YCLOAK

The United States has formally told the World Trade Organization (WTO) that it opposes granting China market economy status, a position that if upheld would allow Washington to maintain high anti-dumping duties on Chinese goods.

The statement of opposition, made public on Thursday, was submitted as a third-party brief in support of the European Union in a dispute with China that could have major repercussions for the trade body’s future.

China is fighting the EU for recognition as a market economy, a designation that would lead to dramatically lower anti-dumping duties on Chinese goods by prohibiting the use of third-country price comparisons.

The U.S. and EU argue that the state’s pervasive role in the Chinese economy, including rampant granting of subsidies, mean that domestic prices are deeply distorted and not market-determined.

A victory for China before the WTO would weaken many countries’ trade defenses against a flood of cheap Chinese goods, putting the viability of more western industries at risk.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told Congress in June that the case was “the most serious litigation we have at the WTO right now” and a decision in China’s favor “would be cataclysmic for the WTO.”

Lighthizer has repeatedly expressed frustration with the WTO’s dispute settlement body and has called for major changes at the organization.

The USTR brief, which follows a Commerce Department finding in October that China fails the tests for a market economy, argues that China should not automatically be granted market economy by virtue of the expiration of its 2001 accession protocol last year.

“The evidence is overwhelming that WTO members have not surrendered their longstanding rights … to reject prices or costs that are not determined under market economy conditions in determining price comparability for purposes of anti-dumping comparisons,” the brief concludes.

The move comes as trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are increasing as the Trump administration prepares several possible major trade actions, including broad tariffs or quotas on steel and aluminum and an investigation into Chinese intellectual property misappropriation.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a regular news briefing on Friday that some countries were trying to “skirt their responsibility” under WTO rules.

“We again urge relevant countries to strictly honor their commitment to international principles and laws, and fulfill their agreed upon international pacts,” Geng said.

The Commerce Department on Tuesday launched the first government-initiated anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations in decades on Chinese aluminum sheet imports.

U.S. officials say that 16 years of WTO membership has failed to end China’s market-distorting state practices.

“We are concerned that China’s economic liberalization seems to have slowed or reversed, with the role of the state increasing” David Malpass, U.S. Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, told an event in New York on Thursday.

“State-owned enterprises have not faced hard budget constraints and China’s industrial policy has become more and more problematic for foreign firms. Huge exports credits are flowing in non-economic ways that distort markets,” Malpass said.

The brief submitted to the WTO also argues that China should be treated the same way as communist eastern European countries, including Poland, Romania and Hungary were when they joined the WTO’s predecessor organization, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

A senior U.S. official said those countries eventually earned market economy status as evidence of state subsidies and state distortions waned. He added that going forward, WTO members wishing to use third-country price comparisons against Chinese imports would need to keep presenting evidence of economic distortions.

 
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Senate Republicans delayed a final vote on an overhaul of the U.S. tax code late Thursday amid furious, behind-the-scenes efforts to fine-tune the legislation to satisfy a small group of fiscal hawks whose support is needed to pass one of President Donald Trump’s core campaign promises.

“Senators will continue to debate the bill tonight,” Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said, adding that further votes pertaining to the tax bill would occur later Friday.

Only hours earlier, Republicans appeared poised to pass a massive restructuring of federal taxes and deal a stinging defeat to Democrats. Several wavering Republicans had signaled support for the bill, including John McCain of Arizona.

Late in the day, however, three Republicans, led by Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, clung to a demand that proposed tax cuts would be pared back if future U.S. economic performance did not meet projections.

Republicans have a two-seat Senate majority. Three defections from their ranks would torpedo the bill, given unified Democratic opposition.

With time needed to rewrite portions of the bill to satisfy the Corker contingent, Republican leaders opted to postpone further votes.

Details of plan

The underlying proposal would permanently cut corporate taxes, temporarily cut taxes on wages and salaries, boost some tax deductions Americans can claim while eliminating others, and increase the U.S. national debt, which currently is more than $20 trillion.

The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation issued a report Thursday estimating the Republican plan would sap federal coffers by more than $1 trillion over a decade, even taking into account more than $400 billion in new revenue generated by a projected increase in economic activity.

“The [JCT] score ends the fantasy about magical growth, about unicorns and growth fairies showing that tax cuts pay for themselves,” Democratic Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon said.

Republicans insisted a vibrant economy was necessary for fiscal health, and that tax cuts would promote growth.

“If this legislation is signed into law, we are going to have a smaller deficit in future years than we are on the path to have now,” Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania said. “The right incentives lead to stronger growth.”

Democrats shot back that the federal deficit and income inequality both expanded after every tax cut enacted in recent decades.

“Trickle-down economics did not work under Ronald Reagan, did not work under George W. Bush,” independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who caucuses with Democrats, said. “It is a fraudulent theory.”

“All we are doing is shifting the tax to our kids,” Maine Senator Angus King, another independent who also caucuses with Democrats, said. “If 5-year-olds knew what we were doing and could vote, none of us would have a job.”

Corporate tax rate

The tax plan would cut corporate taxes from a maximum rate of 35 percent to 20 percent.

“Other countries have learned how to use their tax codes to entice U.S. businesses overseas, businesses around the globe, to their country — to move away from the United States to their countries’ more competitive tax code,” Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado said. “That disparity between the U.S. tax code and foreign tax rates has literally chased jobs and wages out of this country.”

Some Democrats agreed that U.S. corporate taxes should be lowered, but insisted the Republican plan goes too far and would eventually trigger painful cuts to federal programs that benefit the poor and elderly in the future.

Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey accused Republicans of mounting a “con game” in which they tout tax breaks but gloss over “their brutal, vicious cuts to programs for the poorest, the sickest, the elderly, neediest in our country.”

In a sign that Republicans were confident of passing the bill, House Speaker Paul Ryan laid the groundwork for creating a bicameral committee to reconcile differences between the Senate’s legislation and a House version that was approved several weeks ago.

A unified tax plan would have to pass both chambers before it could go to the White House for Trump’s signature.
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Venezuela’s Avior Airlines has been banned from European Union skies after a commission determined it no longer meets international safety standards, another blow to troubled nation’s already beleaguered flight industry.

The European Commission announced Thursday that Avior had been added to a list of international airlines prohibited from flying within the union because the European Aviation Safety Agency detected “unaddressed safety deficiencies.”

No further details were provided.

The Venezuelan airline is one of a handful still offering international flight destinations as major carriers like United and Delta halt operations in the crisis-ridden nation. Air carriers have cited financial and safety concerns as reasons for suspending service.

An Avior flight made an emergency landing in Ecuador earlier this month after passengers described seeing fire and smelling smoke. Videos posted on social media showed nervous passengers wearing deployed oxygen masks.

“We thought it was our final moments,” one passenger said.

Avior operates flights within Venezuela, throughout Latin America and to Miami, Florida, and lists an office location in Madrid on its website.

