Month: June 2018

Theater Club at NASA Center Gives Scientists Creative Outlet

By day, she’s a cryogenics engineer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, where she works on what she calls a “baby step toward a mission to Mars.” By night, she participates in Goddard’s Music and Drama Club, often known as MAD. She played keyboard for the club’s spring musical.  

“The work here can get very intense,” said Breon, a 30-year NASA veteran. “We did our thermal vacuum testing a couple of months ago, and it was an around-the-clock, 24/7 operation.” 

The club members include scientists, engineers and managers who work for NASA on projects including weather satellites and space telescopes, and they say the club is a creative outlet for them.  

“We’ve got more engineers per square foot than any other theater group around,” said Randy Barth, who directed the club’s latest musical, “Weird Romance.”

MAD has staged at least one show a year at Goddard since 1970, from “Oklahoma!” and “The Sound of Music” to science-fiction fare. Club members say it helps them with their day jobs and shows the public another side of scientists at the sprawling flight center northeast of Washington.

Astrophysicist Kim Weaver is the club’s president. Doing theater helps her connect with people who aren’t scientists, she says.  

“When I say I’m an astrophysicist, I usually get a blank stare. So in order to get (people) to actually open up and smile at me, I then say I also do theater, because that’s the part that they think is cool,” Weaver said. “You say you’re a scientist, and I think that scares people. They think they can’t talk to you.”

She was a graduate student intern when she saw a flyer about the club’s auditions for “Sweet Charity.” Making the show was what led her to take a job at Goddard. 

“It really helped improve my chances, even in my career,” Weaver said. “I met some more senior astronomers who later on down the line were able to help steer me and guide me in my career path.”

“Weird Romance’” combines science and drama.  

In the first act, “The Girl Who Was Plugged In,” a corporate mogul creates his own celebrity using a beautiful, artificial body that is controlled by a homeless woman. 

The second, “Her Pilgrim Soul,” was adapted from a “Twilight Zone” episode. In it, a projector shows holographic images of a woman that were not programmed into it, to the surprise of the scientists involved. 

One of the production’s stage directions describes a character as having “a smile that could melt frozen methane.” 

Breon considered that a good omen, since her job actually involves melting frozen methane. 

“We have to do more than smile at it, though,” she joked. 

DRC Reports First Confirmed Ebola Case in Over a Week

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has recorded its first confirmed case of Ebola in over a week, the health ministry said Thursday, although medics said they had made significant progress in their efforts to contain the disease.

The patient, a known contact of someone believed to have died from Ebola on May 20, was confirmed positive on Wednesday for the hemorrhagic fever in the rural community of Iboko, the ministry said in a daily report.

Health officials have moved aggressively to contain the epidemic in a bid to head off a repeat of the 2013-16 outbreak in West Africa that killed more than 11,300 people.

Over 1,800 health workers and other people who could have been exposed to the virus have received an experimental vaccine first tested in the waning days of the West Africa epidemic.

Those efforts and the slowing pace of new cases have led health officials to express cautious optimism about containing the outbreak, although its location directly up the Congo River from the capital, Kinshasa, remains a concern.

The last confirmed case before Wednesday was on May 30 in Iboko. The ministry also reported five new suspected cases on Thursday, including two in Mbandaka, a city of 1.5 million people.

In all, the ministry has recorded 38 confirmed, 14 probable and 10 suspected cases, including 27 deaths.

The World Health Organization said Thursday that it was committing $15.6 million over the next nine months to help the nine countries that border Congo to scale up their emergency response capabilities.

Earlier this week, the government of the northern Angolan province of Malanje closed its river border with Congo in response to the outbreak.

Google Says No to Doing AI Weapons Work

Google won’t do artificial intelligence work for weapons, the company said Thursday.  

The company will not work on “technologies that cause or are likely to cause overall harm,” wrote Sundar Pichai, Google’s CEO, in a blog post.

 

Google has come under fire in recent months for its contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to use AI for sifting through drone footage. AI is a field of study whereby a computer or technology is able to do things typically associated with human behavior, such as make decisions, plan and learn.

 

Google and other tech firms have been bringing the advances in AI to fields such as medicine, natural disaster planning, energy, transportation and manufacturing.

But these advances have also led to ethical concerns about the kinds of decisions being made without human input.

“How AI is developed and used will have a significant impact on society for many years to come,” Pichai wrote. “As a leader in AI, we feel a special responsibility to get this right.”

 

Sifting through drone footage

In recent months, more than 4,000 Google employees signed a petition calling for the cancellation of the company’s contract with the Department of Defense as part of the DoD’s Project Maven initiative. They joined other critics in raising alarms that the project could lead to the use of autonomous weapons.

 

Last week, a Google executive reportedly told employees that the company would not seek to renew its Project Maven contract with the military.  

Kirk Hanson, the executive director of the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University, which counts Google as a financial supporter, said Google’s contract highlights a larger debate about AI and military applications.

“Until we have trust that those systems will not make mistakes, we’re going to have a lot of doubts about the use of artificial intelligence for autonomous weapons,” Hanson said.

 

Google will continue some work for the military, Pichai said.

 

“We want to be clear that while we are not developing AI for use in weapons, we will continue our work with governments and the military in many other areas,” he said. “These include cybersecurity, training, military recruitment, veterans’ healthcare, and search and rescue.”

Google Bars Uses of its Artificial Intelligence Tech in Weapons

Google will not allow its artificial intelligence software to be used in weapons or unreasonable surveillance efforts under new standards for its business decisions in the nascent field, the Alphabet unit said Thursday.

The restriction could help Google management defuse months of protest by thousands of employees against the company’s work with the U.S. military to identify objects in drone video.

Google instead will seek government contracts in areas such as cybersecurity, military recruitment and search and rescue, Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said in a blog post Thursday.

“We want to be clear that while we are not developing AI for use in weapons, we will continue our work with governments and the military in many other areas,” he said.

Breakthroughs in the cost and performance of advanced computers have carried AI from research labs into industries such as defense and health in the last couple of years. Google and its big technology rivals have become leading sellers of AI tools, which enable computers to review large datasets to make predictions and identify patterns and anomalies faster than humans could.

But the potential of AI systems to pinpoint drone strikes better than military specialists or identify dissidents from mass collection of online communications has sparked concerns among academic ethicists and Google employees.

