Experts at credit rating agencies are watching Washington’s political squabbling over budgets and spending closely, and they might make another cut in the U.S. credit rating if the Republican-controlled White House, Senate and House cannot reach an agreement.

President Donald Trump has promised to build a massive wall along the southern U.S. border in a bid to stop illegal immigration. Trump has said he will press Congress hard to fund the controversial measure, even if it stalls action on other budget issues and forces the government to shut down.

Some of Trump’s fellow Republicans who ran on promises to limit or cut government spending are reluctant to fund the measure, and most rival Democrats oppose the wall.

U.S. law provides for a “debt ceiling,” meaning the Treasury cannot borrow more money unless Congress agrees to raise the limit. That limit was reached months ago, and the federal government will apparently run out of cash by the end of September or early October if nothing changes.

The political situation is made more complex by the fast-approaching end of the budget year and the need for Congress to agree on next year’s spending priorities.

Congress and presidents have bickered over budgets in the past, and in 2011 a debt ceiling impasse prompted the Standard & Poor’s agency to make the first downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.

The Fitch agency Wednesday said failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner would prompt a review of the nation’s credit rating. Fitch currently gives the United States its top rating.

Moody’s experts Thursday wrote that they expected Washington politicians to work out their differences, but that failure to reach an agreement could prompt the government to shut down, disrupting the economy more and more if the impasse drags on.

Moody’s noted that a previous government shutdown prompted lenders to demand higher interest rates, raising the cost of government by about $1.3 billion in just one year.

Moody’s and other experts have urged Congress to remove the debt ceiling because it does not restrain spending but does add “to the noise” around the budget process.
…

President Donald Trump’s comments at a Phoenix rally that he will probably end up terminating the North American Free Trade Agreement brought cheers from the crowd but groans from the state’s top business group.

Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Glenn Hamer posted a video calling any termination a “terrible mistake” within hours of Trump’s remarks Tuesday night. Hamer is in Mexico on a trade mission with a bipartisan delegation of about two dozen state lawmakers.

 

“It would be a mistake that the administration would feel each and every day,” Hamer said. “And why would that be? The administration has set a noble goal of 3 percent growth. You can’t get there if your start unraveling trade agreements.

 

“You need good tax policy, you need good regulatory policy and you need good trade policy,” he said.

Trump hints NAFTA is done

Trump said at the campaign-style rally that he believes Mexico and Canada are coming out ahead on the 23-year-old trade agreement. Renegotiations began in recent weeks.

 

“Personally, I don’t think we can make a deal, because we have been so badly taken advantage of,” Trump said. “I think we’ll end up probably terminating NAFTA at some point, OK? Probably.”

Modernizing agreement

Republican Sens. Jeff Flake and John McCain have called for modernizing an agreement they say has brought huge benefits for Arizonans.

 

Flake has put on a full court press in recent months, launched an effort in May to highlight what he calls the agreement’s “huge boon to Arizona and the U.S.” He’s put out videos featuring people and businesses that have benefited from the trade pact.

On Wednesday, he said he won’t stop that effort.

“I will continue to speak up for the countless Arizonans whose jobs and businesses rely on the billions of dollars that NAFTA injects into our state’s economy,” Flake said in a statement.

 
…

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he was willing to shut down the government to get funding for a U.S.-Mexico border wall, complicating two must-pass measures Congress will take up in September: a spending package and raising the debt ceiling.

Here is what you need to know about both, and the potential for a shutdown of the U.S. government:

What is a shutdown?

Congress must pass annual spending bills around the end of the federal fiscal year on September 30 to fund much of the U.S. government. When disagreements prevent that, which is frequent, lawmakers often pass a temporary bill extending existing spending levels with no changes for days, weeks or months, while they work on a longer-lasting deal. When they cannot agree on either a new spending plan or a short-term extension, the government shuts down. That has happened many times since the 1970s, usually for a few days, and can rattle markets.

Congress will return from its long summer recess September 5. At that time, it will have only about 12 working days to approve spending measures to keep the government open.

What if Congress fails?

If spending measures are not passed before October 1, portions of the government will begin to shut down and nonessential employees will go without pay until an agreement is reached.

The government most recently shut down for about two weeks in October 2013 over funding for former President Barack Obama’s health care law. There were three shutdowns in the 1990s, the longest lasting 21 days. In the 1970s and 1980s, there were 14 shutdowns, some partial and most lasting only a few days.

What is the debt ceiling?

The debt ceiling is a legislative limit on how much money the federal government can borrow through debt issued by the U.S. Treasury. Once the limit is reached, Congress must raise it or the government cannot continue borrowing money and would default, or be unable to pay its bills.

The Treasury has said it wants Congress to increase the debt ceiling by September 29, although default most likely could be staved off until mid-October, thanks to “extraordinary measures” the Treasury put in place in March to delay a debt reckoning.

Legislation to raise the debt limit will need to be adopted, at the very latest, by early to mid-October.

What if the ceiling is not raised?

If the debt ceiling is not raised, the government would not be able to borrow more money or pay its bills, including payments on its debts, which could hurt the U.S. credit rating.

Political gridlock has never led to the United States reaching its debt ceiling and its bills going unpaid, but there have been close calls. An August 2011 standoff cost the country its top-notch bond rating from the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s and caused the most jarring two weeks in financial markets since the 2007-09 global financial crisis.

How are the budget and debt ceiling related?

The two move on separate tracks, but are likely to get tangled together, with Republican opponents of a debt ceiling increase most likely demanding federal spending cuts. Some analysts say Congress may try to tackle both issues at the same time.

What are the politics?

Both the spending and debt ceiling bills can pass the Republican-led House of Representatives by a simple majority vote, but will need 60 votes to pass the Senate, where Republicans hold 52 of 100 seats, meaning they will need some Democratic support.

Trump made his U.S.-Mexico border wall a central promise of his 2016 presidential campaign. He also promised that Mexico would pay for the wall, but Mexico has steadfastly refused and Trump has largely stopped talking about that pledge.

Conservative House Republicans agree with the Republican president on the need for a wall and say funding for it should be a priority in any spending legislation. Some of them have already indicated they are willing to shut down the government to get it.

Moderate Republicans have called a shutdown unwise, and Republican leaders are determined to prevent one, fearing it would worsen doubts about the party’s ability to govern.

Democrats are uniformly opposed to Trump’s wall and say the responsibility for a shutdown would rest solely with Republicans.

The Trump administration reversed course earlier this month and said it would back a “clean” raising of the debt ceiling, meaning it would not be tied to other policy measures.

Democrats and moderate Republicans also support a clean debt-ceiling increase. But conservative Republicans, especially in the House, often use debt-ceiling legislation to insist on changes to spending, making them opposed to a clean bill.
…

Just beyond the outskirts of Cairo on a desert road to the Suez Canal, a sprawling industrial zone is coming to life as Egypt’s leather industry leaves behind its ancient tanning quarters for modern workshops of Robiki Leather City.

The new complex is part of a major expansion drive of a sector Egypt considers as one of its most competitive. The trade ministry has set an official target for leather exports to reach over $1 billion a year in 2020, from about $200 million a year currently.