The airline is certified under U.S. federal aviation regulations and Venezuela remains in good standing with the International Aviation Safety Assessment, the Federal Aviation Administration’s program to determine whether foreign countries provide sufficient safety and oversight of airlines that fly to the U.S.

Venezuela has grown increasingly isolated as an expanding list of airlines cancel service amid low customer demand and financial distress. The head of the International Air Transport Association has said that Venezuela owes $3.8 billion to several international airlines, a debt it is unexpected to repay anytime soon. The government defaulted on billions of dollars’ worth of bonds earlier this month.

The last United Airlines flight departed Caracas in late June, with crewmembers waving a Venezuelan flag out of the pilot’s window. American Airlines, Air France and Iberia are among the large international carriers that still offer service to the South American nation.
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The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has finally ended

In all, 17 named storms swept across the Atlantic this year and 10 rose to hurricane status. But the season will be remembered for the deadly trio — Harvey, Irma and Maria — that brought death and destruction to Caribbean nations and the southern U.S.

This was the first year on record in which the continental United States was hit by two Category 4 hurricanes, Harvey and Irma.

Harvey made landfall in South Texas on August 25, leading to days of downpours that dumped an unprecedented 152 centimeters (60 inches) of rain. It was the greatest rainfall amount recorded from a single storm in U.S. history.

Harvey also damaged or destroyed about 200,000 homes as the storm system flooded much of Houston and smaller coastal communities.

Then, on September 11 came Irma — the strongest storm on record in the Atlantic, outside the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. With maximum winds of nearly 300 kilometers an hour, Irma destroyed the Caribbean island of Barbuda, shredded vast sections of the Virgin Islands and knocked out power in much of Florida.

September also saw the arrival of Hurricanes Jose, Katia and Lee, before Category 4 Hurricane Maria slammed into Puerto Rico on September 20.

It was the U.S. territory’s strongest hurricane landfall since 1928. With sustained winds of 250 kilometers per hour, Maria knocked out power across the island, causing the biggest blackout in U.S. history. The island is still struggling to restore power as millions remain without electricity two months later.

Bloomberg News reports the 2017 hurricane season was the most expensive on record, with an estimated $202.6 billion in damage. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expected to release the official damage tally early next year.
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Germany, Europe’s most robust economy, said Thursday that its unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent in November, the lowest figure since West and East Germany were unified in 1990.

Even as Chancellor Angela Merkel and other Berlin politicians struggle to form a coalition government, the German economy remains strong, with a months-long dip in the country’s jobless rate and solid demand for German products from other countries.

The German report came as Eurostat, the statistics agency for the European Union, said the jobless rate for the 19-nation eurozone bloc that uses the euro currency dropped to 8.8 percent in October. It was the lowest figure since January 2009, when Europe and countries across the world were in the midst of a steep recession.

The German and European jobless rates trail those in the United States, the world’s largest economy, where unemployment has dropped to 4.1 percent, a 17-year low. But the U.S. and European numbers point to steady improvement that had been slow to emerge after the devastating job losses and high unemployment seven to nine years ago.

Eurostat said more than 14 million people remained out of work, but that was 1.5 million fewer than a year ago. In Spain, the jobless rate has been cut from about 25 percent to 16.7 percent.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that while wages still are not increasing much, they could rise in the coming months as the continent’s economy continues to rebound.

Patrick Chovanex, chief strategist at New York-based Silvercrest Asset Management, told VOA the U.S. is in the eighth year of its recovery.

“It’s a recovery that has kind of waxed and waned,” he said. “One of the things that has been happening over the past couple years is that different parts of the economy were waxing and waning out of sequence with one another. So housing would be strong while manufacturing would be weak, and then vice versa. Every so often they happen to coincide.

“Right now we’re seeing a pattern of several elements of the economy being strong at once. Hopefully, that will continue.”
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OPEC agreed on Thursday to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018 as it tries to finish clearing a global glut of crude while signalling it could exit the deal earlier if the market overheats.

Non-OPEC Russia, which this year reduced production significantly with OPEC for the first time, has been pushing for a clear message on how to exit the cuts so the market doesn’t flip into a deficit too soon, prices don’t rally too fast and rival U.S. shale firms don’t boost output further.

The producers’ current deal, under which they are cutting supply by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in an effort to boost oil prices, expires in March.

Two OPEC delegates told Reuters the group had agreed to extend the cuts by nine months until the end of 2018, as largely anticipated by the market.

OPEC also decided to cap the output of Nigeria at around 1.8 million bpd but had yet to agree a cap for Libya. Both countries have been previously exempt from cuts due to unrest and lower-than-normal production.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has yet to meet with non-OPEC producers led by Russia, with the meeting scheduled to begin after 1500 GMT.

Before the earlier, OPEC-only meeting started at the group’s headquarters in Vienna on Thursday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said it was premature to talk about exiting the cuts at least for a couple of quarters and added that the group would examine progress at its next meeting in June.

“When we get to an exit, we are going to do it very gradually… to make sure we don’t shock the market,” he said.

The Iraqi, Iranian and Angolan oil ministers also said a review of the deal was possible in June in case the market became too tight.

International benchmark Brent crude rose more than 1 percent on Thursday to trade near $64 per barrel.

Capping Nigeria, Libya

With oil prices rising above $60, Russia has expressed concerns that such an extension could prompt a spike in crude production in the United States, which is not participating in the deal.

Russia needs much lower oil prices to balance its budget than OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia, which is preparing a stock market listing for national energy champion Aramco next year and would hence benefit from pricier crude.

“Prices will be well supported in December with a large global stock draw. The market could surprise to the upside with even $70 per barrel for Brent not out of the question if there is an unexpected interruption in supply,” said Gary Ross, a veteran OPEC watcher and founder of Pira consultancy.

The production cuts have been in place since the start of 2017 and helped halve an excess of global oil stocks although those remain at 140 million barrels above the five-year average, according to OPEC.

Russia has signaled it wants to understand better how producers will exit from the cuts as it needs to provide guidance to its private and state energy companies.

“It is important… to work out a strategy which we will follow from April 2018,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday.
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The International Labor Organization says a majority of the world’s population, four billion people, have no social protection, leaving them mired in an endless cycle of poverty. 

The report says 45 percent of the global population is covered by at least one social benefit.  But that leaves 55 percent without any social protection, a situation ILO Director General Guy Ryder calls unacceptable.

“That means that they do not receive any child benefit, any maternity benefit, any unemployment protection, any disability benefit, any old age pension and that they do not actively contribute to social security systems,” Ryder said.

The consequences are severe and tangible.  The report finds the lack of social protection leaves people vulnerable to illness, poverty, inequality and social exclusion.  The ILO regards the situation as a significant obstacle to economic growth and social development.

Ryder tells VOA governments would benefit from considering social protection as an investment in their populations.

“Social protection is a human right and we should be pursuing it because it is a human right,” Ryder said. “But, also, I think there is a great deal of evidence to demonstrate that when social protection systems are in place and where they function well and one can think of the whole cycle of protection from kids right through to old age, then you reap economic benefits from it.” 

