negotiating period might end without a deal.

Critics have accused the government of failing to prepare for a “no deal” Brexit, which would mean an end to tariff-free trade with the EU and would be a shock to the British economy.

May focused on a ‘good deal’

May said Tuesday Britain wanted to strike a good deal with the EU, but “we have teams of people working on every possible outcome.”

“If there is no deal, we have to be prepared for it,” she told LBC radio.

Tusk insisted the EU is hoping to avoid that.

“We hear from London that the U.K. government is preparing for a ‘no deal’ scenario. I would like to say very clearly that the EU is not working on such a scenario,” the EU leader insisted.
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The global economy is expected to expand to a 3.6 percent annual rate this year, up from last year’s rate of 3.2 percent.   

Tuesday’s assessment comes from the International Monetary Fund as economic officials from the World Bank and nations around the world gather to discuss growth, jobs, worries, ideas, and pleas for action this week in Washington.

The global lender’s experts say improving investment, industrial production, business and consumer confidence are helping economic expansion. The IMF says advanced nations, including the United States, will grow more slowly than developing countries.

The report puts U.S. economic expansion at 2.2 percent this year, up from 2016. IMF experts say future U.S. growth is uncertain because proposals to cut taxes and regulations and boost spending on infrastructure have not yet made their way through a divided legislature.

The outlook for China has been cut slightly, but remains strong at 6.8 percent this year.

The economy in sub-Saharan-Africa is expected to reach a 2.6 percent annual growth rate this year, and 3.4 percent next year. That is a little slower than earlier projections.

IMF officials say national leaders need to make reforms now “while times are good.” They urge efforts to boost potential output, reduce inequality, and make national economies more resilient. The global lender also calls on advanced economies to keep interest rates low, at least until inflation begins to rise, and work to strengthen international economic cooperation.

The economic experts warn that commercial credit problems in China, faster interest rate increases in advanced nations, or a drastic rollback of rules intended to prevent another financial crisis could derail economic growth.
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Global unemployment this year stands at more than 201 million, an increase of 3.4 million compared to 2016, says the International Labor Organization.

The ILO says the private sector, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, plays a crucial role in creating decent jobs around the world.

The ILO study (World Employment and Social Outlook 2017: Sustainable Enterprises and Jobs) reports private businesses account for nearly 3 billion workers, or 87 percent of total global employment. It says a strong public sector is the foundation for growth, job creation and poverty reduction.  

Deborah Greenfield, the ILO deputy director general for policy, says investing in workers is a key to sustainability. She also says providing formal training for permanent employees results in higher wages, higher productivity and lower unit labor costs. Greenfield says temporary workers are at a disadvantage.

“But, intensified use of temporary employment is associated with lower wages and lower productivity without achieving any gains in unit labor costs,” Greenfield said. “The report also finds that on-the-job training is an important driver of innovation. Since temporary workers are rarely offered training, this might also affect innovation in firms in a negative way.”  

The ILO report says in some cases, innovation has led to the hiring of more temporary workers, mainly women. It notes, however, that while this might be beneficial in the short term, in the long term, it depresses wages and leads to lower productivity because of the instability of temporary work and lack of benefits.

The report, however, finds innovation increases competitiveness and job creation for enterprises. It says innovative firms tend to be more productive, employ more educated workers, offer more training and hire more female workers.
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American Richard H. Thaler was awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize for Economics — officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.

The award committee said Thaler was chosen “for his contributions to behavioral economics.”

“By exploring the consequences of limited rationality, social preferences, and lack of self-control,” Thaler “has shown how these human traits systematically affect individual decisions as well as market outcomes,” the Swedish Academy said.

Thaler developed the theory of “mental accounting,” explaining how people simplify financial decision-making by creating separate accounts in their minds, focusing on the narrow impact of each individual decision rather than its overall effect.

Thaler was born 1945 in East Orange, New Jersey and received his Ph.D. in 1974 from the University of Rochester, New York. He is a Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Illinois.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced the award Monday. It carries a $1.1 million prize.
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Ants and beetles in the kitchen? Normally that’d close down a restaurant immediately, but for a unique eatery in Bangkok, bugs in the beef ragu and pests in the pesto are the business plan.

Tucking into insects is nothing new in Thailand, where street vendors pushing carts of fried crickets and buttery silkworms have long fed locals and adventurous tourists alike. But bugs are now fine-dining at Insects in the Backyard, a Bangkok bistro aiming to revolutionize views of nature’s least-loved creatures and what you can do with them.

