The United States told the World Trade Organization on Monday it would block the reappointment of one of the WTO’s four remaining appeals judges next month, confirming trade experts’ fears of a crisis in the system for

settling global rows.

U.S. President Donald Trump has railed against the WTO, calling it a catastrophe and a disaster. He has said the United States loses cases because other countries have most of the judges.

In fact, trade experts say, the United States has a similar, if not better, lose-win rate than other countries that have taken complaints to the WTO, and it has a rare privilege in that the judges on the WTO’s Appellate Body have always included one American.

Trump faces a barrage of disputes at the WTO against his trade policies, including global tariffs on steel and a tariff war with China. Since he came to power, Washington has blocked all appointments to the appeals chamber as existing judges’ terms end.

There are normally seven WTO appeals judges, but if Shree Baboo Chekitan Servansing, a trade judge from Mauritius, is not reappointed when his term expires on September 30, only three will remain — the minimum for the system to function.

It looks set to break down finally when two more judges’ terms expire in December 2019, but it could seize up sooner if any judges need to recuse themselves from a case for legal reasons.

If the U.S. veto paralyses the dispute system, it would end 23 years of WTO enforcement, the keystone of international efforts to prevent trade protectionism, at a time of heightened global trade tensions.

At the WTO’s monthly dispute settlement meeting, 67 member states have repeatedly petitioned Washington to drop its veto and keep the system working.

But U.S. Ambassador Dennis Shea told Monday’s meeting that the Appellate Body had consistently over-stepped its authority by reviewing and reversing factual findings by trade arbitration panels, and by interpreting WTO members’ domestic laws.

“The invention of an authority to review panel fact-finding … has added complexity, duplication and delay to every WTO dispute,” he told the meeting, according to a transcript of his prepared remarks.

Shea has previously promised to be “disruptive where necessary” to reform the WTO and has said the United States may choose not to accept appeals if they take longer than the allowed 90 days.

The United States has not followed through on the threat, but since legal rulings are routinely delayed, it effectively signaled that Washington reserved the right to ignore rulings that Washington does not like.
…

Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Sunday that bilateral negotiations with the United States about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) were in the “final hours.”

Speaking as he arrived for talks at the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, Guajardo said the negotiators would need at least a week to work with Canada, the third country in the trilateral trade pact, pushing any possible final deal into at least September.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States could reach a “big Trade Agreement” with Mexico soon as incoming Mexican trade negotiators signaled possible solutions to energy rules and a contentious U.S. “sunset clause” demand.

 
…

John Cronin has never been one to let disability hold him back. The 22-year-old from Long Island, N.Y., was born with Down syndrome, a genetic disorder that causes developmental and intellectual delays. Motivated by his family’s love and encouragement, Cronin teamed up with his father 18 months ago to open a business. But not just any business. John’s Crazy Socks sells, you guessed it, socks. And as Faiza Elmasry reports, it’s a business worth $4 million. Faith Lapidus narrates.
…

Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk says investors have convinced him that he shouldn’t take the company private, so the firm will remain on the public stock markets.

The eccentric and sometimes erratic CEO said in a statement late Friday that he made the decision based on feedback from shareholders, including institutional investors, who said they have internal rules limiting how much they can sink into a private company.

Musk met with the electric car and solar panel company’s board on Thursday to tell them he wanted to stay public and the board agreed, according to the statement.

In an Aug. 7 post on Twitter, Musk wrote that he was considering taking the company private. He said it would avoid the short-term pressures of reporting quarterly results.
…

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has appointed a former federal prosecutor to monitor China’s ZTE Corp — after people familiar with the matter said he rescinded an offer to a former U.S. official for signing a “Never Trump” letter before the 2016 presidential election.

A new monitor for ZTE is required as part of a June settlement that ended a ban on U.S. companies selling components to China’s No. 2 telecommunications equipment maker. The ban threatened ZTE’s survival and became a source of friction in trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

Roscoe Howard, a former U.S. attorney in Washington, will lead a compliance team designed to help ensure that ZTE does not illegally sell products with American parts to Iran and other sanctioned countries.

Howard, who got his law degree from the University of Virginia in 1977, is a partner in Barnes & Thornburg’s litigation department in Washington, and served as associate independent counsel during the Clinton and George H. W. Bush administrations.

Howard was not the first choice of Commerce Department officials.

Peter Lichtenbaum, a former assistant secretary for export administration at the Commerce Department, received a letter on Aug. 15 offering him the post, sources said.

Ross then learned that Lichtenbaum was among the dozens of former national security officials who signed a letter in August 2016 saying Trump was not qualified to be president and they would never vote for him, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

Last Friday, two days after making the offer, the department withdrew it, the sources said.

“This is the final decision. Period,” a Commerce Department spokesman said about Ross’ decision to rescind the offer to Lichtenbaum and choose Howard.

Trump, a former real estate magnate and reality television star, drew opposition from establishment Republicans who opposed his candidacy during the 2016 presidential campaign. His administration has been known to reject people who opposed him.

Violations by ZTE

ZTE, which relies on American-origin components for its smartphones and computer networking gear, pleaded guilty last year to violating U.S. sanctions by illegally shipping U.S. goods and technology to Iran.

