A new vaccine against rotavirus, a diarrheal disease that kills about 600 children a day, has been shown to have almost 67 percent efficacy in preventing the illness.

“This efficacy of about 70 percent is higher than any other vaccine in similar settings,” said Dr. Emmanuel Baron, director of Epicentre, the research arm of Doctors Without Borders, which conducted the trial.

A clinical trial of 3,500 infants in the African country of Niger showed the efficacy of the new vaccine, known as BRV-PV, to be 66.7 percent. Thirty-one cases of rotavirus were reported among children who got the vaccine, compared with 87 cases among those who received a placebo.

Details of the study and the vaccine’s effectiveness were published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

“We saw actually three things,” Baron said. “The first is that this vaccine is efficient. The second is that this vaccine is safe. And we also saw a good acceptability by the care providers and the families.”

An estimated 450,000 young children and babies die each year of diarrheal diseases. One of them is rotavirus, which causes a severe infection of the gastrointestinal tract. 

Experts say rotavirus is responsible for about 37 percent of deaths among children younger than 5 who succumb to diarrheal diseases each year, or about 215,000 deaths annually.

There are two existing vaccines, but Baron said they are not widely used, as they are relatively expensive and must be refrigerated. Refrigeration is an obstacle in many African countries where rotavirus is most pronounced because electricity there is unreliable.

Even when children are immunized with the older vaccines, Baron says, hundreds die each day around the world.

The new vaccine does not need refrigeration for up to six months, because it is mixed or reconstituted with liquid before it is given to children in a three-dose schedule, at 6, 10 and 14 weeks of age. 

Initially, the BRV-PV is expected to cost $6 dollars for the three shots, a price that is expected to drop as the vaccine gains traction.

Baron said clinicians in countries where rotavirus is a serious health threat are waiting for the green light from the World Health Organization to begin immunizing children with the new vaccine.
…

On Tuesday, the rusty patched bumblebee became the first wild bee in the continental United States to be placed on the U.S. endangered species list. Veronica Balderas Iglesias reports, scientists hope the designation will help safeguard one of the small insects that play a big role in American agriculture and the environment.
…

In advance of World TB day (March 24), the World Health Organization is warning the battle to wipe out the global tuberculosis epidemic will not be won unless stigma, discrimination and marginalization of TB patients is brought to an end. VOA was in Geneva at the launch of new WHO ethics guidance for the treatment of people with tuberculosis.

Progress is being made toward achieving the U.N. Sustainable Development Goal of ending the global TB epidemic by 2030.  The World Health Organization reports 49 million lives have been saved since 2000.

But, much remains to be done. 

Data from 2015 show more than 10.4 million people fell ill and 1.8 million died of tuberculosis, with most cases and fatalities occurring in developing countries.

The World Health Organization says stigma and discrimination against TB patients hamper efforts to wipe out this deadly disease. 

WHO Global TB Program medical officer Ernesto Jaramillo says vulnerable people, such as migrants, prisoners, ethnic minorities, marginalized women and children are most likely to suffer abuse, neglect and rejection.

He says this prevents them from seeking treatment for tuberculosis.

“Having new tools for diagnosis, and treatment of TB is not sufficient if there are not clear standards to ensure that vulnerable people can have access in a matter of priority to these tools in a way that the end TB strategy can really serve the interest not only of individuals, but also the interests of public health in general ,” said Jaramillo.

WHO Global TB program director Mario Raviglione tells VOA no country, rich or poor, is immune from getting tuberculosis.  He warns marginalizing patients with TB is dangerous.

“You cannot eliminate a disease like TB thinking that you build walls or you isolate your country,” said Raviglione. “TB is an airborne disease.  It travels by air.  So, you have a Boeing 747 that leaves Malawi tonight and it comes to Switzerland tomorrow morning and there you go.  So, it has to be faced from a global perspective.”

New WHO ethical guidance includes actions to overcome barriers of stigma, discrimination and marginalization of people with tuberculosis.  The agency says protecting the human rights of all those affected will save many lives and will make it possible to end this global scourge. 
…

Curious toddlers find the drugs in a mother’s purse or accidentally dropped on the floor. Sometimes a parent fails to secure the child-resistant cap on a bottle of painkillers.