By mid-2018, Robiki should house the entire supply chain, from animal slaughtering to finished leather production, allowing global manufacturers to source materials and export final goods in a single location, said Mohamed El Gohary, chairman of a state firm marketing the site.

“The value added of our exports will increase five times when we reach the stage where we’re exporting final products like shoes and bags,” Gohary said.

Foreign investors can begin purchasing space in Robiki in 2018, and the zone has received strong interest from Italian companies, Gohary said.

Egyptian exports were given a boost when Egypt floated its pound currency last year as part of an International Monetary Fund loan program.

With projects like Robiki, Egypt hopes to pull back capital that fled after its 2011 political uprising. In the fiscal year ending in June, it netted $8.7 billion in foreign direct investment and is targeting above $10 billion this year.

Around 220 tanneries are being relocated to Robiki, said Mohamed Harby, head of a leather tanning industry group.

They are moving under the orders of the government, which is paying for the transfer of machinery, constructing subsidized housing for workers and facilitating low-interest loans for businesses looking to expand.

The tanners’ centuries-old home of Magra Al-Ayoon in Old Islamic Cairo, which runs along the city’s ancient aqueduct, will most likely be developed into a tourist site, though plans have yet to be finalized, said Omar Khorshid, a trade ministry adviser to the Robiki project.

There, workers dye animal hides in small, ramshackle buildings without infrastructure for absorbing hazardous waste byproducts.

“Egypt a long time ago was a leader in leather tanning, and for a period of time everyone wanted to expand, but there was just no space to,” Ahmed Al-Gabbas, managing director of Al-Rowad Tannery, said at his factory in Robiki.

Al-Rowad, one of the country’s three largest tanneries, will complete its relocation over the next month. Gabbas said the company was using the space to scale up and triple exports over the next year.
…

Oil is the main revenue source in Alaska. This year, the trans-Alaska pipeline celebrated 40 years of service. From Alaska, VOA’s Natasha Mozgovaya looks at the history of North America’s largest oil field.
…

Congressional Republicans, seeking to address the complaints of small businesses, are floating changes to their controversial proposal to eliminate business tax deductions for debt interest payments, business lobbyists said Tuesday.

A top U.S. Republican on tax policy acknowledged that modifications are in the works but did not provide details.

The debt interest proposal, long seen by Republican policymakers as necessary to help drive economic growth, is backed by large companies with ready access to equity financing that they could substitute for debt if eliminating the interest deduction made issuing debt too costly. Debt-dependent small-business owners, farmers and ranchers don’t have that luxury.

As Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration slog ahead with a push to overhaul the U.S. tax code, a key task is figuring out how to resolve conflicting groups’ priorities, with business debt interest a clear example.

The tax code has not been overhauled since 1986, partly because reconciling these conflicts can be so difficult.

“We’ve asked businesses large and small to look at that, test-drive it and give us back their feedback,” House of Representatives tax committee Chairman Kevin Brady said in remarks at an event in Louisville, Kentucky, on Tuesday, without offering specifics about the modified proposal.

His staff at the committee had no comment.

Businesses lobbyists said the panel’s lawmakers have quietly agreed to focus on exemptions for small businesses, including farmers and ranchers, and an exemption for land.

Interest deduction

Lawmakers have also discussed a possible partial elimination of the interest deduction, with an exemption for existing debt, or eliminating the deduction only for businesses deemed to have an excessive amount of debt, according to lobbyists.

Brady is one of the “Big Six” negotiators from Congress and the Trump administration who are guiding the tax reform debate.

At the Louisville event, he described rolling back the business interest deduction as a “trade-off” for another proposal to accelerate expensing, which would allow businesses to write off investments in plants and equipment more quickly.

He said net interest deduction is one of a number of tax breaks that lawmakers are looking to eliminate to help pay for lower business tax rates. Republicans say tax cuts will help drive annual U.S. economic growth above the 3 percent mark.

Independent analysts say that eliminating the interest deduction would raise more than $1 trillion in federal revenues.

Republicans want to cut the corporate income tax rate to 20-25 percent from 35 percent. But they have been hard-pressed to pay for such a cut since jettisoning a border-adjusted import tax that would have raised more than $1 trillion.
…

Indigenous people living on Peru’s largest oil field concession have seized some facilities operated by Frontera Energy demanding that the government apply an indigenous rights law before signing a new contract with the Canadian company, a tribal chieftain said on Tuesday.

The so-called prior consultation law, passed in 2011, requires the government to seek input from indigenous people before approving any development plans that might affect them.

Tribal chiefs in Frontera’s Block 192 said the government has refused to carry out the consultation process even though it is negotiating a new contract with Frontera, whose 2-year contract is due to expire this month.

“If the government says it’ll carry out prior consultation, we’ll automatically end the protest,” Wilmer Chavez, chief of the community of Los Jardines, said in a telephone interview.

Chavez said that protesters from the indigenous community had taken control of oil drums and other facilities to curb output in Block 192.

Government offices tasked with oil drilling and indigenous rights did not respond to requests for comment.

Frontera, which produced some 7,500 barrels a day from Block 192 in July, said in a statement that it values community consent and that only the government could legally carry out prior consultation.

“Since our arrival to the area of Block 192, Frontera Energy has been working to gain the community’s trust and act as a mediator to ease potential tensions between the government, the industry and the community,” the company said in the statement.

Amazonian tribes in Block 192 want the government to sign new commitments for the clean-up of oil pollution and for access to health care and education in the remote region before awarding Frontera a new contract, said Chavez.

Four other chiefs, speaking to foreign media in Lima where they had traveled to meet with government officials, described similar demands in the 16 out of 20 villages they represent in Block 192 and vowed to stage their own protests unless prior consultation was applied.

Carlos Sandi, chief of the Corrientes River basin, told reporters that the government must fulfill its promises to clean up oil pollution that is sickening local residents.

U.S. oil company Occidental Petroleum Corp operated Block 192 for about 40 years before Argentine energy company Pluspetrol took over in 2001.

Frontera said negotiations with Peru on a new deal for Block192 were ongoing and that in coming weeks it should have a better idea of whether it will continue to operate there.
…

Jordan has opened its first job center inside a refugee camp, unlocking work opportunities across the country for thousands living in the world’s largest Syrian refugee camp, the U.N. labor agency said Tuesday.

So far, more than 800 refugees in the Zaatari camp in Jordan, which borders Syria and is home to nearly 80,000 people, have registered for work permits at the job center, the International Labor Organization said.

“Refugee workers now have a clear address to resort to when searching for jobs and applying for work permits, where they can receive all necessary information and benefit from expert support,” Maha Kattaa, ILO response coordinator in Jordan, said in a statement.

The Jordanian government says the country is home to 1.4 million Syrians, of whom more than 660,000 are registered with the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR.

Allowing refugees to work in host countries relieves pressure on social services, boosts the local economy and gives refugees the financial security to re-establish their lives, said UNHCR, which manages work permits and the flows in and out of the Zaatari camp.

“I am confident that having an increased number of Syrians entering the labor market will positively impact the local economy and bring stability to refugee families,” said Stefano Severe, a UNHCR spokesman in Jordan.

