Month: November 2017

California Asks US for $7.4 Billion for Wildfire Rebuilding

California Gov. Jerry Brown and lawmakers asked the U.S. government Friday for $7.4 billion to help rebuild after a cluster of fires tore through the heart of wine country, killing more than 40 people and leaving thousands without housing.

 

In a letter to the White House, Brown joined California’s U.S. senators and 39 members of its congressional delegation to urge President Donald Trump and Congress to quickly adopt a disaster-related appropriations measure to support the state’s recovery.

 

Brown said the funding would go toward cleanup and programs to support housing, transportation, agriculture, environmental protection and other services for those affected by the fires.

A series of blazes that started in Northern California the night of Oct. 8 killed at least 43 people and destroyed about 8,900 homes and other buildings. At the peak, thousands of firefighters battled 21 blazes that burned simultaneously.

Officials have not yet assessed all the damage and effects of the fires, but the governor’s office and the affected counties determined that $7.4 billion in federal funding is needed to help California recover, the letter says.

 

The wildfires significantly damaged farmland, rangeland and watersheds, and more than a third of the funding requested, $3.1 billion, would go toward helping agricultural industries bounce back, including affected wineries, California officials said.

 

“The full economic impact to the agricultural, tourism, hospitality, and wine industries is still not known,” the letter says. “Nine California wineries were destroyed and 21 were damaged in the nation’s most prominent winemaking region.”

Congress last month approved $576.5 million in aid for wildfires earlier this summer in California and the U.S. West. It also has approved billions in relief funding to help states affected by hurricanes and other weather-related disasters this year.

 

Trump pledged aid for California fire victims on Oct. 10, saying he had told Brown that “the federal government will stand with the people of California.”

 

Brown said he has asked the California Department of Finance to expedite doling out $41.5 million to support the immediate needs of victims not eligible for federal aid.

During the wildfires last month, Brown declared a state of emergency for the Northern California counties of Solano, Napa, Sonoma, Yuba, Butte, Lake, Mendocino and Nevada as well as Orange County in the south.

Largest US Port Complex Passes Plan to Reach Zero Emissions

The largest port complex in the nation has set goals to drastically reduce air pollution over the next several decades.

The plan approved Thursday at a meeting of the governing boards of the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach outlines strategies for improving equipment and efficiency to eventually move cargo with zero emissions.

The ports estimate that the cost of the efforts ranges from $7 billion to $14 billion, but the plan does not make clear who will pick up the tab. And detailed plans for implementing each program will require approval by each port’s harbor commission.

“Collaboration will be critical to our success,” Long Beach Harbor Commission President Lou Anne Bynum said in a statement. “Moving the needle to zero requires all of us — the ports, industry, regulatory agencies, environmental groups and our communities — to pool our energy, expertise and resources.”

The plan has raised concerns that the enormous cost of the clean air goals could make the two ports less attractive in the face of competition from ports on the East and Gulf coasts.

The Los Angeles Times reported that Pacific Merchant Shipping Association President John McLaurin told commissioners he feared the cost “and its potential negative impacts on port competitiveness and the one in nine jobs in the Southern California region that are reliant on the ports.”

Largest pollution source

The neighboring ports 20 miles south of downtown Los Angeles are the single largest fixed source of air pollution in Southern California, according to the South Coast Air Quality Management District.

Main points of the plan include clean-engine milestones for trucks, creating incentives to speed up fleet turnover to near-zero and zero-emission trucks, and efficiency programs for truck reservations and staging yards. The timeline for achieving a zero-emission truck fleet is 2035.

Other elements include requiring terminal operators to use zero-emission equipment by 2020, if possible, or the cleanest available equipment.

The plan also pursues electrification of terminal equipment and expands on-dock rail, with a goal of moving 50 percent of all cargo out of the ports by train.

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach sprawl over more than 23 square miles (60 square kilometers) of land and water. They handle about 40 percent of U.S. container import traffic, about 25 percent of total exports, and together rank as the ninth-largest port complex in the world, according to the ports.

Nigeria Militants End Oil Hub Cease-fire

A Nigerian militant group whose attacks on energy facilities in the Niger Delta last year helped push Africa’s biggest economy into recession said Friday that it had ended its cease-fire.

The Niger Delta Avengers announced a halt to hostilities in August 2016, although they carried out attacks in October and November last year.

“Niger Delta Avenger’s cease-fire on Operation Red Economy is officially over,” the group said on its website.

“Our next line of operation will not be like the 2016 campaign, which we operated successfully without any casualties; this outing will be brutish, brutal and bloody,” it said in a section of its statement addressed to oil companies.

The move threatens Nigeria’s fragile economic growth and poses a further security challenge for President Muhammadu Buhari, in addition to the jihadist Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast and rising secessionist sentiments in the southeast.

The government has been in talks for more than a year to address grievances over poverty and oil pollution, but local groups have complained that no progress has been made, despite Buhari’s receiving a list of demands at a meeting last November.

Buhari’s office did not immediately comment.

The 2016 attacks cut oil production from a peak of 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) to near 1 mbpd, the lowest level in Africa’s top oil producer for at least 30 years.

Result was recession

The attacks, combined with low oil prices, caused the OPEC member’s first recession in 25 years. Crude sales make up two-thirds of government revenue and most of its foreign exchange. Nigeria came out of recession in the second quarter of this year, mostly because of the rise in oil production after attacks stopped and as prices strengthened.

The Niger Delta Avengers, who say they want a greater share of Nigeria’s energy wealth to go to the impoverished swampland region, said they decided to end the cease-fire because they had “lost faith” in local leaders.

“We can assure you that every oil installation in our region will feel the warmth of the wrath of the Niger Delta Avengers,” it said.

There have been no substantial attacks in the region since January.

Eric Omare, president of the Ijaw Youth Council, which represents the largest ethnic group in the Niger Delta, said the government had paid only “lip service” to communities’ concerns.

“The truth is that the federal government has not demonstrated any seriousness towards addressing the issues that led to the Niger Delta agitation,” Omare said, while adding that his group sought a “peaceful dialogue.”

Nigeria’s economy grew 0.55 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, largely on higher oil receipts.

The World Bank cut its 2017 growth forecast in October to 1 percent from 1.2 percent, as the oil production increase was lower than expected and non-oil sector growth was subdued.