The report says the lack of social protection is most acute in Africa, Asia, and the Arab States.  It recommends those regions increase their public expenditure to at least guarantee basic social security coverage to all their people.
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The buoyant economic recovery across the 19-country eurozone has pushed unemployment down to its lowest level in nearly nine years but has yet to translate to a sustained pick-up in wages and prices, official figures indicated Thursday.

 

Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency, said the jobless rate fell to 8.8 percent in October, from 8.9 percent the previous month. That’s the lowest since January 2009, when the region, like the world economy, was reeling from the global financial crisis and the ensuing deep recession.

 

Across the region, there were 14.34 million people out of work, down 1.5 million in the past year. That’s clear evidence that the economic recovery, which has gathered momentum during 2017, has invigorated the jobs market, especially in some of those countries that saw the biggest spikes in unemployment after the financial crisis. That’s especially true in Spain, which for much of the past few years lumbered under the weight of an unemployment rate of around 25 percent. Now, following strong growth, unemployment has fallen to 16.7 percent.

 

Though the eurozone is growing strongly, inflation is still a way short of the European Central Bank’s goal of just below 2 percent, a level it considers healthiest for the economy.

 

Eurostat said its headline measure of consumer price inflation rose to 1.5 percent in November, largely because of higher energy prices. While up from October’s 1.4 percent, it was below expectations in markets for a rise to 1.6 percent and indicates that underlying inflation pressures largely related to wages remain modest despite falling unemployment. The core rate of inflation, which strips out volatile items like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, was stuck at 0.9 percent in November – again below expectations of a rise to 1 percent.

 

ECB President Mario Draghi has said there are a number of reasons why wages are not rising strongly, including the possibility that after years of low interest rates and weak inflation, wage negotiators may have been focused more on keeping jobs than on securing higher pay. He said these kinds of factors are likely to be “transitory” and that the recent “remarkable” increases in employment should start to show in a rise in nominal wages. With spare capacity in the economy diminishing, the hope is that a pick-up in wages that can support consumer demand and give inflation a boost.

Over the past few years, the ECB has enacted a series of stimulus measures, including cutting its main interest rate to zero, in the hope of getting inflation back up to target. Recently it eased up on its bond-buying stimulus program, which aims to keep market interest rates low, amid mounting evidence of economic growth.

 

Economists are not predicting any further changes soon, with Thursday’s figures adding to that perception.

 

“Today’s figures are unlikely to prompt the bank to accelerate the process of monetary normalization,” said Pablo Shah, an economist at the Center for Economics and Business Research.
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Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said Wednesday that Trump administration demands for a U.S.-specific automotive content requirement in NAFTA were “not viable,” and he declined to specify when Mexico would formally respond.

At a news conference following a series of meetings with senior U.S. trade officials and lawmakers in Washington, Guajardo said that Mexico was still trying to understand the U.S. proposals that would require 50 percent of vehicles’ value content to be produced in the United States as part of updated North American Free Trade Agreement rules.

“I was clear that the domestic content [requirement] is something that is not viable at this point,” Guajardo said.

He added that Mexico would eventually make a counterproposal on automotive rules of origin, but declined to specify the timing of that response.

His visit was partly aimed at bolstering support in Congress for NAFTA at a time when tax legislation is consuming lawmakers’ attention and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is growing frustrated with the slow pace of NAFTA talks.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to scrap the trade agreement if it cannot be renegotiated to shrink U.S. trade deficits and return manufacturing jobs to the United States.

House Speaker Paul Ryan said after meeting with Guajardo earlier  Wednesday that congressional Republicans “are determined” to strengthen trade ties with Mexico.

“I expect the administration will continue to work with us to modernize NAFTA and bolster our robust relationship with such an important ally,” Ryan said in a statement.

US waiting on counterproposals

After the last NAFTA negotiating round ended last week, Lighthizer complained that Mexico and Canada had not offered counterproposals to its demands on autos and other major areas aimed at “rebalancing” the trade pact.

The United States also is seeking to lift the regional value content requirement for NAFTA-produced cars and trucks to 85 percent from 62.5 percent. Guajardo said that once Mexico has a firm understanding of the U.S. autos proposal, it can work with its own stakeholders to see what adjustments could be made to regional content for autos.

But he said that the U.S. demand to move to 85 percent regional content within three years was “entirely unrealistic.”

Guajardo said he discussed with Lighthizer on Tuesday how to move the talks toward consideration of potential “rebalancing” outcomes. But first, he said, Mexico needed to be clear with its American and Canadian counterparts about unacceptable proposals and its priorities for keeping the pact beneficial to all parties.

“We have to start a process of looking at what’s next after we complete the modernization effort,” he added.

On dispute settlement, Guajardo said that Mexico would be willing to consider some adjustments to the investor-state dispute settlement system, after the United States proposed making the use of such arbitration panels optional.

“We can explore the opt-in, as long as we can define our own opt-in,” Guajardo said of the dispute settlement proposal, adding that otherwise, Mexico is “not interested.”

At a more limited round of NAFTA talks in mid-December in Washington, Guajardo said it would be important to agree on key issues in order to close some NAFTA chapters, such as those on food safety, telecommunications, regulatory practices and digital commerce.
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Opposition has grown among Americans to a Republican tax plan before the U.S. Congress, with 49 percent of people who were aware of the measure saying they opposed it, up from 41 percent in October, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

Congressional Republicans are trying to rush their tax legislation to a vote on the Senate floor before the end of the week. President Donald Trump strongly backs the bill and wants to sign it into law before the end of the year.

In addition to the 49 percent who said they opposed the Republican tax bill, 29 percent said they supported it and 22 percent said they “don’t know,” according to the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll of 1,257 adults conducted from Thursday to Monday.

When asked “who stands to benefit most” from the plan, more than half of all American adults surveyed selected either the wealthy or large U.S. corporations. Fourteen percent chose “all Americans,” 6 percent picked the middle class and 2 percent chose lower-income Americans.

The tax bill being crafted in the Senate would slash the corporate tax rate, eliminate some taxes paid only by rich Americans and offer a mixed bag or temporary tax cuts for other individuals and families.

As congressional discussion on the bill has unfolded, public opposition to it has risen, on average, following Trump’s unveiling of a nine-page “framework” on September 27 that started the debate in earnest, Reuters/Ipsos polling showed.

On October 24, for example, among adults who said they had heard of the “tax reform plan recently proposed by congressional Republicans,” 41 percent said they opposed it, while 31 percent said they “don’t know” and just 28 percent said they supported it.

Trump and his fellow Republicans are determined to make a tax code overhaul their first major legislative win since taking control of the White House and Congress in January.

The House of Representatives on November 16 approved its own tax bill. The Senate is expected to decide on Wednesday whether to begin debating its proposal, as the measure moves toward a decisive floor vote later this week.

