There is no holiday cheer for striking doctors in Zimbabwe this Christmas. The country’s health minister announced on Christmas eve that none of the strikers will receive their December salaries. Doctors say the strong-arming will not make them call off their almost month-long strike.

Zimbabwe’s Health Minister Obediah Moyo announced the government was suspending all striking doctors and that they would not be paid.

The doctors have been on strike since December 1, demanding that the government better equip the hospitals and pay them in U.S. dollars.

The doctors say Zimbabwe’s hospitals lack modern technology, medicines, and protective clothing. They say that being paid in the devaluing local currency, called “bond notes,” means a struggle to survive.

But Moyo was firm in rejecting the doctors’ demands.

“Government does not pay salary in foreign currency. It is common cause that we do not print U.S. dollars or any other foreign currency notes,” he said. “[On] payment of December salaries; the government maintains the policy of no work, no pay and those doctors and other health workers who did not participate in the unlawful collective job action have already received their December salaries.”

Moyo said the strike by the doctors was causing “unnecessary deaths and pain of patients.” He did not elaborate with any statistics to back up his claim. But the shortage of state doctors and health care workers has been noticeable in hospitals since the strike began.

Mthabisi Bhebhe is secretary-general of the Zimbabwe Hospital Doctors’ Association. He said the government’s suspension of the doctors and refusing to pay salaries was not productive.

“The honorable minister does not fully address grievances raised by doctors. He had already suspended about 553 doctors nationwide and how do you expect the health system of this nation to continue in such a scenario? The industrial action is still ongoing,” he said.

Union leaders say the government’s rejection of their demands has resulted in low morale among health workers.

Zimbabwe’s health sector has deteriorated in recent years amid poor funding and a struggling economy.

It largely depends on the assistance of international organizations such as USAID and the European Union.

The striking doctors say they are seeking a court order to declare the government’s failure to pay them illegal.
…

Shares on Japan’s key stock exchange plummeted Tuesday, highlighting investor fears about political turmoil in Washington and this month’s massive losses on Wall Street.

The Nikkei 225 Index lost 1,000 points — five percent of its value –to close Tuesday at 19,155, finishing under 20,000 points for the first time since September 2017. Tuesday’s closing numbers are down 21 percent from its October high.

China’s Shanghai index finished nearly one percent lower Tuesday.Markets in Hong Kong, Australia, South Korea, the U.S. and Europe were all closed in observance of Christmas.

The losses on the Nikkei were a spillover from Monday’s down day in the U.S., where the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, the S&P 500 Index fell nearly three percent and the NASDAQ Composite Index lost more than two percent.That continued this month’s run of near-daily losses, putting U.S. markets on track for its worst December since 1931, during the Great Depression.

The U.S. Christmas Eve selloff was triggered in part by President Donald Trump’s Twitter attacks on the central bank, the Federal Reserve, and its chairman, Jerome Powell, for a recent hike in interest rates, as well the partial shutdown of the U.S. government.Investors were also rattled by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s phone calls to the heads of the nation’s six largest banks on Sunday to determine if they had enough capital on hand to continue operating normally.

Trump renewed his complaints about the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, telling reporters in the Oval Office it is “raising interest rates too fast because they think the economy is so good.” The president added, however, that U.S. companies were “the greatest in the world” and that their lower share prices presented a “tremendous” buying opportunity for investors.
…

Iran’s president submitted next year’s budget to parliament on Tuesday, the first since the United States restored sanctions that had been lifted under the nuclear deal.

The $47.5 billion budget is less than half the size of last year’s, mainly due to the severe depreciation of the local currency following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. The Iranian rial has fallen from around 42,000 to the dollar a year ago to around 100,000 today.

The government plans to fund 35 percent of the budget with oil revenues, projecting exports of up to 1.5 million barrels a day at a maximum of $54 a barrel.

The opaque budget bill did not include a projected deficit or a reference to military expenditures. Earlier this month, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran spends less than $16 billion on its armed forces.

The U.S. restored tough sanctions on Iran’s vital oil industry in November, but granted waivers to a number of nations allowing them to continue imports in exchange for commitments to reduce them over time.

President Hassan Rouhani said the sanctions have hurt Iran but will not bring the Islamic Republic “to its knees.”

He said the sanctions will mainly harm Iran’s economic development and its poorer citizens. The government is allocating $14 billion to import medicine, medical equipment and other necessities, slightly more than the $13 billion allocated last year.