New US Report on Climate Change Offers Dire Warnings

The U.S. government on Friday released a report on climate change that said there was “no convincing alternative explanation” for global warming besides human causes.

The National Climate Assessment, which the government is mandated by law to publish every four years, said climate change was being driven almost entirely driven by human action. It warned that sea levels could rise by as much as 8 feet by the year 2100. It listed a number of damaging developments across the United States that it attributed to the rise of global temperature by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900.

It said the U.S. was already experiencing increasing temperatures, precipitation levels and numbers of wildfires; that more than 25 U.S. coastal cities were already experiencing flooding; and that there was  no precedent in history with which these meteorological changes could be compared.

But, it said, there is “very high confidence” that the rate of climate change will depend on the amount of greenhouse gases released globally over the next few decades.

The report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, an interagency unit that coordinates and integrates research on environmental changes, runs counter to the position on climate change taken by the current U.S administration, including that of the head of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Trump, Perry, Pruitt have doubts

President Donald Trump, Energy Secretary Rick Perry and EPA head Scott Pruitt have all questioned how much human activity has contributed to climate change. The president has announced the United States will leave the Paris climate agreement that would obligate the U.S. to cut its overall greenhouse gas emissions by at least 26 percent by 2025, compared with 2005 levels.

One of the study authors, climate scientist Robert Kopp of Rutgers University, told The Washington Post he thought the report was “basically the most comprehensive climate science report in the world right now.”

In response to Friday’s release, White House principal deputy press secretary Raj Shah noted a line in the report that said there was “uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to emissions. The climate has changed and is always changing.”

Venezuela Calls Creditors to Debt Talks

Venezuela’s cash-strapped government invited creditors to a Nov. 13 meeting in Caracas on Friday, after announcing plans to potentially restructure some $60 billion in bonds that sent the OPEC nation’s debt prices plunging.

President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday vowed to make a $1.2 billion bond payment but said future payments would be refinanced. Investors were unsure about what he meant, because U.S. sanctions has taken refinancing off the table.

Many saw the announcement as paving the way for default – despite Venezuela’s promises to the contrary – because the debt burden has left the country desperately short of basic goods such as food and medicines.

A default could create a sovereign debt crisis of a scale not seen in Latin America since the massive 2001 default in Argentina that shut it out of markets for years.

Investors say a newly created debt negotiation commission has little chance of making progress, in part because it is headed by Vice President Tareck El Aissami – who is blacklisted by the United States for alleged drug dealing.

“This commission will lay the groundwork for true and transparent dialogue between the government and bondholders,” El Aissami, who has no known experience in debt negotiations, said in a televised address.

Investors were bewildered that Maduro, who narrowly won election in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chavez, appeared to be opening the door to default immediately after authorizing more than $2 billion to bond payments.

Market wisdom had been that Venezuela would not make such payments if it expected to end up in default. It will need those funds because it will be locked out of financial markets.

“Nobody has ever paid a bond in full only to announce default the next day,” said an executive from one local brokerage, who asked not to be identified.

In addition to outstanding bonds, Venezuela owes some $26 billion to bilateral and multilateral creditors and $24 billion in commercial loans, according to New York-based Torino Capital.

It put the total public sector debt at $152 billion, though Maduro’s announcement appeared to be focused primarily on bonds.

The government and PDVSA owe some $1.6 billion in bond service and delayed bond interest payments by the end of the year, plus another $9 billion in bond servicing throughout 2018.

‘Zero Possibility’

U.S. President Donald Trump, accusing Maduro of dictatorship, barred U.S. banks from participating in or negotiating new Venezuelan debt deals. That rules out swap operations, which allow investors to voluntarily exchange near-term debt for new securities that mature later.

Restructuring – which generally follows a default – refers to an involuntary arrangement under which creditors agree to change payment conditions. But they usually do so only in exchange for major economic reforms, which Maduro has balked at.

“A restructuring has a very close to zero possibility given U.S. sanctions, time constraints given the payment schedule, and the fact that Venezuela obviously does not have the technical capacity to negotiate,” said Jim Barrineau, co-head of emerging market debt at Schroders.

The International Monetary Fund issued a warning to Venezuela on Friday for failing to provide it with economic data on time and gave it six months to address the problem. The IMF could issue a “declaration of censure” for non-compliance, two sources told Reuters.

Although the IMF’s warning is unrelated to Maduro’s announcement, it added to investor worries about the economy.

Venezuelan bond prices took a beating on Friday.

Near-term maturities were hardest hit. The PDVSA 2021 bond dropped 20 percentage points to a bid price of 27 points.

Longer-dated bonds fared better, with PDVSA’s 2027 bond slipping 4.83 points to bid 25.13. Venezuela’s 2018 bond was down 31 points.

Investors holding longer-dated paper generally expect a default will take place well before maturity, while the profitability of short-term bets is more dependent on the bonds being paid off.

Bank of America on Friday estimated that bond prices would drop to around 20 cents on the dollar if a default took place.

There was no immediate impact on oil exports and production from Maduro’s announcement.

EMTA, a trade association that sets practices for emerging markets, recommended that Venezuelan bonds not under U.S. sanctions continue trading with accrued interest – a sign Venezuela is for now expected to keep up with its payments.

The Washington-based International Institute of Finance (IIF) held an investor call for bondholders in the event talks with the government go ahead, according to two market sources who participated in the call.

Most were not planning to go to Caracas, the sources said. IIF declined to comment.

‘Nobody Trusts His Government’

Leaders of the opposition-led National Assembly said on Friday that any restructuring would be invalid without congressional approval.

“Maduro won’t be able to restructure the debt because nobody in the world trusts his government,” National Assembly head Julio Borges said.

Though there is widespread public disquiet at economic hardship, the opposition coalition is cracking after a disastrous showing at last month’s gubernatorial elections, and there is speculation Maduro may bring forward the presidential vote, which had been expected for the end of 2018.

Vice President El Aissami said a $1.2 billion payment on PDVSA’s 2017N bond that matured on Thursday had already been transferred. The Central Bank’s website showed a drop of $430 million in international reserves, signaling the government may have dipped into reserves to pay the PDVSA bond.

That pushed reserves to $9.7 billion, their lowest level in at least 20 years.

The company spent days trying to make payment on its 2020 bond, which finance industry sources attributed to nervousness by bank officials over possible U.S. sanctions violations.