The two chambers would need to reconcile differences between their plans before legislation could be sent to the White House for Trump’s signature.

In the November 23-27 poll, 59 percent of Republicans supported the tax bill, 26 percent said they did not know and 15 percent opposed it. Among Democrats, 82 percent opposed it, 11 percent said they did not know and 8 percent supported it.

 
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Colombia’s palm oil industry and big businesses have pledged to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains as the country battles to reverse the growing destruction of its tropical rainforests.

The commitment signed this week makes Colombia the first country in the world to launch its own chapter of the Tropical Forest Alliance 2020, a global effort by governments, companies and nongovernmental organizations.

The TFA 2020 Colombia Alliance aims to help businesses shift to deforestation-free supply chains by sharing best practices, monitoring forest clearance and training small farmers in sustainable agricultural methods.

It also aims to promote development of certified sustainable products from beef to palm oil for consumers to buy in local supermarkets.

Rainforests in Colombia, Latin America’s largest palm oil producer, are coming under increasing pressure, and deforestation is rampant.

Deforestation in the country’s Amazon region rose 23 percent and across the country rose by 44 percent from 2015 to 2016, said Vidar Helgesen, Norway’s environment minister.

Norway is one of four main donor countries, along with the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands, backing the TFA 2020, an initiative hosted by the World Economic Forum.

“These numbers have been higher than what we expected and that’s why it is important to intensify efforts,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Getting the private sector to commit to deforestation-free supply chains is a “critical part of the puzzle” to protect forests, he said.

First such cooperation

“This is the first time in Colombia we see the government and the private sector joining forces like this,” he said.

“My hope and belief is that this partnership will find ways of ensuring that it is not only an agreement on paper but something that will happen in practical terms.”

Protecting forests helps cut carbon emissions, a key driver of climate change. When forests are degraded or destroyed, the carbon stored in the trees is released into the atmosphere.

Colombia is home to a swath of rainforest roughly the size of Germany and England combined and has declared a goal of zero net deforestation by 2020 and halting the loss of all natural forest by 2030.

Its rainforests have been increasingly threatened since a 2016 peace deal to end its decades-long civil war opened up former conflict areas to business, agriculture and development, Helgesen said.

Trees also are being cleared for cattle ranching, illegal mining and growing coca — the raw ingredient for cocaine.

Signing up with the Alliance are about 25 palm oil producers and buyers, Colombia’s Federation of Oil Palm Growers and Alqueria S.A., its third-largest dairy company. Also signing up are retail giant Grupo Exito and international companies operating in Colombia such as consumer goods company Unilever.

“The launch of the TFA 2020 Colombia Alliance is important as a strengthening mechanism for joint action in Colombia to reach our deforestation goals,” said Mariana Villamizar, a spokeswoman for Grupo Exito.

Producers and buyers from the beef, dairy and timber sectors are expected to join the partnership soon.

Each company will set targets to achieve zero deforestation across their often complex supply chains, and the government and NGOs will help monitor deforestation.
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The number of international visitors to the United States through June fell sharply from last year, according to government data released Wednesday.

And the number of business travelers fell by much more than the drop in tourists, according to the monthly report from the Commerce Departments National Travel and Tourism Office.

Total foreign visitors fell four percent compared to the first six months of last year, with travelers from Mexico down more than nine percent and from Britain down six percent, but visits from Canada up nearly five percent.

Excluding Canada and Mexico, overseas visitors fell nearly six percent, but business travel dropped nearly nine percent compared to a 5.6 percent decline in tourists.

President Donald Trump in his first year in office repeatedly promised to build a wall on the border with Mexico, and has ordered bans on visitors from several Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East and Africa.

Visits from the Middle East plunged 30 percent in the first half of the year, and from Africa dropped 27 percent. There also were double-digit declines in visitors from South and Central America, the Caribbean and Eastern Europe.

Among the top 20 countries with the most visitors, Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil and India saw travelers fall well over 10 percent.

In contrast, arrivals from South Korea jumped 18 percent, while Ireland saw a 4.7 percent increase, Italy was up 4.2 percent, Spain 3.5 percent and France 1.5 percent, according to the monthly data.
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Turkey’s deteriorating finances are hurting the country’s banks whose reliance on dollar funding makes them vulnerable to the worst-case scenario: a sudden halt or reversal of foreign investment flows.

International investors are growing nervous about Turkey for a variety of reasons. But U.S. legal action against a number of Turkish individuals over alleged Iran sanctions busting – and the risk that some of the country’s banks might be sucked into the case – lies at the heart of the latest concerns.

Since Turkey’s financial crisis in 2000, its banks have earned a reputation as being among the best-run in emerging markets, holding capital reserves far above those required by global rules.

They are still borrowing funds on international markets for lending on to domestic clients, and executives say they do not expect any significant future difficulties.

Nevertheless, borrowing costs are rising for the banks, which have accumulated dollar debt piles equal to a third of Turkey’s total foreign debt. Bank shares are down 20 percent since mid-August, outstripping a 5 percent fall on the broader Istanbul index in this period.

The lira has fallen more than 10 percent against the dollar and euro in the past three months alone, clocking losses of over 50 percent since the end of 2012 .

Several factors are at work, including fears that Turkey’s credit rating might be downgraded, government resistance to higher interest rates despite double-digit inflation, and tensions between Ankara and NATO ally Washington.

Now a Turkish-Iranian gold trader on trial in New York has pleaded guilty to conspiring to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran and will testify against a Turkish bank official charged with arranging illegal transactions involving American lenders.

Any possibility that Turkish banks themselves might become involved, landing the kind of huge fines slapped on others for sanctions-busting, would have severe consequences for the lenders and the wider economy.

“If [fines] do materialize, I would assume that all lending would stop until it becomes clear if institutions around the world can lend to Turkish banks or not,” said Alaa Bushehri, an emerging debt portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

Turkey’s bank regulator and government officials have denied reports in Haberturk newspaper that six unnamed Turkish banks could face fines worth billions of dollars.

But Turkish banks’ dollar bonds generally reflect investors’ nervousness, Bushehri said. On average, yields are 100 basis points above sovereign debt, whereas most big Turkish non-bank firms have lower funding costs than the government, she noted.

Turkish banks also trade with higher yields than similarly-or worse-rated banks in Russia, an emerging market peer which is directly subject to Western sanctions.

Adverse implications

U.S. prosecutors have charged nine people in the case, including the deputy general manager of Turkey’s Halkbank, who is also on trial in New York. He denies all charges.

A former Turkish economy minister is among the defendants, although he is not currently on trial and likewise denies all charges. Ankara says the case is politically motivated, while Halkbank has said all of its transactions have fully complied with national and international regulations.

“If the trial were to end with fines on Turkish lenders, economic implications for Turkey could be highly adverse,” TD Securities said in a note to clients.