Lawmakers interrupted Rouhani’s speech on two occasions to protest the government’s water policies. Iran is suffering from a decade-long drought, and water shortages have sparked protests over the past year.

The budget will be subject to changes during a parliamentary review lasting more than a month. The final bill must be approved by a clerical council.

 
…

Stock markets in Japan and China saw sharp declines Tuesday, following selloffs Monday in U.S. markets.

The Nikkei fell by about five percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index was down about two percent.

In Monday’s trading, the S&P 500 finished down more than two percent and the Dow off nearly three percent.

U.S. President Donald Trump is blaming the Federal Reserve (central bank) for stock market declines and other economic problems.  

In tweets, Trump has said the only U.S. economic problem is rising interest rates.  He accused Fed chief Jerome Powell of not understanding the market and damaging the economy with rate hikes. 

The Fed slashed the key interest rate nearly to zero to boost growth during the recession that started in 2007.  The central bank kept rates low for several years.

Eventually, growth recovered, and unemployment dropped to its lowest level in 49 years, and Fed officials judged that the emergency stimulus was no longer needed.

Fed leaders voted to reduce the stimulus by raising interest rates gradually. The concern was that too much stimulus could spark inflation.  Experts say such a sharp increase in prices could prompt a damaging cycle of price increases leading to rising wage demands, which would spark another round of price hikes. 

Analysts quoted in the financial press say Trump’s attacks on the Fed make investors worry that the central bank might lose the independence that allows it to make decisions based on economic factors rather than what is politically popular.  

Some economists say investor confidence has also been shaken by Trump’s tariffs on major trading partners.  Raising trade costs can reduce trade and cutting trade cuts demand for goods and services, which slows economic growth.  

Investor confidence, or a lack of it, can cause stock and other markets to decline as worried stock holders sell shares and prospective investors stop buying available stocks.  When buyer demand drops, prices fall.  

Another factor hurting investor confidence is the political impasse in Washington over money for Trump’s border wall with Mexico.  The bickering means Trump and congress can not agree on spending priorities, so legislation paying some government employees has lapsed.  

In an effort to calm turbulent markets, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin spoke with leaders of top U.S. banks in an unusual session Sunday.  He says they have the money they need for routine operations.
…

The leading pan-European stock exchange has launched a 625 million euro takeover bid to acquire the Oslo Stock Exchange.

Euronext, the operator of stock exchanges in Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin and Lisbon, said in a statement that it had approached the board of directors of the Oslo Stock Exchange (Oslo Bors VPS) to seek its support for an all-cash offer for all the outstanding shares of Oslo Børs VPS, the Norwegian Stock Exchange and national CSD operator, based in Oslo.

“Euronext strongly believes that Oslo Børs VPS’ unique strategic and competitive positioning, including a global leading position in seafood derivatives and a deep-rooted expertise in oil services and shipping, would further strengthen Euronext’s position as the leading market infrastructure for the financing of the real economy in Europe,” the statement said. 

If the offer is accepted, Euronext would be fully committed to support the development of Oslo Børs VPS and of the broader Norwegian financial ecosystem, the statement said.

Following the initiative of a group of its shareholders to acquire the Oslo Stock Exchange, Euronext has secured support for the offer from shareholders representing 49.6% of all outstanding shares.

However, it is not certain that a transaction will be completed, Euronext’s statement said, but the pan-European stock exchange will communicate material information, if any, in due course.
…

South Korea said Monday it will fine BMW $9.9 million and will file a criminal complaint against the German automaker for delaying a recall of cars with faulty engines that caught fire. 

South Korea’s transport ministry said its investigation uncovered that BMW knew about the faulty engines, but did not execute a prompt recall. 

The ministry said BMW deliberately tried to cover up the technical issues with the exhaust gas recirculation, or EGR, even after dozens of fires had been reported earlier this year. 

“BMW announced earlier that it had become aware of the connection between the faulty EGR cooler and the fire only on July 20 this year,” the ministry said in a statement. “But we discovered that . . . BMW’s German headquarters had already formed a special team in October 2015 tasked with solving the EGR problem.” 

BMW did eventually mount a recall of more than 170,000 cars. 

The French news agency AFP reports some South Korea parking lots had refused to accept BMW cars for fear the cars would catch fire. 
…

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary called top U.S. bankers on Sunday amid an ongoing rout on Wall Street and made plans to convene a group of officials known as the “Plunge Protection Team.”