“In Thailand, there is a long history of local populations, of people consuming insects and they continue to do, in large amounts. But it’s essentially as a snack, not a part of dishes, not a part of cuisine,” said Regan Suzuki Pairojmahakij, a Canadian partner at the eatery. “We are interested in moving people away from seeing insects from purely as a snack to be a part of a gourmet and a delicious cuisine.”

That’s the responsibility of executive chef Thitiwat Tantragarn, a veteran of some of Thailand’s top restaurants. Together with his team he’s designed a menu that features seven different insects, including ants, crickets, bamboo caterpillars, silkworms and giant water beetles.

“It’s a new thing,” Thitiwat said. “You live in the world, you need to learn the new thing.” He said he’s cooked with pork and chicken for a long time, but insects are “a new world of cooking [and a] new lesson.”

For Kelvarin Chotvichit, a lawyer from Bangkok, the menu has been a revelation of taste and texture.

“When I taste this, it’s opened my new attitudes about foods: that insects are one of the foods that’s edible,” he said. “And it’s tasty too. It’s not weird as you thought. And the feeling — it’s crispy; it’s like a snack. Yeah, I like it.”

United Nations food experts have pushed insects as a source of nutrition for years. Studies show they’re higher in protein, good fats and minerals than traditional livestock. Even when commercially farmed, their environmental impact is far lower, needing less feed and emitting less carbon.

Wholesaler Amornsiri Sompornsuksawat is one the suppliers to Insects in the Backyard. The prospect of a new market — the fine-dining sector — is enough to make her salivate.

“I hope that people will eat more of my bugs and I can sell more of them,” she said. “We can have new menus, replacing the old familiar ones. It’s great.”

Insects in the Backyard has only been open a matter of weeks, so it’s too early to tell whether its mission to metamorphose insect cuisine is on track.

Amornrat Simapaisan, a local shop manager, tucked in quite happily to her watermelon and cricket salad on a recent evening.

“It’s tasty. It’s munchy,” she said.

But her dining partner exemplified the biggest problem the restaurant faces: that lingering feeling of disgust.

“I still have a barrier, something on my mind to stop me from eating it,” said Patr Srisook, a freelance photographer. “But, yes, it kind of tastes like normal, nothing, like normal food.”

And that is the message from the restaurant itself: Judge us on our food.

“There is obviously the shock value with insects and that might bring some people into through the door,” Pairojmahakij said. “But, essentially, for the longevity or sustainability of the restaurant, and, for the sector of the edible insects as a whole, it has to stand on its on legs, so to speak. It has to be attractive. It has to be delicious. And it actually has to add something to the cuisine as we know it.”
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The New Zealand currency sunk to a fresh four-month low on Monday as a small nationalist party carried out negotiations to determine the country’s next government.

The currency fell to $0.7160, its lowest since early June, from $0.7090 on Friday evening.

New Zealand’s inconclusive election on Sept. 23 has generated intense political uncertainty that has weighed on the Kiwi.

A final vote count on Saturday showed the governing National Party lost some ground to the center-left Labour-Green bloc from a preliminary tally, even though it still held the largest number of seats in parliament.

The populist New Zealand First Party holds the balance of power and started negotiations with both Labour and National on Sunday.

The negotiation talks continued on Monday as the clock counts down to New Zealand First’s self-imposed deadline of Oct. 12 to announce which party it would put in government.
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Born and raised in this Texas Gulf Coast beach town, James Wheeler Jr. finds himself sawing plywood and hanging sheet rock at a time when he would normally be leading deep-sea fishing excursions, trying to hook tuna or Spanish mackerel by the cooler-full.

Since Hurricane Harvey came through Port Aransas just before Labor Day — damaging or destroying 80 percent of homes and business and wiping out the lucrative summer season’s final weeks — the 38-year-old boat captain has become an amateur builder, working to repair the roof of a sea headquarters building where he and others dock their pleasure crafts.

“Port Aransas is built on the tourist dollar,” said Wheeler, ticking off attractions besides fishing: surfing, nature reserves, seafood restaurants and beaches where it’s always cocktail hour. “That dollar’s not coming right now.”

In many Texas seaside enclaves, the owners of bars and eateries, inns and T-shirt shops are facing a painful paradox: Tourists who are their economic lifeblood likely won’t return until the rebuild is in full swing, but picking up the pieces after Harvey may not truly begin without the profits tourists bring.