Inflation hit a 9-year high of 11.9 percent in October, while Turkish bond yields have reached record levels above 13 percent. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said on Wednesday an insufficient response by the central bank would be an immediate concern for Turkey’s sovereign debt rating.

Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek has promised the government will do whatever is necessary if its banks are hit by the U.S. trial but Mehmet Emin Ozcan, CEO of state-owned Vakifbank, expects no negative impact.

“We didn’t face any problem with borrowing from international markets and I don’t think we’ll have a problem in the future,” he said this week.

Still, investors’ fears persist. While international sanctions on Iran were eased last year, U.S. measures remain and penalties for any infringements can be devastating – as a $9 billion fine on French bank BNP Paribas last year attests.

The potential damage of any fines on Turkish bank reserves has exaggerated the lira’s weakness, compounding the problems of the banks which have about $172 billion in external debt, according to Fitch ratings agency. Of this, $96 billion is due within the next year, the data showed at the end of September.

Health and growth

The issue is central to Turkey’s economic health and growth.

As in other countries with low domestic savings, it relies on foreign borrowing, with banks acting as the conduit for a major part of the flows. Any stop in the financing could wreak havoc.

Turkish banks have average capital ratios that are double the 8 percent minimum stipulated by Basel 3 global banking rules. Also, the lira’s depreciation should not compromise their ability to repay dollar debt as the regulator does not permit lenders to hold open, or unhedged, hard currency liabilities.

Fitch reckons banks can, if needed, access up to $90 billion over 12 months by tapping reserves they hold at the central bank and by unwinding currency derivatives positions. But a prolonged funding crunch will be a different story.

That would risk “pressures on foreign currency reserves, the exchange rate, interest rates and economic growth”, Fitch warns.

That’s because the lenders’ capital buffers held with the central bank – totaling just over $60 billion – are a major part of authorities’ $117 billion reserve war chest, and any depletion of this would leave the lira dangerously exposed.

“Usable” reserves – excluding gold and bank reserves – are around $35 billion, analysts estimate. That means the central bank will have no option but to raise interest rates sharply to counter any lira selloff, with damaging consequences for economic growth.

So far, the banks have avoided refinancing stress; Turkish lending is lucrative for European banks which may be unwilling to risk those long-standing ties.

Indeed, external debt rose around $9 billion in the first half of 2017, Fitch data showed, while Garanti Bank last week announced a $1.35 billion syndicated loan, with 38 banks participating.

But costs are rising – Garanti paid 1.25 percent above LIBOR on a one-year loan, while in 2016 and 2015 it paid 1.10 percent and 0.75 percent above LIBOR respectively.

Huseyin Aydin, chairman of the Banks Association of Turkey, told Reuters he had not observed any low appetite for taking Turkish risk. However, he added: “Foreign borrowing interest rates increased around 50-60 basis points in a tough year like 2017. It is possible that a limited increase will continue in

rates in 2018.”

Paul McNamara, investment director at GAM, has been among those who have warned for some time of trouble. He said he has sold all his Turkish debt because of the banks’ vulnerability.

“Local banks have borrowed an immense amount – north of $100 billion – abroad and lent that money on locally,” he said. “Any stress on Turkish bank syndications and this goes bad very fast.”

 
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This week, more than 1,000 entrepreneurs, business executives and government officials are in Hyderabad India to discuss ways to empower people to start businesses and build networks. The focus of the 8th annual Global Entrepreneurship Summit is women, who still lag behind men when it comes to founding businesses and getting funding. Michelle Quinn reports from Hyderabad.
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U.S. ethanol producers, looking to relieve a growing domestic glut, are hunting for new international fuel markets to replace China and Brazil after trade disputes slashed exports to those top buyers.

Without new markets, U.S. producers may have to pare output after spending hundreds of millions of dollars on biofuel production plants in recent years. Currently, the most promising potential destinations for U.S. fuel exports appear to be Mexico and India, industry executives said.

China and Brazil accounted for 41 percent of the 1.17 billion gallons the United States exported last year. Shipments to the two shriveled in September, making U.S. exports for that month the smallest in more than a year.

“There are only so many times you can replace your top market,” said Tom Sleight, president of the U.S. Grains Council, which officials said has been calling on potential buyers in Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria.

China’s demand plummeted by more than 100 million gallons this year after it removed a preferential tariff rate. Brazil’s imports tumbled after it put a quota on imports in September to protect its domestic producers.

Selling points

To drum up new customers, Illinois-based ethanol producer Marquis Energy has sent executives to India, China, Thailand and the Philippines, promoting the corn-based fuel additive as a smog- and oil-import fighter.

“I’ve had a lot of people over there almost nonstop over the last three months,” the company’s chief executive, Mark Marquis, said of the hunt for buyers in Asia. Archer Daniels Midland Co and Flint Hills Resources also have stepped up efforts to sell into Mexico, traders said.

U.S. ethanol prices have slid to nearly a two-year low as daily domestic production last week hit a record 45.1 million gallons, making the search for new export markets more urgent.

Output this year could reach about 16 billion gallons, nearly triple that of 2007.

U.S. exports fell since hitting 2.5 million gallons per day in the first eight months this year. Shipments to Brazil sank to 19 million gallons in September, the smallest monthly volume in more than a year. Exports to China through September were just 60,880 gallons, a precipitous drop from 198 million gallons a year earlier, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

The marketing effort could pay off in Mexico, whose energy regulatory commission (CRE) is to vote soon to ease the flow of fuel imports through state-run Pemex facilities to several Mexican states bordering the United States.

If approved, significant new volumes of gasoline blended with 10 percent ethanol could begin flowing in 2018 into Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas states, CRE Commissioner Luis Guillermo Pineda told Reuters.

“The largest supplier is logically the United States, but it can be from anywhere,” Pineda said of the ethanol blend.

Import prediction

Ray Young, ADM’s finance chief, last month told analysts Mexico could be importing 200 million gallons annually by 2019.

U.S. ethanol exports to Mexico last year totaled about 30 million gallons.

U.S. inventories reached 920 million gallons in the week ended November 17, up 16 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Ethanol futures have fallen to $1.36 per gallon on the Chicago Board of Trade, down 20 percent from their 2017 high in April.

U.S. producers are pitching China and India on ethanol’s smog-fighting potential. This month, United Airlines canceled flights to India’s capital, New Delhi, citing heavy smog as a public health emergency. China ordered Beijing and more than two dozen other cities to start meeting limits on airborne pollution starting this month.

Ted McKinney, a USDA official interviewed during a biofuel-promotion trip to India, expressed optimism that country could import much more U.S. ethanol for cars and trucks. But others were not so sure.

India’s government wants to promote biofuel production using its own agricultural waste, said Jai Asundi, research coordinator at a Bengaluru-based think tank, the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy.

“There is a potential for producing ethanol from locally available sources without depending on imports,” Asundi said.
…

Eni US could begin work on oil exploration in federal waters off Alaska as soon as next month after the Trump administration on Tuesday approved permits for leases the company has held for a decade, the Interior Department said.