 

No matter how it happens, if a 35-pound toddler grabs just one opioid pill, chews it and releases the full concentration of a time-released adult drug into their small bodies, death can come swiftly.

 

These are some of the youngest victims of the nation’s opioid epidemic — children under age 5 who die after swallowing opioids. The number of children’s deaths is still small relative to the overall toll from opioids, but toddler fatalities have climbed steadily over the last 10 years.

 

In 2000, 14 children in the U.S. under age 5 died after ingesting opioids. By 2015, that number climbed to 51, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, alone, four children died last year of accidental overdoses. Another 2-year-old perished in January.

 

Each family who loses a toddler to opioids confronts a death that probably could have been prevented. Here are a few of their stories:

 

An energetic birthday girl, a methadone mystery

 

Cataleya Tamekia-Damiah Wimberly couldn’t sit still. She spent most of her first birthday party in Milwaukee dancing and diving into the cake. But her first birthday party was also her last. Nearly three weeks later, she was found dead of a cause her mother never suspected — a methadone overdose.

 

Helen Jackson, 24, was styling her older daughter’s hair when she got a call from Cataleya’s father, who shared custody of the little girl. He sobbed on the phone as he explained how he found their daughter unresponsive the morning of Feb. 16, 2016.

 

“I screamed so hard and so loud,” Jackson said. “The screams that came out of me took all my strength, all my wind. It was just terrible.”

 

Police were puzzled. They looked into whether the toddler was smothered while co-sleeping with her father and his girlfriend. They also investigated carbon monoxide poisoning because of a gas smell. Toxicology tests eventually revealed the methadone in her system.

 

Jackson said her daughter, while in the care of her father, was at a relative’s house when she swallowed the methadone that took her life.

 

Police are still investigating how Cataleya got the methadone. The case could be referred to the Milwaukee County District Attorney’s Office for consideration of criminal charges, said Sgt. Timothy Gauerke.

 

Since Cataleya’s death, friends and family have commented on what they perceive as Jackson’s strength in dealing with her loss. In reality, she said, she feels fragile and weak.

 

“I don’t know when I’m going to fall apart,” she said. “I don’t know when I’m going to explode. It’s all still in there.”

Mother’s prescription proves fatal for daughter

 

At just 2 years old, Londyn Raine Robinson Sack was protective of her baby brother, Liam.

 

“She thought she was his mother,” said Londyn’s grandmother, Shauna Etheredge. “She liked to be the boss of her little brother.”

 

Londyn’s own mother was convicted of second-degree manslaughter and risk of injury to a child in connection with the Oct. 19, 2014, death of her daughter, who ingested an opioid known as Suboxone that was packaged in the form of a dissolving strip.

 

Prosecutors in New Britain, Connecticut, said the drug was obtained illegally by her mother and was dispensed in a box, not a child-resistant container.

 

Rebekah Robinson entered a plea in which she did not accept or deny responsibility for the charges but agreed to accept punishment. In June 2016, she was sentenced to 10 years in prison and 10 years of probation.

 

Robinson apparently knew Londyn had ingested the opioid but did not call for medical help, according to prosecutors. It was an older sibling who called 911 to say her little sister was not breathing.

 

The Connecticut Department of Children and Families was cited in a 2015 report for failing to adequately identify risks to Londyn and Robinson’s three other children, given her history of mental health, substance abuse and child-welfare complaints.

 

Besides her protective nature, Londyn loved making people laugh, Etheredge said.

 

“She would put underwear on her head and act goofy and silly,” her grandmother said. “She loved to explore.”

 

Etheredge, of Indian Trail, North Carolina, said one of her lasting memories of her grandchild was a visit to the local park.

 

“The last time I saw her, she was running around and trying to catch up with the birds,” she said.

Precocious “lil’ Reg” dies, uncle stands accused

Curious and energetic, Reginald Kendall Harris Jr. would hold conversations beyond those of a typical toddler.

