President Donald Trump let loose with a morning round of tweets Friday that downplayed the possible consequences of his trade war with China.   

   

Trump minimized the worth of China’s purchases of U.S. goods and services, which support nearly 1 million jobs in the U.S.; misstated the trade deficit; and ignored the inevitable rise in many costs to consumers when imports are heavily taxed.  

 

The tweets came as his tariffs kicked in on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, with another round of tariffs in the offing, and as U.S. and Chinese officials negotiated in Washington. With trade relations between the economic giants seemingly rupturing and the stock market sinking, Trump called the talks “congenial.”  

 

A look at some of his statements:  

 

Trump: “Your all time favorite President got tired of waiting for China to help out and start buying from our FARMERS, the greatest anywhere in the World!”  

 

The facts: The notion that China doesn’t buy from U.S. farmers is false. China is the fourth-largest export market for U.S. agriculture. It bought $9.3 billion in U.S. agricultural products last year.  

 

As for calling himself “your” favorite president, polls find Trump’s approval rating to be high among Republicans, but it generally ranges between 35% and 45% among Americans overall.   

 

Trump: “We have lost 500 Billion Dollars a year, for many years, on Crazy Trade with China. NO MORE!”  

 

The facts: That’s wrong. When sizing up the trade deficit, Trump always ignores trade in services — where the U.S. runs a surplus with China — and speaks only of goods. Even in that context, he misstated the imbalance.  

 

The U.S. trade deficit with China last year was $378.6 billion, not $500 billion. On goods alone, the deficit was $419.2 billion.      

Trump is also misleading when he puts the deficit in that ballpark for many years. It’s true that the imbalance has long been lopsided, but the U.S. trade representative’s office notes that exports of goods to China have increased by nearly 73% since 2008 and U.S. exports to China overall are up 527% since 2001.  

 

Nor is the trade gap a “loss” in a pure sense. U.S. consumers and businesses get electronics, furniture, clothing and other goods in return for their money. They are buying things, not losing cash.  

Trump: “Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products. These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S.”  

 

The facts: This is not how tariffs work. China is not writing a check to the U.S. Treasury. The tariffs are paid by American companies, which usually pass the cost on to consumers through higher prices. One theory in support of such tariffs is that higher prices for Chinese imports will encourage consumers to buy goods made in the U.S. or elsewhere instead. But the risk is that consumers could simply respond by spending less than they otherwise would, which would hurt growth. 

The burden of Trump’s tariffs on imports from China and other countries falls entirely on U.S. consumers and businesses that buy imports, said a study in March by economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia University and Princeton University. By the end of last year, the study found, the public and U.S. companies were paying $3 billion a month in higher taxes and absorbing $1.4 billion a month in lost efficiency.  

 

A coalition of U.S. trade organizations representing retail businesses, tech, manufacturing and agriculture said this week: For 10 months, Americans have been paying the full cost of the trade war, not China.'' It said:To be clear, tariffs are taxes that Americans pay, and this sudden increase with little notice will only punish U.S farmers, businesses and consumers.” 

 

Trump: “Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our Country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind. Also, much easier & quicker to do. Our Farmers will do better, faster, and starving nations can now be helped. Waivers on some products will be granted, or go to new source!”  

 

The facts: In addition to repeating the canard that China pays the tariffs, he’s failing to account for the damage that tariffs can do.  

 

By most private estimates, a trade war leads to slower growth rather than the prosperity that Trump is promising. The president’s tweet also goes beyond past claims that tariffs are simply a negotiating tactic to force better terms with China. Trump appears to be suggesting that a tariff increase would generate revenues that could then be spent on farm products and infrastructure, something that might in theory require support from Congress.  

 

But on their own, tariffs are a clear drag on growth.  

 

Analysts at the consultancy Oxford Economics estimate that implementing and maintaining the latest increase would trim U.S. gross domestic product by 0.3%, or $62 billion, in 2020. This would be equal to a loss of about $490 per household.  

 

Economists at Nomura note that gross domestic product this year could take a hit of as much as 0.4% if Trump expands the taxes to all Chinese imports, as business confidence slumped and financial conditions tightened. 
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With a ring of the opening bell, Uber began picking up passengers as a newly minted public company Friday and investors waited to bet on a service with huge potential, but a long way from turning a profit.

Shares in the ride-hailing giant were sold in an initial public offering for $45 each, raising $8.1 billion, but it will take several hours for new investors to show how much they’re interested. Officials expect trading to start around 11:30 a.m.

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi and other company officials stood on a balcony above the New York Stock Exchange and clapped as the bell rang to signal the start of the day’s trading.