The department’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, issued Eni US, a unit of Italy’s Eni, a permit to explore for oil from an artificial island in the Beaufort Sea. Eni is the first company allowed to explore for oil in federal waters off Alaska since 2015.

The approval is part of the Trump administration’s policy to maximize output of fossil fuels for domestic use and for exporting.

Scott Angelle, the BSEE director, said developing Arctic resources responsibly is a “critical component to achieving American energy dominance.”

Environmentalists say exploring for oil in the Arctic is dangerous.

“The Trump administration is risking a major oil spill by letting this foreign corporation drill in the unforgiving waters off Alaska,” said Kristen Monsell, the legal director for oceans at the Center for Biological Diversity nonprofit group.

Eni wants to drill into the Beaufort from the island using extended wells more than 6 miles (10 km) long. Eni US did not immediately respond to a request for comment about when it would start drilling.

In April President Donald Trump signed a so-called America-First Offshore Energy Strategy executive order to extend offshore drilling to areas in the Arctic and other places that have been off limits.

Eni’s leases, which were set to expire by the end of the year, were outside of an area protected by former President Barack Obama weeks before he left office. The company’s plan to move ahead with risky and expensive drilling in the Arctic comes despite years of low oil prices and plentiful sources of crude in the continental United States.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc quit its exploration quest offshore of Alaska in 2015 after a ship it had leased suffered a gash in mostly uncharted waters and environmentalists discovered an existing law that limited the company’s ability to drill.

Republicans are eager to drill elsewhere in Alaska. A tax bill passed by the Senate budget committee Tuesday contained a provision to open drilling in a portion of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Conservationists say the refuge is one of the planet’s last paradises.

The bill, which Republicans hope to pass in the full Senate this week, faces an uncertain future.
…

Venezuelan leftist President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday evening held a ceremony to swear in a military officer as the new head of state oil company PDVSA in the presence of the military’s top brass and cheering red-shirted oil workers.

In a surprise move, the unpopular Maduro on Sunday tapped Major General Manuel Quevedo to lead both PDVSA and the Oil Ministry, giving the already powerful military control of the OPEC nation’s dominant industry.

“He’s a man of the people … and, most importantly, he’s honest!” said Maduro, as workers cheered and chanted that they wanted a “clean up in PDVSA!” after a series of corruption scandals.

Maduro also announced he was naming Ysmel Serrano, the head of the trade and supply division, as vice president of PDVSA, which oversees the world’s largest crude reserves. Maduro said he would seek to name the country’s former energy minister, Ali Rodriguez, as “honorary president” of PDVSA.

More military officers are set to be named to senior management posts as part of a shakeup the government says is aimed at fighting corruption, two company sources told Reuters on Monday.

Sources in the sector also said Quevedo’s appointment could quicken a white-collar exodus from PDVSA and worsen operational problems at a time when production has already tumbled to near 30-year lows of under 2 million barrels per day.

 
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As India starts to use blockchain technology for land deals, it must protect the rights of the most vulnerable with policies for the responsible use of big data, analysts said.

At least two Indian states are testing blockchain — a ledger system tracking digital information — to record land deals and bring transparency to a system that is rife with fraud and leaves the poor at risk of eviction.

Putting India’s land records on blockchain — the technology behind the bitcoin currency — would greatly increase efficiency, reduce corruption and boost economic growth, experts say.

But fears about the misuse of data persist.

“One of the biggest challenges with respect to big data is the fear of discrimination and profiling based on religion, caste or income level,” said Nikhil Narendran, a partner at the law firm Trilegal.

“The government should engage in responsible and ethical big data processing, and have adequate mechanisms to retain ownership and confidentiality,” he said in Blockchain for Property, a handbook for its adoption, released Tuesday.

Land records in most Indian states date to the colonial era, and most land holdings have uncertain ownership. Fraud is rampant, and disputes over titles often end up in court.

Torn maps, old disputes

A national land record modernization program, launched in 2008 to survey lands, update records and establish ownership, has been delayed by torn maps and disputes dating back decades.

Blockchain works by creating permanent, public “ledgers” of all transactions, potentially replacing a mass of overlapping records with one simple database.

It enables real-time updates of records, improving efficiency and transparency, and reducing bribes, analysts say.

But there cannot be a complete switch to a blockchain platform, because millions are still not literate and lack access to smartphones and computers, said Ananth Padmanabhan, a fellow at think tank Carnegie India.

“There needs to exist a dual system, that is, an option to use the online services but also the old process of paper documents submission at the government office,” he said.

It is also important that the data not be used to profile people or discriminate against them — for instance, denying home loans to people from certain backgrounds, Narendran said.

“If used in a responsible and ethical manner, big data can bring about real change, including in the area of land transactions,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “We need a model that is rights based and accountability based, so there are fewer chances of the misuse of data.”
…

Chobani, the company that helped kick-start the Greek yogurt craze, is shrinking those words on its label as it may expand beyond that food in an increasingly crowded yogurt market.

The new look, which will show up in supermarkets this week, removes “Greek Yogurt” from underneath the Chobani name. The yogurt inside will stay the same. Its packaging will be more muted than the current bright white, use a new font and style, and feature watercolor paintings of fruits rather than photographs of strawberries and peaches.

“What this new identity enables us to do is start to seed, if you will, us going into other areas beyond yogurt,” says Peter McGuinness, Chobani’s chief marketing officer. But he wouldn’t say what new foods or products it might make, or when it would happen.

Chobani has grown quickly since its yogurt was first sold at supermarkets 10 years ago. Older food companies scrambled to catch up and offer their own versions of Greek yogurt, but last year Chobani overtook General Mills Inc.’s Yoplait as the best-selling yogurt brand in the U.S., according to market research firm Euromonitor.

McGuinness says the new, thicker font makes Chobani easier to spot in the overcrowded yogurt aisle, and the off-white containers differentiate it from its rivals.

Its Smooth Yogurt, which it launched earlier this year as a less-tart alternative to Greek yogurt, gets a more colorful container and shrinks the Chobani name. A similar treatment was given to Chobani Flip, which has yogurt in one container and mix-ins such as chocolate or dried cranberries in the other. Flip, which was launched nearly four years ago, is on track to become a $1 billion business in about two years, says McGuinness. It gets people to eat yogurt beyond breakfast, he says, and brings people to the brand who may not like yogurt.

He declined to say how much the redesign would cost, but anywhere the logo appears is being updated. “This is a big investment,” he says.
…

The coal industry and environmentalists squared off Tuesday at a public hearing over the Trump administration’s planned repeal of an Obama-era plan to limit planet-warming carbon emissions.

The Environmental Protection Agency was holding the only scheduled hearing on the reversal in Charleston, West Virginia, capital of a state heavily dependent on coal mining. The hearing was expected to last two days.

 

The Clean Power Plan sought to ratchet down use of the dirtiest fossil fuel but never took effect because of lawsuits filed by coal companies and conservative-leaning states. Coal-fired power plants are a major source of the carbon emissions driving climate change.