The ban on ZTE was imposed in April after officials said the company made false statements about disciplining 35 employees tied to the wrongdoing.

As part of the 2017 guilty plea, ZTE paid nearly $900 million. To lift this year’s ban, it paid an additional $1 billion penalty, placed $400 million in escrow in case of future violations, and installed a new board and senior management.

Two monitors​

Under the latest agreement, the Commerce Department is selecting a monitor to oversee compliance for ZTE and its worldwide affiliates for 10 years. Howard will have a staff of at least six people funded by ZTE, including at least one expert in export controls, the Commerce spokesman said.

The government monitor has been designated as a “special compliance coordinator” to distinguish from another monitor for ZTE appointed by a U.S. judge in Texas when the company pleaded guilty last year.

That monitor, James Stanton, a lawyer who has handled personal injury cases among others, was picked by U.S. District Judge Ed Kinkeade, sources told Reuters last year. Kinkeade has control over that monitor.

A key reason the Commerce Department sought a second monitor, according to sources, was to have a qualified person police the company and report directly to the department and the company.
…

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will not lack for urgent topics to address when he gives the keynote speech Friday to an annual gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Fed watchers will be listening for anything Powell has to say about financial turmoil in emerging markets, the economic threats posed by the growing trade war launched by President Donald Trump, and Trump’s criticism of the Fed’s recent interest rate hikes.

Investors will especially want to hear whether Powell addresses the central question of whether any of those developments might lead the Fed to alter its plan to raise interest rates two more times this year and to keep raising them next year as well.

If Powell sounds confident that the economy won’t be unduly hurt by the administration’s tariffs on imports and the retaliatory tariffs they have provoked or by a currency crisis in developing markets, Fed watchers will likely conclude that the central bank will maintain a course of gradual rate hikes to reflect a robust economy.

But if Powell strikes a message of concern, it could be read as a sign that the Fed is considering slowing its hikes. A slower pace of rate increases would be intended to encourage continued borrowing and spending by companies and individuals to drive economic growth.

​Political pressure

Amid the grandeur of the Grant Teton Mountains, Powell will be the lead-off speaker at the conference, which has been sponsored for more than three decades by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

It will be Powell’s first chance to respond publicly to Trump’s recent criticism, which critics say amounted to an intrusion on the Fed’s longstanding independence from political influence. Two top Fed officials made clear Thursday that Trump’s criticism won’t affect their decisions on whether to continue raising rates. The Fed is widely expected to resume doing so at its next policy meeting late next month.

“Our job at the Fed is to make decisions on monetary policy and supervision without regard to political considerations, and I’m confident we’ll continue to do that,” Robert Kaplan, head of the Fed’s Dallas regional bank, said in an interview with CNBC. Kaplan said he foresees three to four more rate hikes over the next nine to 12 months.

Similarly, Esther George, head of the Kansas City Fed, said she expects the central bank to raise rates twice more this year, with more next year.

“Expressions of angst about higher interest rates are not unique to this administration,” she said in a separate interview with CNBC.

This week, Trump complained in an interview with Reuters that he was “not thrilled” with Powell’s Fed for raising rates. It marked the second time this summer that Trump had publicly criticized the policymaking of the Fed.

That broke a tradition that the White House should refrain from attacks on the Fed because such criticism can shake the confidence of financial markets and that the Fed is committed to keeping inflation under control without regard to political considerations.

Seven interest rate hikes

The Fed has raised its key policy rate seven times since late 2015 after seven years of keeping the rate at a record low near zero to help the economy recovery from the Great Recession. Five of those rate hikes, including two this year, have occurred with Trump in the White House. In June, the Fed boosted its projection for expected hikes this year from three to four.

The Fed’s policy rate stands in a range of 1.75 percent to 2 percent. The rate hikes are intended to prevent the economy from overheating and inflation from accelerating. But higher rates make borrowing costlier and can depress stock prices. Trump has complained that the Fed’s efforts are hampering his attempts to boost growth with his $1.5 trillion tax cut, deregulation and tougher enforcement of trade agreements.
…

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled Friday that he expects the Fed to continue gradually raising interest rates if the U.S. economic expansion remains strong.

Powell added that while annual inflation has risen to near the Fed’s 2 percent target rate, it doesn’t seem likely to accelerate above that point. That suggests that he doesn’t foresee a need for the Fed to step up its rate hikes. Late next month, the Fed is widely expected to resume raising rates.

Speaking to an annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said the Fed recognizes that it needs to strike a careful balance between its mandates of maximizing employment and keeping price increases stable. He said a gradual approach is the best way for the Fed to navigate between the risks of raising rates too fast and “needlessly shortening the expansion” and moving too slowly and risking an overheated economy.

“My colleagues and I,” the Fed chairman said in his speech, “are carefully monitoring incoming data, and we are setting policy to do what monetary policy can do to support continued growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near 2 percent.”

Powell made no mention of the recent public criticism from President Donald Trump, who has said he’s unhappy with the Fed’s rate hikes. The president has complained that the Fed’s tightening of credit could threaten the continued strong growth he aims to achieve through the tax cuts enacted late last year, a pullback of regulations and a rewriting of trade deals to better serve the United States.