 

“If he was talking to his mom, you would think he was five or six years old,” said his great-uncle Calvin Harris, of Portland, Oregon. “If you would talk to him, you would engage in a full conversation. It was hilarious for his age,” Harris said.

 

The boy died on Oct. 10, 2016, after swallowing methadone. Portland police soon issued a warning, saying the case was a reminder to keep all prescription drugs away from children.

 

Reginald’s uncle, Willie Lee Harris Jr., is behind bars, accused of leaving methadone in a place accessible to his nephew. He has pleaded not guilty to second-degree manslaughter.

 

Harris’ mother, Pamela Harris, of Vancouver, Washington, said her grandson got hold of the drug while riding in her son’s car.

 

“Lil’ Reg was so touchy and curious,” she recalled. The methadone was in a cup.

 

The boy whose family affectionately called him “Lil’ Reg” would “say some crazy stuff sometimes, somethings you wouldn’t expect a 2-year-old to say,” great-grandmother Lucy Lee Harris recalled. “He would answer the door: ‘What up, dawg?'”

 

Instead of the way he died, Pamela Harris chooses to remember how her grandson lived, such as his joy when the family made plans to visit his favorite hangout, a Chuck E. Cheese restaurant with a kid-friendly menu and games.

 

Harris said his death was almost too much to bear after losing her home in Hurricane Katrina and receiving a breast cancer diagnosis.

 

“Now I’ve got a grandson that’s not here and a son that’s being charged,” Harris said. “I couldn’t breathe. It was like I was being smothered.”

 
…

A photo published on social media reveals Elon Musk’s SpaceX Corporation is close to fielding a rocket robot.

According to Florida Today newspaper, Stephen Marr got a good view of the bot sitting on top of a SpaceX drone ship at Port Canaveral, Florida.

“I knew there was something different there,” Marr, 34, told the paper.

Marr posted the photo on Reddit where it was widely agreed to be a robot, and users on the site nicknamed it “Optimus Prime,” after a character from the movie Transformers.

The robot is expected to work on the drone ships, securing the first stage of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets, which will land on the drone ships, Florida Today reports. The robot is expected to save the company money and increase safety.

Ricky Lim, of SpaceX, told Florida Today that the robot is in a “testing phase” as a “future capability.”

“I don’t think it’s very far away” from being used, Lim told the paper. “But it’s new.”

He added that the robot has not been officially named.

SpaceX has recovered eight first stages of Falcon 9 rockets, starting in 2015. Three of those stages landed on pads at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, and five times on drone ships at sea.

SpaceX is expecting to launch another rocket from Kennedy Space Center in coming months. That mission is expected to be the first use of a used or “flight tested” Falcon 9 rocket.
…

Amputees with prosthetic limbs may soon have much a better sense of touch, temperature and texture, thanks to the energy-saving power of the sun, British researchers said on Thursday.

While prosthetics are usually fully powered using batteries, a new prototype from University of Glasgow researchers opens up the possibility for so-called “solar-powered skin,” which would include better sense capabilities than current technology.

“If an entity is going out in a sunny day, then they won’t need any battery” to activate their senses, said Ravinder Dahiya, a research fellow at the university and a leader of the study. “They can feel, without worrying about battery.”

The technology involves installing a thin layer of pure carbon around a prosthetic arm, hand or leg. This allows light to pass through it and be easily used as solar energy, the researchers said in a research paper.

The sun can provide up to 15 times more energy than is usually needed to power a prosthetic limb, Dahiya said.

This extra — and renewable — energy can be used to power sensors that increase sense and feeling in a limb, so much so that the prosthetic can feel pressure, temperature and texture like natural skin, the paper said.

“The skin is sensitive to touch and pressure, so when you touch the skin there you will know what point you are contacting and how much force you are applying,” Dahiya said, describing the prototype.

The scientists are the first to develop a model for solar-powered prosthetic skin, he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

The technology could also increase the functionality of robots, allowing them to have a better understanding of what they touch and interact with, according to Dahiya.