U.S. stocks have fallen sharply in recent weeks on concerns over slowing economic growth, with the S&P 500 index on pace for its biggest percentage decline in December since the Great Depression.

“Today I convened individual calls with the CEOs of the nation’s six largest banks,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Twitter shortly before financial markets were due to open in Asia.

U.S. equity index futures dropped late on Sunday as electronic trading resumed to kick off a holiday-shortened week.

In early trading, the benchmark S&P 500’s e-mini futures contract was off by about a quarter of a percent.

The Treasury said in a statement that Mnuchin talked with the chief executives of Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo.

“The CEOs confirmed that they have ample liquidity available for lending,” the Treasury said.

Mnuchin “also confirmed that they have not experienced any clearance or margin issues and that the markets continue to function properly,” the Treasury said.

Mnuchin’s calls to the bankers came amid a partial government shutdown that began on Saturday following an impasse in Congress over Trump’s demand for more funds for a wall on the border with Mexico. Financing for about a quarter of federal government programs expired at midnight on Friday and the shutdown could continue to Jan. 3.

The Treasury said Mnuchin will convene a call on Monday with the president’s Working Group on Financial Markets, which includes Washington’s main stewards of the U.S. financial system and is sometimes referred to as the “Plunge Protection Team.”

The group, which was also convened in 2009 during the latter stage of the financial crisis, includes officials from the Federal Reserve as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Wall Street is also closely following reports that Trump has privately discussed the possibility of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Mnuchin said on Saturday Trump told him he had “never suggested firing” Powell.

Trump has criticized the U.S. central bank for raising interest rates this year, which could further dampen economic growth. The Fed’s independence is seen as a pillar of the U.S. financial system.

Mnuchin’s calls come as a range of asset classes have suffered steep losses.

In December alone, the S&P 500 is down nearly 12.5 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite has slumped 13.6 percent. The Nasdaq is now in a bear market, having declined nearly 22 percent from its record high in late August, and the S&P is not far off that level.

Corporate credit markets have been under duress as well, and measures of the investment grade corporate bond market are poised for their worst yearly performance since the 2008 financial crisis.

The high-yield bond market, where companies with the weakest credit profiles raise capital, has not seen a deal all month.

The last time that happened was in November 2008.

 
…

A White House official says tension between a president and the interest-rate setting Federal Reserve is “traditional as part of our system.”

Acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney says it should come as no surprise that President Donald Trump is unhappy the central bank, an independent agency, “is raising rates and we think driving down the value of the stock market.”

 

Speculation about the fate of Trump’s appointed Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, has swirled after Bloomberg News reported that Trump discussed firing Powell after this past week’s rate increase.

 

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tweeted Saturday that Trump has denied ever suggesting that and doesn’t believe he has the right to dismiss Powell.

 

Mulvaney also tells ABC’s “This Week” that the economy’s “fundamentals are still strong.”

 
…

China and the United States held a vice ministerial-level call on Friday, the second such contact in a week, achieving a “deep exchange of views” on trade imbalances and the protection of intellectual property, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said.

A statement posted on the ministry’s website on Sunday said the two countries “made new progress” on those issues, without specifying further.

It also said China and the United States discussed arrangements for the next call and mutual visits.

On Wednesday, the ministry said Beijing and Washington had held a vice ministerial-level telephone call about trade and economic issues, without providing other details.

The calls took place amid signs of a thaw in a trade dispute between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this month agreed to a truce that delayed the planned Jan. 1 U.S. increase of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods while they negotiate a trade deal.

Chinese Commerce Ministry officials indicated earlier the two countries were in close contact over trade, and any U.S. trade delegation would be welcome to visit.
…

In 2018, sitting leaders relinquished power in South Africa and Ethiopia. Zimbabwe elected a new leader after 37 years of rule by former President Robert Mugabe. Peaceful power transitions were also seen in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Mali. But while many find those trends encouraging, the opposite is also true in countries where some of world’s longest serving leaders continue to hold power. VOA correspondent Mariama Diallo reports on the overall trends that are sparking both hope and worry.
…

Now in its 10th year, America’s economic expansion still looks sturdy. Yet the partial shutdown of the government that began Saturday has added another threat to a growing list of risks. 