A Google official, requesting anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, said the company would not have joined the drone project last year had the principles already been in place. The work comes too close to weaponry, even though the focus is on non-offensive tasks, the official said Thursday.

Google plans to honor its commitment to the project through next March, a person familiar with the matter said last week.

More than 4,600 employees petitioned Google to cancel the deal sooner, with at least 13 employees resigning in recent weeks in an expression of concern.

A nine-employee committee drafted the AI principles, according to an internal email seen by Reuters.

The Google official described the principles as a template that any software developer could put into immediate use. Though Microsoft and others released AI guidelines earlier, the AI community has followed Google’s efforts closely because of the internal pushback against the drone deal.

Google’s principles

Google’s principles say it will not pursue AI applications intended to cause physical injury, that tie into surveillance “violating internationally accepted norms of human rights,” or that present greater “material risk of harm” than countervailing benefits.

“The clear statement that they won’t facilitate violence or totalitarian surveillance is meaningful,” University of Washington technology law professor Ryan Calo tweeted Thursday.

Google also called on employees and customers developing AI “to avoid unjust impacts on people,” particularly around race, gender, sexual orientation, and political or religious belief.

The company recommended that developers avoid launching AI programs likely to cause significant damage if attacked by hackers because existing security mechanisms are unreliable.

Pichai said Google reserved the right to block applications that violated its principles. The Google official acknowledged that enforcement would be difficult because the company cannot track each use of its tools, some of which can be downloaded free of charge and used privately.

Google’s decision to restrict military work has inspired criticism from members of Congress. Representative Pete King, a New York Republican, tweeted Thursday that Google not seeking to extend the drone deal “is a defeat for U.S. national security.”

Foreign Firms Invest in Brazil Oil Despite Fuel Price Strike

Multinational oil companies bought significant stakes in three Brazilian pre-salt oil fields auctioned Thursday, a show of confidence in the future of the energy sector despite a recent strike by truckers over rising fuel prices that brought Latin America’s largest nation to a halt.

The auction, which included several multinationals among the 16 companies bidding, was closely watched to gauge market reaction to the trucking shutdown, which raised questions about the ability of state oil giant Petrobras to set prices without government interference. 

In addition, Petrobras CEO Pedro Parente stepped down last week, saying his presence would be a distraction as the company looked to the future.

Those developments did not appear to present problems for companies that agreed to pay $798 million to explore three of four fields being auctioned. There were no bids on the fourth. 

Shell buys 40 percent

In the first, Shell bought 40 percent while Chevron and Petrobras each bought 30 percent. In the second, BP Energy bought 30 percent, Statoil 25 percent and Petrobras 45 percent. In the third, Statoil and ExxonMobil bought 28 percent each, while Petrobras got 30 percent and Petrogal 14 percent. Petrobras will be the operator in all three.

“This round was extremely successful, getting the attention of large companies,” said Decio Oddone, director of the National Petroleum Agency, which regulates the oil and gas sector in Brazil. “We continue the process of attracting investment for the country.”

Last year, for the first time the government gave private companies the chance to operate pre-salt fields alone.  It was part of President Michel Temer’s plan to increase foreign investment and give Petrobras more independence to set fuel prices.

Government gives in

However, Petrobras’ future is in doubt on the heels of the truckers’ multiday strike that led to widespread shortages in supermarkets and hospitals and the shuttering of thousands of schools. 

The strike ended when the government agreed to subsidize the price of diesel for 60 days and meet several other demands. 

While Temer and Cabinet ministers repeatedly insisted Petrobras would not be messed with, the markets were suspect. During the strike, the company’s stock plunged more than 20 percent on fears that in the future the government would intervene to set prices, a common practice before Temer took power in 2016.

Atlantic reserves

The pre-salt reserves auctioned lie offshore in the Atlantic. They are more than 1 mile (1.6 kilometers) below the ocean’s surface and under a further 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) underneath soil and corrosive salt. 

Eduardo Costa Pinto, an economics professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said doubts about Petrobras’ future were likely outweighed by a combination of rising world oil prices and increasingly cheaper costs of pre-salt drilling.

“The overall risk for investors is minimal,” said Pinto.

More Than 14% of US Farm Exports Seen at Risk in Trade Disputes

More than 14 percent of $140 billion in annual U.S. farm exports have been or are likely to be hit by retaliatory tariffs in trade disputes with countries

such as China and Mexico, a top U.S. trade negotiator said Thursday.

Mexico imposed tariffs on American products including steel, pork and bourbon Tuesday, striking back against import duties on steel and aluminum imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The duties raised trade tensions and further complicated efforts to renegotiate the trillion-dollar North American Free Trade Agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico.

Trump blames the 1994 pact for U.S. manufacturing job losses to lower-cost Mexico.

Mexico is the largest export market for U.S. pork, the product likely being targeted for retaliatory tariffs more than any other commodity, said Gregg Doud, the chief agricultural negotiator for the office of the U.S. trade representative.

“We’ve got to get this NAFTA thing sorted out,” he told a room full hog farmers at an agricultural event in Iowa.

China has also imposed tariffs on U.S. pork and other products. It was the second-largest destination for U.S. pork by volume last year.

Trump has threatened tariffs on up to $150 billion worth of Chinese exports as part of a different dispute over Chinese intellectual property protections.

Separately, Trump has withdrawn from the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership promoted by Japan, the top destination for U.S. chilled and frozen beef. Europe is expected to become a bigger competitor to U.S. meat in Japan unless Washington strikes a new deal with Tokyo.

“I am very concerned about the situation with Japan,” Doud said.

A bright spot for U.S. pork is an agreement that allows U.S. pork exporters to ship meat to Argentina for the first time in 26 years, Doud said.

“These things now that we have to fix are very, very difficult,” he said. “This is going to get a little more difficult here in the short term.”

Ty Rosburg, who transports hogs for a living in Iowa and heard Doud speak, said he worried trade disputes could hurt the farmers who are his customers. Still, he said he believed U.S. officials were attempting to improve trade.

“I guess at some point you have to trust they’re working for the greater good and hope that we don’t get bit too bad,” he said.

CDC Reports Spike in US Suicide Rates

Suicide rates rose in nearly every U.S. state from 1999 to 2016, with the rate spiking by more than 30 percent in half of the country, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported Thursday.

Though mental health is often blamed for suicides, more than half of the people who took their own lives in 27 states in 2015 had not been diagnosed with mental illnesses, the CDC said.