Principal payments on the two bonds were moving through the clearing system without a problem, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday.

The next hard payment deadline for PDVSA is an $81 million bond payment that was due on Oct. 12 but on which the company delayed payment under a 30-day grace period. Failing to pay that on time would trigger a PDVSA default, investors say.

That would expose Venezuela and PDVSA to lawsuits by creditors seeking to seize assets such as refineries in the United States.

France’s Macron Targets Apprentices in Labor Market Shake-up

In a warehouse outside Paris, university drop-out Celine Galland stacks  palettes and fills out an inventory sheet, part of a logistics apprenticeship she hopes will put a decade of short-term contracts and unemployment behind her.

France’s jobless rate has sat stubbornly above 9 percent for nearly a decade. President Emmanuel Macron blames a notoriously rigid labor market and has two ideas to change it: more vocational training for school leavers and making it easier for workers to retrain and change jobs.

On Nov. 10, his government will open talks with unions, business leaders and the regions on how to reform the apprentice system, cutting through its bureaucracy and financing.

The former investment banker promises an extra 15 billion euros ($17 billion) for professional training over five years, but beyond the money he will need to counter public prejudice if he is to reverse a slide in apprentice numbers.

University did not sit well with Galland, who quit after several weeks. Since then the 31-year-old has worked at menial jobs in McDonald’s and local supermarkets.

“What I love about this is the variety of tasks,” she enthused last week at an AFTRAL logistics and transport training centre in Savigny-le-Temple, east of Paris. “There’s no boredom in this job.”

France’s unemployment rate is more than double Britain’s and several points higher than Germany’s. Particularly troubling for Macron’s centrist government is youth unemployment — nearly one in four 15-24 year olds are without a job, according to official data, a major drag on long-term growth.

Macron has already defied union-led street protests to loosen labor laws, necessary he says to make hiring and firing workers cheaper and easier for small companies.

Leftist opponents and hardline trade unions accuse him of abandoning France’s long-cherished ideals of an egalitarian society to side instead with corporate interests.

But the 39-year-old president is standing firm. He promises greater support for workers through an overhaul of training and a revamped welfare system, pointing to the Nordic model of flexibility in the labor market underpinned by security through the social welfare system.

He will, though, need to overturn a widely-held perception that apprenticeships are a poor alternative to school and university diplomas, which France obsesses over.

“We have to put an end to French defeatism, to people saying that apprenticeships are for those who have failed,” Macron said this month while visiting a college.

Decline in apprenticeships

France’s existing apprenticeship system involves the signing of a contract between the apprentice, the employer and the training institution. Students earn a percentage of the minimum wage and gain workplace experience, while companies can source talent and receive welfare payment waivers.

France lags behind numerous European peers. OECD data from 2016 shows 4.9 percent of French youths aged between 16 and 29 completed apprenticeships in 2012, compared with 8.6 percent in Denmark and 15.1 percent in Germany.

As a recovery in the euro zone’s second biggest economy gathers strength, employers complain they cannot fill vacancies despite the near double-digit jobless rate because of a skills gap — a mismatch Macron says apprenticeships can help fix.

“Our figures have shown a clear trend for several years: 80-95 percent of our apprentices are in jobs within six months of finishing,” said Pierre de Surone, director of the Savigny-Le-Temple training center. “Apprenticeship works!”

While the number of higher education apprentices is rising, the number of youngsters gaining college-level apprenticeship diplomas fell to 260,000 in 2016 from 335,000 a decade ago, Education Ministry data shows.

That presents a challenge for Macron. Data published by Cereq, a French government think-tank, shows apprenticeships boost the employability of individuals with low academic qualifications more than for those at higher education grade.

“We don’t value practical jobs, technical jobs. If we don’t give recognition to these jobs then we’re in trouble,” said Gabriel Schumacher, director at a local distribution company.

 

UNICEF: Malnutrition Rates Soar Among Rohingya Refugee Children

Life-threatening malnutrition rates are soaring among the children of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, who fled Myanmar to escape violence, according to a nutritional assessment by the U.N. children’s fund.

The recently conducted survey in the Kutupalong refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar shows 7.5 percent of Rohingya refugee children suffer from severe acute malnutrition. UNICEF says this is at least two times higher than what was seen among the children in May — about four months before the mass exodus of Rohingya from Myanmar’s northern Rakhine state began. 

UNICEF spokesman Christophe Boulierac says children with severe malnutrition risk dying from the preventable, treatable condition.

“Malnutrition rates among children in northern Rakhine were already above emergency thresholds,” Boulierac said. “The condition of these children has further deteriorated due to the long journey across the border and the conditions in the camps.” 

More than 600,000 Rohingya have fled violence and persecution in Myanmar since August 25. Approximately 25,000 live in the Kutupalong camp, where the nutritional assessment was carried out. UNICEF says the refugees face an acute shortage of food and water. That problem, coupled with the unsanitary conditions, is giving rise to high rates of diarrhea, respiratory infections and other ailments.

Boulierac says more than 2,000 acutely malnourished children are being treated by UNICEF and partners at 15 centers. He tells VOA more treatment centers are being set up, but not fast enough to help some 17,000 other youngsters in need of specialized nutritional feeding.

Afghanistan Blocks Social Media Services

Authorities in Afghanistan are temporarily blocking WhatsApp and Telegram social media services in the country, citing security concerns, officials confirmed Friday.

An official at the Afghan Telecommunications Regulatory Authority, ATRA, told VOA the social media tools will be suspended for 20 days. The decision follows a request from state security institutions.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a formal announcement is expected Saturday.

ATRA has ordered telecom companies to shut down the services November 1, according to a copy of official instructions appearing in Afghan media.

Social media users have complained of technical problems while using the two services in recent days.

The controversial move has sparked criticism of the Afghan government, and it is being slammed as an illegal act and an attack on freedom of expression.

The outage prompted the telecom regulator to issue a statement Friday, saying the ban is meant to test “a new kind of technology” in the wake of users’ complaints.

It went on to defend the restriction, saying WhatsApp and Telegram are merely voice and messaging services and their temporary suspension does not violate the civil rights of Afghans. The government is committed to freedom of expression, the ministry added.

Afghan journalists and activists on Twitter dismissed the statement.

“This seems to be the beginning of government censorship. If it’s not resisted soon the gov’t will block FB & twitter,” wrote Habib Khan Totakhil on Twitter.