The IPO price on Thursday came in at the lower end of Uber’s targeted price range of $44 to $50 per share. The caution may have been driven by escalating doubts about the ability of ride-hailing services to make money since Uber’s main rival, Lyft, went public six weeks ago.

Jitters about an intensifying U.S. trade war with China have also contributed to the caution. Stocks opened broadly lower on Wall Street after the two countries failed to reach a deal before Friday’s tariff deadline.

Even at the tamped-down price, Uber now has a market value of $82 billion — five times more than Lyft’s.

Before the opening bell, Khosrowshahi tried to manage expectations for the first day of trading.

“Today is only one day. I want this day to go great, but it’s about what we build in the next three to five years,” he said in an interview with CNBC. “And I feel plenty of pressure to build over that time frame.”

Uber, Khosrowshahi said, is dealing with a potential $12 trillion market so “it makes sense to lean forward.”

He predicted that younger generations will not want to own cars. “I think more and more you’re going to have transportation on demand services, essentially de-bundle the car. They’re going to want to push a button and get the transportation they want.”

Austin Geidt, one of Uber’s first employees, rang the opening bell. She joined the company nine years ago and is now head of strategy for the Advanced Technologies Group, working on autonomous vehicles. Over the years, she helped to lead its expansion in hundreds of new cities and countries.

Both Uber co-founders Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp were present at the exchange but absent from the podium during the bell ringing.

A black Uber logo was hanging over exchange floor and bright green Uber Eats trucks were parked outside. Men in black T-shirts and hats with the Uber Eats logo handed out drinks and snacks on the trading floor while photos of sedans, helicopters and Jump bikes were shown on screens above.

No matter how Uber’s stock swings Friday, the IPO has to be considered a triumph for the company most closely associated with an industry that has changed the way millions of people get around. That while also transforming the way millions of more people earn a living in the gig economy.

Uber’s IPO raised another $8.1 billion as the company it tries to fend off Lyft in the U.S. and help cover the cost of giving rides to passengers at unprofitable prices. The San Francisco company already has lost about $9 billion since its inception and acknowledges it could still be years before it turns a profit.

That sobering reality is one reason that Uber fell short of reaching the $120 billion market value that many observers believed its IPO might attain.

Another factor working against Uber is the cold shoulder investors have been giving Lyft’s stock after an initial run-up. Lyft’s shares closed Thursday 23% below its April IPO price of $72.

Uber “clearly learned from its `little brother’ Lyft, and the experience it has gone through,” Wedbush Securities analysts Ygal Arounian and Daniel Ives wrote late Thursday.

Despite all that, Uber’s IPO is the biggest since Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group debuted with a value of $167.6 billion in 2014.

“For the market to give you the value, you’ve either got to have a lot of profits or potential for huge growth,” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal analyst at Navigant Research.

Uber boasts growth galore. Its revenue last year surged 42% to $11.3 billion while its cars completed 5.2 billion trips around the world either giving rides to 91 million passengers or delivering food.

Uber might be even more popular if not for a series of revelations about unsavory behavior that sullied its image and resulted in the ouster of Kalanick as CEO nearly two years ago.

The self-inflicted wounds included complaints about rampant internal sexual harassment, accusations that it stole self-driving car technology, and a cover-up of a computer break-in that stole personal information about its passengers. What’s more, some Uber drivers have been accused of assaulting passengers, and one of its self-driving test vehicles struck and killed a pedestrian in Arizona last year while a backup driver was behind the wheel.

Uber hired Khosrowshahi as CEO to replace Kalanick and clean up the mess, something that analysts say has been able to do to some extent, although Lyft seized upon the scandals to gain market share.

Kalanick remains on Uber’s board and while he kept a relatively low profile on Friday, he can still savor his newfound wealth. At $45 per share, his stake in Uber will be worth $5.3 billion. Hundreds, if not thousands, of other Uber employees are expected to become millionaires in the IPO.

Meanwhile, scores of Uber drivers say they have been mistreated by the company as they work long hours and wear out their cars picking up passengers as they struggle to make ends meet. On Wednesday, some of them participated in strikes across the United States to highlight their unhappiness ahead of Uber’s IPO but barely caused a ripple. A similar strike was organized ahead of Lyft’s IPO to the same effect.

In its latest attempt to make amends, Uber disclosed Thursday that it reached a settlement with tens of thousands of drivers who alleged they had been improperly classified as contractors. The company said the settlement covering most of the 60,000 drivers making claims will cost $146 million to $170 million.

Now, Uber will focus on winning over Wall Street.