 

The stock market’s persistent fall, growing chaos in the Trump administration, higher interest rates, a U.S.-China trade war and a global slowdown have combined to elevate the perils for the economy. 

 

Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he thinks the underlying fundamentals for growth remain strong and that the expansion will continue. But he cautioned that the falling stock market reflects multiple hazards that can feed on themselves. 

 

“What really matters is how people perceive these headwinds — and right now markets and investors perceive them as leading us into a recessionary environment,” Daco said. 

 

Many economic barometers still look encouraging. Unemployment is near a half-century low. Inflation is tame. Pay growth has picked up. Consumers boosted their spending this holiday season. Indeed, the latest figures indicate that the economy has been fundamentally healthy during the final month of 2018. 

 

Still, financial markets were rattled Thursday by President Donald Trump’s threat to shut down the government unless his border wall is funded as part of a measure to finance the government — a threat that became reality on Saturday. As tensions with the incoming Democratic House majority have reached a fever pitch, Trump warned Friday that he foresees a “very long” shutdown. 

 

The expanding picture of a dysfunctional Trump administration grew further with the surprise resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis in protest of Trump’s abrupt decision to pull U.S. troops out of Syria — a move that drew expressions of alarm from many Republicans as well as Democrats. 

 

How markets and government officials respond to such risks could determine whether the second-longest U.S. expansion on record remains on course or succumbs eventually to a recession.

 

A closer look at the risks: 

 

Administration chaos 

 

It has been a tumultuous few days, even for a White House that has been defined by the president’s daily dramas. 

 

Trump faces an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections that has led to indictments and criminal convictions of some of his closest confidants. He is coping with a wave of top staff defections, having lost both his chief of staff and defense secretary. He is in the process of installing a new attorney general. 

 

Then there is the partial government shutdown that Trump himself has pushed. 

 

The shutdown is unlikely to hurt economic growth very much, even if it lasts awhile, because 75 percent of the government is still being funded. S&P Global Ratings estimates that each week of the shutdown would shave a relatively minuscule $1.2 billion off the nation’s gross domestic product. 

 

Still, the problem is that the Trump administration appears disinclined to cooperate with the incoming House Democratic majority. So the federal support through deficit spending that boosted the economy this year will likely wane, Lewis Alexander, U.S. chief economist at Nomura, said in his 2019 outlook. 

 

That, in part, is why the economy is widely expected to weaken from its roughly 3 percent growth this year, which would be the strongest performance since 2005. 

 

Tumbling stocks

Stock investors have been trampled since October, with the Dow Jones industrial average sinking nearly 15 percent. The plunge followed a propulsive winning streak for the stock market that began in 2009. But investors are internalizing all the latest risks, including Trump’s trade war with China and higher borrowing rates, and how much they might depress corporate profits and the economy.  

“Markets people are forward-looking, so they’re taking into account the latest information,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. 

 

Markets can often fall persistently without sending the economy into a tailspin. But O’Sullivan warned of a possible feedback loop in which tumbling stock prices would erode consumer and business confidence, which in turn could send stocks sinking further. At that point, the economy would likely worsen, the job market would weaken and many ordinary households would suffer. 

 

Trade war

For economists, this may pose the gravest threat to the economy. Trump has imposed tariffs against a huge swath of goods from China, which has retaliated with its own tariffs on U.S. products. These import taxes tend to dampen economic activity and diminish growth. 

 

“The trade war with China is now the biggest impediment to U.S. economic growth,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in his forecast for the first half of 2019. 

 

In part because of the taxes Trump imposed on Chinese imports, manufacturing growth appears to be slowing, with factory owners facing higher costs for raw materials. The president has held off on further escalating tariffs to see if an agreement, or at least a lasting truce, can be reached with China by March. 

 

Any damage from trade wars tends to worsen the longer the disputes continue. So even a tentative resolution in the first three months of 2019 could remove one threat to economic growth. 

 

Interest rate hikes 

 

The Federal Reserve has raised a key short-term rate four times this year and envisions two more increases in 2019. Stocks sold off Wednesday after Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the rationale. Powell’s explanation, in large part, was that the Fed could gradually raise borrowing costs and limit potential U.S. economic growth because of the job market’s strength. 

The Fed generally raises rates to keep growth in check and prevent annual inflation from rising much above 2 percent. But inflation has been running consistently below that target. 