If robots had limbs that are sensitive to touch and pressure they would be less likely to make errors or injure humans, he said.

The researchers hope to further develop the prototype in the next two years, Dahiya said. Eventually, he hopes to power the limb’s motors with the renewable energy as well – rather than just the skin.

“Because we are saving a lot of energy, our vision is that … if we store this energy in some way we will be able to also power the motors with the energy,” he said.

“The prosthetic will be fully energy autonomous.”
…

Tyrannosaurus rex and his buddies could be on the move as a new study proposes a massive shake-up of the dinosaur family tree.

Scientists who took a deeper look at dinosaur fossils suggest a different evolutionary history for dinosaurs, moving theropods such as T. rex to a new branch of the family tree and hinting at an earlier and more northern origin for dinosaurs.

The revised dinosaur tree makes more sense than the old one, initially designed more than a century ago based on hip shape, said Matt Baron, a paleontology doctoral student at the University of Cambridge in England. He is the lead author of the study in Wednesday’s journal Nature.

“If the authors are correct, this really turns our longstanding understanding of dinosaur evolution upside down!” Kristi Curry Rogers, a paleontologist at Macalaster College in Minnesota who wasn’t part of the study, wrote in an email.

Dinosaurs are split into two groups. One group has bird-like hips and is called Ornithischia. It includes the stegosaurus. The group with reptile-like hips is called Saurischia, and includes the brontosaurus.

Theropods, which include T. rex and the type of dinosaurs that later evolved into modern-day birds, were considered an offshoot from the group that includes the brontosaurus. The new study moves them to the group that includes the stegosaurus, but on a different branch.

“It means that animals that we’ve always thought were very closely related to each other might not be,” said Rogers, who praised the study, saying it prompts a whole bunch of new questions.

Baron and colleagues looked at 450 characteristics of 75 dinosaur species. They used computer simulations to try to group together those with similar characteristics, creating tens of thousands of potential dinosaur family trees. The proposed one combines the 80 most likely scenarios, he said.

It may sound like an academic exercise, but it’s important to understand how big animals changed with time, Baron said, noting that the dinosaurs ruled Earth for more than 150 million years.

His research suggests that dinosaurs popped up 247 million years ago — 10 million years earlier than the standard theory says — with a dinosaur from Tanzania in East Africa. It’s called Nyasasaurus, was 6 to 10 feet tall and a plant-eater.

He also found an animal that’s not quite a dinosaur, but as close as you can get, that is a reptilian ancestor. And it was in Scotland. Previous theories pointed to dinosaurs first evolving out of the Southern Hemisphere, and many outside scientists said there wasn’t enough evidence to support Baron’s northern concept.

The paper is already dividing dinosaur experts. Famed dinosaur expert Paul Sereno at the University of Chicago called the basis of the Baron family tree “weak” and said “the central question the paper leaves unanswered for me is ‘Why?'”

Matthew Carrano, dinosaur curator at the Smithsonian Natural History Museum, said it’s hard to side with any theory because early dinosaur fossil records are so incomplete.
…

A discovery involving a rare California frog has researchers hopping for joy.

Nine egg masses from the California red-legged frog were discovered on March 14 in a creek in the Santa Monica Mountains, which stretch from Los Angeles westward along the Malibu coast into Ventura County.

The endangered species hasn’t been seen naturally in the mountains since the 1970s and the National Park Service has been trying to rebuild the population by transplanting eggs from a population in the nearby Simi Hills.

The discovery of new egg masses suggests that after four years of effort, the population is showing signs of sustaining itself without human help, although transplants will continue, the park service indicated.

“I was literally crying when the stream team showed me the photos of egg masses,” Katy Delaney, a National Park Service ecologist with Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area, said in a statement. “The years of work we’ve put in is showing amazing progress. There’s still plenty of work to be done, but this is a major moment for the project.”

Red-legged frogs famously appear in the Mark Twain story, The Celebrated Jumping Frog of Calaveras County.

At 2 to 5 inches long, they are the largest native frogs in the West and once were found throughout the state. However, habitat loss, pollution and the rise of nonnative species such as crayfish and predatory bullfrogs have vastly shrunk the population.