Earlier this month, Jordan became the first Arab country to issue Syrian refugees with a new type of work permit that opens up the growing construction sector.

The center, launched by the Jordanian government, will run job fairs and employment matching services with businesses across the country.

There are also plans to open a second center in a nearby camp in Azraq, ILO said.
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Argentina’s main labor unions took to the streets of the capital on Tuesday demanding more jobs and protesting center-right President Mauricio Macri’s economic policies.

Tens of thousands of workers gathered in the historic Plaza de Mayo criticizing Macri, who is trying to lower labor costs to attract investment and jump-start an economy that emerged from recession in the second half of last year.

“If some retrograde [in the government] thinks that lowering wages, precarious living conditions and destroying trade unions is going to line up investments … we say that is very wrong,” said Juan Carlos Schmid, a leader of Argentina’s largest umbrella union, the CGT.

Standing on a podium at the protest, he said the CGT would meet in late September to discuss a potential strike.

Macri told Reuters in an interview this month his government was negotiating labor agreements sector by sector rather than trying to pass a comprehensive labor reform like the one approved in neighboring Brazil.

Unions fear more drastic changes could be coming after mid-term legislative elections in October, however, especially after a primary vote on Aug. 13 pointed to strong support for Macri’s coalition.

Macri is trying to open Argentina’s long protected economy and focus on competitive industries like oil and agriculture, but has seen some manufacturing jobs lost in the meantime.

The most recent employment data showed the jobless rate rose to 9.2 percent in the first quarter of the year from 7.6 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
…

Ford Motor Co. and a Chinese automaker said Tuesday they are looking into setting up a joint venture to develop and manufacture electric cars in China.

 

Ford’s potential venture with Anhui Zotye Automobile Co. adds to the global auto industry’s rising activity in electric vehicles for China, which passed the United States last year as the biggest market for them.

 

Chinese planners who see electrics as a promising industry and a way to clean up smog-choked cities are pushing automakers to speed up development.

 

Ford previously said it plans to offer electric versions of 70 percent of its models in China by 2025.

 

Privately owned Zotye Auto, headquartered in the eastern city of Huangshan, produces its own electric vehicles and said sales in the first seven months of this year rose 56 percent over the same period of 2016 to 16,000.

 

“This presents us with an exciting opportunity to leverage each other’s strengths,” Zotye chairman Jin Zheyong said in a joint statement.

 

Sales of pure-electric and gasoline-electric hybrids in China rose 50 percent last year over 2015 to 336,000 vehicles, or 40 percent of global demand. U.S. sales totaled 159,620.

 

Beijing has supported sales with subsidies and a planned quota system that would require automakers to produce electric cars or buy credits from companies that do.

 

Ford said it expects China’s market for all-electrics and hybrids to grow to annual sales of 6 million by 2025.

 

Volvo Cars announced plans this year to make electric cars in China for global sale starting in 2019. General Motors Co., Volkswagen AG, Nissan Motor Co. and others also have announced plans to make electric vehicles in China.

 

 
…

Ford Tuesday became the latest carmaker to launch a car scrappage scheme in Britain, joining the likes of BMW and Mercedes-Benz, after months of procrastination from the government over whether to begin a national program.

The U.S. automaker is offering customers a 2,000 pound ($2,580) discount off a range of Ford models when they trade in vehicles registered before the end of 2009.

BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Vauxhall, the British version of the Opel brand sold on the continent, have all launched similar schemes in recent weeks to incentivize motorists to reduce emissions by replacing their gas-guzzling models with greener cars.

The plans come after Britain delayed in July a decision over whether to introduce a nationwide or targeted vehicle scrappage scheme, with a consultation due to take place later this year, despite worries over emissions levels.

“Ford shares society’s concerns over air quality,” its managing director in Britain Andy Barratt said Tuesday.

“Removing generations of the most polluting vehicles will have the most immediate positive effect on air quality.”

Car sales slowing

Ford, BMW, Vauxhall and Mercedes sell around 1 million cars in Britain, more than a third of all new car registrations.

The scrappage schemes will help support sales at a time when demand for new cars is beginning to slide substantially for the first time in around six years.

In July, new car registrations fell for the fourth consecutive month, hit by a number of factors including uncertainty over Brexit and lack of clarity over future government plans around new levies on diesel models.

Britain’s last government-backed scrappage scheme came in the wake of the financial crisis and ran for nearly a year from mid-2009, helping to support the car sector, which had been hit by nose-diving sales.
…

The U.S. Air Force has awarded Boeing and Northrop Grumman separate contracts to continue work on the replacement of the aging Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile system, the Pentagon said on Friday.

Though the award for the new Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) comes amid rising tensions with North Korea, the Air Force had asked the defense industry last summer for proposals to replace the aging ICBM system and its nuclear cruise missiles as the military moved ahead with a costly modernization of its aging atomic weapons systems.

“The Minuteman III is 45 years old. It is time to upgrade,” Air Force Chief of Staff General David Goldfein said in a statement on Monday.

Northrop Grumman was awarded $328 million, and Boeing $349 million over the three-year contract.

A milestone contract

The relatively small award is a milestone that would allow Boeing and Northrop to continue parallel detailed development and prototyping for the Minuteman replacement. The Pentagon’s office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) has said the total could cost the United States $85 billion. The Air Force has estimated $62 billion.

Lockheed Martin Corp, Northrop and Boeing were all competing for the contract which is needed to perform the three-year technology maturation and risk reduction (TMRR) phase of Minuteman replacement.

A Lockheed representative said the company was “disappointed” and looked “forward to a debrief about the selection.”

Boeing’s Strategic Deterrence Systems Director, Frank McCall, said in a statement, “Since the first Minuteman launch in 1961, the U.S. Air Force has relied on our technologies for a safe, secure and reliable ICBM force.” Boeing provided the Minuteman III missile for the current ground-based nuclear ICBM system.

Northrop Grumman’s chief Wes Bush said in a statement, “We look forward to the opportunity to provide the nation with a modern strategic deterrent system that is secure, resilient and affordable.”

‘Moving forward’

Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson said, “We are moving forward with modernization of the ground-based leg of the nuclear triad.”

Modernization of the U.S. nuclear force was expected to cost more than $350 billion over the next decade. The United States plans to replace its aging systems, including bombs, nuclear bombers, missiles and submarines. Some analysts estimated the cost at $1 trillion over 30 years.

“Our missiles were built in the 1970s. Things just wear out, and it becomes more expensive to maintain them than to replace them,” Wilson said.

 
…

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says there is “zero chance” Congress will allow the country to default on its debts by voting to not increase the borrowing limit.

 

McConnell’s comments came Monday during a joint appearance in his home state of Kentucky with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. It was one of McConnell’s first public appearances since President Donald Trump publicly criticized him for failing to pass a repeal and replacement of former President Barack Obama’s health care law.

 

McConnell did not mention Trump in his remarks, and he did not take questions from reporters after the event. But in response to a question about where he gets his news, McConnell said he reads a variety of sources, including The New York Times.

 

“My view is most news is not fake,” McConnell said, which appeared to be a subtle rebuke of one of Trump’s favorite phrases. “I try not to fall in love with any particular source.”

