The effects of the 2008 financial crisis are still being felt, says the International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde. 

She cites a new IMF study showing global productivity has slowed to 0.3 percent over the last decade, lower than the pre-crisis average of about 1 percent growth per year. Had productivity growth followed pre-crisis trends, Lagarde says the overall GDP in advanced economies would be about 5 percent higher.

Lagarde attributes the slowdown in labor productivity — the amount of goods and services produced by an average worker per hour — to three major headwinds: an aging global population, the slowdown in international trade, and the lasting impact of the 2008 financial meltdown.

The slowdown has been particularly abrupt in continental Europe, where five Eurozone member countries — Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus — required various emergency bailouts after being unable to refinance their sovereign debt. 

Lagarde says strong policy actions, such as government-backed innovation, may be required to reverse the slowdown. For example, she says ramping up research and development by 40 percent could increase the gross domestic output (GDP) in advanced economies by as much as 5 percent, significantly improving demand at the same time in developing economies. 

But to be effective, Lagarde says governments must provide clear signals about future economic policy and boost investment in education, worker training and infrastructure.

Lagarde made her comments Monday at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute in Washington, just two weeks before the World Bank and IMF annual spring meeting, at which member countries discuss challenges facing the global economy and ways to ensure financial stability around the world.
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Japanese big manufacturers’ business confidence improved for a second straight quarter to hit a one-and-a-half year high in March, a closely watched central bank survey showed, a sign the benefits of an export-driven economic recovery were broadening.

Service-sector sentiment improved for the first time in six quarters and companies remained upbeat on their capital expenditure plans, the Bank of Japan’s “tankan” survey showed, offering hope the economic recovery will gather momentum in coming months.

The data, which will be among factors the BOJ will scrutinize at its next rate review on April 26-27, reinforces a dominant market view the central bank’s next policy move would be to reduce rather than expand monetary stimulus.

“The tankan showed a balanced improvement in corporate sentiment at manufacturers and service-sector firms,” said Yuichiro Nagai, an economist at Barclays Securities. “Overall, the results support the BOJ’s rosy view on the economy.”

The headline index measuring big manufacturers’ business sentiment rose to plus 12 in March from plus 10 three months ago, the tankan showed on Monday, falling slightly short of market forecasts but marking the highest reading since December 2015.

The index gauging big non-manufacturers’ sentiment improved 2 points from plus 20, rising for the first time in six quarters and hitting the highest level since March 2016, the survey showed.

Brexit, Trump cloud outlook

Big manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate slightly in the coming three months, as risks to global trade such as Britain’s decision to leave the European Union and U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist statements cloud the outlook.

Still, the survey found big firms plan to increase capital spending by 0.6 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2018, compared with a median market forecast for a 0.1 percent drop.

“There has been talk about the risks of protectionism, but so far Japanese companies are not taking any specific steps related to this,” said Norio Miyagawa, senior economist at Mizuho Securities.

“This tankan will reinforce expectations that the BOJ is on hold for the time being. We certainly don’t see the need to ease or tighten policy,” he said.

Signs of life

Japan’s economy has shown signs of life in recent months, with exports and factory output benefiting from a recovery in global demand.

With inflation expected to accelerate later this year, a growing number of analysts now predict the BOJ’s next move would be to start scaling back its massive monetary stimulus.

The tankan’s sentiment indexes are derived by subtracting the number of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say they are good. A positive reading means optimists outnumber pessimists.

 
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Training for the Boston Marathon has left Tommy Race feeling spent. His bank account, too: Race’s Boston adventure will cost about $2,000.

“It’s a lot of money, but it’s also a vacation,” said Race, a high school math teacher from Bellingham, Washington. “For a runner like myself, I’d much rather throw down money to run Boston than go to Cancun or Europe or some other travel destination.”

Race (yes, that’s his real name) has plenty of company. Thirty-thousand athletes from 94 countries will participate in this month’s 121st running of America’s most venerable footrace, and organizers say they’ll pump $192 million into the local economy.

That’s the equivalent of $311 for every man, woman and child living in the city of Boston.

Sports industry experts say Boston’s payout is part of a lucrative global trend that’s been playing out in Chicago, New York, London and other cities that stage major marathons drawing competitors and spectators from around the world.

“People want to be a part of something that Olympians run in,” said Rich Harshbarger, CEO of Running USA, a nonprofit group that promotes the sport.

“You’re not going to be able to run the bases at Fenway. But at a big marathon, you get to line up and have the same experience that the pros do,” he said.

It’s an affluent bunch: Running USA’s latest national survey, done in 2015, found that more than seven in 10 marathon runners earn more than $75,000 a year, and most are college graduates.