Efforts are under way to restore the species in other areas. Last year, thousands of tadpoles were released in Yosemite National Park, where the natural population vanished more than 40 years ago.

Thousands more tadpoles and adult frogs are being bred at the San Francisco Zoo & Gardens for release in the park.
…

Feel down about getting older? Wish your life was better? Worried about all the problems that come with age?

A new survey suggests you need only wait: Many pessimistic feelings held by people earlier in life take an optimistic turn as they move toward old age. Even hallmark concerns of old age — about declining health, lack of independence and memory loss — lessen as Americans age.

“The younger generation is less optimistic,” said Dr. Zia Agha, chief medical officer at West Health, a nonprofit focused on aging issues whose related research institute released the poll Wednesday with the independent research organization NORC at the University of Chicago. “Perhaps as they age they will build resilience and they build the capacity that will help them cope better.”

Generally speaking, optimism about growing older increased steadily with age, the poll found. Among people in their 30s, 46 percent described themselves as mostly or somewhat optimistic about aging, compared with 66 percent of people 70 and older. Likewise, respondents showed a decade-by-decade increase in feeling confident, not helpless, about aging, and in assessing their household finances positively.

When asked to rate their quality of life, people noted an improvement as they moved from their 50s to their 60s and beyond. Among respondents 70 and older, two-thirds rated their life excellent or very good, compared with about half of 30-somethings.

Least likely to fret about health

Among some metrics, pessimism appears to grow as people move out of their 30s into middle age before falling late in life. Those 70 and older were least likely to express worry about age bringing poor health, a move into a nursing home or memory loss. They also were least likely to fear old age could prompt them to be disrespected or become a burden on their families. People in their 60s and beyond had the lowest fear of losing their independence.

Other research has pointed to greater satisfaction, happiness and optimism among older people.

Agha said the latest survey reflected the idea that people often find in their later years a growing appreciation for facets of life they may have focused on less when they were younger, including spirituality and personal relationships. Fulfillment from those things can help bolster overall happiness, even in the face of potential physical decline.

The NORC-West Health poll also found those 70 and older were also less likely than younger people to feel that seniors are forgotten in America today or that they receive too little respect. Not surprisingly, older people were less likely to see the age of 65 as a marker of old age. About four in 10 people in their 30s regarded that number as symbolic of reaching old age, twice as large a share as those in their 70s or beyond.

The poll was based on online and telephone interviews of 3,026 adults age 30 and older who were members of NORC’s nationally representative AmeriSpeak panel. It was conducted September 19 through October 21 and had a margin of sampling error for all respondents of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
…

Scientists have developed a quick test —using a smartphone app — that a man can use in the privacy of his home to determine whether he is fertile. The sperm test could help millions of couples around the world that have tried unsuccessfully to conceive a child.

The new rapid, automated test can show within a matter of seconds whether the man’s sperm count is too low to conceive or if there are problems with motility of the sperm so the reproductive cells have trouble fertilizing a female egg.

The fertility test is an inexpensive smartphone attachment that the scientists said is made of materials which cost around $4.50. It was developed by researchers at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in the U.S. state of Utah and at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston.

 

 

 

 

95 percent accurate

John Petrozza is director of Massachusetts General’s fertility center, which used the sperm app to analyze 350 samples. The experimental test proved to be greater than 95 percent accurate in detecting problems with a man’s sperm.

Petrozza said many women wonder why they have trouble getting pregnant after months or years of trying to conceive with their partner.

“Now we have something that can screen their partner and do it reliably.  And if there’s something there, they’ll get them in to see the fertility doctor or gynecologists much sooner and I think that’s always a good thing,” he said.

The test is designed to be used at home, rather than at a clinic, in a growing field of what is known as point of care medicine.

After placing a semen sample on a slide, the user inserts it into the attachment placed on the phone, using the device’s optics to analyze the semen. The smartphone’s powerful camera is able to take both still and moving pictures of the sperm sample.