While suicide rates rose across age groups, the CDC said people ages 45-64 had the biggest rate increase. That age group also had the highest rate. People ages 10-24 had the lowest rate.

“It’s a national problem of wide scope that we need comprehensive approaches for,” said Anne Schuchat, a CDC deputy director.

Nearly 45,000 people committed suicide in 2016, making it one of three leading causes of death on the rise in the United States, along with Alzheimer’s disease and drug overdoses.

The death of designer Kate Spade by suicide in New York this week shocked the fashion world. Her husband said in a statement Wednesday that she had suffered from depression and anxiety for many years.

The CDC said suicides were rarely caused by any single issue.

In addition to mental health conditions and suicide attempts as risk factors, other contributing circumstances include social and economic problems, access to the means to commit suicide, and poor coping and problem-solving skills, the health agency said in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The CDC found that suicides had increased in every state except Nevada, where they decreased by 1 percent. However, Nevada had the ninth-highest suicide rate in the country.

North Dakota had the highest increase, at nearly 58 percent over the studied time period.

Montana had the highest suicide rate, at 29.2 per 100,000 people per year, while the District of Columbia had the lowest, at 6.9 suicides per 100,000 people per year.

The CDC recommended a broad approach to suicide prevention, including boosting economic support by states, supporting family and friends after a suicide, and identifying and supporting people at risk for suicide.

Heat-Trapping Carbon Dioxide Levels in Air Hit Another High

The amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the air peaked again this year at record levels, scientists reported Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that carbon dioxide levels averaged 411.25 parts per million in May at the federal Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, up from 409.65 a year ago.

The Scripps Institution for Oceanography, where scientists first started tracking the gas, found a similar increase.

May is traditionally the highest month for carbon dioxide levels; in late spring and summer, plants suck the heat-trapping gas out of the air.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air has increased nearly 26 percent in 50 years. Burning coal, gas and oil emits carbon dioxide, which is a major greenhouse gas.

NOAA greenhouse gas monitoring chief Pieter Tans said the rate of increase from last year is a little less than past years but much more than it was in the 1990s.

“The emissions that we are causing today will still be in the atmosphere-ocean system thousands of years from now,” Tans said. “We are as a global society making an extremely long climate change commitment.”

Trump Says Working With Abe to Improve US-Japan Trade Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday after White House talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that the two leaders were working together to improve trading relations and that Abe promised new Japanese investment in the United States.

At a joint news conference, Trump said Abe told him Japan was buying “billions and billions of dollars of additional products of all kinds – military jets, airliners from Boeing, lots of farm products.”

“We’re working hard to reduce our trade imbalance which is very substantial, remove barriers to U.S. exports and to achieve a fair and mutually beneficial economic partnership,” Trump said.

Japan, a key American ally, is among a number of countries hit by metal tariffs Trump has imposed this year. The Trump administration has also threatened levies on imports of Japanese cars.

Trump has made clear he prefers a bilateral deal to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan, while Abe’s government says multilateral agreements would be best.

“The United States seeks a bilateral deal with Japan that is based on the principle of fairness and reciprocity,” Trump said on Thursday.

Abe said he had a detailed and candid exchange of views with Trump and the discussions focused on North Korea.

Trump said his administration encouraged Japanese investment in new plants in the United States.

“The prime minister told me that will happen,” he said. “We want new auto plants going into Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio.”

South Sudan and Sudan Agree to Repair Damaged Oil Infrastructure

South Sudan said Thursday it had agreed with its northern neighbor Sudan to repair oil infrastructure facilities destroyed by conflict within three months to boost production in Africa’s youngest country.

Michael Makuei Lueth, South Sudan’s information minister, told Reuters that officials agreed with their visiting Sudanese counterparts to “evaluate and assess the damage” to South Sudan’s oilfields in the Heglig area in the country’s north.

“There is an agreement between the two oil ministries of the two countries. They agreed to cooperate and work together in order to repair [the damage],” he said.

South Sudan depends virtually entirely on oil sales for its revenue but production has declined since war broke out in the country in 2013.

The oil is shipped to international markets via a pipeline through Sudan.

Fighting was triggered by a political disagreement between President Salva Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar, and a regionally brokered peace pact failed to end the war after violations by both parties.

Officials from the two countries “agreed that within the period of three months they will repair all the oil blocks and resume oil production in the region,” he said referring to the infrastructure in the oil blocks.

The war has uprooted a quarter of South Sudan’s population of 12 million, ruined the country’s agriculture and battered the economy.

A joint force would also be established by both countries to protect the oilfields from attacks by rebel forces in South Sudan and Sudan.

NASA Rover Data Shows Mars Had Ingredients Needed for Life

A NASA rover has detected a bonanza of organic compounds on the surface of Mars and seasonal fluctuations of atmospheric methane in findings released on Thursday that mark some of the strongest evidence ever that Earth’s neighbor may have harbored life.

But National Aeronautics and Space Administration scientists emphasized there could be nonbiological explanations for both discoveries made by the Curiosity rover at a site called Gale crater, leaving the issue of Martian life a tantalizing but unanswered question.

Three different types of organic molecules were discovered when the rover dug just 2 inches (5 cm) into roughly 3.5 billion-year-old mudstone, a fine-grained sedimentary rock, at Gale crater, apparently the site of a large lake when ancient Mars was warmer and wetter than the desolate planet it is today.

Curiosity also measured an unexpectedly large seasonal cycle in the low levels of atmospheric methane. About 95 percent of the methane in Earth’s atmosphere is produced from biological activity, though the scientists said it is too soon to know if the Martian methane also is related to life.

Organic molecules are the building blocks of life, though they can also be produced by chemical reactions unrelated to life. The scientists said it is premature to know whether or not the compounds were created in biological processes.

Whether anywhere other than Earth has harbored life, perhaps even in microbial form, is one of the paramount questions in science.

“There’s three possible sources for the organic material,” said astrobiologist Jennifer Eigenbrode of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. “The first one would be life, which we don’t know about. The second would be meteorites. And the last one is geological processes, meaning the rock-forming processes themselves.”

The rover, which has allowed scientists to explore whether Mars ever boasted conditions conducive to life, in 2014 made the first definitive detection of organic molecules, also in Gale crater rock formed from ancient lake sediment — but it was a much more limited set of compounds.