Many in the field for the Boston Marathon on April 17 will bring their families along. Another 10,000 runners will descend on Boston for a sister 5K race, swelling not only the size of the crowds but the amount spent on hotels, restaurants, transportation and a weekend running expo hawking expensive gear and swag.

“Nearly everyone involved … will patronize local businesses,” said Tom Grilk, CEO of the Boston Athletic Association, which manages the marathon.

Included in the $192.2 million projection is $30 million that runners will raise to benefit dozens of charities.

And the Boston Marathon’s economic impact is steadily growing. Last year’s race generated $188.8 million, and the 2015 race brought in $182 million, the Association said.

Patrick Moscaritolo, president and CEO of the Greater Boston Convention & Visitors Bureau, calls race weekend “an extraordinary kick start” for the tourist season.

Other races that are part of the World Marathon Majors – a series that includes Berlin, Boston, Chicago, London, New York City and Tokyo – have an even bigger haul.

The TCS New York City Marathon says its economic impact in 2014, the most recent year for which figures were available, was $415 million. The Bank of America Chicago Marathon had an estimated $277 million impact in 2015, organizers say.

Getting to the start line is expensive, “but it’s worth every penny,” said Malinda Ann Hill, bereavement coordinator for Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, who’s running her first Boston together with her twin sister.

After 12 attempts to qualify, Hill doesn’t care what it costs.

“My twin won’t total it up, though,” she said. “She doesn’t want to know.”
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 Iraq’s oil minister said on Sunday that his country plans to increase daily crude oil production to 5 million barrels by the end of this year, up from the current rate of about 4.4 million barrels per day, to secure sorely needed cash for its ailing economy.

Iraq, where oil revenues make up nearly 95 percent of the budget, has been reeling under an economic crisis since 2014, when oil prices began their descent from a high of above $100 a barrel. The Islamic State group’s onslaught, starting in 2014, has exacerbated the situation — forcing Iraq to divert much of its resources to a long and costly war.

Addressing an energy conference in Baghdad, Oil Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi didn’t give details on which of the country’s oil fields would supply the increased output.

Late last year, Iraq joined a deal by OPEC and non-OPEC members to lower production for six months by 1.8 million barrels a day in order to prop up global oil prices. The mutual production decrease began on Jan. 1. Iraq’s share in the deal is to reduce output by 210,000 barrels a day to 4.351 million barrels.

“There are positive elements in that deal and we achieved a lot of its targets,” al-Luaibi told reporters on the sideline of the conference. “Work and cooperation are underway … to reach the 1.8 [million barrels a day] reduction,” he added, without divulging whether Iraq is going to support an extension to that deal.

OPEC Secretary-General, Mohammed Barkindo, said the compliance among the participants was 86 percent in January and 94 percent in February. Barkindo told reporters that OPEC members would consider whether to extend the production decrease agreement at a meeting next month.

The deal propped up the crude price to around $50 per barrel.

Iraq holds the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves. This year, it added 10 billion barrels, bringing its total reserves up to 153.1 billion barrels.

Al-Luaibi also said that more 15 billion barrels are planned to be added by 2018.

Iraq’s 2017 budget stands at about 100.67 trillion Iraqi dinars, or nearly $85.17 billion, running with a deficit of 21.65 trillion dinars, or about $18.32 billion. That’s based on an estimated oil price of $42 per barrel and daily export capacity of 3.75 million barrels.

Iraq is also grappling with a major humanitarian crisis. The U.N. estimates that more than 3 million people have been forced from their homes since 2014. It also faces growing dissatisfaction among residents of areas recaptured from IS who have had their properties demolished and suffer from scarce public services.

 
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Investors are plowing ever more into ethical funds to back their views on issues such as global warming and gender equality, but such investments can be confusingly similar to standard funds, except for higher fees and “green halo” marketing.

The $23 trillion “sustainable, responsible and impact” (SRI) investment sector has received a rush of money since the Paris climate agreement and, more recently, in protest against U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to slash environmental regulations.

Europe is the dominant region for such investments, with $12.04 trillion, followed by the United States, with $8.72 trillion, while Asia lags some way behind.

U.S. investors have poured $1.8 billion into actively managed U.S. equity funds in the socially responsible category from November to January, according to Lipper data, while other funds saw a net outflow of $133 billion.

Even in fossil-fuel-rich Australia and New Zealand, SRI investment rose from $148 billion to $516 billion between 2014 and 2016, and from $729 billion to $1.09 trillion in oil-rich Canada, according to the Global Sustainable Investment Review released Monday.