Volunteers confirm simplicity  

The app guides users through a series of simple steps for analyzing the semen. Total sperm count is measured by a miniaturized weight scale that transmits the information wirelessly to the phone.  

Researchers gave the device to 10 untrained volunteers from the Boston clinic to confirm that it is simple to use.  In that test, researchers say it correctly classified 100 semen samples for fertility.  

The male fertility analyzer was described in the journal Science Translational Medicine.

Others uses for app

Petrozza says the smartphone attachment could also be used as a follow-up test for men who’ve had vasectomies,  voluntary operations to surgically interrupt a man’s sperm flow for birth control.  

At the same time, Petrozza envisions using the device to test for venereal diseases such as gonorrhea.  And scientists are now trying to perfect the point-of-care device to test for Zika virus in sperm, which has been shown to be a reservoir for the pathogen.

An analysis of the semen’s quality and concentration, said Petrozza, is based on parameters for fertility established by the World Health Organization.

He said the American Society for Reproductive Medicine has been in contact with the world body.

“And I know that recently they’ve worked with the World Health Organization in trying to look at global infertility and trying to see how can we can bring treatment, how can we bring diagnostic tests to resource-limited countries.  And this could be a potential way to do semen analysis in a very cost-effective way,” said Petrozza.

Millions of couples struggle with fertility

An estimated 45 million couples around the world struggle with fertility.  Forty percent of the time, say experts, infertility is due to abnormal sperm.

Petrozza and colleagues are aiming to get the male sperm analyzer on the market in the next 18 to 24 months, to be sold alongside pregnancy tests.

He says they’re hoping to keep the cost of the device to anywhere from $30 to $45.
…

One in four children — 600 million in total — may live in areas with severely limited water resources by 2040, putting them at risk of deadly diseases like cholera and diarrhea, the U.N. children’s agency UNICEF said on Wednesday.

Already some 500 million children live in areas with limited water supplies, and the demand for water today far exceeds available resources in 36 countries, UNICEF said.

Supplies are expected to shrink further due to droughts, rising temperatures, flooding, population growth and urbanization, the U.N. agency said in a report.

If no action is taken to clean up and conserve water supplies, more children will be forced to drink potentially unsafe water as a result, UNICEF said.

Climate change plays a part

“Around the world, millions of children lack access to safe water — endangering their lives, undermining their health, and jeopardizing their futures,” said UNICEF executive director Anthony Lake.

“This crisis will only grow unless we take collective action now” he added in a statement.

Climate change is one of the reasons behind reduced water sources in the future, impacting “the quality and quantity of the water,” Cecilia Scharp, a senior water advisor at UNICEF, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Flooding, which is expected to increase due to rising sea levels and changing weather patterns, can pollute water supplies and spread unsafe water across wide areas. Droughts are also expected to increase in frequency and severity.

More work for women, girls

Women and girls now spend 200 million hours a day collecting water, and this will rise if they are forced to travel further to reach water sources, making them vulnerable to attack in some countries, UNICEF said.

UNICEF’s projections are based on models assuming no action is taken to conserve water and tackle pollution, Scharp said. But governments, industries, agricultural businesses and communities can help diminish the impact of climate change on children in countries pressed for water resources, the agency said.

Governments should plan for risks to water supplies from drought, rising temperatures, flooding, population growth and urbanization, Scharp said.

Reusing waste water

Businesses should ensure they are conserving as much water as possible, and reusing waste water whenever they can, UNICEF said.

“You can use economic incentives so people don’t overuse [water],” Scharp said of local governments. “You can put restrictions on … personal use of water in urban areas where a lot of water is used for lifestyle activities, more than [for] consumption.”

Poorer children will be hurt the most by a depletion of water sources in the future. This “should come as no surprise,” UNICEF said.
…

Led by cutbacks in China and India, construction of new coal-fired power plants is falling worldwide, improving chances climate goals can be met despite earlier pessimism, three environmental groups said Wednesday.