“What the organic detections in the rock do is to add to the story of habitability. It tells us that this ancient environment on Mars could have supported life,” Eigenbrode said. “Everything that was needed to support life  was there. But it doesn’t tell us that life was there.”

Christopher Webster, an atmospheric science research fellow at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, said it is possible existing microbes are contributing to the Martian atmospheric methane.

“With this new data, we again cannot rule out microbial activity as a potential source,” Webster said.

The amount of methane peaked at the end of summer in the northern hemisphere at about 2.7 times the level of the lowest seasonal amount.

The scientists were surprised to find organic compounds, especially in the amounts detected, considering the harsh conditions, including bombardment of solar radiation on the Martian surface. After drilling, Curiosity heats the rock samples, releasing the compounds.

Referring to the findings regarding organic compounds and methane, Webster said, “They hint at an earlier time on Mars when water was present and the existence of primitive life forms was possible.”

The scientists hope to find better preserved organic compounds with Curiosity or other rovers that would allow them to check for chemical signatures of life.

The research was published in the journal Science.

Hawaii Volcano Gives Experts Clues to Boost Science

Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano may be disrupting life in paradise with its bursts of ash and bright-orange lava, but it also has scientists wide-eyed, eager to advance what’s known about volcanoes.

The good news is: Volcanoes reveal secrets when they’re rumbling, which means Kilauea is producing a bonanza of information.

While scientists monitored Big Island lava flows in 1955 and 1960, equipment then was far less sophisticated. Given new technology, they can now gather and study an unprecedented volume of data.

“Geophysical monitoring techniques that have come online in the last 20 years have now been deployed at Kilauea,” said George Bergantz, professor of earth and space sciences at the University of Washington. “We have this remarkable opportunity … to see many more scales of behavior both preceding and during this current volcanic crisis.”

Starting May 3, Kilauea has fountained lava and flung ash and rocks from its summit, destroying hundreds of homes, closing key highways and prompting health warnings. Kilauea is one of five volcanos that form the Big Island, and is a “shield” volcano — built up over time as lava flows layer on top of layer.

Technically speaking, it has been continuously erupting since 1983. But the recent combination of earthquakes shaking the ground, steam-driven explosions at the top, and lava creeping into a new area some 12 miles (20 kilometers) from the summit represents a departure from its behavior over the past 35 years, said Erik Klemetti, a volcanologist at Ohio’s Denison University.

What’s happening now is a bit more like the Kilauea of nearly a century ago. In 1924, steam explosions at the summit lasted for more than two weeks.

Scientists are looking into what caused the change and whether this shift in the volcano’s magma plumbing system will become the new normal.

Radar allows researchers to measure the height of ash plumes shooting from the summit, even when they occur at night. Plume heights are an effect of how much heat energy is released and the explosion’s intensity.

“It’s one of the key factors that dictates how far ash will be dispersed,” said Charles Mandeville, volcano hazards coordinator for the U.S. Geological Survey. The other is where the winds are blowing. Such knowledge is useful in alerting the public.

Scientists can also monitor where gas is emerging, as well as determine its composition and volume. They can even measure the subtle rise and fall of the ground over a broad area and time — down to seconds — which suggests when and where magma is pooling underground.

Discovering variations or correlations between past and present activity provides more clues on what’s happening. It also helps scientists understand past lava flows, anticipate what could occur next, and pinpoint signs or patterns before an eruption.

“You’re sort of zeroing in on finer and finer levels of detail into how the volcano works,” said Michael Poland, a U.S. Geological Survey volcanologist. “The more stuff you put on the volcano to make measurements, the more you realize there’s stuff going on that you never knew.”

Better technology has also meant U.S. Geological Survey scientists have been able to accurately forecast Kilauea’s behavior as it sputters over Puna, the island’s most affected district.

“They’ve been spot on,” said Janine Krippner, a volcanologist at Concord University in West Virginia. “It’s incredible — they’re looking at things happening below the surface, using the monitoring equipment that they have, the knowledge they have of past eruptions, and have been able to get people to not be in a deadly area.”

This is unfortunately not always possible, as nature can be unpredictable. On June 3, Guatemala’s Volcano of Fire sent a mixture of hot gas, rock and other material racing down its slopes and inundating the valley, killing nearly 100 people.

Krippner compared the Guatemala eruption to opening a can of soda after shaking it vigorously. Volcanic gas underneath created bubbles that expanded, increasing pressure that blew magma apart when it reached the surface, spewing cooled lava rocks ranging from the size of sand grains to boulders.

Explosions can be bigger, or occur differently, than expected, and that presents a learning opportunity for scientists, who work on computer models to map out areas that may be at higher risk in the future. “Looking at the footage afterward, we can start to tease out how these things actually work,” Krippner said, as it’s often too dangerous for experts to physically get close to an eruption.

Volcanic eruptions happen fairly regularly — as many as 60 occur worldwide each year — but many are in isolated areas, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

After Kilauea’s 1924 summit explosions, the volcano entered a decade of piddly rumblings, followed by 18 years of silence. Experts say Kilauea may be heading toward years — even decades — of little or no activity.

For now, volcanologists feel a “tremendous amount of responsibility” to learn as much as possible from the volcano, Poland said. Its latest activity has destroyed about 400 homes — including about 280 over the last several days — and displaced thousands of residents. Lava from Kilauea has also downed power lines and knifed across highways.

“It’s coming at a great cost in terms of impact on the lives and livelihoods of so many people — we owe it to the people of Puna to make sure that we learn the lessons the volcano is teaching us,” Poland said.

US, China Reach Deal to End Sanctions on Telecom Giant ZTE

The U.S. and China have reached a deal to lift sanctions against the giant Chinese ZTE telecommunications company that hobbled the firm when the United States banned the sale of American-made components it needed for its consumer products, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Thursday.

Ross told CNBC the accord will force ZTE, which employs nearly 75,000 workers, to pay a $1 billion fine for violating the U.S. ban on trade with North Korea and Iran, put another $400 million in escrow, and within 30 days replace its entire management and board.

Ross said going forward, the deal imposes the “most strict” compliance on ZTE. He said the penalties should serve as a very strong deterrent for “other potential bad actors” to force compliance with U.S. trade restrictions.

“If they do violate it again, in addition to the billion dollars they are paying us up front, we had them put $400 million in escrow,” he said. “The total deal is $1.4 billion. That money will be forfeited if they violate anything … and we still retain the power to shut them down again.”