Uber may be able to avoid Lyft’s post-IPO stock decline because it has a different story to tell than just the potential for growth in ride-hailing, says Alejandro Ortiz, principal analyst with SharesPost. Uber, he said, has plans to be more than a ride-hailing company by being all things transportation to users of its app, offering deliveries, scooters, bicycles and links to other modes of transportation including public mass transit systems.

“Whether or not that pitch will work kind of remains to be seen. It’s nearly impossible to tell now,” he said. “Obviously the risk to the company now is they have a lot more shareholders that they have to convince.”

 
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U.S. President Donald Trump sent a series of tweets Friday on the escalating trade war with China, as the U.S. increased tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports that China vows to retaliate to.

“We have lost 500 Billion Dollars a year, for many years, on Crazy Trade with China. NO MORE!”

Trump went on to tweet that trade talks with China are proceeding in a “congenial manner” and “there is absolutely no need to rush” to finalize a trade agreement.

The president threatened to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods. He noted that Washington sells Beijing about $100 billion worth of goods, and with the more than $100 billion in tariffs received, the U.S. will buy agricultural products from U.S. farmers and send them as humanitarian assistance to nations in need.

While some taxes are paid directly to the government when products are imported, these taxes, also known as customs duties, are frequently added to the price of the imported product. This means the taxes are paid by those who buy the product. In this case, it would be the American consumer.

Trump also chided China for trying to “redo” the deal at the last minute after the terms already had been set.

China said Friday it “deeply regrets” the increased tariffs and will take the “necessary countermeasures,” without giving any details.

The increases took effect as trade talks entered a second day in Washington between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

The negotiators ended the first day of talks aimed at saving a trade deal even as Trump said he would proceed with “very heavy tariffs” on Chinese products.”

The White House said late Thursday that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Mnuchin met with Trump to discuss the ongoing talks. Following the meeting, Lighthizer and Mnuchin had a working dinner with China’s vice premier and agreed to continue discussions on Friday.

Vice Premier Liu is leading the Chinese negotiating team in talks that threatened to collapse after the Trump administration accused Beijing of backtracking.

“We were getting very close to a deal, then they started to renegotiate the deal,” said Trump earlier in the day at the White House. “It was their idea to come back” for more talks ahead of Friday’s deadline for additional tariffs.

Trump said he also received “a beautiful letter” from Chinese President Xi Jinping that expressed a sentiment of “let’s work together.” 

Trump told reporters he believes “tariffs for our country are very powerful,” and would benefit America’s economy.

Some economists, however, predict such tariffs would cut by half the rate of U.S. economic growth seen in the first quarter of this year.

​David French of the U.S. National Retail Federation said in a VOA interview “a negotiating strategy based on tariffs is the wrong direction” and expressed hope the Chinese “make substantial concessions to avert this disaster.”

Shanghai University economics professor Ding Jianping told VOA the tariffs would also adversely impact the U.S. financial markets, which have climbed to record highs. Jianping said the record performance makes the markets “most vulnerable” because they are “not supported by science and technology.” He added, “The peak created by fiscal and monetary policy is unsustainable.”

The Trump administration hopes the new tariffs will force changes in China’s trade, subsidy and intellectual property practices.

 

The two sides have been unable to reach a deal due, in part, to differences over the enforcement of an agreement and a timeline for removing the tariffs.

Trump told reporters Thursday despite the additional tariffs, he is not looking for a trade war with Beijing.

“I want to get along with China,” he said.

 
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The International Chamber of Commerce, the world’s largest business organization, has become the latest group to criticize a proposed change to Hong Kong law that would allow for criminal extradition to mainland China. 

In a scathing letter issued to legislators Wednesday, the ICC questioned why Hong Kong is fast-tracking such significant changes to its legal system with a limited public consultation, calling the move “most unbecoming in terms of public governance.” 

The ICC’s letter follows similar concerns echoed by the European Union, the American Chamber of Commerce, the Hong Kong Bar Association and US Consul General Kurt Tong. 

The bill was introduced in April and is set to be voted on in July by its semi-democratic legislature, in which the majority is held by pro-establishment legislators. 

If passed, it would allow the city to extradite to other jurisdictions where it lacks a permanent extradition agreement, including China and Taiwan, on a case by case basis. Chief Executive Carrie Lam has previously said that such changes would close legal “loopholes.”

​It follows a high profile murder case last year in which a Hong Kong man was accused of murdering his pregnant girlfriend while on holiday in Taiwan, where the autonomous Chinese city also lacks a long term extradition agreement. The government has said speed is necessary as the murder suspect, who is serving a prison sentence on related money laundering charges, could be released as early as October. 