 

The government has enough money to pay its bills until Sept. 29. After that, Congress would have to give permission for the government to borrow more money to meet its obligations, including Social Security and interest payments.

McConnell sought to calm a crowd of nervous business leaders by interjecting at the end of Mnuchin’s answer to a question about what would happen if lawmakers did not increase the borrowing limit.

 

“Let me just add, there is zero chance, no chance, we won’t raise the debt ceiling,” McConnell said. “America is not going to default.”

 

Addressing the country’s borrowing limit will be the most pressing issue when lawmakers return to Washington following their August recess. After that, Republicans will likely turn their attention to overhauling the nation’s tax code.

 

McConnell said Congress is unlikely to repeal a pair of Obama-era laws most hated by conservatives. While negotiations about health care are ongoing, McConnell said the path forward is “somewhat murky.” And he said it would be “challenging” to lift the restrictions placed on banks following the 2008 financial crisis, known as “Dodd-Frank.”

 

On tax reform, McConnell said the only thing lawmakers won’t consider eliminating are deductions on mortgage interest and charitable deductions.
…

Wisconsin Assembly Democratic Leader Peter Barca was branded as failing “on all accounts” by a fellow Democrat who was “incredibly frustrated and concerned” with his actions after Barca joined Republicans in voting for a $3 billion tax incentive package for Foxconn Technology Group.

 

Emails obtained by The Associated Press show that Democratic state Rep. Lisa Subeck of Madison spelled out her grievances to Barca on Friday, the day after the Assembly passed the incentive package backed by Republicans designed to attract Foxconn to build a massive display panel factory in the state.

Barca was one of three Democrats to vote for the measure Thursday, with 28 Democrats against. Barca, of Kenosha, and the other Democrats who voted for it represent southeast Wisconsin, near where Foxconn plans to build a factory that could employ thousands. Reps. Cory Mason of Racine and Tod Ohnstad of Kenosha joined Barca and 56 Republicans in voting for the bill; two Republicans joined all other Democrats in opposition.

 

Most Democrats were outspoken in their opposition to the measure, branding it as a corporate welfare giveaway that also puts Wisconsin’s environment in jeopardy because of requirements that would be waived to speed construction of the plant that could open as soon as 2020.

 

Barca tried to walk a line, criticizing the process of quickly acting on the bill and saying that more improvements could be made to protect taxpayers, Wisconsin businesses and the environment. But ultimately he said he supported the incentive package because of the backing it has from people in his district.

 

Subeck, in an email sent to all Assembly Democrats obtained by the AP, accused Barca of failing “on all accounts” to differentiate his views on Foxconn with that of the rest of Democrats who voted against the measure. She was particularly upset with Barca for holding an impromptu news conference in the Assembly parlor, right around the corner from his office, shortly after the evening vote Thursday.

 

“I am also concerned that the message you conveyed,” Subeck wrote. “It seems you were trying to justify your own vote rather than share the caucus perspective consistent with our agreed upon message.”

 

She said that Barca’s public comments “have not been consistent with the majority position of the caucus and have served counter to our interest.”

 

Barca wrote in response that he hadn’t planned to have a news conference but after the Thursday vote “we had one outlet in particular that was very aggressive and several others that wanted to talk.” Barca said his staff asked the reporters to move to the nearby parlor, where he and Assistant Majority Leader Dianne Hesselbein of Middleton and Rep. Mark Spreitzer of Beloit answered questions.

 

Barca did not address her concerns about what he actually said.

 

Barca spokeswoman Olivia Hwang said in an email that it was known Democrats had different opinions on the Foxconn bill and he supports efforts to oppose legislation they believe is wrong for their district or the state.

 

Barca does not plan to testify at a public hearing Tuesday in Racine on the bill, she said. Subeck raised concerns in her email about Barca testifying at the hearing scheduled for near where the plant may locate.
…

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro says new measures will be rolled out this week to combat economic speculation in the crisis-ridden country.

 

In an interview distributed via state-run media Sunday, Maduro said he was working with a “special commission” of the new, pro-government Constituent Assembly to clamp down on price gouging.

 

The commission is “going to announce a set of actions so that the maximum price of the products is respected,” Maduro said, without providing details. He also warned that “very severe justice” would “shake the society.”

​Venezuelans constantly complain of scarcity of food, medicine and personal hygiene products — and of outrageous prices amid soaring inflation.

The currency has shriveled in value, down from eight bolivars to the dollar in 2010 to more than 8,000 bolivars last month, as CNN Money recently pointed out. A single-serve bottle of water can cost about 1,200 bolivars.

 

Maduro previously declared a war on speculation in 2013, according to the Washington Office on Latin America. 

Carlos Larrazabal, president of Fedecamaras, a union representing Venezuela’s business sector, accused the socialist administration of trying to smother private enterprise.

 

“The government has a political agenda. Instead of correcting problems of supply and production,” the Constituent Assembly has “deepened” Venezuela’s crisis, Larrazabal said in an interview Sunday with Caracas television station Televen.

The assembly declared on Friday that it would wrest legislative power from the opposition-led National Assembly, a move denounced by many in Venezuela and beyond. The United States does not recognize the Constituent Assembly as valid.

 

Larrazabal said Venezuela is suffering “the consequences of bad economic policy, with an exchange mechanism that is not transparent, which does not allow raw materials” into the country. He also complained of price controls.

 

The archbishop of Caracas, Jorge Urosa Savino, recently reiterated his call to the Maduro government to ease Venezuelans’ suffering. He said the Roman Catholic Church has repeatedly urged the opposition “to defend the rights of the Venezuelan people.”

This article originated with VOA’s Spanish service.

 
…

China’s Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is interested in bidding for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), a company official said on Monday, confirming earlier reports that it is pursuing all or part of the owner of brands including Jeep and truckmaker Ram.

There has been speculation over Chinese interest in FCA since Automotive News reported last week that an unidentified “well-known Chinese automaker” made an offer earlier this month, triggering a jump in FCA’s Milan-listed shares.

“With respect to this case, we currently have an intention to acquire. We are interested in (FCA),” an official at Great Wall Motor’s press relations department, who declined to give his name, told Reuters by telephone. He gave no further details.

FCA Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne is seeking a partner or buyer for the world’s seventh-largest automaker to help it manage rising costs, comply with emissions regulations and develop technology for electric and self-driving cars.

An acquisition by Great Wall Motor would be audacious, and one of China’s highest profile manufacturing deals to date.

Earlier on Monday, two people familiar with the matter said Great Wall Motor had asked for a meeting with FCA, with the aim of making an offer for all or part of the Italian-American auto group. Also on Monday, citing an email from Great Wall Motor President Wang Fengying, Automotive News reported that Great Wall Motor had contacted FCA to express interest specifically in the Jeep brand.

The industry publication cited a Great Wall Motor spokesman confirming interest, but saying the Chinese automaker had not made a formal offer or met with FCA’s board.

“Our strategic goal is to become the world’s largest SUV maker,” Automotive News quoted the spokesman as saying, referring to sport utility vehicles. “Acquiring Jeep, a global SUV brand, would enable us to achieve our goal sooner and better (than on our own).”