A joint report by the groups CoalSwarm, the Sierra Club and Greenpeace follows a warning this week by two international agencies that the world needs to shift quickly away from fossil fuels to curb global warming. Environmentalists were dismayed by President Donald Trump’s U.S. government budget proposal last week that would cut spending on renewable energy.

Construction starts for coal-fired plants in China and India were down by 62 percent in January from a year earlier while new facilities starting operation declined 29 percent, according to the report. It said older plants in the United States and Europe are being retired at a record pace.

‘Global climate goals’

The latest developments “appear to have brought global climate goals within feasible reach, raising the prospect that the worst levels of climate change might be avoided,” said the report.

It acknowledged “the margin for error is tight” and said sustained progress will require China and India to scrap more than 100 coal plants on which construction has been suspended. And it warned that countries, including South Korea and Indonesia, are failing to develop renewables, which could increase their need for coal power.

In a separate report, the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said falling power demand in Japan means most of the 45 new coal plants the country has planned will likely never be built.

The reports mark a shift in sentiment from six months ago, when environmentalists warned governments were doing too little to carry out the Paris climate accord. Signed by 170 countries, it calls for holding global temperature increases to no more than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) in hopes of preventing sea level rise and other drastic change.

Biggest greenhouse gas emitter

China, the biggest greenhouse gas emitter, said at that time its coal use would rise until 2030. But later data showed the peak passed in 2013 and consumption is falling.

Countries including China, Germany, India and Japan are moving away from coal as alternatives get cheaper, said Tim Buckley, the IEEFA’s director of energy finance studies.

“I don’t think Trump can stop that,” he said.

Despite such changes, the amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to a new high last year and is increasing, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Asia alone is expected to account for 70 to 80 percent of the global growth in coal-fired power capacity over the next two decades.

Industry experts cautioned that countries including India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam need to keep adding coal power because it is the only affordable option in a region where 500 million people lack access to electricity. The cost of solar and wind have fallen by up to 80 percent in some markets, but in places such as Bangladesh or parts of China it can still be double that of coal.

“We have to meet the basic needs of people while pushing for energy transition at the same time,” said Yongping Zhai, an adviser on energy to the Asian Development Bank. “You will need a mixture of different fuels. Coal will be there. You cannot avoid it.”

Canceled half its plans

China canceled half its planned additional coal-fired generating capacity over the past year but will still add 100 gigawatts by 2020, according to Xizhou Zhou, who heads the Asian gas and power practice for IHS Markit, a research firm. He said Asian countries are due to add 180 gigawatts out of a global total of 210 gigawatts.

“It’s true that we are seeing a slowdown in coal plant additions, but that doesn’t mean that demand will stop increasing or that they won’t need to build coal plants,” Zhou said.

In China, construction of power plants totaling more than 300 gigawatts was suspended following last year’s release of the latest five-year economic development plan, according to the CoalSwarm report.

On Saturday, Beijing’s last major coal-fired power plant was shut down under plans to switch the Chinese capital to gas and other power sources.

China’s power demand is cooling due to official efforts to reduce reliance on heavy industry and encourage services and technology, said Zhou. He said that might lead to higher demand in India or Southeast Asia if manufacturing of products such as smartphones that require glass, metal and other energy-intensive components migrates there.

“You have a lot of countries that could become a new manufacturing hub but still rely on coal-fired power,” he said.

No new coal-fired capacity

India’s government said in December it needed no new coal-fired capacity until at least 2027. But industry leaders expect work to resume on power projects that have been suspended.

Analysts also warn India is just setting out on a vast and energy-hungry process of building highways and other infrastructure, while China has completed that cycle.

“What happens in India is still an open question,” said Navroz Dubash of the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi think tank. “It’s important not to switch from the point of view that coal is inevitable to coal is unnecessary. I don’t think we’re there yet.”

In Japan, the amount of power generated from coal should fall by 40 percent from 2015 levels by 2030 due to lower demand and more use of alternative sources, the IEEFA report said.

“The economic arguments will win out,” said Paul Fisher, an economist at Cambridge University’s Institute for Sustainable Leadership. “Once the financial sector sees that it’s not in their interest to finance fossil fuels, we’ll get there.”
…