 

If the central bank were to miscalculate and raise rates too high or too fast, it could trigger the very downturn that Fed officials have been trying to avoid. This has become a nagging fear for investors. 

 

Global slowdown 

 

The world economy is showing clear signs of a downshift, with many U.S. trading partners, especially in Europe and Asia, weakening or expected to expand at a slower speed. Their deflating growth can, in turn, weigh down the U.S. economy. 

 

Several other global risks abound. There is Britain’s turbulent exit from the European Union. Italy appears close to recession and is struggling to manage its debt. China, the world’s second-largest economy after the U.S., is trying to manage a slowdown in growth that is being complicated by its trade war with Trump. 

 

“Next year is likely to be challenging for both investors and policymakers,” Alexander, the Nomura economist, concluded in his outlook. 
…

U.S. President Donald Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Bloomberg reported Saturday.

Citing four people familiar with the discussions, Bloomberg reported Trump has become more frustrated with Powell after months of stock market losses and the central bank’s interest rate hike on Wednesday.

Advisers reportedly have warned Trump that firing Powell would further roil financial markets, yet they said Trump has discussed the matter many times in the past few days.

The sources who spoke with Bloomberg on condition of anonymity were not convinced Trump would fire Powell, and were hopeful the president’s anger over the situation would subside over the holidays.The White House and the Federal Reserve have declined to comment.

A firing of Powell would come after weeks of heavy losses in the markets. On Friday, equities closed their worst week since 2011, with the S&P 500 Index plummeting more than 7 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index plunging into a bear market.

Trump has been busy shaking up his administration since the November midterm elections. He has announced the departures of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and Defense Secretary James Mattis.
…

After almost 10 years, Wall Street’s rally looks like it’s ending. 

Another day of big losses Friday left the U.S. market with its worst week in more than seven years. All of the major indexes have lost 16 to 26 percent from their highs this summer and fall. Barring huge gains during the upcoming holiday period, this will be the worst December for stocks since 1931. 

 

There hasn’t been one major shock that has sent stocks plunging. The U.S. economy has been growing since 2009, and most experts think it will keep expanding for now. But it’s likely to do so at a slower pace. 

 

As they look ahead, investors are finding more and more reasons to worry. The U.S. has been locked in a trade dispute with China for nine months. Economies in Europe and China are slowing. And rising interest rates in the U.S. could slow its economy even more. 

Dreadful month

 

Stocks are now headed for their single worst month since October 2008, when the market was being battered by the global financial crisis. 

 

December is generally the strongest time of the year for U.S. stocks. Traders often talk about a “Santa rally” that adds to the year’s gains as people adjust their portfolios in anticipation of the year to come.  

  

But not this year. 

 

No sector of the market has been spared. Large multinational companies join smaller domestic ones in their losses. And huge high-tech companies, once the best-performing stocks on the market, are now leading the way lower.  

  

Technology’s huge popularity during the recent boom years made it even more vulnerable as investors’ moods turn sour. Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google’s parent company, Alphabet, have seen their market values fall by hundreds of billions of dollars. 

 

“If you live by momentum, you die by momentum,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA. 

 

The Nasdaq composite, which contains a high concentration of tech stocks, has sunk almost 22 percent from its record high in late August. Several big technology companies, notably Facebook and Twitter, have also suffered as a result of scandals over matters such as data privacy and election meddling, and traders worry that the industry will face greater government regulation that could increase costs and affect their profits. 

 

The major U.S. indexes fell 7 percent this week and they’ve sunk more than 12 percent in December. 

Global slowdown

 

Investors around the world have grown increasingly pessimistic about the global economy’s prospects over the next few years. It’s widely expected to slow down, but traders are concerned the cooling might be worse than they previously believed.  

  

After a sharp early gain Friday, the S&P 500 index retreated 50.84 points, or 2.1 percent, to 2,416.58. The S&P 500, the benchmark for many index funds, has fallen 17.5 percent from its high in September. 

 

The Dow Jones industrial average sank 414.23 points, or 1.8 percent, to 22,445.37. The Nasdaq skidded 195.41 points, or 3 percent, to 6,332.99. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks lost 33.92 points, or 2.6 percent, to 1,292.09. 

 

European markets rose slightly and Asian markets were mixed.  

  

The price of oil has also fallen sharply in recent weeks, down 40 percent from the high it reached in October, amid concerns over a glut in the market and the slowing economy. 