FCA shares rose 3.9 percent to 11.12 euros in early Milan trading, outperforming a flat market. Great Wall Motor shares were up almost 3 percent in Shanghai.

FCA was not immediately available to comment on interest in the group. Earlier, officials declined to comment on the earlier Automotive News report focused on Jeep.

“Jeep is the most logical choice since (Great Wall) wants to be the largest SUV maker in the world,” said Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai-based consultancy Automotive Foresight.

Ram could be an option, but “the Jeep brand is recognized globally. I think Great Wall Motor is eyeing a global strategy, not just the United States,” Zhang added.

A move for FCA or one of its main brands, if successful, would allow Great Wall Motor to accelerate a planned push into the U.S. market, the two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

They said Great Wall Motor had been making plans for some time to enter the U.S. market, mainly by upgrading some of its key products and improving branding.

The company earlier this year officially launched a new “Wei” brand of potentially U.S.-market ready vehicles. Wei is the last name of Great Wall Motor founder and chairman Wei Jianjun.
…

The founder of a Chinese luxury online retailer has been extradited from Indonesia to face charges his company smuggled goods into China by having travelers pretend they were personal belongings, news reports said Monday.

Ji Wenhong of Xiu.com joins a growing number of Chinese fugitives who are being returned from abroad to face charges of corruption or financial misconduct.

Ji faces charges of smuggling goods worth a total of 438 million yuan ($65.5 million) into China while failing to report their true value, the news reports said, citing government officials.

The reports said Ji was accused of arranging for his company to buy designer clothing from Europe and the United States and have it shipped to Hong Kong. They said the company arranged for travelers to carry it to the mainland in their baggage, avoiding import duties.

Ji left China in May 2016 after being charged with smuggling, according to the China Daily newspaper. He was returned Saturday by Indonesian authorities.

In a statement, Xiu.com said some individuals at the company were under investigation but didn’t mention Ji. It said the company was operating normally.
…

The port of Tripoli in northern Lebanon wants the world to know it’s ready for business.

 

British safety managers are training local hires to operate heavy machinery and Chinese technicians are running diagnostics on two new container cranes that tower over the harbor, just 28 kilometers (18 miles) from the Syrian border.

 

After six years of civil war in Syria, markets across the Middle East are anticipating a mammoth reconstruction boom that could stimulate billions of dollars in economic activity. Lebanon, as Syria’s neighbor, is in prime position to capture a share of that windfall and revive its own sluggish economy.

 

Battles still rage in Syria’s north and east, and in pockets around the capital, Damascus, but the survival of President Bashar Assad’s government now appears beyond doubt.

 

That is introducing an element of stability into forecasts not seen since 2011, when the war broke out. The Damascus International Fair, a high-profile annual business event before the war, opened on Thursday evening for the first time since war broke out. The 10-day event kicked off with much fanfare, with participants from 43 countries and hundreds of attendees.

 

The World Bank estimates the cost to rebuild Syria at $200 billion.

 

For Lebanon, that could be just the stimulus it needs — the tiny Mediterranean country’s growth rate has hovered around 1.5 percent since 2013. And though the capital, Beirut, has grown visibly richer over the years, Tripoli and the impoverished north have lagged behind.

“Lebanon is in front of an opportunity that it needs to take very seriously,” said Raya al-Hassan, a former finance minister from northern Lebanon who now directs the Tripoli Special Economic Zone project that’s planned to be built adjacent to the port.

 

Ahmad Tamer, the port manager, estimates Syria’s reconstruction will create a demand for 30 million tons of cargo capacity annually.

 

Syria’s chief ports, Tartous and Latakia, also on the Mediterranean Sea, have a combined capacity of 10 to 15 million tons, he says. He wants Tripoli port to be ready to step in for a portion of the rest.

 

“We could provide up to 5 or 6 or 7 million tons,” he says.

 

The port is nearing the completion of the first phase of an expansion project first drawn up in 2009, then revised with an eye on Syria in 2016. Capital investment has reached around $400 million, according to the port manager.

 

On a map, Tamer pointed to a vacant quadrant where preparations are underway to build silos to hold grain destined for regional markets.

 

Syria’s conflict has decimated its food production, which included an average of 4.1 million tons of wheat annually before the war, according to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

 

In 2017, it managed to produce just 1.8 million tons.

 

Lebanon’s businessmen and politicians have always maintained close relations with Syrian counterparts. Syria is among Lebanon’s largest trade partners, and arguably its most reliable supplier of cheap labor. Lebanon, in exchange, is the banker to many of Syria’s enterprises and its wealthy elites.

 

These ties give Lebanon — and Tripoli in particular — an edge over competitors vying for the Syrian market.

 

The city’s location is also attracting foreign investment. Tripoli port signed a 25-year lease with the Emirati port operator Gulftainer in 2013, to manage and invest in the terminal.

 

“Our aim was to invest here in anticipation of Syria’s reconstruction,” said Ibrahim Hermes, the CEO of Lebanon’s subsidiary of Gulftainer.

 

Lebanon is now a fixture on itineraries of prospective investors. Hermes said he has seen delegations arriving from Europe, Asia and especially China, to scope out trade opportunities.

Before the war in Syria, goods coming through Lebanon’s ports used to transit as far afield as Iraq — saving ships from having to take the sea journey through the Suez Canal and around the Arabian Peninsula.

There is talk now that Tripoli could even be a terminal in China’s trillion-dollar new “Silk Road” project, carving a trade route from east Asia to Europe.

 

The Chinese firm Qingdao Haixi Heavy-Duty Machinery Co. sold the two 28-story container cranes now at the port. Safety signs inside the structures are posted in English and Mandarin.

 

“Tripoli can be a main transshipment hub for the eastern Mediterranean,” said Ira Hare, a sunburned British manager working for Gulftainer.

 

Lebanon has officially sought “dissociation” from the Syrian war so as not to fuel rancor among political parties split between those aligned with Damascus and those against it.

 

But there is also an air of inevitability about the re-normalization of relations, as Assad looks, for the short-term at least, to stay on in power.

 

Syria’s chief champion in Lebanon, the militant Hezbollah group, which is fighting alongside Assad’s forces, evinces little doubt.

 

“Our national interest is for the border between Lebanon and Syria to be open … because, tomorrow the routes will open to Iraq and to Jordan and we want to be able to transport Lebanese goods,” Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech this week.

 

A Hezbollah minister, Hussein Hajj Hussein, is one of two Cabinet ministers headed to Syria this week in a highly controversial visit, the first since the start of the war. Prime Minister Saad Hariri, an Assad critic, said the visit did not have government backing.

 

Damascus also knows it will be brought back in from the cold.

 

The Damascus International Fair, which promises to attract investors from Russia, China, Iran, and other places, is a telling indicator of the mood in the Syrian capital.

 

Europe and the United States are hesitant to finance the reconstruction projects so long as Assad, a pariah to the West, remains in power. But Russia, China, and Iran, as well as investors in Lebanon and the Middle East, are showing no signs of hesitation.