ZTE must hire a new compliance team selected by the U.S. Commerce Department for a 10-year term.

“We are literally embedding a compliance department of our choosing into the company to monitor it going forward,” Ross said. “They will pay for those people, but the people will report to the new chairman.”

“This is a pretty strict settlement,” he added. “The strictest and largest settlement fine that has ever been brought by the Commerce Department against any violator of export controls.”

The commerce secretary said he did not think the settlement of the ZTE dispute would have any impact on ongoing contentious trade and tariff talks between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies.

Washington and Beijing have threatened each other with massive new tariffs on up to $150 billion of exports from the two countries, the fallout from the U.S. demand that China buy more American goods to sharply cut last year’s $375 billion Chinese trade surplus with the U.S.

The ZTE agreement was reached after weeks of talks between U.S. and Chinese officials. The dispute stemmed from a U.S. decision to block sales of American-made components ZTE needs to manufacture its products for seven years, until 2025. The agreement calls for a 10-year suspended ban that can be activated if ZTE commits new trade violations.

Most of the world first heard of the dispute over ZTE nearly a month ago following a tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Some U.S. lawmakers, both Republicans and Democrats, balked at Trump’s effort to reach an accord on ZTE, saying that firm was a threat to U.S. national security through intelligence gathering on its devices. But Trump ignored the complaints, pushing Ross to settle the dispute.

Trump’s Solar Tariff Costs US Companies Billions

President Donald Trump’s tariff on imported solar panels has led U.S. renewable energy companies to cancel or freeze investments of more than $2.5 billion in large installation projects, along with thousands of jobs, the developers told Reuters.

That’s more than double the about $1 billion in new spending plans announced by firms building or expanding U.S. solar panel factories to take advantage of the tax on imports.

The tariff’s bifurcated impact on the solar industry underscores how protectionist trade measures almost invariably hurt one or more domestic industries for every one they shield from foreign competition. 

Trump announced the tariff in January over protests from most of the solar industry that the move would chill one of America’s fastest-growing sectors.

​Utility-scale projects

Solar developers completed utility-scale installations costing a total of $6.8 billion last year, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association. Those investments were driven by U.S. tax incentives and the falling costs of imported panels, mostly from China, which together made solar power competitive with natural gas and coal.

The U.S. solar industry employs more than 250,000 people, about three times more than the coal industry, with about 40 percent of those people in installation and 20 percent in manufacturing, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Solar was really on the cusp of being able to completely take off,” said Zoe Hanes, chief executive of Charlotte, North Carolina solar developer Pine Gate Renewables.

Companies with domestic panel factories are divided on the policy. Solar giant SunPower Corp opposes the tariff that will help its U.S. panel factories because it will also hurt its domestic installation and development business, along with its overseas manufacturing operations.

“There could be substantially more employment without a tariff,” said Chief Executive Tom Werner.

​Lost profits, jobs

The 30 percent tariff is scheduled to last four years, decreasing by 5 percent per year during that time. Solar developers say the levy will initially raise the cost of major installations by 10 percent.

Leading utility-scale developer Cypress Creek Renewables LLC said it had been forced to cancel or freeze $1.5 billion in projects, mostly in the Carolinas, Texas and Colorado, because the tariff raised costs beyond the level where it could compete, spokesman Jeff McKay said.

That amounted to about 150 projects at various stages of development that would have employed 3,000 or more workers during installation, he said. The projects accounted for a fifth of the company’s overall pipeline.

Developer Southern Current has made similar decisions on about $1 billion of projects, mainly in South Carolina, said Bret Sowers, the company’s vice president of development and strategy.

“Either you make the decision to default or you bite the bullet and you make less money,” Sowers said.

Neither Cypress Creek nor Southern Current would disclose exactly which projects they intend to cancel. They said those details could help their competitors and make it harder to pursue those projects if they become financially viable later.

Both are among a group of solar developers that have asked trade officials to exclude panels used in their utility-scale projects from the tariffs. The office of the U.S. Trade Representative said it is still evaluating the requests.

Other companies are having similar problems.

Stockpiling panels

For some developers, the tariff has meant abandoning nascent markets in the American heartland that last year posted the strongest growth in installations. That growth was concentrated in states where voters supported Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

South Bend, Indiana-based developer Inovateus Solar LLC, for example, had decided three years ago to focus on emerging Midwest solar markets such as Indiana and Michigan. But the tariff sparked a shift to Massachusetts, where state renewable energy incentives make it more profitable, Chairman T.J. Kanczuzewski said.

Some firms saw the tariff coming and stockpiled panels before Trump’s announcement. For example, 174 Power Global, the development arm of Korea’s Hanwha warehoused 190 megawatts of solar panels at the end of last year for a Texas project that broke ground in January.

The company is paying more for panels for two Nevada projects that start operating this year and next, but is moving forward on construction, according to Larry Greene, who heads the firm’s development in the U.S. West.

‘A lot of robots’

Trump’s tariff has boosted the domestic manufacturing sector as intended, which over time could significantly raise U.S. panel production and reduce prices.

Panel manufacturers First Solar and JinkoSolar , for example, have announced plans to spend $800 million on projects to increase panel construction in the United States since the tariff, creating about 700 new jobs in Ohio and Florida. Last week, Korea’s Hanwha Q CELLS joined them, saying it will open a solar module factory in Georgia next year, though it did not detail job creation.

SunPower Corp, meanwhile, purchased U.S. manufacturer SolarWorld’s Oregon factory after the tariff was announced, saving that facility’s 280 jobs. The company said it plans to hire more people at the plant to expand operations, without specifying how many.

But SunPower has also said it must cut up to 250 jobs in other parts of its organization because of the tariffs.

Jobs in panel manufacturing are also limited because of increasing automation, industry experts said.

Heliene, a Canadian company in the process of opening a U.S. facility capable of producing 150 megawatts worth of panels per year, said it will employ between 130 and 140 workers in Minnesota.

“The factories are highly automated,” said Martin Pochtaruk, president of Heliene. “You don’t employ too many humans. There are a lot of robots.

Blockchain Advances Could Revolutionize Daily Life

As the internet continues to revolutionize communications, the next world-changing technology may already be here. Blockchain, a way of recording data and automatically storing it on computers around the world, has the potential to change everything from collecting crime scene evidence to creating new digital currencies. VOA’s Jill Craig visited a blockchain hackathon in Memphis, Tennessee, to learn more.