 

On Friday the price of U.S. crude slipped 0.6 percent to $45.59 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the standard for international oil prices, fell 1 percent to $53.82 a barrel in London. 
…

The Canadian economy expanded by a greater-than-expected 0.3 percent in October from September, pushed higher by strength in manufacturing, finance and insurance, Statistics Canada data indicated Friday.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted monthly GDP would increase by 0.2 percent. Fifteen of the 20 industrial sectors — which Statscan says represents around 80 percent of the economy — posted gains.

The release could well be a pleasant surprise for Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who complained earlier this month that economic data heading into the fourth quarter were weaker than expected.

The manufacturing sector grew by 0.7 percent on higher output of machinery, primary metals, chemicals and food. The finance and insurance sector advanced by 0.9 percent on increased activity in bond and money markets.

Wholesale trade grew by 1.0 percent, while utilities were up 1.5 percent on unseasonably cold weather that contributed to higher electricity demand for heating purposes.
…

Plans to build another privately-financed power station in Nigeria to help end decades of chronic blackouts have been delayed because of concerns about persistent shortfalls in payments for electricity across the sector.

The $1.1 billion Qua Iboe Power Plant being developed by energy infrastructure company Black Rhino and the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation won’t get a green light by the end of 2018 as planned and it was unclear when the deal might close, NNPC told Reuters.

The delay is a setback for Africa’s biggest oil producer where 80 million people don’t have access to grid power supplies and it exposes the difficulties in attracting private investment to a sector that successive governments have tried to reform.

The uncertainty surrounding the 540-megawatt Qua Iboe plant stems from the difficulties Nigeria’s first privately-financed independent power project — the 460-megawatt Azura-Edo plant — has encountered since it came online this year.

Azura was meant to be a model for a string of independent power plants financed by international investors. To give them confidence to invest in the first major plant since the power sector was privatized in 2013, the World Bank provided a safeguard known as a partial risk guarantee — meaning the lender would step in if Nigeria defaulted on payments.

Under the current system, the government-owned Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading company (NBET) buys power from generators and passes it on to distributors who then collect money from customers and reimburse NBET.

But because NBET is not paid in full for the power it buys, generators such as Azura have been partly reimbursed from an emergency central bank loan fund created to keep the sector afloat.

NNPC told Reuters one of the reasons the Qua Iboe plant (QIPP), which is due to be built in the southern state of Akwa Ibom, had been delayed was because NBET appeared reluctant to commit to new projects to avoid increasing its liabilities.

“The continued delay relates to the current cashflow challenges at NBET, as highlighted by the Azura project,” a spokesman for NNPC said in an emailed statement. “This concern is justified by the fact that NBET is yet to see an improvement in collections from DISCOs [distribution companies].”

NBET did not immediately respond to a request for comment on NNPC’s statement about QIPP.

NBET chief executive Marilyn Amobi told Reuters in November that it was hard for the company to work because of poor infrastructure and shortfalls in cash from distributors needed to reimburse generators.

“You don’t have the infrastructure, you don’t have the financial position to do it, you don’t actually have the products, and you don’t have the grid,” she said.

World Bank conditions

NNPC said another problem for QIPP was that the World Bank had made a partial risk guarantee, similar to the one that helped Azura attract investors, contingent on the government’s implementation of an agreed power sector recovery plan.

“In theory it is okay, but the risk is there are delays in the approvals which may impact QIPP,” NNPC said. Power ministry officials and the World Bank have been in talks about long-term structural changes needed to trigger the release of a $1 billion loan to help pay for reforms.

A World Bank spokeswoman said the loan had yet to be submitted to its board for approval and that the Washington-based lender considered the recovery plan to be “critical for de-risking the sector for private investments.”

Problems that need to be tackled include decaying infrastructure, mounting debts, low tariffs for electricity and a dilapidated government-owned grid that would collapse if all the country’s power generators operated at full tilt.

Even though NBET has an agreement to buy 13 gigawatts (GW) from power generators, the system can only cope with distributors sending out an average of 4 GW, according to the ministry of power.

The World Bank spokeswoman confirmed any future guarantees for independent power plants (IPPs) would be linked to the plan’s implementation – because the economic and financial viability of generation capacity expansion was at risk.

A spokeswoman for Black Rhino, which is one of private equity firm Blackstone’s portfolio companies, declined to comment on NNPC’s announcement of a delay to QIPP. When the project was unveiled, Nigerian cement giant Dangote Group was named as a joint venture partner – along with Black Rhino and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

But a Dangote executive told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the company, owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, had pulled out.