 

“As soon as there is a political agreement to end the war, we will be among the first countries to play a role in reconstruction,” said al-Hassan, the former finance minister.
…

The United States, Canada and Mexico wrapped up their first round of talks on Sunday to revamp the NAFTA trade pact, vowing to keep up a blistering pace of negotiations that some involved in the process said may be too fast to bridge deep differences.

In a joint statement issued at the end of five days of negotiations in Washington, the top trade officials from the three countries said Mexico would host the next round of talks from Sept. 1 to 5.

The talks will move to Canada later in September, then return to the United States in October, with additional rounds planned for later this year, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said.

“While a great deal of effort and negotiation will be required in the coming months, Canada, Mexico and the United States are committed to an accelerated and comprehensive negotiation process that will upgrade our agreement,” the officials said.

One person directly involved in the talks described the schedule as exceedingly fast, given that past trade deals took years to negotiate.

The three countries are trying to complete a full modernization of the 23-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement by early 2018, before Mexico’s national election campaign starts.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to scrap NAFTA without major changes to reduce U.S. goods trade deficits with its North American neighbors, describing it as a disaster that cost Americans hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs.

The joint statement said the three countries made “detailed conceptual presentations” across the scope of NAFTA issues and began work to negotiate some of the agreement’s texts, although it did not provide details on the topics.

Negotiating teams “agreed to provide additional text, comments or alternate proposals during the next two weeks,” ahead of the Mexico round.

Not All Cards on the Table

The source involved in the talks, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said there had been no drama as the three countries exchanged proposals.

Not all cards were put on the table, the source added, saying that during four four-hour sessions on rules of origin, the United States did not reveal its proposed targets for boosting North American and U.S. content for the automotive sector.

Lighthizer had made clear that strengthening rules of origin was one of his top priorities.

“The instructions that the groups received are clear: Work and work fast,” said a second person participating in the talks.

“This is not a negotiation like others we’ve been in. “We will not sacrifice the substance of a negotiation to meet a schedule,” added the source, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the talks. Trade experts have consistently said that the schedule is

far too ambitious, given the amount of work and differences on key issues.

“It’s hard to imagine how they can do something very substantive and do it very quickly. It’s almost as if you can have one or the other. You can have it quick, or you can have it meaningful,” said John Masswohl, director of government relations at the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association.
…

Add next week’s total eclipse of the sun to the list of worker distractions that cost U.S. companies hundreds of millions of dollars in lost productivity.

American employers will see at least $694 million in missing output for the roughly 20 minutes that outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimates workers will take out of their workday on Monday, Aug. 21 to stretch their legs, head outside the office and gaze at the nearly two-and-a-half minute eclipse.

And 20 minutes is a conservative estimate, said Andy Challenger, vice president at the Chicago-based firm. Many people may take even longer to set up their telescopes or special viewing glasses, or simply take off for the day.

“There’s very few people who are not going to walk outside when there’s a celestial wonder happening above their heads to go out and view it,” Challenger said, estimating that 87 million employees will be at work during the eclipse.

To get the overall figure of nearly $700 million, Challenger multiplied that by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest estimate for average hourly wages for all workers 16 and over.

Just as the Earth is a mere speck in the universe, however, Challenger said this is still a small sum.

“Compared to the amount of wages being paid to an employee over a course of a year, it is very small,” Challenger said. “It’s not going to show up in any type of macroeconomic data.”

It also pales when compared with the myriad other distractions in the modern workplace, such as the U.S. college basketball championship known as March Madness, the recent U.S. shopping phenomenon called Cyber Monday and the Monday after the Super Bowl.

During the opening week of March Madness, the firm estimated employers experienced $615 million per hour in lost productivity as people watched games and highlights, set up pool brackets and avidly tracked their standings rather than performed actual work.

The Monday after the Super Bowl, meanwhile, resulted in an estimated $290 million in lost output for every 10 minutes of the workday spent by workers discussing the game or watching game highlights and re-runs of their favorite Super Bowl commercials.

And Cyber Monday on the heels of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday at the start of the annual holiday shopping season resulted in $450 million in lost productivity for every 14 minutes spent shopping, not working.

Events like this are likely to have an outsized effect on smaller companies, Challenger said. When their workers are absent, small firms may not have sufficient coverage from coworkers, especially in the current tight labor market where it is hard to find skilled workers.

“When three or four people are missing from an office of 15, it’s a lot more disruptive,” Challenger said.

EVENT AMOUNT IN LOST PRODUCTIVITY

Total Eclipse:   $694 million for the 20 minutes it takes to go outside and watch the eclipse

Cyber Monday:   $450 million for every 14 minutes spent

shopping

March Madness:   $615 million for each hour spent on March Madness activities

Super Bowl:   $290 million for every 10 minutes lost

discussing the game

Fantasy Football:   $990 million for each hour of work time

spent on Fantasy Football

 

 
…

Brexit minister David Davis called on the European Union on Sunday to relax its position that the two sides must first make progress on a divorce settlement before moving on to discussing future relations.

After a slow start to negotiations to unravel more than 40 years of union, Britain is pressing for talks to move beyond the divorce to offer companies some assurance of what to expect after Britain leaves the EU in March 2019.

This week, the government will issue five new papers to outline proposals for future ties, including how to resolve any future disputes without “the direct jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ)”, Davis said.

“I firmly believe the early round of the negotiations have already demonstrated that many questions around our withdrawal are inextricably linked to our future relationship,” Davis wrote in the Sunday Times newspaper.

“Both sides need to move swiftly on to discussing our future partnership, and we want that to happen after the European Council in October,” he wrote, saying the clock was ticking.

EU officials have said there must be “sufficient progress” in the first stage of talks on the rights of expatriates, Britain’s border with EU member Ireland and a financial settlement before they can consider a future relationship.

That has frustrated British officials, who say that until there has been discussion of future ties, including a new customs arrangement and some way of resolving any future

disputes, they cannot solve the Irish border issue or financial settlement, two of the more difficult issues in the talks.

“There are financial obligations on both sides that will not be made void by our exit from the EU,” Davis wrote. “We are working to determine what these are – and interrogating the basis for the EU’s position, line by line, as taxpayers would expect us to do.”

He said the Brexit ministry would “advance our thinking further” with the new papers next week.

On the role of the ECJ, Davis said Britain’s proposals would be based on “precedents” which do not involve the “direct jurisdiction” of the court, which is hated by many pro-Brexit ministers in the governing Conservative Party.

EU officials say the court should guarantee the rights of EU citizens living or working in Britain after Brexit.

“Ultimately, the key question here is how we fairly consider and solve disputes for both sides,” Davis wrote.

 
…

Sometimes, it just doesn’t pay to manufacture in the United States. Labor and land are expensive. It is why most consumer products sold here come from overseas. But a multinational electric guitar manufacturer still produces one-third of its instruments near where it started decades ago. Arash Arabasadi names that tune from Maryland.
…

Hansaben Rasid knows what it is like to live without a water tap or a toilet of her own, constantly fearful of being evicted by city officials keen on tearing down illegal settlements like hers in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad.

The fear and lack of amenities are but a memory today, after she became a community leader in the Jadibanagar slum and pushed residents to apply for a program that gave them facilities and a guarantee of no evictions for 10 years.