NASA Chief: US Will Always Have Astronauts in Orbit

Major changes could be ahead for the International Space Station but there will always be an American astronaut in orbit, NASA’s new boss said Wednesday.

The space agency is talking with private companies about potentially taking over the space lab after 2025, but no decision will made without the other 21 countries that are partners in the project, NASA Administrator James Bridenstine said in his first briefing with reporters.

President Donald Trump’s recent budget requests have put discussions about the station’s future “on steroids,” he said. Under Trump’s 2019 proposed budget, U.S. funding for the space station would end by 2025. The U.S. has spent more than $75 billion on the space station.

Options include splitting the station into different segments or reducing its size by breaking it up and discarding one part.

Always a US astronaut in orbit

But no matter what happens, there won’t be any gap when Americans aren’t in space, Bridenstine vowed. It won’t be as it was after the Apollo moon program closed or even the retirement of the space shuttle fleet, which has forced NASA to pay Russia to ferry astronauts to the station.

“There are kids graduating from high school this month, that their entire lives, we’ve had an astronaut in space,” Bridenstine said. “And we want that to live on in perpetuity forever. No gaps.”

Companies are interested in running the station and “there’s a range of options” that are just now being examined, he said.

The first station piece was launched in 1998. The complex was essentially completed with the end of the shuttle program in 2011. It is about the size of a six-bedroom house, complete with two bathrooms, a gym and a 360-degree bay window. It usually has a crew of six.

Climate change

In wide-ranging remarks, the former Oklahoma Republican congressman said he generally supports NASA’s Earth science missions, including missions that monitor heat-trapping carbon dioxide. He said at least three climate science satellites that the Trump administration had tried to cancel earlier in budget proposals “could all end up in very good shape” and that he supported them in Congress, crossing party lines.

“We’re going forth with missions that are going to do carbon monitoring,” he said, ticking off a couple of projects. “We’re committed to that.”

When told that a Pew Research poll out Wednesday said that 63 percent of Americans said NASA’s top priority should be monitoring key parts of Earth’s climate, Bridenstine said “good” and reiterated his acceptance of human-caused climate change as a threat to national security and the globe.

Back to the moon

Bridenstine also said he hopes NASA will put some kind of small robotic landers on the moon next year, followed at some later date by humans. Astronauts should use the moon as a “proving ground” for future missions to Mars, especially checking out potential health issues for living far away from Earth for a long time. He said he worried about balance, vision, bone loss and heart issues that have been reported with space station astronauts.

“We do not want to go to Mars and have our astronauts to be marshmallows on the surface of Mars,” Bridenstine said. “The moon is our best opportunity to be successful when we go to Mars.”

Emirates Seeks to Lead the Way to Windowless Planes

Passenger jets of the future will be safer, lighter, faster, more fuel-efficient and … windowless.

So predicts Emirates Airlines chief Tim Clark. The Dubai-based airline has already introduced virtual windows in the first-class suites of its newest planes. 

Instead of being able to see out a conventional window, the passengers will be able to enjoy the view on a full display of windows that will project live camera feeds on a high-definition screen. 

Clark said the images are “so good, it’s better than with the natural eye.”

Clark told the BBC that the ultimate goal was to have a completely windowless plane. 

“Now you have a fuselage which has no structural weaknesses because of windows. The aircraft are lighter, the aircraft could fly faster, they’ll burn less fuel and fly higher,” he said.

But Emirates’ experiment has raised concerns that might not win it the votes of safety regulators. Some passengers have expressed concerns of possibly feeling claustrophobic on windowless planes. 

Cambridge Analytica Boss Admits Getting Facebook Data From Researcher

The former head of Cambridge Analytica admitted on Wednesday his firm had received data from the researcher at the center of a scandal over Facebook users’ personal details, contradicting previous testimony to

lawmakers.

Cambridge Analytica, which was hired by Donald Trump in 2016, has denied its work on the U.S. president’s successful election campaign made use of data allegedly improperly harvested from around 87 million Facebook users.

Former chief Alexander Nix, in earlier testimony to parliament’s media committee, also denied the political consultancy had ever been given data by Aleksandr Kogan, the researcher linked to the scandal.

On Wednesday he said it had received data from Kogan.

“Of course, the answer to this question should have been ‘yes,'” Nix said, adding that he thought he was being asked if Cambridge Analytica still held data from the researcher.

He denied deliberately misleading British lawmakers and said the company had deleted the data, which had been of no use.

The committee is investigating fake news, and focusing on the role of Cambridge Analytica and Facebook in the 2016 Brexit vote as well as the Trump election.

In lengthy, and often testy, questioning by lawmakers, Nix apologized for an undercover film in which he said Cambridge Analytica’s online campaign played a decisive role in Trump’s election win.

But he defended the now-defunct consultancy’s reputation and said he felt victimized.

Cambridge Analytica said after the film was broadcast by Channel 4 television in March that the comments did not “represent the values or operations of the firm.”

Lawmakers asked Nix to return to face questions about inconsistencies in his evidence.

Kogan had told lawmakers he did give Cambridge Analytica the data.

Facebook says Kogan harvested it by creating an app on the platform that was downloaded by 270,000 people, providing access not only to their own but also their friends’ personal data.

Facebook said Kogan then violated its policies by passing the data to Cambridge Analytica.

Embarrassed but vindicated

Nix apologized for his comments in the film, saying he had been foolish and had made exaggerated claims in order to attract what he thought was a potential client.

“It’s not only deeply embarrassing, but it’s something I regret enormously,” he said.

Nix said that Channel 4 had heavily edited the footage to portray him in a worse light. “All Mr Nix’s comments carried in our reports were used in context, including any caveats,” the broadcaster said in a statement.

On other matters, Nix was less apologetic.

He said that he was vindicated in saying Cambridge Analytica had not been involved in the Brexit campaign by a report by the Electoral Commission, and that whistleblower Christopher Wylie had lied about the consultancy’s involvement in Brexit.

Wylie had told the committee that Cambridge Analytica played a pivotal role in the campaign.

On Wednesday he told Channel 4: “I actually backed up everything I said with documents. I am quite comfortable standing by the statements that I made.”

Nix denied a story in the Financial Times that he had withdrawn $8 million from Cambridge Analytica before its collapse last month.