Many have seen Trump’s complaints about the Fed’s rate hikes as an intrusion on the central bank’s longstanding independence from political influence. On Thursday, two top Fed officials made clear Thursday that Trump’s criticism won’t affect their decisions on whether to continue raising rates.

Powell also made no mention in his speech of what many economists see as the most serious threat to the economy: The trade war that Trump has launched with America’s main trading partners — a conflict that risks depressing U.S. and global economic growth the longer it goes on.

The Fed chairman focused his remarks in part on the difficulty the Fed faces in setting interest-rate policies at a time when the economy seems to be undergoing changes that challenge long-standing beliefs of how low unemployment can fall before it ignites inflation pressures. He said there is also much uncertainty over the “neutral” rate of inflation —  the point at which the Fed’s policy rate is neither stimulating economic growth or holding it back.

The Fed’s economic projections, compiled from estimates of all Fed officials, estimates the current neutral rate at 2.9 percent. But Powell noted that there’s a wide difference of opinion about it.

After having kept its key policy rate near zero for seven years to help lift the economy out of the Great Recession, the Fed has raised rates seven times, most recently in March and June this year. Most Fed watchers foresee two more hikes this year — next month and then in December.

Powell said the Fed’s incremental approach to raising rates has so far succeeded.

“The economy is strong,” he said. “Inflation is near our 2 percent objective and most people who want a job are finding one. We are setting policy to do what monetary policy can do to support continued growth, a strong labor market and inflation near 2 percent.”
…

A new set of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by the United States and China on each other’s goods took effect Thursday.

The U.S. announced earlier this month that it would impose 25 percent tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese goods, on top of the 25 percent tariffs it imposed on $34 billion worth of Chinese products in early July. Beijing has followed suit in each case with an identical percentage of tariffs in retaliation.

The penalties, previously announced, apply to $16 billion of goods from both sides including automobiles and metal scrap from the United States and Chinese-made factory machinery and electronic components, according to the Associated Press.

China’s commerce ministry issued a statement Thursday criticizing the U.S. tariffs as a violation of World Trade Organization rules, and says it will file a legal challenge under the WTO’s dispute resolution mechanism.

The new round of tariffs took effect the day after delegations from both nations met in Washington for first of two days of talks aimed at resolving the dispute, the first such formal discussions since June.

U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters in an interview this week he does not expect much progress from the discussions.

The Trump administration is demanding that Beijing change its practice of heavily subsidizing its technology sector and open its markets to more U.S. goods.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office on Monday began six days of public hearings on the president’s plans to impose tariffs on a wider array of Chinese imports, affecting an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

Economists warn that the trade war between the world’s biggest economies would reduce global economic growth by around 0.5 percent through 2020.
…

French President Emmanuel Macron will make the tough political choices needed to meet his deficit commitments, his government spokesman said, as he looked to put a bodyguard scandal behind him at his first Cabinet meeting after the summer break.

Macron and his ministers in all likelihood need to find savings in next year’s budget, to be presented to parliament next month, if they are to prevent the deficit from ballooning once again.

The president faced his first crisis in the summer when video surfaced of bodyguard Alexandre Benalla beating a protester. Macron’s own aloof response fanned public discontent.

Now the 40-year-old leader returns to work facing difficult political choices as he embarks on a new wave of reforms to reform the pensions system, overhaul public healthcare and shake-up the highly unionized public sector — tasks complicated by forecasts that economic growth is slower than expected.

“A budget is not only figures, but a strategy, and strong political choices,” Griveaux said, without giving details on the budget negotiations. “There will be [spending] increases and then we will require efforts from other sectors.”

The French economy eked out less growth than expected in the second quarter as strikes and higher taxes hit consumer spending, official data showed in July.

Macron has linked fiscal discipline to restoring France’s credibility in Europe, and while the budget deficit — forecast at 2.3 percent of GDP this year and next — should not surpass the EU-mandated 3 percent limit, it is still expected to be one of the highest in the euro zone.

“The budget equation is becoming more complicated,” Denis Ferrand, economist at COE-Rexecode told Reuters.

The Bank of France has revised 2018 growth down to 1.8 percent from 1.9 percent. Budget rapporteur Joel Giraud in July said that a revision down to 1.7 percent could see the public deficit slip by 0.2 percentage points.

Beyond raising eyebrows in Brussels and Berlin, it would also complicate Macron’s efforts to make transfers towards social policies that might help him dispel the impression among leftist critics that he is a “president of the rich.”

“It would be more difficult to find resources for social spending,” Ferrand said.

Elysee officials acknowledge growth was lower than expected in the first half, and say the housing and subsidized jobs portfolios will see sharp cuts to help finance Macron’s priorities in education, security and the environment.

Some 1 billion euros ($1.14 billion) is expected to be saved by changing rules for widely-enjoyed housing benefits, junior minister Julien Denormandie told BFM TV earlier on Wednesday.

Last year, a cut of five euros ($6) per month to the same allowance contributed to a sharp slump in the president’s popularity, which opinion polls show plumbing lows.
…