“We didn’t even have a water tap here — we had to fetch water from the colony near by, and so much time went in just doing that. People kept falling sick because there was just one toilet,” she said.

“Now that we have individual water taps and toilets, we can focus on work and the children’s education. Everyone’s health has improved, and we don’t need to be afraid of getting evicted any day,” she said, seated outside her home.

Jadibanagar, with 108 homes, is one of more than 50 slums in Ahmedabad that have been upgraded by Parivartan — meaning “change” — a program that involves city officials, slum dwellers, a developer and a nonprofit organization.

Every household pays 2,000 rupees ($31) and in return, each home gets a water tap, a toilet, a sewage line and a stormwater drain. The slum gets street lights, paved lanes and regular garbage collection.

Each home also pays 80 rupees as an annual maintenance fee, and the city commits to not evicting residents for 10 years.

Negotiation skills

A crucial part of the program is the involvement of a woman leader who brings residents on board, deals with city officials and oversees the upgrade.

Nonprofit Mahila Housing Trust has trained women residents to be community leaders in a dozen cities in the country, including more than 60 in Ahmedabad.

“Women are responsible for the basic needs of the family, and most also work at home while the husband works outside, so the lack of a water tap or a toilet affects them more,” said Bharati Bhonsale, program manager at Mahila Housing Trust.

“Yet they traditionally have had little influence over policy decisions and local governance. We train them in civic education, build their communication and negotiation skills, and teach them to be leaders of the community,” she said.

About 65 million people live in India’s slums, according to official data, which activists say is a low estimate.

That number is rising quickly as tens of thousands of migrants leave their villages to seek better prospects in urban areas. Many end up in overcrowded slums, lacking even basic facilities and with no claim on the land or their property.

Yet slum dwellers have long opposed efforts to relocate them to distant suburbs, which limits their access to jobs. Instead, they favor upgrading of their slums or redevelopment.

Earlier this month, officials in the eastern state of Odisha said they would give land rights to slum dwellers in small towns and property rights to those in city settlements in a “historic” step that will benefit tens of thousands.

In Gujarat state, as Jadibanagar is on private land, it is not eligible for the city’s redevelopment plan.

“These homes are all illegal, but that doesn’t mean the people cannot live decently,” said Bhonsale.

“With redevelopment, there is demolition and a move, and that can take longer to convince people of, with the men usually making the decision. But with an upgrade, the women make the decision very quickly by themselves,” she said.

Bottom up

Elsewhere, in Delhi’s Savda Ghevra slum resettlement colony where about 30,000 people live, nonprofit Marg taught women residents to demand their legal right to water, sanitation and transport.

A group of women then filed Right to Information petitions, to improve their access to drinking water, buses and sanitation.

“The women bear the brunt of not having these amenities, and are therefore most motivated to do something about the situation,” said Anju Talukdar, director of Marg.

“The leaders are the ones who show up for meetings, are engaged and keen to learn how to use the law to improve their lives,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Contrary to perceptions that slums are run by petty criminals who resist efforts to redevelop or upgrade, women leaders in Jadibanagar and Savda Ghevra are actively engaged in bettering everyone’s lives.

Leaders often emerge from a bottom-up process, with reputations for getting things done — in particular, resisting evictions and securing basic services, according to research by Adam Auerbach at the American University and Tariq Thachil at Vanderbilt University.

“They are themselves ordinary residents, living with their families and facing the same vulnerabilities and risks as their neighbors; they, too, want paved roads, clean drinking water, proper sanitation and schools for their children,” they said.

Women leaders, while still a minority, are “rarely token figures” serving male heads of households, and are “just as active, assertive and locally authoritative as their male counterparts,” they said in an email.

Rasid in Jadibanagar, whose two sons and their families live in homes alongside hers, is certain her leadership helped residents improve their homes and their lives.

“Everyone wants security and nicer homes, and they are willing to pay. Someone just has to get it done,” she said.

“I am illiterate, I cannot read, but I know now how to talk to officials and the developer and tell them what we want, and make sure they deliver,” she said.
…

Like all North Korean adults, Song Un Pyol wears the faces of leader Kim Jong Un’s father and grandfather pinned neatly to her left lapel, above her heart. But on her right glitters a diamond-and-gold brooch. 

 

Song is what a success story in Kim Jong Un’s North Korea is supposed to look like. Just after Kim assumed power in late 2011, she started managing the supermarket floor at a state-run department store, which has freezers stocked full of pork and beef and rows of dairy, bakery and canned goods. She watches as customers fill their shopping carts, take their groceries directly to be scanned at the checkout counter and pay with cash or bank debit cards. 

 

Song is part of a paradigm shift within North Korea: Three generations into the Kim family’s ruling dynasty, markets have blossomed and a consumer culture is taking root. From 120 varieties of “May Day Stadium’’ brand ice cream to the widespread use of plastic to pay the bills, it’s a change visibly and irreversibly transforming her nation.

Market forces will out

While Kim has in recent weeks gained attention for his threat to fire missiles near Guam, his trademark two-track policy focuses on the development of both nuclear weapons and the economy. His acceptance of a more consumer-friendly economy is meant to foster economic growth and bring profits into the regime’s coffers. But like his pursuit of nuclear weapons, it’s a risky business. 

 

Facing even more international sanctions and a flood of Chinese imports that has generated a huge trade imbalance, there are good reasons to believe the North Korean economy is in a bubble that could soon burst. Prices for gasoline imports have soared more than 200 percent in less than six months, the AP has found. The price of rice is also believed to be sharply rising, although harder to independently confirm because of the difficulty in visiting local markets.

 

The new round of sanctions announced by the U.N. earlier this month will make it harder for the North to export its goods, cap the number of laborers it can send abroad — an important source of foreign currency for the regime — and limit the growth of joint ventures. North Korea will be hit particularly strongly by a Chinese ban on several key products, including coal, iron ore and seafood.

 

The problem, however, goes deeper than that. 

 

Market forces bring new forms of competition, uncertainty and change that are the antithesis of the centrally controlled, state-run economy of the North Korea of old. Markets are like a genie offering to grant the wish of wealth, but at the potential cost of political instability. 

 

Once the genie has been released from its bottle, it’s very hard to put it back in.

Guns and butter

 

The North Korean consumer landscape has evolved dramatically under Kim Jong Un. 

 

In keeping with his father, whose motto was “Military First,’’ Kim devotes nearly a quarter of North Korea’s estimated $30 billion GDP to defense spending, which is a far higher military burden than any other country in the world. But his new slogan of “Parallel Development’’ — guns and butter, so to speak — reflects an inescapable reality of his era.

 

In the 1990s, North Korea nearly imploded when the Soviet Union and its satellite empire collapsed. Reeling from floods, famine and an overwhelmed bureaucracy, it could no longer afford the public distribution system many North Koreans had depended on for their basic needs. This change sparked a wave of grassroots barter and trade, which has swollen into the burgeoning market economy today. 

Life in rural North Korea is still marked by far more hardship and scarcity than in its urban areas, and is hard even to compare to the showcase capital, Pyongyang. Yet there is, surprisingly, a bustling, almost booming, feeling in many parts of the country. 