Gavin Goodhand, a portfolio manager at Sydney-based Altius Asset Management, said the company’s sustainable bond fund tripled shortly after the 2015 climate accord, where nearly 200 countries signed up to measures designed to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

“The Paris conference was the line in the sand for many of our retail customers, particularly the millennial generation, who want to do the right thing for the environment,” Goodhand said.

Green funds may be not so green

Governments are also tapping the trend, selling green bonds to fund projects such as wind farms or low-carbon transport, with Poland, France and Nigeria making their debut this year.

Some managers, however, are skeptical.

“While environmental, social and governance factors should always factor into investment decisions, this is largely a marketing exercise,” said Steve Goldman, a global portfolio manager at Sydney-based Kapstream Capital, which has A$10 billion ($7.6 billion) of fixed-income assets.

Goldman said Kapstream did not have a responsible investment fund because its clients had not asked for it.

The bond market does not have commonly agreed standards or criteria for what constitutes a green bond, and there is no guarantee the proceeds go to the low-carbon project as claimed.

There are similar concerns over equity products.

Stuart Palmer, head of ethics research at Australian Ethical Investment, said there was a danger that some marketing departments would “greenwash” their products to lure investors into funds that were little different to standard products.

Higher fees

There are no agreed definitions on what is considered ethical, sustainable and socially responsible, but ethical investors are typically expected to cough up higher fees.

For example, retail investors pay more than a third higher fees for the sustainability and ethical funds at Sydney-based BT Investment Management (BTIM) than for its standard share fund equivalent.

The three funds hold six or seven of their top-weighted stocks in common, including major banks Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Westpac Banking Corp, National Australia Bank and miner BHP Billiton , according to December filings.

A BT spokeswoman did not return requests for comment.

Due diligence difficult

For investors, it can be a minefield.

“I find it difficult as a consumer to do the due diligence I would like to do because even the ethical funds are not always totally transparent about what they define as ethical,” said retail investor Meraiah Foley, a Sydney academic.

“One of the ethical funds I have invests very heavily in retail banks in Australia, and those banks themselves may be underwriting projects that the fund itself would not invest in.”

There is also no standard practice on what to do when an existing fund stock breaches a manager’s policies. Some investment managers will sell, but others argue they can influence behavior by retaining their shareholding.

“We believe in engagement rather than divestment,” said Sam Sicilia, chief financial officer at the A$22 billion pension fund Hostplus. “When you sell a share in a ‘bad’ company, it’s a transfer of ownership and does nothing to the company that’s causing the issue, so divestment does not really work.”
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President Donald Trump doubled down on his tough talk on trade with a pair of executive orders Friday, which he says are designed to level the playing field and reduce the $500 billion US trade deficit, more than half of which is with China. As Mil Arcega reports, the issue of unfair trade is likely to come up when the U.S. president meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week.
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Hotels offer congee and other Chinese staples for room service. Casinos train staff members on Chinese etiquette. Restaurants, tourist sights and shopping malls translate signs, menus and information booklets into Mandarin.

The American hospitality industry is stepping up efforts to make Chinese visitors feel more welcome, since they are projected to soon surpass travelers from the United Kingdom and Japan as the single largest overseas demographic.

And it’s not just the typical tourist hubs of New York and Los Angeles, where such efforts have long been commonplace. Smaller cities like Boston, Las Vegas, Seattle and Washington, D.C., are increasingly getting into the act, industry officials say.

“Americans traditionally lag behind what other international designations do for different cultures,” said Elliott Ferguson, CEO of Destination DC, the city’s convention and tourism organization, which last year launched “Welcome China,” a certification program for local businesses. “We just kind of assume that one size fits all. Quite frankly, that’s just not welcoming.”

Local tourism associations in those and other cities have recently launched campaigns aimed at getting their member hotels, restaurants and tourism companies to better incorporate Chinese language and customs into their offerings. They’re also embarking on tourism-focused sales missions to China and opening satellite offices in Chinese cities to strengthen ties and sell their city to trendsetters.

Sheraton Boston offers creature comforts

Some companies have already embraced the message.

The Sheraton Boston in the Back Bay neighborhood started offering in 2013 simple creature comforts many Chinese travelers expect, including slippers, robes, instant noodles, an electric kettle and green tea, and have since taken other steps to cater to Chinese guests, said Angela Vento, the hotel’s general manager.

The Four Seasons in D.C.’s Georgetown neighborhood makes similar gestures, as well as offering Chinese-language television and newspapers. It’s also working on offering more traditional Chinese dishes on its room service and restaurant menus, said Liliana Baldassari, a hotel spokeswoman.