“Gov’t fails to deliver security, now it seeks to hide its incompetence by imposing ban on messaging platforms. Totalitarianism?,” said the Afghan journalist.

“#Censorship is against what freedom we stood for in #Afghanistan post 2001. Gains shouldn’t go to waste,” tweeted activist Nasrat Khalid.

An estimated 6 million people in war-torn Afghanistan can access internet-based services. The growth of media and social media activism have been among the few success stories Afghanistan has seen in the post-Taliban era.

Classifying numbers

The restrictions on social media come as the Taliban intensifies attacks on Afghan security forces, inflicting heavy casualties.

The insurgent group also relies heavily on WhatsApp, Telegram, Twitter and Facebook to publicize its battlefield gains.

The Afghan government has lately barred the United States military from releasing casualty numbers, force strength, operation readiness, attrition figures and performance assessments of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.

The U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, John Sopko, while briefing members of Congress on Wednesday, severely criticized the classification move. He maintained American taxpayers have a right to know how their money is being spent.

“The Taliban know this [Afghan casualties], they know who was killed. They know all about that. The Afghans know about it, the U.S. military knows about it. The only people who wouldn’t know are the [American] people who are paying for it,” Sopko noted.

The United States has spent nearly $120 billion on reconstruction programs in Afghanistan since 2002. More than 60 percent of the money has been used to build Afghan security forces.

Bangladesh Expands Family Planning in Rohingya Camps

With ever-dwindling space and resources available in overburdened Rohingya refugee camps in southern Bangladesh, the government in Dhaka is boosting family planning measures and considering a voluntary sterilization plan.

The efforts include hiring more staff, distributing birth control pills and handing out condoms, a senior official told VOA.

“We have reorganized our operations in our seven camps meant for Rohingya. [Before] we had only 40 staff and now we have hired 160 others from different places to speed up our activities,” said Pintu Kanti Bhattacharjee, the head of the family planning department in Cox’s Bazar district, where the camps are located just across the border from Myanmar.

“We have distributed 3,000 strips of oral pills and 3,900 women have been given birth control injections in September and October. Only 1,000 condoms have been distributed at the same time. We are providing free of cost. At the same time, our staff is continuing family planning related counseling,” Pintu said.

Hundreds of thousands

More than 600,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled Myanmar since attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army in August prompted a brutal crackdown that has revived discussions of targeted U.S. sanctions less than two years into the civilian administration of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Many arrive in camps that have existed for more than two decades, and the surge has put pressure on aid agencies to respond to the growing humanitarian crisis.

It has also strained resources within Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries on earth. Even though the country has welcomed refugees, it insists Myanmar take them back.

Voluntary sterilization

The growing concerns over the lack of resources have led to a proposal to introduce voluntary sterilization, which exists as an option for Bangladeshi nationals, into the camps.

The government is considering the idea, which would provide voluntary vasectomies for men and tubectomies for women, but it has not been approved yet.

It’s possible that the various family planning measures could conflict with more conservative cultural and religious beliefs among refugees. Islam does not explicitly forbid birth control but views in the camps are somewhat mixed on the idea.

Religious teacher Aminul Islam said there is nothing wrong with any method if it protects a woman’s health, but that permanent birth control procedures conflict with the faith.

But Hafez Abdul Wahab, 42, who came to Bangladesh 27 years ago and is a registered refugee in the Kutupalang camp, is not as certain.

He and his wife have 10 children and are expecting another. They are open to new options after the next birth.

“The birth control process is difficult so we prefer to go without it. But now I am thinking we will try any process after the last child is born,” he said.

Family planning sensitive topic

Family planning is also a sensitive subject for persecuted Rohingya communities. Buddhist nationalists within Myanmar advocated for a “Population Control” bill that many saw as aimed at the Muslim minority.

The bill, which was passed in 2015 but seems to have not been enforced, requires 36-month spacing between births.

The Rohingya crisis has impacted tens of thousands of children who have had to leave their homes, and some of them showed up in Bangladesh missing one or both parents.

UNICEF says there are 958 unaccompanied children in the camps, 1,968 unaccompanied minors, and 5,009 children who are separated from their parents.

Myanmar says it will take back refugees who fled to Bangladesh under a citizenship verification process, but the process has yet to resume in earnest.

De facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi made her first visit to the conflict-torn area of northern Rakhine State on Thursday in her capacity as the chairperson of the Union Enterprise for Humanitarian Assistance, Resettlement and Development in Rakhine Committee, which was set up last month in response to the crisis.

The country has faced mounting criticism from the international community and the United States, where members of Congress have proposed a new round of sanctions, many of which were lifted after Myanmar’s peaceful 2015 election that brought Aung San Suu Kyi to power after decades of military rule.

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is expected to visit Myanmar on Nov. 15.

China Disputes Trump’s ‘Flood’ of Fentanyl Claim

A Chinese official on Friday disputed President Donald Trump’s claim that the deadly opioid fentanyl flooding the U.S. is mostly produced in China.

China doesn’t deny that some fentanyl produced illicitly inside the country is contributing to the epidemic, Wei Xiaojun, deputy director-general of the Narcotics Control Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, said at a news conference.

However, according to the intelligence the two countries have exchanged, “the evidence isn’t sufficient to say that the majority of fentanyl or other new psychoactive substances come from China,” Wei said.

Trump, Xi to talk

Trump last month said the U.S. was stepping up measures to “hold back the flood of cheap and deadly fentanyl, a synthetic opioid manufactured in China and 50 times stronger than heroin.”

He said he would mention it to Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week. “And he will do something about it,” Trump said.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration’s representative in Beijing, Lance Ho, declined to comment on Wei’s assessment.

Wei also said the Justice Department’s public announcement last month of indictments against two Chinese men accused of making tons of fentanyl and other powerful narcotics sold in the U.S. could impede efforts to bring them to justice.

“I have to admit regret regarding the U.S. move to unilaterally use the method of calling a news conference to announce the matter of these two wanted individuals who’ve fled to China,” he said.

​US, China cooperation

The release of information would “impact on the ongoing joint investigation into the case,” Wei said, adding that China noted the U.S. failure to mention their successful cooperation on this and other cases.