Local control and entrepreneurs

Under a five-year plan for the economy Kim Jong Un announced last May, North Korean factories are putting a new priority on making more and better daily-life products. Managers, meanwhile, have more freedom to decide what to make, how much to pay their workers and how to forge profitable partnerships. 

 

Along the roads into virtually every city, street vendors, usually weather-beaten old women, sell fruits, vegetables and other food. In the cities, bazaar-style markets, shops and department stores are full of people. The shelves are lined with dozens of brands of domestically made cigarettes, sugary soft drinks and colorfully packaged chips or canned soups. 

 

In specialty shops, the latest “Pyongyang’‘ model smartphones, probably Chinese-made but rebranded to have a locally made appearance, go for $200. Apps to put on them, like the popular “Boy General’’ role-playing game, are $2 a pop. Pyongyang’s premier brewery, Taedonggang, just added an eighth kind of beer to its product line, which already includes beers dark and light, and even one that is chocolatey. 

 

Despite the ever-tightening sanctions, consumer products are still coming in from around the world. Buying a can of Pokka coffee from Japan is easy, and costs about 80 cents. Purchasing a Mercedes-Benz Viano might require some connections, but it is doable, for a $63,000 sticker price. 

 

Trade, yes; advertising, no

On the country’s bumpy highways, caravans of cram-packed long-distance buses and trucks hauling goods from city to city are common. More products made in Pyongyang are found in rural areas these days, and vice versa. Although the use of U.S. dollars or Chinese yuan remains widespread, more people are using prepaid cards or local bills at the checkout counter, suggesting greater buying power in general and more confidence in the stability of the national currency.

 

Some blatant manifestations of commercialism remain taboo. There are only three billboards in Pyongyang, a city of about 3 million. They advertise the local automaker, Pyonghwa Motors, and are more for the benefit of impressing foreign visitors than selling cars. There are no advertisements on television or in the newspapers. 

 

But stores are under instructions to be more consumer-friendly.

 

“At first, we opened the store from 10 in the morning to 6 in the evening,’’ said Song. “But in 2015, our dear respected Marshal Kim Jong Un made sure that we serve from 10 in the morning to 8 in the evening so one can use late night at any given time, as many working people often used the shop during the evening after work.’’

Stores now commonly offer buy-two-get-one-free type sales and discounts on products the management wants to move off the shelves. Posters for new medicines or sports drinks can be seen inside shops and customers can sign up for “loyalty cards’’ to get points toward ever more discounts.

 

“In today’s North Korea there is a growing competition between the domestic companies themselves as they try to attract customers and establish reputable brands,’’ said Michael Spavor, a Canadian entrepreneur who visits the North frequently and is one of the only Westerners to have ever met Kim Jong Un. 

 

Spavor calls it a “brilliant strategy.’’ 

 

But the emphasis on locally produced consumer goods isn’t just because Kim wants to make good on his promise to give his people a higher standard of living. 

 

It’s also an attempt to counter the gravitational pull of China.

The power of China

 

As sanctions advocates rightly point out, cutting off trade with China would be catastrophic for Pyongyang. But North Korean leaders, including Kim Jong Un, have shown a great deal of concern over the flip side of that coin: What might happen to their country if trade continues, or grows larger. 

 

The expansion of trade increases Chinese leverage on the ground and feeds market forces that are hard for Pyongyang to keep under control. China accounts for nearly all of North Korea’s trade and its fuel. While the North has minimal dealings with the rest of the world, it did $2 billion worth of business with China in the first five months of this year alone.

 

During Kim Jong Un’s first three years in power, North Korea’s exports to China of coal, garments, minerals and seafood were all growing. But what North Korea was able to sell to China fell far short of what it needed to buy, particularly because of its need for oil and fuel products. 

 

That imbalance has widened dramatically this year as China cut back on buying from the North. The new U.N. sanctions will further squeeze the North’s main sources of export income.

​Signs of trouble

 

Georgetown University economist William Brown estimates the North is suffering an outflow of $200 million in foreign exchange every month. This is crucial because the more Pyongyang owes Beijing, the less it has to spend on other things. But it still needs essential commodities like food and fuel, which can deepen the problems of both shortages and inflation.

 

Right around April, according to data compiled by the AP, gasoline prices started to soar. Many stations either closed their gates or restricted the amount they would sell each customer. As of late July, the price surge had yet to abate.

 

Few North Koreans have their own cars. But gasoline, virtually all of which comes from China, fuels the transportation of goods and people in the new economy. 

 

Brown said the price of rice was also up nearly 20 percent in July from May and was significantly higher than a year ago. There could be a trickle-down effect, since tractors and even the fertilizer used to grow rice require petroleum products. Fears of a poor harvest in the fall could send prices shooting up.

 

“This may represent the greatest near-term threat to the regime stability,’’ Brown said.

 

North Korea has proven it is nothing if not resilient, often finding a way out of its economic problems. Even so, the longer-term changes to society won’t be easy to address.

 

The goods and trading opportunities spilling across the Chinese border are also spurring the growth of profitable enterprises, which has substantial financial benefits for well-connected individuals and, at least initially, the regime’s elite. For this tier of North Korean society — and for farmers who can profit from their excess produce — the new economy has opened up a way to get money from sometimes under-the-table businesses.

 

Loyalty to the regime and party ties remain an important means of social advancement. But, in Kim Jong Un’s North Korea these days, so is a good sense for how to run a proper side hustle to augment what are often paltry official paychecks.

 

However, the same opportunities have widened the gap between the rich by North Korean standards and the poor. The haves benefit disproportionately from the new economy, while a far larger number of have-nots live mostly outside the Pyongyang bubble of affluence. Ambiguity over what officials will overlook and what they will strictly enforce has also created a gray area that opens the door to corruption and bribery. 

 

Double-edged sword

 

The regime is not blind to what’s happening. It knows the new consumerism can be a destabilizing force. But it also knows it needs the markets.

 

North Korean officials insist markets are a stopgap coping measure for the economy that will be overcome. Kang Chol Min, a researcher with the Economics Institute of the Academy of Social Science, said the regime is trying to produce more, and better, goods to woo consumers away from the markets and back to state-run businesses. 

 

“The number of people relying on the state-run commercial networks is increasing,’’ he said in an interview with AP Television News. 

 

But many outside experts believe state enterprises and farms are too inefficient to provide enough goods and services for the whole nation without the help of markets and private activities. 

 

If they are right, it’s hard to imagine North Korea’s economic future will lie in Kang’s vow to produce more goods locally. Nor is it likely to be model worker Song, the state-sanctioned success story.

 

It might, however, be a Miniso store. 

 

Miniso is decidedly not trying to appeal to the shoppers by filling its shelves with products made in North Korea. It’s an international brand name — found in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney — selling bargain-priced goods such as backpacks and consumer electronics. Its Pyongyang store just opened in April, near two of the capital’s most prestigious universities in a newly built high-rise district appropriately called Ryomyong Gori, the “Avenue of Dawn.’’ 

 

It’s the trendiest shop in town.

 

And it’s a joint venture. With China.
…