“The huge debt level, and, the fact the IPPs are not making profits, is another reason for prospective investors to be deterred,” he said. “Further, collecting revenue from the distribution companies is also becoming a mirage.”

A Dangote Group spokesman declined to comment on the delay to QIPP, or whether the company had pulled out.

‘Illiquid and insolvent’

The payment problems in the Nigerian power sector were thrust into the spotlight in March when four generating companies filed a lawsuit against the government and Azura.

To ensure the generating companies were paid in full throughout 2017 and 2018, the government created a 701 billion naira ($2.3 billion) loan fund at the central bank to guarantee payments. When the fund was established in 2017, Azura wasn’t part of the calculations.

But when Azura started producing electricity, the fund was also used to pay the new plant to ensure the terms of loan deals guaranteed by the World Bank were not breached. As a result, the other companies were told they would only receive 80 percent of the sums owed, according to the lawsuit filed in March.

The four energy companies want the fund to reimburse them in full, rather than allocating part of the money to the new plant. Azura declined to comment on payments for power generated.

“If the central bank wasn’t paying, the system would collapse,” an official at a multilateral lender said on condition of anonymity. “Qua Iboe IPP would enter a system that is illiquid and insolvent. The liquidity is being provided by the central bank.”

The official said QIPP would need the same partial risk guarantee Azura received to get off the ground, but the handling of payments to Azura by the Nigerian authorities so far meant there was little appetite to offer the same support.

Fola Fagbule, senior vice president and head of advisory at Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) — one of the multilateral lenders that invested in Azura — agreed that the Qua Iboe project would struggle without payment guarantees.

“What you have is an insolvent system,” he said. “It is really difficult to make a case for a project on that scale.”

A person with direct knowledge of QIPP who declined to be named said Azura’s experience was damaging international investors’ view of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation.

“There has to be some understanding of how the sector is going to be able to afford new electrons coming into the grid,” the person said. “[Those involved] do not want QIPP to build a project that could just end up in a default situation.”

‘Knotty issues’

Nigeria’s privatized power sector typically does not use meters to provide invoices, bill collections are low and energy tariffs have remained fixed for three years, meaning customers receive unsustainably cheap electricity.

The effect, say industry experts, is that electricity distribution companies recover so little revenue from customers that they pay less than a third of what they owe to generating companies – and that’s why debts have ballooned.

Sunday Oduntan, spokesman for the Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors, said debt levels in the sector were caused by the artificial suppression of tariffs. He said there was a 1.3 trillion naira ($4.2 billion) market shortfall that meant distributors were unable to invest in improvements.

“You cannot be selling a product below cost price and expect high remittance. The shortfall in the sector is because of the lack of a cost-reflective tariff,” said Oduntan, who speaks on behalf of Nigeria’s 11 electricity distribution companies.

Debts across the sector partly stem from a currency crisis that took hold in 2016, just months after Azura secured its financing. The bulk of power company costs are in U.S. dollars but customers pay for power in naira.

The naira lost about 30 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar in June 2016 but the devaluation was not factored into a government tariff structure that has remained unchanged. Louis Edozien, permanent secretary in the ministry of power, told Reuters there was evidence tariffs must rise, but it was also the responsibility of distributors to improve their collections, partly through better metering and infrastructure.

As for the future of QIPP, the state oil company said it would take six to eight months from whenever NBET executes an agreement to purchase power from the plant before a final investment decision could be taken.

The NNPC spokesman said there were a number of other “knotty issues”, including the completion of a transmission line from the project site. He said QIPP had now agreed in a major concession to pay $20 million for it to be finished.

He also said there was a disagreement between QIPP and the central bank about the exchange rate at which power producers could buy U.S. dollars with naira. He said this had been escalated to the minister of finance.

With the $1 billion World Bank power sector loan on hold for now, the government is considering putting another 600 billion naira into the central bank fund to pay generators when the initial amount runs out early next year, sources said.

It was not clear how the central bank loans to the sector would be repaid.

Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele told Reuters that payments from the fund could be made up to February and that the bank was holding talks with World Bank officials.

“The loan negotiations are still in progress with no terminal date yet fixed,” the power ministry’s Edozien said.

($1 = 306.6000 naira)
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