The changes, however, and the speed at which they have been introduced have raised international concern about the future of Hong Kong’s legal system and its global reputation. 

Hong Kong, an autonomous special administrative region until 2047, has a dramatically different legal system from the mainland because of its former status as a British colony. Its strong rule of law has led dozens of multinational firms to make the city their Asia headquarters, although the ICC said this could change if the extradition law is put in place. 

“Enactment of the amendment bill would mean more people in Hong Kong will be put to risk of losing freedom, property, and even their life in future of being surrendered, than merely passing judgment on the convicted of the Taiwan murder case,” the ICC said, urging lawmakers to take more time on the bill. 

Earlier this week, the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission also added its concern to the growing list and said the extradition agreement could “create serious risks for U.S. national security and economic interests in the territory” and “pose increased risks for U.S. citizens and port calls in the territory.” 

It also said the new law could impact the 1992 US-Hong Kong Policy Act, which grants the city special trading privileges, different from mainland China. 

In late April, an estimated 130,000 Hong Kong residents participated in a protest against the extradition agreement, according to organizers, in the largest demonstration in years. Police estimates put the figure at closer to 23,000. 
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A strike by Uber and Lyft drivers in cities across the United States this week caused barely a ripple to passengers looking to catch a ride, highlighting the challenges in launching a labor movement from scratch in an industry that is by nature decentralized.

Activists and others involved in the labor movement are still declaring it a success. It grabbed headlines, trended on Twitter and won the support of several Democrats running for president. The action was also closely watched by labor organizers, who are brainstorming about ways to build worker power in the 21st-century economy.

Drivers say they wanted to draw the attention of the public, technology investors and political leaders to their plight: low pay and a lack of basic rights on the job.

“The goal is to bring awareness to the incredible disregard for workers,” said Lyft driver Ann Glatt, who helped organize the San Francisco strike and protest outside Uber headquarters.

Starting to organize

App-based workers are thought to comprise a small fraction of the economy, but there are still millions of people making a living in gig work. Uber alone says it has nearly 4 million drivers, while Lyft has more than 1 million.

In pockets around the country, workers are starting to organize themselves, often with the help of workers’ rights groups and labor unions. In Silicon Valley, a workers’ rights group established Gig Workers Rising, which helped with Wednesday’s strike. In New York state, the AFL-CIO is pushing the Legislature to take steps to protect workers who get jobs through digital platforms. A campaign that started in Washington state this year pressured shopping service Instacart to stop counting tips toward workers’ base pay, and even won them back pay.

Among the Lyft and Uber drivers’ top issues are pay, a lack of transparency that makes it difficult to understand how much they were paid and why, and no due process when they are “deactivated,” or barred from the service.

The drivers and workers at other app-based platforms such as Instacart or food delivery service DoorDash are classified by the companies as independent contractors, leaving them without the same safeguards traditional workers receive, such as minimum wage, unemployment insurance, workers compensation and health and safety protections.

Uber settlement

Uber on Thursday disclosed ahead of its Friday IPO that it had reached an agreement to settle with tens of thousands of drivers who dispute the company’s contention that they are independent contractors. It said the payments and attorneys’ fees could reach $170 million.

Uber maintains the drivers are independent because they choose whether, when and where to provide services, are free to work for competitors and provide their own vehicles. It said it has taken steps to make drivers’ earnings more consistent and to improve working conditions, including by providing discounts on gasoline and car repairs and tuition reimbursement for some drivers.

Lyft also pushed back on the complaints, saying its drivers’ hourly earnings have increased 7% in the last two years, that on average, they earn more than $20 per hour and that three-quarters of its drivers work fewer than 10 hours per week.

Legislation push

In California, labor leaders are pushing legislation to classify many gig workers and other independent contractors as regular employees, after a state high court ruling last year.

Nicole Moore is a Lyft driver and organizer with the Los Angeles-based group Rideshare Drivers United. This week’s action came out of a strike drivers held in Los Angeles in March to protest Lyft’s IPO and a cut in Uber’s reimbursement rate from 80 cents to 60 cents per mile. Drivers after that action wanted to do more, and this week’s protest was hatched.

A core group of about 25 drivers organized it, she said, with many of the other 4,300 driver members pitching in to help.

Drivers in different cities described how they spread the word. Some spoke to fellow drivers face-to-face in driver hotspots: airport parking lots, car washes and gas stations. They reached out to driver networks in different immigrant communities and took out targeted ads on Facebook and Google.

Organizing people who don’t work in the same job location can be difficult and requires new, tech-savvy approaches, said Rachel Lauter, executive director of the Seattle-based workers’ rights group Working Washington. The group has helped organize in industries such as fast food and domestic workers, and last year started talking to workers in the gig economy about what mattered to them.