The Justice Department said Xiaobing Yan, 40, and Jian Zhang, 38, worked separately but similarly and controlled one of the most prolific international drug-trafficking organizations. The lack of an extradition treaty significantly reduces the chances they will be returned to the U.S. for trial.

The Trump administration’s anti-drug efforts suffered another recent setback when its nominee as drug czar withdrew from consideration following reports that he played a key role in weakening the federal government’s authority to stop companies from distributing opioids.

Trump last week declared opioid abuse a national public health emergency and announced new steps to combat the crisis.

Fentanyl can be lethal even in small amounts and is often laced with other dangerous drugs. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the drug and its analogues killed more than 20,000 Americans last year, and the number is rising.

Friday’s rare news conference, held in the Ministry of Public Security’s tightly guarded compound near Tiananmen Square, appeared aimed at emphasizing China’s progress on cooperation with the U.S. on fighting opioids ahead of Trump’s visit.

China has noted Trump’s announcement of an opioid crisis and “China attaches great importance to this,” Wei said.

More Children Surviving to Age 5

In the past 25 years, the world has made remarkable progress in saving the lives of young children, according to the latest report from the United Nations.

In 1990, 35,000 children died every day; last year, 15,000 children and babies died daily, the first time that annual child deaths have fallen below the 6 million mark. But most of these deaths could have been prevented, according to a U.N. interagency group that put together this year’s report on child mortality.

Dr. Flavia Bustreo of the World Health Organization acknowledged the effort it has taken to get to this point. But while the progress is good, it is not enough, she said.

“I need to stress these deaths can be prevented. With the scientific knowledge we have, with the interventions we have, with the resources that we have available, these deaths can be prevented,” said Bustreo, WHO assistant director-general for family, women’s and children’s health.

And that is the tragedy that coincides with this achievement. The report on child and infant mortality states that every year, millions of children younger than 5 die, mostly from malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea. The last two are related to unsanitary conditions.

​Malnutrition plays a part

In almost half of these cases, malnutrition weakens the immune system, leaving the child unable to fight off the disease.

Bustreo said access to clean water and exclusive breastfeeding in the first six months of life can reduce an infant’s risk of infection.

Although more children are living to their fifth birthday, Bustreo says the U.N. report shows that 46 percent of child deaths occur shortly after birth. She said the babies who die in the first months of life are born prematurely.

“They (the deaths) are caused by low birth weight. They are caused significantly by sepsis, severe infection that is acquired during the delivery, and they are also caused by asphyxia,” Bustreo said.

While in the womb, the fetus floats in amniotic fluid. This fluid is in the fetus’ mouth, ears and nose. But after birth, if a baby cannot breathe and the birth attendant, if there is one, does not know how to clear the baby’s airways, the baby will suffocate.

The report shows the largest number of newborn deaths occurred in Southern Asia (39 percent), followed by sub-Saharan Africa (38 percent). Five countries accounted for half of all newborn deaths: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia.

Children younger than 5 also are more likely to die from malaria than adults, which is one reason sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia have higher child mortality rates than other parts of the world.

​Progress with vaccines

But there are bright spots in the report. 

A vaccine for yellow fever spared children’s lives during an outbreak in Angola last year, and a new vaccine for malaria has proved effective for children. Tanzania has tackled air pollution, improved sanitation, and has worked to provide safe drinking water, which has also had a positive impact on child health there.

Bustreo said the concentration of child deaths are increasingly occurring in countries that are either in acute conflict or in a chronic state of strife, such as Somalia, which has the highest child death rate.

“That is important because it also links to not just the medical care, but also the social determinants of health, which, of course, include peace, stability and education, particularly girls’ education,” she said.

Bustreo explains that a girl who is educated can take better care of herself, “she does not become pregnant too early, because that is another important social phenomenon that we’re seeing that is early pregnancy associated with early and forced child marriage.”

Part of the solution lies in multisectorial planning, better training for midwives, training for nurses and vaccines.

Bustreo is dismayed that some parents in developed countries are refusing to get their children vaccinated against these diseases. Ongoing outbreaks of measles in Europe have claimed the lives of 35 children so far.

She said this trend needs to be tackled aggressively. Parents in low- and middle-income countries want to see their children immunized against measles and other disabling or life-threatening diseases.

Despite the overall gains in reducing child mortality, there’s a sense of urgency among health officials. The U.N report said if current trends continue, about 60 million children younger than 5 will die between now and 2030, and half of them will be newborns.

WHO Sends Experts to Prevent Spread of Plague Beyond Madagascar

The World Health Organization says that since the beginning of August there have been about 1,800 cases of plague in Madagascar with 127 resulting in death. Bubonic plague is not uncommon in the island nation, but this year the population also has been hit by plague pneumonia, which is spreading fast through the densely populated areas. Health officials say the outbreak is unusually severe and there are five more months before the end of the plague season. VOA’s Zlatica Hoke has more.

Trump Names Jerome Powell New Fed Chief

President Donald Trump is making his mark on the US Federal Reserve, naming former investment manager and central bank governor Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February. If confirmed by the Senate, the next chairman of the Federal Reserve will oversee U.S. monetary policy and maintain the stability of the world’s largest economy. Mil Arcega has more from the nation’s capital.

Venezuela Looks to Restructure Debt, but Default Looms

Venezuela on Thursday announced plans to restructure its burgeoning foreign debt, a move that may lead to a default by the cash-strapped OPEC nation whose collapsing socialist economy has left its population struggling to find food and medicine.

President Nicolas Maduro vowed to make a $1.1 billion payment on a bond maturing Thursday, but also created a commission to study “restructuring of all future payments” in order to meet the needs of citizens.

Venezuela has few avenues to do that though because of sanctions by the United States that bar American banks from participating in or even negotiating such deals.

Thus, Maduro’s most readily available recourse to ease payments is unilaterally halting them.

“I am naming a special presidential commission led by Vice President Tareck El Aissami to begin refinancing and restructuring all of Venezuela’s external debt and (begin) the fight against the financial persecution of our country,” Maduro said in a televised speech.

Billions in bonds

Venezuela and state-owned companies have $49 billion in bonds governed by New York Law and promissory notes, according to New York-based Torino Capital.

The government and state oil company PDVSA owe about $1.6 billion in debt service and delayed interest payments by the end of the year, plus another $9 billion in bond servicing in 2018.