Asked about a Guardian report that a Cambridge Analytica employee visited Wikileaks founder Julian Assange in the Ecuadorian embassy in 2017, he said he had been unaware of the meeting.

As Internet of Things Lacks World Market Leader, Focus Turns to Startups

A surge in participation by startup companies this week, at a highlight of Asia’s biggest annual tech event, shows an increased reliance on young entrepreneurs to come with the IT industry’s strongest ideas for connected devices and artificial intelligence.

The InnoVEX segment of Taipei Computex 2018 brought together 388 startups, a term usually defined as founder-owned firms of three to five years old. That number is a jump from 272 at the same event a year ago. Venture capitalists, including at least one with half a billion dollars in investment funds, evaluated them one-on-one and at formal pitching events.

Startups are catching attention as inventors of Internet-of-things technology because there’s no market leader yet, said Jamie Lin, founding partner of AppWorks Ventures, a startup accelerator in Taipei. That technology refers to software and hardware that let computers or phones communicate with everyday devices such as cameras and alarm systems.

Some connections run on artificial intelligence, which means computerized processing of the data collected from those devices. That can mean making human-like decisions.

“Computers continue to morph and there are no dominant players in IoT,” Lin said. “That’s why they need startups and that’s what makes the show relevant.”

In software, by contrast, Google and Microsoft dominate markets worldwide. Apple and Samsung, among others, lead in smartphones.

Coinciding with the tech show this week, Lin’s accelerator, another like it and a Japanese venture capital firm are all holding their own events in Taipei this week for startups.

Expanding market

More than 20 billion things will be connected to the internet by 2020, up from 8.4 billion connected last year, market research firm Gartner forecasts. The number will pick up especially as 5G wireless services speed up connections.

By next year, Gartner anticipates, startup firms working with artificial intelligence will overtake Amazon, Google, Microsoft and IBM in “driving the artificial intelligence economy” for businesses.

Artificial intelligence, also known by its abbreviation AI, will reach a market value of $1.2 trillion per year by 2020 as investment triples between now and then, Forrester Research said.

“There’s a process, which is experimental — error and trial, error and trial – so there’s no one with a ready solution, and AI is so broad that one that can do it all,” said Tracy Tsai, a Gartner research VP in Taipei.

“With AI startups, they say ‘I’m focused, I just do some part of it and I do it well, and I do it attentively,’” she said. “For companies looking for a full solution, if you can show your part works, then they use it.”

Venture capitalists watching

Venture capital firms at the three-day InnoVEX show Wednesday watched a spread of mostly Asian startups with software and hardware ideas focused largely on connected devices. Healthcare and the management of drones were among the fields that companies said they could help with AI.

The show offered chances for startups to pitch their ideas to venture capital firms and accelerators, which are programs that show young firms how to improve their businesses.

Startup promotion authorities from 13 countries, including France and the Netherlands, also scanned the exhibition hall for Asian firms that might complement their own.

“What we care about the most is whether these startups or smaller firms have technology, so if it’s a just a business model only, they aren’t suitable for us,” said Amanda Liu, CEO of the Taiwan government-backed business accelerator StarFab. Her accelerator takes 10 to 15 of every 100 applicants. “They need to have products and their core competence must come from technology.”

Taiwanese firms are good at altering hardware specs, Liu said, and for technology ideal for businesses rather than individual consumers, Liu said. Taiwan positioned itself decades ago as a high-tech hardware manufacturing hub for much of the world.

Qara was one AI-dependent startup at InnoVEX. The 4-year-old South Korean developer with $1 million in venture capital funding uses an AI algorithm to predict the movement of stock and cryptocurrency markets. It has earned revenues of $1.5 million and reports a profit.

“Anyone can see the predictions powered by AI,” said Qara’s global CEO Katie Bomi Son. In terms of accuracy, she said, “Some are from 70, or between 70 to 90. Most of our information [comes] from the machine.”

Qara counts mostly companies as clients but it’s looking for a way to monetize the free app for common users.

France, Germany, UK Seek Exemption From US Iran Sanctions

Britain, France and Germany have joined forces to urge the United States to exempt European companies from any sanctions the U.S. will slap on Iran after pulling out of an international nuclear agreement.

In a letter dated Monday to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, ministers from the three European countries said they “strongly regret” President Donald Trump’s decision last month to withdraw from the Iran deal. Trump has said sanctions will be imposed on any company doing business with Tehran.

 

The three European countries were also signatories of the 2015 deal, which was meant to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

 

In their letter, made public on Wednesday, the ministers said that “as close allies we expect that the extraterritorial effects of U.S. secondary sanctions will not be enforced on EU entities and individuals, and the United States will thus respect our political decision and the good faith of economic operators within EU legal territory.”

 

The ministers, which included British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and his German counterpart Olaf Scholz, said they want the U.S. to “grant exemptions” for EU companies that have been doing business with Iran since the deal came into force in 2016. They also said Iran should not be cut out of the SWIFT system for international money transfers.

 

Many companies from Europe and the U.S. have been steadily building up their investments in Iran in the past few years in the wake of the nuclear deal, particularly in the fields of pharmaceuticals, banking and oil.

 

France’s Le Maire tweeted Wednesday that EU “businesses must be able to pursue their activities.”

 

 

Facebook Acknowledges Data-Sharing Pact with Chinese Companies

Facebook has admitted that it had a data sharing agreement with four Chinese technology companies, including one considered a national security threat by the U.S. intelligence community, raising new concerns about the social media giant’s handling of its consumer’s personal information.

The admission by the U.S.-based social media giant Tuesday came two days after The New York Times revealed that Facebook had struck special data-sharing deals with as many as 60 device makers, including Huawei, Lenovo, OPPO and TCL, to make it easier for Facebook users to access their accounts on a wide array of devices.

U.S. intelligence officials have raised concerns for years about Huawei, fearing the Chinese government could demand access to data stored on their devices or servers. The concerns prompted the U.S. military to ban the sale of Huawei smartphones on its bases.

Francisco Varela, Facebook’s vice president of mobile partnerships, said Tuesday that the data sharing deals with Huawei and the other Chinese companies “were controlled from the get-go.”

Facebook has been under intense criticism after it was disclosed that tens of millions of users’ personal information was accessed by the British-based political consultancy firm Cambridge Analytica. The company has also been under fire after revealing in September that Russians, using fake names, used social media to try to influence voters ahead of the 2016 U.S. election.