Success vs. Instacart

Their efforts galvanized this year when Instacart changed its pay model and began counting tips toward its shoppers’ base pay. The group launched a campaign using text messages, Facebook, Reddit, online petitions and other digital tools to reach out to workers and customers to let them know about the change. They encouraged customers to give only a minimal tip to send a message of protest to the company then add a tip after delivery or tip in cash. They also created online calculators to help workers understand how much Instacart was actually paying them. They held Zoom conference calls where hundreds of Instacart workers and customers called in to coordinate.

The work paid off when Instacart in February announced a number of steps “to more fairly and competitively compensate” its workers, including leaving tips out of it when they calculate how much each worker will be paid.

Mario Cilento, president of the New York State AFL-CIO, said it isn’t fair that gig platforms don’t have to pay minimum wage, payroll taxes, unemployment insurance and other expenses that traditional employers pay.

“We must get ahead of this now,” Cilento said. “We liken it to where we were with the Fair Labor Standards Act in 1938, when they came up with the eight-hour day, and child labor laws and overtime pay.” 
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U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators have ended the first of two days of talks aimed at saving a trade deal even as President Donald Trump said “We’re starting that paperwork today” for imposing new “very heavy tariffs” on Chinese products.”

The United States is set to impose an increase in tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.

They will go into effect before Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin return to the table.

Liu He is leading the Chinese negotiating team for the talks, which threatened to collapse after the Trump administration accused Beijing of backtracking.

“We were getting very close to a deal, then they started to renegotiate the deal,” said Trump on Thursday in the Roosevelt Room of the White House. “It was their idea to come back” and resume discussion ahead of the Friday deadline for additional tariffs, the president said.

Trump said he had also received “a beautiful letter” from Xi that expressed a sentiment of “let’s work together.”

Trump told reporters that he happens “to think tariffs for our country are very powerful,” in line with a view he has been expressing that such increased punitive taxes would be good for America’s economy.

​Some economists, however, predict such tariffs would cut in half U.S. economic growth seen in the first quarter of this year.

Officials in Beijing say they have “made all necessary preparations” if Trump follows through on the pledge to impose the new set of tariffs.

Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters in Beijing on Thursday that China will not bow to any pressure, and warned it has the “determination and ability to defend its own interests.” The ministry issued an earlier statement vowing to take any necessary countermeasures if the tax is implemented.

The Trump administration hopes the new tariffs will force changes in China’s trade, subsidy and intellectual property practices.

The two sides have been unable to reach a deal thanks, in part, to differences over the enforcement of an agreement and a timeline for removing the tariffs.

Trump says despite being poised to impose the additional tariffs, he is not looking for a trade war with Beijing.

“I want to get along with China,” he told reporters.
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Orlando, Florida, had 75 million visitors last year as the theme park mecca continued to be the most visited destination in the United States

Orlando had 75 million visitors last year as the theme park mecca continued to be the most visited destination in the United States, tourism officials said Thursday.

Orlando in 2018 had 68.5 million domestic visitors, a year-to-year increase of 4.1%, and almost 6.5 million international visitors, a year-to-year increase of 5.4%.

The overall 4.2% increase over 2017 figures was slightly smaller than the previous year-to-year increase of 5%. But there was a robust return of international visitors, a segment that had softened in previous years.

The international improvement was driven by Latin American visitors, especially from Brazil and Mexico, said George Aguel, CEO of Visit Orlando, the area’s tourism marketing agency.

“When folks are thinking about what they can and can’t do, we try to market why this is a good place for them to come. We focus on the feeling you get when you come here,” Aguel said. “There really is no place in the country … where you have the ability to make a connection emotionally. We play a lot on the memories we create.”

Orlando has been in the middle of a years-long expansion of rides and hotel rooms.

Accommodation expansion is at a 20-year high. The metro area already has more than 120,000 hotel rooms, the second highest in the nation behind only Las Vegas.

Additionally, attractions at the area’s theme parks are opening at a break-neck pace.

In 2017, a new water park, Volcano Bay, opened at Universal Orlando, and a new section, Pandora-The World of Avatar, opened at Walt Disney World’s Animal Kingdom.

Last year, Disney World opened a Toy Story Land.

Disney World is opening a Star Wars-themed land in August, SeaWorld debuted a Sesame Street land this spring and Universal Orlando is opening a new Harry Potter-themed ride this summer.

“We think it will help us carry over in 2020,” Aguel said. “A lot of these things start to kick in the following year.”
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