The next hard payment deadline for PDVSA is an $81 million bond payment that was due Oct 12 but on which the company delayed payment under a 30-day grace period. Failing to pay that on time would trigger a default, investors say.

That would likely make countries less willing to do business with Venezuela, aggravating shortages of food and medicine and creating further problems for its oil industry, which is hobbled by under-investment.

Wall Street for years pumped billions of dollars into Venezuela by way of bond purchases, passing off the revolutionary rhetoric of the ruling Socialist Party as bluster that belied an iron-clad willingness to pay its debts.

Maduro surprised many by maintaining debt service after the 2014 crash in oil prices, diverting hard currency away from imports of food and medicine toward Wall Street investors.

PDVSA carried out a debt renegotiation in 2016.

But that option was taken off the table after U.S. President Donald Trump levied sanctions blocking the purchase of new debt issued by Venezuela and government-owned entities.

Investors puzzled

Investors seemed puzzled by Maduro’s statements Thursday, which neither clearly declared default nor laid out a path to easing payment burden.

“At no moment did he say they wouldn’t pay, so it’s not a default,” said Alejandro Grisanti of Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica. “But in this environment, Maduro has no way to restructure or refinance as he said today.”

And the mere presence of El Aissami on the new debt commission makes it a non-starter for U.S. financial institution. He was blacklisted this year by U.S. Treasury Department on accusations he is involved in drug trafficking.

The increased pressure of the sanctions has made banks more nervous about working with PDVSA, according to financial industry sources, leading to delays in simple operations.

PDVSA struggled for days to deliver funds for a bond payment due last week amid confusion over which banks were charged with transferring the money.

​Toll on Venezuelans

Critics say Maduro’s decision to put debt above imports has taken a huge toll on the population.

Child malnutrition has reached the scale of a humanitarian crisis in four Venezuelan states, according to a May 2017 report by Caritas Internationalis, a Rome-based nongovernmental organization with links to the Catholic Church. Medicine shortages have also left children dying of preventable diseases.

Officials say ideological adversaries are exaggerating problems for political effect.

But the situation is a stark contrast to the oil boom years of late socialist leader Hugo Chavez, who spent generously on social welfare programs while borrowing profusely to keep spending at full tilt.

Venezuela’s debt is the highest yielding of emerging market bonds measured by JPMorgan’s EMBI Global Diversified Index , paying investors an average of 31 percentage points more than comparable U.S. Treasury notes.

That is nearly double the spread on bonds issued by Mozambique, which is already in default, and more than six times the spread on bonds from war-torn Ukraine.

Officials Disagree on Puerto Rico Power Restoration Timeline

Officials in the U.S. and Puerto Rico gave differing views Thursday on when power will be fully restored to the U.S. territory after Hurricane Maria hit as a Category 4 storm more than a month ago.

Ricardo Ramos, director of the state-owned power company, said the utility has restored 35 percent of the electrical system’s regular output and expects to reach 50 percent by mid-November and 95 percent by mid-December. But Ray Alexander, director of contingency operations at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, said the corps’ goal is to have 50 percent restored by the end of November and 75 percent by the end of January.

 

“We are focused on executing the mission we’ve been assigned,” Alexander said at a hearing in Washington, adding that the agency has been working with the U.S. Department of Energy to help develop a more resilient electrical grid for Puerto Rico.

Gov. Ricardo Rossello criticized the Army Corps of Engineers earlier this week for what he said was a lack of urgency in responding to Puerto Rico’s island-wide blackout.

The discrepancy came as President Donald Trump cleared the way for additional federal funding for Puerto Rico by amending a September disaster declaration to increase the share of rebuilding and recovery costs borne by the U.S. government.

Trump had already authorized the Federal Emergency Management Agency to pay 100 percent of some cleanup and emergency costs for 180 days. Washington will now pay 90 percent of the additional cost of rebuilding Puerto Rico, including repair of public infrastructure like hospitals, bridges and roads and restoration of the island’s devastated power grid.

Typically, U.S. states cover 25 percent of those costs, with federal taxpayers covering 75 percent. Puerto Rico’s finances were in shambles even before the storm made landfall in September.

A large swath of the island still has no electricity, and complaints are widespread among business owners who say losses are mounting and from parents who say their children need to start school. Nearly 20 percent of the island remains without water since Maria hit Sept. 20 with winds of up to 154 mph, killing at least 55 people. Tens of thousands have lost their jobs and some say more than 470,000 people could leave the island in upcoming years.

“If we don’t re-establish power and other basic services, the damage to our economy will be even greater,” said Puerto Rico’s public affairs secretary, Ramon Rosario. “We cannot allow that, and we have established clear goals.”

The difference in estimates came two days after the state-owned utility canceled a heavily scrutinized $300 million contract awarded to Whitefish Energy Holdings. The Montana-based company is located in the hometown of U.S. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and had only two-full time employees before the storm hit. Crews subcontracted by Whitefish will finish their projects before Nov. 30, officials said.

Ramos continued to praise Whitefish despite local and federal audits of the contract. “They’ve performed very well,” he said.

Ramos said he is recommending that Oklahoma-based Cobra Acquisitions, which has a $200 million contract with the government, subcontract the workers Whitefish had employed if the contract allows for it. Ramos also said Cobra’s contract is “practically” the same as the one awarded to Whitefish.

He said the power company sent letters requesting help and received responses from the American Public Power Association and Edison Electric Institute. In addition, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday that his state’s power authority would send 350 workers and 220 bucket trucks next week along with special equipment. It also is sending a tactical power restoration team that includes 28 engineers and 15 damage assessment experts.

The Army Corps of Engineers said it also expects about 2,100 workers to arrive by mid-November to help restore power.

 

Ivanka Trump: World Needs More Women in STEM Fields

Ivanka Trump, U.S. President Donald Trump’s daughter and informal adviser, told a summit in Tokyo Friday that the world must boost women and minority participation in the fields of science, technology, engineering and math (STEM).

Ivanka Trump, seen as an important influence on her father, has made women’s issues one of her signature policy areas since beginning her role at the White House. Her comments came ahead of her father’s trip to Asia, his first since taking office in January, that begins in Japan on Sunday.

 

WATCH: Ivanka Trump on Women’s Participation in STEM Fields

“Female and minority participation in STEM fields is moving in the wrong direction,” she said at the World Assembly for Women summit. “We must create equal participation in these traditionally male-dominated sectors of our economy.”