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether Facebook violated a 2011 consent agreement over a previous ruling that found Facebook had misled consumers over its data-use policies.

 

Google Leading Computer Training in Vietnam

In and around the Mekong Delta, school children will spend this summer moving rainbow-colored blocks and cartoon animals around a screen to get an early taste of computers in a program backed by Google.

The tech company is paying for Vietnamese students to learn some introductory programming, along the way perhaps earning some goodwill from Vietnamese officials who are taking an increasingly strict view toward global internet firms.

The Mekong Community Development Center will run the classes, which make use of Scratch, a very basic computer language that lets children create their own virtual games.

“To support Vietnam’s development in the direction of the Industrial Revolution 4.0 in the most effective and practical way, Google is focused on developing projects to build and raise awareness and capacity in information technology in Vietnam,” said Ha Lam Tu Quynh, who is the director of communications and public relations in charge of Vietnam at Google Asia Pacific. “We believe children in particular will be the best creators of the future.”

She was referring to a tech revolution that has been a buzz word around the Communist country, encompassing all kinds of new tech, from the internet of things, to big data analysis.

Google, which did not disclose how much it is spending, is far from alone in stressing its corporate social responsibility, allowing firms to do good or look good, or both. It would not hurt to earn some goodwill with Vietnam, which has been overhauling its legislative and regulatory system in a way that has not always gone over well with tech companies. 

Last year the Southeast Asian country pressed local advertisers to boycott Facebook and Google’s YouTube because they had permitted content critical of the state. In a more recent example, the National Assembly is debating a draft law on cyber security that would require businesses to store data inside the borders and delete online information that is deemed objectionable.

The U.S. embassy in Hanoi expressed “concerns about Vietnam’s proposed cyber security law, including the impact of localization requirements and restrictions on cross-border services for the future development and growth of Vietnam’s economy.”

Also contributing to the child-friendly computer lessons, with laptops and technical support, is the Dariu Foundation, which focuses on micro-finance and education for low-income people in Vietnam, Myanmar, and India. Nguyen Van Hanh, the director of the Dariu Foundation, noted that roughly 65 percent of those now in primary school will be doing jobs someday that do not exist right now, citing data from the World Economic Forum.

“With all of the economic and social changes brought on by technology, we do not know exactly the kind of skills children will need in order to develop and become citizens who contribute positively to the world in the future through work,” he said in discussing his group’s participation in the Scratch classes. “However, we can be sure that today’s children need to be equipped with many skills to adapt to the challenges and the requirements of the digital era.”

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology invented the simple Scratch language so that computer programming would be more widely accessible. First-time programmers do not type dense lines of code, but rather use logic to design things like animation and games, dragging colorful objects and command labels around the software interface. Even an 8-year-old can do it, and in fact they do.

So will 1,200 public school students in the Vietnamese metropolis of Ho Chi Minh City and the nearby delta provinces of Vinh Long and Tien Giang.

The initiative “Programming the Future with Google,” also includes digital training for 30 local school teachers, will run from now through August.

N. Korea Denuclearization Could Cost $20 Billion

Arms control experts estimate that the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program could take a decade to complete, and cost $20 billion, if a nuclear agreement is reached between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un when they meet in Singapore on June 12.

“The hard work has not yet begun, and it is gong to take sustained energy on the part of the United States, South Korea, Japan, China and North Korea. It’s going to be a multiyear long process,” said Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington.

President Trump has said he expects a “very positive result” from the North Korea nuclear summit, but he also said it will likely be the beginning of a process to resolve differences over the extent of the North’s denuclearization, and the specifics regarding what sanctions relief, economic aid and security guarantees would be offered in return.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Sunday that North Korea would only receive sanctions relief after it takes “verifiable and irreversible steps to denuclearization.”

This position aligns closer to the Kim government’s stance that denuclearization measures and concessions be matched action for action. And it backs away from demands made by some in the president’s national security team that Pyongyang quickly and unilaterally dismantle all its weapons of mass destruction before any concessions would be offered.

Nuclear costs

North Korea is estimated to have 20 to 80 nuclear warheads, both known and covert nuclear research and processing sites, and thousands of ballistic missiles that can be launched from mobile vehicles, and submarine based launchers have been tested in recent years.

With such an extensive nuclear arsenal it could cost $20 billion to achieve the U.S. goal of complete, irreversible, and verifiable nuclear dismantlement (CVID), according to a recent study conducted by Kwon Hyuk-chul, a Kookmin University professor of security strategy.

Kwon based his assessment in part on past nuclear deals with North Korea and Ukraine’s experience in dismantling its nuclear arsenal after the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. 

“In the process of the nuclear dismantlement of Ukraine, all of the strategic nuclear warheads that Ukraine possessed were transferred to Russia and were dismantled there. In doing so, the United States provided large-scale containers and technical support to assist with safe dismantling,” said Kwon.

The Kookmin University study estimates it would costs $5 billion to dismantle the North’s nuclear arsenal and supporting facilities. Another $5 billion, Kwon said, would be needed to fulfill a U.S. pledge, made as part of a 1994 nuclear agreement with North Korea, to build two light water reactors to generate electrical power.

Another $10 billion in economic aid would be needed both as incentives to convince the leadership to give up its nuclear deterrent and to help transition the over 3,000 to 10,000 nuclear workers into peacetime professions.

President Trump recently said he does not expect the U.S. to provide any government aid but could offer American private investment if North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons. Instead he said the Kim government should look to South Korea and China for any direct economic assistance.

Denuclearization roadmap

A recent Stanford University report estimates it would take over 10 years to permanently dismantle the North’s nuclear program.

Stanford nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker, who visited North Korea in the past to assess the country’s plutonium program, Robert Carlin, a former CIA Korea analyst, and researcher Elliot Serbin, conducted the detailed study of the North’s nuclear program.

The researchers listed specific categories that must be verified by outside inspectors including; nuclear fissile material of plutonium, tritium for fusion Hydrogen bombs, enriched uranium, nuclear reactors, centrifuge facilities, long and medium and short range missiles, test engines, and space launch vehicles.

The authors proposed a three-phase denuclearization process that would halt or limit further activity in the first year, roll back or dismantle over five years, and permanently eliminate North Korea’s nuclear capabilities in 10 years.

Lee Yoon-jee in Seoul contributed to this report.