“That’s the risk,” said David Teel, president of the Texas Travel Industry Association. “The recovery will come. But it will never be fast enough for these folks.”

Insurance money and support from federal grants will help residents rebuild homes and businesses, and in some cases even cover businesses’ lost income and employees’ lost wages. But that will pale in comparison to what tourists would normally be spending, likely helping ensure that recovery moves more slowly.

Locals expect the normally busy Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s holidays to be slow. Even the possibility of getting back to business by spring break looks bleak.

Visitors to Texas’ Gulf Coast spent $18.7 billion last year, according to state estimates, and the region’s tourism industry employed 170,000-plus people. Visitors spent $221 million in 2016 just in Port Aransas, a onetime fishing village that’s now home to around 4,000 full-time residents.

In other years, October is when “Winter Texans” — part-time residents from colder locales — take up temporary residence, while shorter-term tourists come for the weekends. The influx of people is normally enough to keep the economy robust through the holidays and until spring.

Wheeler says he’d usually be organizing large fishing trips nearly every day, but now takes just one smaller excursion a week.

“It’s not that no one wants to come,” Wheeler said. “There’s just nowhere for them to stay yet.”

Drivers entering Port Aransas encounter bulldozers tearing into a roadside mountain of debris more than three-stories high.

Power company and internet provider vans are everywhere, as crews repair infrastructure.  Golf carts — a favored mode of local transportation — have to avoid shattered glass and mangled light poles. They’re more likely, these days, to be filled with Salvation Army personnel or construction crews than tourists hitting the beach.

“We are Port A Proud and on the Rebound,” proclaims the website of the chamber of commerce, whose office was damaged. It lists six local hotels planning to be open by Christmas.

Sweeping dust out of the gutted Destination Beach and Surf store, Olya Soya said some regular visitors have come as volunteers helping to rebuild, while others simply gawk at Harvey’s wrath.

“They want to see what it looks like now. It’s very different,” said Soya, 24, who instead of working in the air-conditioned store sweats through her days on a makeshift debris removal crew. Beside her is a towering plaster shark that survived the storm despite extensive damage to the store it guarded.

Harvey’s eye passed directly over nearby Rockport, where operators hope to have 500 hotel rooms available by November — down from 1,500 pre-Harvey.

“Yes, we’re open for business. But please be patient,” said Diane Probst, president of the local chamber of commerce, adding that visitors should expect frustratingly slow debris removal.

Back in Port Aransas, dozens of restaurants and businesses have reopened, at least part time. One shop, Gratitude, suffered only light damage, despite being crammed with fragile keepsakes and knickknacks such as wind chimes and oversized wine glasses proclaiming “Summer is for mimosas and mermaids.”

“You almost feel guilty opening because there are a lot of stores and places that can’t,” said owner Sally Marco, 60. “But it’s nice to have people smile when they come in.”

One bright spot is that area beaches didn’t suffer major ill-effects. On a recent, balmy Saturday, seagulls and pelicans outnumbered the few surfers, children splashing in the waves and couples strolling on the sand with dogs.

“As these communities begin to open back up — and little pieces will open — the good part about it is, they’ve got a beach,” said Teel, of the state tourist association. “And it’s a great beach.”
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Sudan’s currency strengthened to 18.5 pounds to the dollar from 20.2 on the black market on Sunday, the first day of business since the United States lifted trade sanctions, raising a glimmer of hope for recovery in the war-torn country.

The decision to suspend 20-year sanctions and lift a trade embargo, unfreeze assets and remove financial restrictions came after a U.S. assessment that Sudan had made progress on counter terrorism cooperation and on long-raging internal conflicts such as in Darfur.

The announcement helped push Sudan’s pound currency to its strongest level on the black market since at least July, when it was sent reeling to around 21.5 pounds to the dollar after the United States postponed a final decision on the sanctions relief until October.

Sudan’s central bank has held the official exchange rate at 6.7 pounds to the dollar but currency is largely unavailable at that price.

As the pound has weakened over the past year in the import-dependent country, inflation has soared, hitting 34.61 percent in August year-on-year and compounding economic problems that began in 2011 when the south seceded, taking with it three-quarters of the country’s oil output.

“The lifting of sanctions is good news … but we want to see prices come down, because in the past the government has said that rising prices and reduced services were because of the economic blockade, but now there is no blockade,” said Nawal Ahmed, a 58-year-old government employee.