She said her father’s tax reforms, unveiled by Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday, would benefit American families.

“We are seeking to simplify the tax code, lower rates, expand the child tax credit, eliminate the marriage penalty, and put more money back in the pockets of hard-working Americans,” she told a meeting room in a Tokyo hotel that had a number of empty seats.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said his government was aiming to mobilize women in Japan’s workforce and boost economic growth, launching policies such as improved childcare in his “Womenomics” program.

“We’ve put our full strength into creating an environment where it’s easy for women to work,” Abe said in an opening address to the conference. “I really feel that Japan has come a long way,” he said. 

Japan’s gender gap remains wide despite such efforts, with little progress made since Abe vowed at the United Nations in 2013 to create “a society where women can shine.”

Japan ranked 114 out of 144 in the World Economic Forum’s 2017 Global Gender Gap report, sandwiched between Guinea and Ethiopia and down 13 places since Abe took power.

Abe appointed only two women to ministerial posts in a Cabinet reshuffle in August, down from three and five respectively in his previous two Cabinets. Only 14 percent of Japan’s lawmakers are women.

Men also dominate decision-making in business in Japan. Only 3.7 percent of Japanese-listed company executives were women at the end of July, according to the Cabinet Office, barely changed from 3.4 percent a year earlier.

 

Twitter Employee, on Last Day, Deactivates Trump Account

U.S. President Donald Trump’s @realdonaldtrump Twitter account was deactivated by a Twitter Inc employee whose last day at the company was Thursday, and the account was down for 11 minutes before it was restored, the social media company said.

“We have learned that this was done by a Twitter customer-support employee who did this on the employee’s last day. We are conducting a full internal review,” Twitter said in a tweet.

“We are continuing to investigate and are taking steps to prevent this from happening again,” the company said in an earlier tweet.

A Twitter representative declined to comment further.

The White House did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

Trump has made extensive use of messages on Twitter to attack his opponents and promote his policies both during the 2016 presidential campaign and since taking office in January.

He has 41.7 million followers on Twitter.

His first tweet after Thursday’s outage:

In a similar incident last November, Twitter Chief Executive Officer Jack Dorsey’s account was briefly suspended as a result of what he said was an internal mistake.

Twitter Employee, on Their Last Day, Deactivates Trump Account

U.S. President Donald Trump’s @realdonaldtrump Twitter account was deactivated by a Twitter Inc employee whose last day at the company was Thursday, and the account was down for 11 minutes before it was restored, the social media company said.

“We have learned that this was done by a Twitter customer-support employee who did this on the employee’s last day. We are conducting a full internal review,” Twitter said in a tweet.

“We are continuing to investigate and are taking steps to prevent this from happening again,” the company said in an earlier tweet.

A Twitter representative declined to comment further.

The White House did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

Trump has made extensive use of messages on Twitter to attack his opponents and promote his policies both during the 2016 presidential campaign and since taking office in January.

He has 41.7 million followers on Twitter.

His first tweet after Thursday’s outage:

In a similar incident last November, Twitter Chief Executive Officer Jack Dorsey’s account was briefly suspended as a result of what he said was an internal mistake.

New, Endangered Orangutan Species Found in Indonesia

A new species of orangutan has been identified in remote Indonesian forests and immediately becomes the most endangered type of great ape in the world with just 800 individuals, scientists said on Thursday.

The Tapanuli orangutan, found only in upland forests in North Sumatra, differs from the other two species of orangutan in the shape of its skull and teeth, its genes, and in the way the males make long booming calls across the jungle, they said.

“The differences are very subtle, not easily observable to the naked eye,” Professor Michael Kruetzen of the University of Zurich, who is part of an international team, told Reuters.

“With no more than 800 individuals, this species is the most endangered great ape,” the scientists wrote. Apart from humans, great apes comprise orangutans, gorillas, chimpanzees and

bonobos.

The Tapanuli orangutan had probably been isolated from other populations for 10,000-20,000 years, the researchers wrote in the journal Current Biology. The population had been known by scientists since at least 1997 but had not previously been considered a separate species.

The Tapanuli orangutan faces threats including from forest clearance to make way for mining or palm oil plantations. The region also had plans for a hydro-electric dam.

The scientists urged quick conservation measures. Otherwise, “we may see the discovery and extinction of a great ape species within our lifetime,” they wrote.

Laurel Sutherlin of Rainforest Action Network, who was not involved in the study, said the finding “must also serve as a wake up call to all of us from consumers, to global food and paper brands, to investors and local and national governments” to protect forests.

Mexico City Updates 911 App to Push Quake Alerts to Phones

Mexico City has updated its 911 emergency app to send earthquake alerts to residents’ smartphones following last month’s magnitude 7.1 temblor that killed 369 people, including 228 in the capital, authorities announced Thursday.

Mayor Miguel Angel Mancera said users of the free 911 CDMX app can get sound and vibration alerts for any quake strong enough to threaten damage in the city.

It was developed by the governmental center known as C5, for Command, Control Computing, Communications and Contact, and is available for both iOS and Android.

With nerves still raw from the Sept. 19 earthquake that collapsed 38 buildings in Mexico City, Mancera said there would be no demonstration of the system to avoid causing unnecessary alarm.

“We are not interested in having anyone hear it who does not know the context in which it is being presented,” the mayor said at a news conference.

More than 20 million people live in the capital and surrounding suburbs, much of which is built on a former lakebed. Its soil can amplify the effects of earthquakes that strike far away and whose shockwaves arrive in the sprawling metropolis some time later.

An even stronger earthquake Sept. 7, whose magnitude was recently adjusted upward from 8.1 to 8.2 by the U.S. Geological Survey, was centered hundreds of miles away, off the country’s southern coast, but was still felt strongly by many in Mexico City.

The capital already has a system of loudspeakers that blare alarms when a significant temblor is detected.

C5 general coordinator Idris Rodriguez Zapata urged residents to download the app. He also said they should heed quake protocols “without hesitation at the moment [the alarm] is heard through the system of speakers or on cellphones.”

Last month, Mancera said there had been reports of people setting their cellphone ringtones to the sound of the seismic alarm and urged them to remove it so as not to provoke panic.

Other 911 app functions let users view tweets about seismic activity, contact a 911 operator, or register their blood type and medical history.