 

Among those testifying was Bob Murray, chief executive Murray Energy Corp. He derided the Obama plan as an illegal power grab that has cost coal miners their livelihoods.

 

“The Clean Power Plan would devastate coal-fired electricity generation in America,” said Murray, whose company employs 5,200 miners and has 14 active coal mines. “This would impose massive costs on the power sector and on American consumers.”

 

Under the Obama administration, EPA held four multiday public hearings — in Washington, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Denver — to collect feedback before issuing the Clean Power Plan in 2015. About two dozen conservative-leaning states and a battery of fossil-fuel companies immediately sued, successfully preventing the carbon reduction plan from taking effect before the election of Donald Trump, who as a candidate pledged to repeal it.

 

To head EPA, Trump appointed Scott Pruitt, a former Oklahoma attorney general who was among those who fought the Clean Power Plan in court. Pruitt has made a priority the delay and reversal of recent environmental regulations negatively impacting the profits of coal and petrochemical companies.

 

Though Trump, Pruitt and others have blamed environmental regulations for the loss of coal-mining jobs, the accelerating shift of electric utilities using cheaper and cleaner-burning natural gas is a primary culprit.

 

Pruitt has also sought to cast doubt on the consensus of climate scientists that the continued burning of fossil fuels is the main driver of global warming. Scientists say climate change has already triggered rising seas and more extreme weather, including killer heat waves, worsened droughts and torrential rains.

 

Pruitt did not attend Tuesday’s public hearing, which was presided over by three EPA employees.

 

The Sierra Club’s climate-policy director, Liz Perera, told them that the proposed repeal ignores scientific reality.

 

“This is about the kind of world that we want to leave for our children,” she said.
…

Jerome Powell says that if confirmed as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, he expects the Fed to continue raising interest rates gradually to support its twin goals of maximum employment and stable prices.

 

Under his leadership, Powell also says, the Fed would consider ways to ease the regulatory burdens on banks while preserving the key reforms Congress passed to try to prevent another financial crisis.

 

Powell’s comments came in written testimony prepared for his confirmation hearing Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.

 

A member of the Fed’s board since 2012, Powell was nominated by President Donald Trump to succeed Janet Yellen after her four-year term as chair ends in February. Trump decided against offering Yellen a second term.

 

In his remarks released Monday, Powell sought to send the reassuring message that he would represent a figure of stability and continuity at the nation’s central bank while remaining open to making certain changes as appropriate.

 

On banking regulations, Powell said in his testimony, “We will continue to consider appropriate ways to ease regulatory burdens while preserving core reforms … so that banks can provide the credit to families and businesses necessary to sustain a prosperous economy.”

 

Among those reforms, Powell mentioned the stricter standards for capital and liquidity that banks must maintain under the Dodd-Frank financial reform law and the annual “stress tests” that the biggest banks must undergo to show they could withstand a severe downturn.

 

‘Gradual’ is key

Regarding interest rates, Powell said, “We expect interest rates to rise somewhat further and the size of our balance sheet to gradually shrink.” The Fed has begun gradually shrinking its balance sheet, which swelled after the financial crisis from bond purchases it made to help reduce long-term borrowing rates.

 

The Yellen Fed has raised rates four times starting in December 2015, including two rate hikes this year. Economists expect a third rate hike to occur in December, and they’re projecting at least three additional rate increases in 2018.

Powell cautioned that while Fed officials want to make the path of interest rate policy as predictable as possible, “the future cannot be known with certainty.” For that reason, he said, it’s important for the Fed to retain the flexibility it needs to adjust its policies in response to economic developments.

 

In deciding not to offer Yellen another four years as chair, Trump made her the only Fed leader in nearly four decades not to be offered a second term.

 

Yellen, a Democrat who was nominated by President Barack Obama and became the first woman to lead the Fed, announced last week that she would step down from the Fed board once Powell is confirmed to succeed her as chair. Yellen could have remained on the board even after Powell became chair.

 

Yellen will leave the Fed in February after a tenure characterized by a cautious stance toward rate hikes, relative transparency about the Fed’s expectations and projections and support for the stricter bank rules that were enacted after the 2008 financial crisis.

 

A centrist

In his five years as a member of the Fed’s seven-member board of governors, Powell has built a reputation as a centrist. He never dissented from the policies advocated by Yellen or her predecessor, Ben Bernanke.

 

In his own remarks on rate policies, Powell has so far stuck close to the Yellen line. In a speech in June, he said that while low unemployment argued for raising rates, weak inflation suggested that the Fed should move cautiously in doing so. That wary approach reflected Yellen’s own warnings about the need to raise rates only incrementally, depending on the latest economic data.

 

Powell’s actions on the Dodd-Frank Act, the law enacted to tighten banking regulations after the 2008 crisis, may turn out to be the area where he will differ most from his predecessor. Yellen rejected arguments that the tighter regulations had hurt economic growth by making banks less likely to lend. Powell, for his part, has suggested that in some areas, the Dodd-Frank restrictions might have gone too far.

 

In a congressional appearance in June, Powell said that the “core reforms” should be retained but that in some respects there was a need to “go back and clean up our work.” He indicated that two areas where loosening the rules might be considered were in easing regulations on smaller banks and revising the “Volcker rule” curbs on investment trades by big banks.

 
…

Ivanka Trump described the hurdles faced by women during a speech Tuesday at a business conference in India, which is treating her trip like a royal visit.

 

But her solo outing also highlighted questions about whether her message of empowering poor women matches her actions.

 

Trump’s speech at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit in the southern city of Hyderabad was broadcast live throughout India by major news channels. A buildup worthy of a Bollywood musical included cultural references that ranged from independence leader Mahatma Gandhi to the movie “Slumdog Millionaire.”

 

The city had cleared away beggars and filled potholes ahead of the visit by Trump, the daughter of President Donald Trump and a senior presidential adviser. She arrived without top officials from the State Department.

“As a former entrepreneur, employer, and executive in a male-dominated industry, I’ve seen firsthand that all too often women must do more than their male counterparts to prove themselves at work, while also disproportionately caring for their families at home,” Trump said in her speech.

 

But the conference’s focus on female entrepreneurs raises questions about some of the commercial decisions made by Trump and her namesake brand.

Critics have faulted her for failing to use her leadership role to call out labor and human rights abuses, particularly in China, where the bulk of her U.S. merchandise ships from. And they point out that she has failed to take a public stand on alleged abuses in her brand’s own supply chain.

 

Trump stepped back from day-to-day management of her brand before taking on an official role as White House adviser, but still retains an ownership interest.

 

“After my father’s election, I saw an opportunity to leave my businesses for the privilege of serving our country, and empowering all Americans to succeed,” she said in the speech.

Abigail Klem, president of the Ivanka Trump brand, has called supply chain integrity “a top priority,” but the brand has not joined the growing number of companies that publicly identify their manufacturers.