In Las Vegas, Caesars Entertainment last year started offering guests at some of its affiliated resorts the option to book and pay for hotel rooms using WeChat, China’s most popular social media app.

“It’s made a really strong statement to the Chinese that these people really welcome us and understand us,” said Bruce Bommarito, the company’s vice president for international marketing, noting the Roman-themed casino has rolled out other China-focused initiatives in recent years, including training programs for staff on basic cultural etiquette for serving Chinese guests.

Those and other small touches are a step in the right direction, but more companies need to make an effort to recognize the growing importance of the Chinese market, said Justin Minggan Wei, a 27-year-old from Beijing who came to Boston in 2008 for college, an experience that inspired him to launch a consulting company helping local restaurants and businesses better serve Chinese customers.

Chicago Hilton reaches out

Zeng Wen, a 24-year-old who works part-time as a tour guide for Chinese-speakers in Chicago, said she has noticed recent efforts to reach out to Chinese tourists, like the Hilton hotel chain’s “Hilton Huanying” program, which derives its name from the Chinese words for “welcome.”

But Zhe Zhang, a 36-year-old from Guangzhou who visited Los Angeles this year, said he didn’t see any obvious outreach to Chinese visitors, outside of Chinese-run establishments. The most intimidating part, he said, was ordering food with his basic grasp of English.

“If possible, restaurants could provide a simple Chinese menu or pictured menu,” Zhang suggested.

Cities can’t afford to be caught flat-footed as China’s growing middle class — almost nonexistent two decades ago — flexes its spending power, industry experts say.

Chinese visitors already spend more in the U.S. than other international visitors, at roughly $7,200 per person, according to the U.S. Travel Association, an industry trade group. Travelers from the country are expected to more than double from about 2.6 million visitors in 2015 to nearly 6 million by 2021, the association said.

More direct flights from China to a wider range of U.S. cities in recent years is partly fueling the boom.

10-year visa a plus

Creation of a 10-year visa between the U.S. and China in 2014 has also made it easier for Chinese to travel more frequently to the U.S. That has allowed them to venture beyond must-see destinations like New York and Los Angeles to smaller and mid-size destinations and even the national parks, said Scott Johnson, a New York consultant working with Boston and other cities to grow their international presence.

The growing ranks of affluent Chinese are also staying longer and visiting more locations in the U.S. as they plan for their children’s college education or seek real estate and other investment opportunities.

U.S. tourism officials are working to assure partners in China that they remain welcoming even as the administration of Republican President Donald Trump tightens international travel policies and promises fundamental changes in the U.S.-China trade relationship, said Tom Norwalk, CEO of Visit Seattle, the city’s tourism organization.

“Security and travel don’t have to be mutually exclusive,” he said. “We’d hate to see us roll back the clock. We’ve been pretty loud and clear about that.”              
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Friday marked the end of the week, the month and the first fiscal quarter of 2017.

The first-quarter statistics were pretty impressive with the NASDAQ Composite delivering the best return of the three main indices of nearly 10 percent as the index broke through another record high on Friday, led by heavyweights like Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN).

“The trends that are driving earnings growth in that sector —- cloud computing, internet of things, mobile and tablet adoption, increasing consumption of video, et cetera —- are all intact, and an improving global economy should allow that to continue,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Cornerstone Financial Partners.

The S&P 500 closed the quarter higher by its best gain since the fourth quarter of 2015. The Dow Jones industrial average added nearly 5.5 percent, which was its sixth straight positive quarter and the longest winning streak since the fourth quarter of 2006, although March showed the first monthly loss since October.

Trading week ahead

The all-important Employment Situation Report for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, April 7. The federal government’s employment data give the most comprehensive report of how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they’re getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers provide the best way to gauge the current state, as well as the future direction, of the economy.

Other key macro events include release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from March 14-15 on Wednesday and retail same-store sales throughout the morning on Thursday. While investors do not expect a change in the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, the release could move the markets as traders pick apart each word, looking for clues to monetary policy, when the next rate hike may occur and the amount of hikes anticipated for 2017.

Second-quarter outlook

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, believes the second quarter will get off to a good start.

“Both consumer and business confidence continue to rise, which should provide a tailwind for faster growth,” McMillan said in a research note. “Job creation remains very strong, and wage growth also continues to rise. Around the world, both Europe and Asia are seeing faster growth, marking the first synchronized global expansion since the crisis.”

McMillan believes that the second quarter isn’t likely to repeat the first, but strong economic fundamentals, along with rising corporate earnings, could continue to push markets higher. Rising confidence will support valuation levels and also offers a real possibility of upside surprises in the hard economic data, which could translate into even better than expected earnings growth.
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