Prices have also been driven up by cuts in fuel and electricity subsidies the government imposed to save cash.

Currency traders said the stronger pound rate would be short-lived unless banks can start offering dollars again, which they saw as unlikely.

“If the banks don’t supply dollars we expect the price of the dollar to rise again … there’s a currency shortage in the market and we know that the government does not have enough hard currency,” one trader said.

Analysts and officials have said that Sudan must now carry out tough economic reforms such as floating its currency if it hopes to benefit from the sanctions relief and begin to attract badly needed new investment.

“Attracting foreign investment requires reforming the political and legal environment and fighting corruption and government bureaucracy,” said Mohammed al-Jack, professor of economics and political science at the University of Khartoum.

“Without clear financial policies, there will be no real and long-term improvement to the Sudanese pound exchange rate,” he said.
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Donald Trump boasts of making great deals, but a financial report filed with the British government shows he has lost millions of dollars for three years running on a couple of his more recent big investments: his Scottish golf resorts.

A report from Britain’s Companies House released late Friday shows losses last year at the two resorts more than doubled to 17.6 million pounds ($23 million). Revenue also fell sharply.

In the report, Trump’s company attributed the results partly to having shut down its Turnberry resort for half the year while building a new course there and fixing up an old one.

Setbacks in Scotland

His company has faced several setbacks since it ventured into Scotland a dozen years ago, and its troubles recently have mounted.

The company has angered some local residents near its second resort on the North Sea with what they say are its bullying tactics to make way for more development. The company also has lost a court fight to stop an offshore windmill farm near that resort, drew objections from environmental regulators over building plans there in August and appears at risk of losing a bid to host the coveted Scottish Open at its courses.

Amanda Miller, a spokeswoman for the Trump Organization, declined to comment about the results.

Trump handed over management of his company to his two adult sons before becoming U.S. president, but still retains his financial interest in it.

It’s not clear how big a role Trump’s setbacks in Scotland have played in the losses. In addition to the Turnberry shutdown, the company also noted in its report that it took an 8 million pound ($10 million) loss because of fluctuations in the value of the British pound last year.

The company reported that revenue at the two courses fell 21 percent to 9 million pounds ($11.7 million) in 2016 from 11.4 million pounds ($15 million) a year earlier.

​Golf business closely watched

Trump’s golf business is closely watched because he has made big investments buying and developing courses in recent years, a risky wager in a struggling industry. It is also a bit of departure for the company. Trump has mostly played it safe in other parts of his business, putting his name on buildings owned by others and taking a marketing and management fee instead of investing himself.

Much of the anger toward Trump in Scotland is centered around his resort outside Aberdeen overlooking the North Sea coast and its famed sand dunes stretching into the distance. Called the Trump International Golf Links, it is here that a local fisherman became a national hero of sorts for refusing a $690,000 offer from Trump for his land and where footage was shot for a documentary on Trump’s fights with the residents, called “Tripping Up Trump.”

Many locals praise the course for bringing more tourists to the area and helping the local economy, but Trump’s critics there are outspoken and now, with their target the U.S. president, playing to a worldwide audience.

When Trump visited his North Sea resort in June last year, two local residents ran Mexican flags up a pole in protest against the then-candidate’s immigration policies. It was a snub that came just after the U.K. Supreme Court ruled unanimously against Trump’s efforts to stop the wind farm, a Scottish government decision to strip him of his title as business ambassador for Scotland and the revocation of an honorary degree from Aberdeen’s Robert Gordon University.

Both the Scottish government and the university cited Trump’s comments about Muslims during the campaign.

Fight against second course

This summer, Scotland’s Environmental Protection Agency and the Scottish Natural Heritage, a conservation group, sent letters to the Aberdeenshire Council urging it to reject Trump’s plans for the second course if he did not make certain changes. A vote by the local government, expected in August, was postponed.

Still, the two courses are widely praised for their beauty, and tourists on buses like to stop by the North Sea course for a round.

Whether any of this will hurt profits at Trump’s Scottish business in the long run is another matter.

In the financial report, Eric Trump, the president’s son and a director of British subsidiary that owns the two resorts, included a letter expressing confidence that the resorts will attract plenty of golfers. He said Turnberry has received “excellent reviews” from its guests, and that the reopening of the resort is ushering in an “exciting new era” for the company.
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