 

A September investigation by The Associated Press showed that Trump’s supply chain has become more opaque than ever since she took on her White House role, making it impossible to know whom her company is doing business with around the world. The brand has said supply chains are the responsibility of its licensees.

 

Earlier this month, 23 rights groups signed a letter urging Trump, her brand and two licensees to publish the names and addresses of suppliers.

 

They also urged Trump and her brand to publicly demand that the Chinese government not prosecute three activists detained this past summer while investigating the brand’s supply chain, and allow independent monitoring of factories.

Trump was joined at Tuesday’s conference by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

 

“What you are achieving here is truly extraordinary,” Trump said. “From your childhood selling tea to your election as India’s prime minister, you’ve proven that transformational change is possible.”

 

Modi was scheduled to host Trump for dinner at the luxurious Falaknuma Palace Hotel.

 

“This event showcases the close ties between the United States of America and India,” Modi said. “It underlines our shared commitment to entrepreneurship and innovation.”

Trump did not spend a lot of time during her speech discussing U.S. politics, although she did say the administration was “laser focused on passing long overdue tax cuts.”

 

The cleanup of Hyderabad, a southern technology hub, began a month ahead of the conference, when the city began rounding up several hundred homeless people and beggars.

 

Officials said the drive against begging was launched because two international events were taking place in the city — the entrepreneurship summit and the World Telugu Conference in December. Begging is a criminal offense in India and can be punished by as much as 10 years in prison, although the law is rarely enforced.

 

Beggars tend to crowd around cars at traffic signals, knocking on windows and asking for food and money. They include children as young as 5, who weave through dangerous traffic and often perform small acrobatic acts.

 

“It’s cool that she’s coming,” said Amani Bhugati, a medical student, before the speech. “She’s glamorous, beautiful and powerful. It’s like a combination of Hollywood and politics.”

 

Others marveled at the improvements made around Hyderabad. “All new,” said Gopal, a taxi driver who gave only his first name.

 

But he also pointed to the potholes that remain on many smaller streets. “She’s not coming here, so they didn’t fix it,” he said.

 

More than 1,200 people were attending the three-day conference, although not everyone was thrilled about Trump’s presence.

 

“It’s now being called Ivanka Trump’s summit. It totally overshadows all our work,” said Sangeeta Agarawal, the chief executive of U.S. startup Helpsy Health. “We feel that’s it become more about her.”

 

The annual entrepreneurship conference has a theme this year of “Women first, prosperity for all,” and involves networking, mentoring and workshops.

 

Trump was to host at least two panel discussions before leaving Wednesday.

 

 

 
…

The world economy is growing faster than it has in seven years and more and more people are working — but the high growth isn’t expected to last long, and wages remain stubbornly stagnant.

 

That’s according to forecasts Tuesday from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which urged governments to do more to ensure longer-term growth and better living standards across the board.

 

The group, which recommends policies for leading economies, predicts sustained growth in the U.S. this year and next and a sharper-than-expected increase in the countries that use the euro currency.

 

For 2019, however, the OECD forecasts “a tempering of growth rather than continued strengthening.”

 

Chief Economist Catherine Mann urged faster re-training of workers amid drastic technological changes, extending retirement ages, investing in renewable energy and simplified tax rules to reduce risks of a new downturn.

 

“We’ve got wind under the wings but we’re flying low,” she said at the OECD headquarters in Paris.

 

The agency slightly raised its global growth forecast to 3.6 percent this year — the highest since the post-crisis upturn in 2010 — thanks to rising industrial production, trade and technology spending.

 

But that “remains modest by past standards,” the OECD said.

 

Globally, it forecasts 3.7 percent growth next year with a slight drop to 3.6 percent in 2019.

 

In the United States, the OECD inched up its outlook, predicting 2.2 percent growth this year and 2.5 percent in 2018 thanks to “buoyant asset prices and strong business and consumer confidence.” It expects U.S. growth to fall back to 2.1 percent in 2019.

 

The OECD cautioned that its forecasts are clouded by uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tax policies and risks of protectionist trade moves. Trump campaigned to protect manufacturing jobs in the U.S. and renegotiate international trade deals he sees as unfair.

 

The long-troubled eurozone enjoyed another boost as the OECD became the latest group to raise its forecasts for the 19-country region. Tuesday’s report foresees 2.4 percent growth this year and 2.1 percent for next year, but predicted growth will sink back below 2 percent in 2019.

 

The main trouble spot is Britain, whose economy will continue to be hobbled by uncertainty surrounding its exit from the European Union. Economic growth “will continue to weaken” and be just above 1 percent in 2018 and 2019, it said.

 

Another big concern of the OECD: employment is rising across most rich economies, but people’s wages aren’t.

 

“It’s against intuition, it’s against basic principles of economics, and normally it should have been otherwise,” OECD chief Angel Gurria said. “Clearly growth has to be made more inclusive.”

 

“The ongoing digital revolution should be unlocking efficiencies and allowing workers to produce more,” he said. But “nobody will be able to produce more if they don’t have the skills to get the most out of the machine.”

 

The report also warned of the risks of high corporate debt in China and spiking housing prices in some U.S. cities and rising household debt.

 

 
…

In the United States, it’s Cyber Monday, a day when holiday shoppers could set a new spending record for online purchases from work, home or anywhere with their cellphones.

With rising wages in the U.S., low unemployment and strong consumer confidence, research firm Adobe Analytics predicted shoppers could spend $6.6 billion on Monday, more than a 16 percent jump over last year’s record-setting total.

Online shopping has been increasing steadily in the U.S. for years as many consumers stay away from traditional brick-and-mortar stores in favor of the convenience of shopping from laptop computers, hand-held devices or, to the dismay of their employers, workplace computers.

Black Friday

Black Friday, the day after last week’s Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., is traditionally the biggest holiday shopping day of the year, coming a few weeks ahead of gift-giving at Christmas and Hanukkah. Equity firm Consumer Growth Partners estimated Friday’s sales, both in stores and online, at about $33 billion, a 4.8 percent advance over 2016.

Even as shoppers, lured by discounted prices, thronged to stores on Friday to buy the latest tech gadgets, toys and clothing, retailers reported that overall, the number of shoppers in their stores dipped a bit, an indication that many buyers were instead shopping online.

The National Retail Federation is predicting that U.S. consumer spending in November and December could climb 4 percent over a year ago to $682 billion, which would make this the strongest holiday shopping season since 2014.

Competition

Two of the biggest online retailers in the U.S., Amazon.com and Wal-Mart Stores, are about even in offering the lowest prices on a large array of consumer items, a Reuters survey showed. A year ago, products bought through Amazon were typically 3 percent cheaper, but the news agency said its survey showed that Wal-Mart has now narrowed the gap to three-tenths of 1 percent.

The boost in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, is buoyed by a falling jobless rate. The unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in October, the lowest level in 17 years, and employers hired another 261,000 workers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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