Facebook Pressured to Notify People Who Saw Russian Posts

Facebook received several tongue-lashings during U.S. congressional hearings this week, but the world’s largest social network also got an assignment: Figure out how to notify tens of millions of Americans who might have been fed Russian propaganda.

U.S. lawmakers and some tech analysts are pressing the company to identify users who were served about 80,000 posts on Facebook, 120,000 on its Instagram picture-sharing app, and 3,000 ads that the company has traced to alleged Russian operatives, and to inform them.

The posts from Russia were designed to divide Americans, particularly around the 2016 U.S. elections, according to Facebook, U.S. intelligence agencies and lawmakers. The Russian government has denied it tried to meddle in the elections.

“When you discover a deceptive foreign government presentation on your platform, my presumption, from what you’ve said today — you’ll stop it and take it down,” Democratic Senator Jack Reed told Facebook General Counsel Colin Stretch in the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Wednesday.

“Do you feel an obligation, in turn, to notify those people who have accessed that? And can you do that? And shouldn’t you do that?” Reed asked.

Stretch responded that he was not sure Facebook could identify the people because its estimates have relied on modeling, rather than actual counts, but he did not rule it out.

“The technical challenges associated with that undertaking are substantial,” Stretch said.

Critics of Facebook on social media and in media interviews have expressed skepticism, noting that the company closely tracks user activity such as likes and clicks for advertising purposes.

Facebook declined to comment on Thursday.

As many as 126 million people could have been served the posts on Facebook and 20 million on Instagram, according to company estimates.

Social media critics

Many of them will not believe they were manipulated unless Facebook tells them, said Tristan Harris of Time Well Spent, an organization critical of advertising-based social media.

“Facebook is a living, breathing crime scene, and they’re the only ones with access to what happened,” Harris, an ex-Google employee, said in an interview Thursday.

The 2.1 billion people with active Facebook accounts often get notifications from the service, on everything from birthdays and upcoming events to friend requests and natural disasters.

Shortly before 6 p.m. EDT on Thursday, more than 83,000 people had signed a Change.org online petition asking Facebook to tell users about the Russian posts.

Lawyers for Twitter and Alphabet’s Google also said their companies would consider notifying customers.

The intelligence committee’s vice chairman, Senator Mark Warner, drew an analogy to another industry.

“If you were in a medical facility, and you got exposed to a disease, the medical facility would have to tell the folks who were exposed,” Warner said.

IN PHOTOS: A Look at Russian Social Media Election ‘Meddling’

‘Duty to warn’

U.S. law includes a concept known as “post-sale duty to warn,” which may require notifying previous buyers if a manufacturer discovers a problem with a product.

That legal duty likely does not apply to Facebook, said Christopher Robinette, a law professor at Widener University in Pennsylvania. He said courts would likely rule that social media posts are not a product but a service, which is exempt from the duty. Courts also do not want to interfere in free speech, he said.

Robinette added, though, that he thought notifications to users would be a good idea. “This strikes me as a fairly significant problem,” he said.

Pressure Mounts on Apple to Live Up to Hype for iPhone X

The iPhone X’s lush screen, facial-recognition skills and $1,000 price tag are breaking new ground in Apple’s marquee product line.

 

Now, the much-anticipated device is testing the patience of consumers and investors as demand outstrips suppliers’ capacity.

 

Apple said Thursday that iPhone sales rose 3 percent in the July-September quarter, a period that saw the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus come out in the final weeks. Sales could have been higher if many customers hadn’t been waiting for the iPhone X, which comes out Friday.

Apple shipped 46.7 million iPhones during the period, according to its fiscal fourth-quarter report released Thursday. That’s up from 45.5 million at the same time last year after the iPhone 7 came out, but represents a step back from the same time in 2015, when Apple shipped 48 million iPhones during the quarter.

 

As with recent quarters, one of the main sources of Apple’s growth is coming from its services, which are anchored by an app store that feeds the iPhone and other devices.

 

Revenue in that division surged 34 percent to $8.5 billion during the July-September period. All told, Apple earned $10.7 billion on revenue of $52.6 billion, compared with a $9 billion profit on revenue of $46.9 billion a year earlier.

 

Apple shares are up 3 percent in after-hours trading.

 

Nonetheless, the just-ended quarter largely became an afterthought once Apple decided to release the iPhone X six weeks after the iPhone 8.

“The Super Bowl for Apple is the iPhone X,” GBH analyst Daniel Ives said. “That is the potential game changer.”

 

But it also brings a potential stumbling block. While conspiracy theorists might suspect that Apple is artificially reducing supply to generate buzz, analysts say the real reason is that Apple’s suppliers so far haven’t been to manufacture the iPhone X quickly enough.

Making the iPhone X is proving to be a challenge because it boasts a color-popping OLED screen, which isn’t as readily available as standard LCD displays in other iPhone models. The new iPhone also requires more sophisticated components to power the facial-recognition technology for unlocking the device.

 

Even with the iPhone X’s delayed release, Apple is still struggling to catch up. Apple is now giving delivery times of five to six weeks for those ordering in advance online (limited supplies will be available in Apple stores for the formal release Friday). Most analysts are predicting Apple won’t be able to catch up with demand until early next year.

 

On Thursday, Apple predicted revenue for this quarter from $84 billion to $87 billion. Analysts, who have already factored in the supply challenges, expected $85.2 billion, according to FactSet.

 

Analysts are expecting Apple to ship 80 million iPhones during the current quarter, which includes the crucial holiday shopping season, according to FactSet. That would be slightly better than the same time last year.

 

Apple is counting on the iPhone X to drive even higher-than-usual sales during the first nine months of next year — a scenario that might not play out if production problems persist and impatient consumers turn instead to phones from Google or Samsung.

 

“What Apple needs to do is manage consumer expectations so they don’t get frustrated having to wait for so long for a new phone,” Ives said.

 

Analysts believe Apple can pull off the juggling act. They are expecting the company to sell 242 million iPhones in the fiscal year ending in September 2018 — the most in the product’s history. The previous record was set in 2015 when Apple shipped 231 million iPhones, thanks to larger models introduced just before the fiscal year began. By comparison, Apple shipped nearly 217 million iPhones in its just-completed fiscal 2017.

 

If Apple falters, investors are likely to dump its stock after driving the shares up by 45 percent so far this year on the expectation that the iPhone X will be the company’s biggest hit yet.